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Macro and Markets Dashboard: United StatesUpdated: January 28, 2017
Key Indicatorsover prev. as of:
ÿ ! Real GDP 16.8T N 1.9% 2016 Q4
ÿ ! Unemp. rate 4.7% N 0.1 Dec 2016
ÿ ! Inflation 2.1% N 0.4 Dec 2016
one week one mo.
ÿ ! S&P 500 2,294.69 N 1.0% N 1.1%
ÿ ! DJIA 20,093.78 N 1.3% N 0.7%
ÿ ! NASDAQ 5,660.78 N 1.9% N 3.2%
ÿ ! VIX 10.58 H -8.3% H -11.8%
ÿ ! 2-yr t-bond 1.22% N 0.02 H -0.06
ÿ ! 10-yr t-bond 2.49% N 0.01 H -0.08
ÿ ! Crude oil $53.17 N 1.4% H -1.4%
ÿ ! USD index 94.96 N 0.3% H -1.4%
chart: ÿ data: !
About the Dashboard
The Macro and Markets Dashboard for the United States con-tains more than 100 indicators of the performance of the U.S.economy. The dashboard includes twelve categories of charts,and a table of exchange rates.
Dashboard plots follow a uniform design. The line plots showtrends over the past decade, while the horizontal bar plots de-compose recent developments. The latest value and its referenceperiod are listed in the bottom left corner of the plot area forline plots. Below each plot is a brief listing of the source with alink (in blue) to the source data.
ECONECON
Contents
About the Dashboard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1High-frequency indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Macroeconomic Indicators: Overview . . . . . . 3Macroeconomic Indicators: Businesses . . . . . 4Macroeconomic Indicators: Households . . . . . 6Depository Corporations . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Labor Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Equity Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Money and Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Government and Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Trade and External Sector Indicators . . . . . . 19Capital Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Exchange Rate Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Contact.
Brian Dew .� briandew.wordpress.com
7 @bd econ
Chart of the week
Advance fourth quarter estimates show rebound in U.S. business investment growth
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
(Real nonresidential fixed investment, annual percent change by type)
2016 Q4: ∆ Total nonresidential investment: 0.3%
Structures Equipment Intellectual Property
∆Total
Source: FRED: Table 5.3.6. Real Private Fixed Investment by Type, Chained Dollars
While quarterly GDP growth slowed from 3.5% in Q3 to 1.9% in the BEA’s advance estimate for 2016 Q4, business investment rebounded.For 2016 as a whole, business investment growth was non-existent, a result of weak earnings growth in some sectors (e.g. mining,energy) and a general corporate preference for returning profits directly to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. By investmenttype, aggregate equipment investment, shown above in light blue, critically increased in Q4 over its Q3 level, but remains below its 2015level. In 2017, tax and trade policies, input prices, and consumption behavior will affect corporate profits, which, combined with the costof capital and perceived future business prospects, will determine investment.
briandew.wordpress.com | bd econ
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
High-frequency indicators
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
Jan 24, 2017: 2.8%
GDPNow forecast of Q4 real GDP growth (FRB Atlanta) !
an
nu
al
gro
wth
rate
0
100
200
300
400
Jan 27, 2017: 192.8
Economic policy uncertainty (Baker, Bloom, Davis) !
ind
ex
0.5
1
U.S. Treasury bill and bond yields !Two-year: Jan 27, 2017: 1.22%
One-year: Jan 27, 2017: 0.82%
Three-month: Jan 27, 2017: 0.52%per
cen
tyi
eld
3.5
4
Jan 26, 2017: 3.41
High-yield corporate bond spread (over ten-year treasury) !
ba
sis
po
ints
(10
0)
2,200
2,250
2,300 Jan 27, 2017: 2294.69S&P 500 !
ind
ex
10
12
14
Jan 27, 2017: 10.6
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) !
ind
ex
45
50
55Jan 27, 2017: $53.17
Crude oil price (WTI) !
US
Dp
erb
arre
l
Nov
22
Nov
27
Dec
02
Dec
07
Dec
12
Dec
17
Dec
22
Dec
27
Jan
01
Jan
06
Jan
11
Jan
16
Jan
21
Jan
26
126
127
128
129
Jan 20, 2017: 128.0
Trade-weighted USD, broad index !
ind
ex
| Updated: January 28, 2017 2
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Macroeconomic Indicators: Overview
Components of real gross domestic product (GDP) Real GDP growth (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
5
10
15
20Real GDP
Consumption
Investment
Gov Spend
Net ExportsReal GDP: 2016 Q4: 16.8T
(chained 2009 USD, trillion)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−10
−5
0
510 year moving average
2016 Q4: 1.9%
FRED: GDPC1; GCEC1; GPDIC1; NETEXC; PCECC96 FRED: GDPC1
Gross domestic investment (GDI) Liabilities (annual percent change by sector)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−10
0
10
20
2016 Q4 ∆GDI: 1.6%
(annual percent change by sector)
Total
Government
Businesses
Households
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2016 Q3: Total Debt: 64.1T; as % of GDP: 343.2%
Fed. Gov. State/Loc. Gov. Households
Corp bus. Non-corp. bus.
Total
FRED: Saving and Investment by Sector FRED: Financial Accounts of the United States
Retail sales excluding food (annual percent change) Inventories to sales ratio
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
101 year moving average
Dec 2016: 4.3%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20161.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5
Nov 2016: 1.38
FRED: RSXFS FRED: ISRATIO
| Updated: January 28, 2017 3
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Macroeconomic Indicators: Businesses
ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index ISM non-manufacturing business activity index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Dec 2016: 54.7
(>50 improvement; <50 deterioration)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Dec 2016: 57.2
(>50 improvement; <50 deterioration)
Quandl: ISM/MAN PMI Quandl: ISM/NONMAN NMI
Industrial production (IP) index (2012=100) IP index change, major industry groups
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
80
100
120
140
Industrial production
Total capacity
Dec 2016: 104.6
−6 −4 −2 0 2 4 6 8
Motor veh. & parts
Utilities
Comp. and electr.
Machinery
Food & bev.
Fabr. metal
Chemicals
Aero. & misc. trans.
Mining
4.7
−2
3.3
−1
0.3
−0.4
−1.5
−0.6
−5
6.6
6.2
3
1.3
0.7
−0.5
−1.8
−2
−2.8
Dec 2016
Nov 2016
FRED: INDPRO FRED: Industrial Production
Total capacity utilization (percent of capacity) Capacity utilization change, major industry groups
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
65
70
75
80
Dec 2016: 75.5
−4 −2 0 2 4 6
Motor veh. & parts
Utilities
Machinery
Mining
Fabr. metal
Chemicals
Aero. & misc. trans.
Comp. and electr.
Food & bev.
3.9
−2.8
−1.2
−1.6
0.1
−0.6
0.1
−1.1
−1.9
5.8
5.4
1.1
0.7
0
−1
−1.3
−1.4
−1.5
Dec 2016
Nov 2016
FRED: TCU FRED: Capacity Utilization
| Updated: January 28, 2017 4
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Real nonresidential fixed investment Destination of corporate profits (percent of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
(annual percent change by type)
2016 Q4: ∆ Total nonresidential investment: 0.3%
Structures
Equipment
Intell. Prop
∆Total
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 Q3 corporate profit as share of GDP: 11.5%
Retained Earnings Dividends Tax
Total
FRED: Real Private Investment by Type FRED: National Income by Type of Income
Durable goods new orders (annual percent change) Durable goods new orders by category
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−40
−20
0
20
40
New orders:durable goods
Dec 2016: 1.6%
−10 −5 0 5 10 15
All other
Metal products
Machinery
Primary metals
Comp. & electronics
Total durable goods
Appliances
Transportation equip.
5.2
5.2
−2.8
13.3
1.4
−1.9
1.7
−9.9
5.2
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.3
1.6
1
−2.1
Dec 2016
Nov 2016
FRED: DGORDER FRED: Manufacturer’s Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey
Retail sales, store vs. non-store (annual growth rate) FRBSF tech pulse index (2000=100)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15non-store share
of total
Dec 2016: Total: 4.84%; Store: 3.22%; Non-store: 1.62%
Store
Non-store
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
60
70
80
90
Dec 2016: 82.7
One month: N 0.6 %One year: N 4.2 %
FRED: RSXFS; RSNSR FRED: FTPINDM114SFRBSF
| Updated: January 28, 2017 5
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Macroeconomic Indicators: Households
Personal income (annual percent change by type) Real disposable personal income
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
Nov 2016:Total ∆: 1.1%
Wages of employees Proprietors’ income
Rental income Interest & dividends
Transfer receipts
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
10 yearmoving average
2016 Q4: 1.5%
(annual percent change)
FRED: W209RC1; A041RC1; A048RC1; PIROA; PCTR; PI FRED: A067RL1Q156SBEA
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) Real PCE by category (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
66.5
67
67.5
68
68.5
69
69.5
Nov 2016: 69.2%
(percent of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−4
−2
0
2
4
2016 Q4: 2.8%
Real PCE
Goods Services excl. housing Housing
Quandl: FRED/PCE / FRED/GDP FRED: PCE by major type of product
Real PCE on goods by type (annual percent change) Real PCE on services by type (annual percent change)
0 5 10
Recreational
Motor veh. & parts
Furnishings
Food & Beverage
All goods
Other durable goods
Other nondurable
Clothing
Gas & other energy
9.6
4.1
6.5
3.2
3.4
3.5
2
1
0.5
11.7
7.5
6
4.7
4.2
4.1
2
0.7
−1.7
2016 Q4
2016 Q3
0 1 2 3 4
Health care
Other services
All services
Food & accomodations
Transportation
Housing & Utilities
Financial and insurance
Recreation
4.3
2.4
2.5
2.8
1.2
1.5
0.9
1.9
3.7
2.6
2.2
1.9
1.5
1.4
1
0.4
2016 Q4
2016 Q3
FRED: Real PCE by Major Type of Product FRED: Real PCE by Major Type of Product
| Updated: January 28, 2017 6
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
PCE on durable goods (percent of GDP) University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
7
7.5
8
8.5
Nov 2016: 7.7%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan 2017: 98.5
Quandl: FRED/PCEDG / GDP University of Michigan Survey of Consumers
New housing starts (thousands of units) Personal savings rate (percent of disposable income)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Dec 2016: Starts: 1,226; Permits: 1,228
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
2
4
6
8
10
12
Nov 2016: 5.5%
FRED: HOUST FRED: PSAVERT
Household and nonprofits assets (annual growth rate) Net wealth as percent of gross disposable income
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
Total:2016 Q3:5.7%
Deposits
Pensions
Other
Real estate
Corp. securities
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−10
0
10
20
1-year moving average
2016 Q3: 2.3%
(households and nonprofits, annual percent change)
FRED: Flow of Funds: B101 and S3 FRED: HNONWPDPI
| Updated: January 28, 2017 7
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Depository Corporations
Value of bank loans by loan type (annual percent change) Bank assets by major type (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
All loans:2016 Q3: 6.8%
Mortgages Comm. & industrial
To individuals Other loans
All loans
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
−4
−6
−8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
All assets:2016 Q3: 6.1%
Loans Cash
Securities Other
All assets
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet
Domestic loans and deposits (annual percent change) Noncurrent loans (share of total loans)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−10
−5
0
5
10Deposits
Loans
2016 Q3:Domestic deposits: 7.6%; Domestic loans: 7.4%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1
2
3
4
30-89 days late
≥ 90 days late
nonaccrual status
2016 Q3: 30-89 days late: 0.7%;≥ 90 days late: 0.6%; nonaccrual: 0.9%
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet
Domestic deposits (annual percent change) Bank liabilities and equity capital (annual % change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 Q3: All domestic deposits: 7.6%;interest-bearing: 5.9%; noninterest-bearing: 1.7%
Noninterest-bearing Interest-bearing
All deposits
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
−4
−6
−8
−10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 Q3: Liab. and equity: 6.1%
Deposits Equity capital Other liab.
Liab. and equity
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Balance Sheet
| Updated: January 28, 2017 8
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Bank income and expense (USD billions) Bank return on equity (ROE)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−200
−100
0
100
200
300
2016 Q3: Pretax income: $66.10B
Interest expense Noninterest expense
Interest income Noninterest income
Pretax net income
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
2016 Q3: 9.7%
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Income Statement FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile
Noncurrent rate by loan type Loans to assets ratio by total bank assets
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Real Estate Loans
Total Loans & Leases
Commercial & Industrial
Credit Cards
Agricultural Production
Other Personal Loans
Leases
Auto Loans
All Other Loans
Loans to Banks
2.1
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0
2
1.5
1.3
1.2
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.2
0
2016 Q3
2016 Q2
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
40
50
60
70
< $100M
$100M–$1B$1–10B
> $10B
2016 Q3: < $100M: 59.0%;$100M–1B: 66.5%; $1B–10B: 69.0%; > $10B: 45.8%
(percent of loans)
FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Loan Performance FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile: Ratios by Asset Size Group
Labor Markets
Civilian unemployment rates (U-3 and U-6) Labor force participation rate
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
5
10
15
U3U6
U6 rate includes discouraged workers andthose part time for economic reasons
Dec 2016: U3: 4.7%; U6: 9.2%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
62
63
64
65
66
67
Dec 2016: 62.7%
FRED: UNRATE, U6RATE FRED: CIVPART
| Updated: January 28, 2017 9
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Share of unemployed by duration Nonfarm payrolls (monthly percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
10
20
30
40
50
< 5 weeks
5-14 weeks
15-27 weeks
> 27 weeks (long-term)
(percentage of total)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016−0.8
−0.6
−0.4
−0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1 year moving average
Dec 2016: +156,000 (0.1%)
FRED: Unemployed persons by duration FRED: PAYEMS
Unemployment rate by gender and education level Job openings per hire, ratio by sector1
2 4 6 8 10
< HS Diploma
HS Diploma
Bachelor’s Deg.
Advanced Deg.
< HS Diploma
HS Diploma
Bachelor’s Deg.
Advanced Deg.
9.4
4.9
2.4
1.8
8.9
5.4
2.3
2.3
6.8
4.8
2.3
1.5
7.9
5.1
2.6
1.5
Women
Men
December 2016 November 2016
December 2016 November 2016
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Manufacturing
Government
Business services
(plots show 1-yr moving average)
Nov 2016:Government: 1.48Manufacturing: 1.18Business and professional services: 0.931 Ratio of 1 means it takes 1 month to complete a new hire
FRED: Unemployment rates, 25–64 years FRED: JOLTS Openings / Hires
Payroll growth by sector (annual percent change) Payrolls (annual percent change by major category)
−12 −10 −8 −6 −4 −2 0 2 4
Educ & Health Serv
Prof & Business Serv
Financial Activities
Leisure & Hospitality
Construction
Trade Transp & Util
Other Services
Government
Information
Manufacturing
Mining & Logging
(As of: December 2016 )
2.6
2.6
1.9
1.9
1
−0.1
1.5
1.4
−0.4
−10.5
0.8
Services
Goods
Government
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−15
−10
−5
0
5
Goods
Serv.
Gov.
Dec 2016:Goods: -0.1%; Services: 2.0%; Government: 0.8%
FRED: Current Employment Statistics FRED: Current Employment Statistics
| Updated: January 28, 2017 10
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
New jobless claims (weekly, thousands) Real median weekly wage (1982–84 dollars)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan 21, 2017: 259,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
320
330
340
350
2016 Q4: 348
FRED: ICSA FRED: LES1252881600Q
Nominal average hourly wage (annual percent change) Nominal average hourly wages (USD)
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Information
Prof. & Business Serv.
Manufacturing
Mining & Logging
Trade Transp. & Util.
Educ. & Health Serv.
Other Services
3.7
2.8
2.9
2.6
2.7
1
1.8
1.8
1.2
3.8
3.2
3.1
3
2.8
2.3
1.9
1.7
1
December 2016
November 2016
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 201612
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Goods sectors
Service sectors
Dec 2016:Goods-producing: $22.83;Private-service-providing: $21.58
FRED: Average Hourly Earnings FRED: Average Hourly Earnings
Real hourly wages and output (index, 2009=100) Labor share of output (index, 2005=100)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
95
100
105
Wages
Output
2016 Q3: Wages: 105.7; Output: 106.9
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
96
98
100
102
104
2016 Q3: 100.1
FRED: COMPRNFB, OPHNFB FRED: PRS85006173
| Updated: January 28, 2017 11
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Equity Markets
S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite Index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
50 week moving average
One day: H -0.1%One week: N 1.0%
Jan 27, 2017: 2,294.69; 5.81% above moving average
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
50 week moving average
One day: N 0.1%One week: N 1.9%
Jan 27, 2017: 5,660.78; 8.69% above moving average
Quandl: YAHOO/INDEX GSPC Quandl: NASDAQOMX/COMP
Dow Jones Industrial Average (thousands) ...combined and indexed (2006=100)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
5
10
15
20
50 week moving average
Jan 27, 2017: 20,093.78; 8.00% above moving average
One day: H 0.0%One week: N 1.3%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
50
100
150
200
250
S&P
NASDAQ
DJIA
Quandl: YAHOO/INDEX DJI
S&P 500 five-year growth forecast by sector S&P 500 dividend yield (percent)
5 10 15 20
Energy
Consumer Discretionary
Information Technology
Health Care
Industrials
Materials
Financials
Consumer Staples
Real Estate
Utilities
Telecom. Services As of: Jan 26, 2017
20.4
19.4
13.1
10.8
10.1
9.8
9
8.9
8
5
4.1
2008 2010 2012 2014 20161.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2016 Q3: 2.10%
S&P Dow Jones Indices: S&P 500 growth forecasts (.xls) S&P Dow Jones Indices: S&P 500 quarterly data (.xls)
| Updated: January 28, 2017 12
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
CBOE volatility index (VIX) Shiller index of price to earnings ratios
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Jan 27, 2017: 10.6
One day: H -0.5%One week: H -8.3%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
15
20
25
30
Nov 2016: 25.9
CBOE: VIX Quandl: MULTPL/SHILLER PE RATIO MONTH
Money and Interest Rates
Effective fed funds rate Fed excess reserves of depository corporations
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
2
4
6
Jan 26, 2017: 0.66%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
(USD billion)
Jan 18, 2017: 2,008B
FRED: DFF FRED: EXCSRESNW
Components of the M2 money supply Average rate of return on M2
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
20
40
60
80
Nov 2016: Total M2/GDP: 70.2%
(Percent of GDP)
Checkable deposits
Savings deposits
CDs
Retail money funds
Currency
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Jan 2017: 0.12%
FRED: M2SL; SAVINGSL; (CURRSL + TVCKSSL);(DEMDEPSL + OCDSL); STDSL; RMFSL / GDP FRED: M2OWN
| Updated: January 28, 2017 13
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Treasury bond real yield by maturity 2- and 10-year treasury constant maturity rates
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
5-year
10-year
20-year
Jan 27, 2017: 5-year: -0.02%;10-year: 0.41%; 20-year: 0.74%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2-year
10-year
Jan 27, 2017:2yr: 1.22%; 10yr: 2.49%
Quandl: USTREASURY/REALYIELD Quandl: USTREASURY/YIELD
Treasury yield spreads Treasury bill and bond yield curve
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−1
0
1
2
3
4
10-year - 3-month
10-year - 2-year
Jan 27, 2017:10yr - 2yr: 1.27%; 10yr - 3mo: 1.97%
3 mo 1 yr 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr 20 yr
0
1
2
3
Five years ago
Year ago
Most recent
Rates as of: Jan 27, 2017
0.52
0.82
1.22
1.94
2.49
2.8
Quandl: FRED/YIELD - FRED/BILLRATES Quandl: USTREASURY/YIELD
Corporate bonds AAA (effective yield) Corporate bonds high yield (effective yield)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
2
4
6
8
Jan 26, 2017: 3.1%
One week: N 2 bpOne month: H -5 bp
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 26, 2017: 5.9%
One week: H -6 bpOne month: H -29 bp
FRED: BAMLC0A1CAAAEY FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
| Updated: January 28, 2017 14
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Corporate bonds high yield spread over AAA ... high yield spread over 10-year treasury
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 26, 2017: 2.8%
One week: H -8 bpOne month: H -24 bp
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 26, 2017: 3.4%
One week: H -10 bpOne month: H -25 bp
FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2EY - BAMLC0A1CAAAEY FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2EY - DGS10
Corporate bonds AAA spread over 10-year treasury Corporate bonds total return index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
2
4
6
Jan 26, 2017: 0.6%
One week: H -2 bpOne month: H -1 bp
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Jan 26, 2017: 2736.54
One week: H -0.09%One month: N 0.55%
FRED: BAMLC0A1CAAAEY - DGS10 Quandl: ML/TRI
Government and Policy
Total public debt by holder (percent of GDP) Economic policy uncertainty index
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016−20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2016 Q3: Total public debt to GDP: 104.8%
Foreign
Private domestic
Intragovernmental
Federal Reserve Bank
Total
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
50
100
150
200
250
Dec 2016: 122.8
FRED: GFDEBTN; FDHBFIN; FDHBFRBN; FDHBPIN Baker, Bloom, and Davis: Economic Policy Uncertainty
| Updated: January 28, 2017 15
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Government expenditures and receipts Government expenditures and receipts
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
10
20
30
40
Receipts
Expenditures
Deficit: 2016 Q3: -4.5% of GDP
Deficit
(percent of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−10
0
10
20
Exp.Rec.
Expend.: 2016 Q4: 3.7% Receipts: 2016 Q3: 2.4%
(annual percent change)
FRED: GEXPND; GRECPT FRED: GEXPND; GRECPT
Government current receipts by type Government current expenditures by type
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
10
20
30
(percent of GDP, seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Total: 2016 Q3: $5,361 Billion USD; 28.7% of GDP
Tax receipts
Social insurance contrib.
Transfers Income from assets
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
10
20
30
40
Total: 2016 Q4: $6,258 Billion USD; 33.2% of GDP
(percent of GDP, seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Consumption
Transfers
InterestSubsidies
FRED: Government Current Receipts and Expenditures FRED: Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
Prices
Consumer price index (CPI) (annual percent change) CPI components (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4
6
All-items CPICore CPI
Dec 2016: All-items CPI: 2.1%; Core CPI: 2.2%
−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Energy
Healthcare
Housing
Transportation
Other goods & serv
Recreation
Food & Beverage
Apparel
Education
1.1
4
2.9
0.4
1.8
0.9
−0.2
0.3
−0.3
5.4
4.1
3
2.5
2.1
0.8
−0.1
−0.2
−0.2
December 2016
November 2016
All-items: FRED: CPIAUCSL; Core: FRED: CPIFESL FRED: CPI Indexes
| Updated: January 28, 2017 16
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Producer price index, all commodities (PPIACO) PPIACO selected components (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−10
0
10
20
Dec 2016: 2.6%
(annual percent change)
−15 −10 −5 0 5 10
Energy
Metals
Chemicals
All-commod. PPI
Lumber & Wood
Rubber & Plastic
Farm Products
0.6
3
3.5
0.4
1.4
−0.1
−12
9.1
5.8
3.2
2.6
2
0.1
−5.7
December 2016
November 2016
FRED: PPIACO FRED: PPI Indexes
5-Year forward inflation expectation rate PCE chain-type price index (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5(expected average annual inflation rate, percent)
Jan 26, 2017: 2.22%
One week: N 4 bpOne month: N 12 bp
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−2
0
2
4All-item PCE
Trimmed-mean
Nov 2016: All-item: 1.4%; Trimmed-mean: 1.8%
FRED: T5YIFR FRED: All-items: PCEPI; Trimmed-mean: PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL
Oil price (USD per barrel, WTI) PPI growth: metals (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan 27, 2017: $53.17
One day: H -1.1%One week: N 1.4%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−10
0
10
20
Dec 2016: 5.8%
Quandl: CHRIS/CME CL1 FRED: WPU10
| Updated: January 28, 2017 17
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Average sales price for new houses (thousands of USD) FAO food price index (world, 2002–04=100)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
250
300
350
400
Dec 2016: $384,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Dec 2016: 171.8
Quandl: FRED/ASPNHSUS FAO: FFPI
Gold price (USD per ounce) Silver price (USD per ounce)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jan 27, 2017: $1,184.20
One day: H -0.6%One week: H -1.2%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
10
20
30
40
50
Jan 27, 2017: $16.70
One day: H -0.9%One week: H -1.1%
Quandl: LBMA/GOLD Quandl: LBMA/SILVER
Export and import prices (annual percent change) Import prices by locality of origin (annual percent change)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−20
−10
0
10
20Imports
Exports
Dec 2016: Exports: 1.1%; Imports: 1.8%
−4 −2 0 2 4 6 8
Canada
Japan
France
Mexico
ASEAN
U.K.
China
Germany
1.7
1.3
0.6
−0.6
−1
−2.3
−1.8
−4
7.1
1.5
0.7
0.6
−0.3
−1.7
−1.7
−4
December 2016
November 2016
FRED: Imports: IR; Exports: IQ FRED: Import Price Indexes by Locality of Origin
| Updated: January 28, 2017 18
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Trade and External Sector Indicators
Trade weighted dollar indices (1973=100) Indirect exchange rates (USD-CUR) !
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
60
80
100
120
140
Broad index
Major currencies
Jan 20, 2017: Broad: 128.0; Major: 95.0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
EUR
GBP
CAD
JPY(100)
(Units required to purchase one USD)
FRED: DTWEXM; DTWEXB Quandl: CURRFX/USD(JPY; EUR; CAD; GBP)
Current account balance components (% of GDP) Net international investment position (% of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
2016 Q3: -2.3%
Current account balance
Net goods Net services
Net income Net transfers
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
100
120
140
160
180
Liabilities
Assets
Net IIP: 2016 Q3: -41.7% of GDP
Net IIP
(percent of GDP)
FRED: Foreign transactions in the NIPAs / GDP FRED: U.S. Net IIP / GDP
Imports, exports, and trade balance (USD billion) Trade balance (goods and services, percent of GDP)
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Exports
Imports
Trade BalanceOct 2016: Exports: 186.4B;Imports: 229B; Balance: -42.6B
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
Oct 2016: -2.7%
FRED: International Trade in Goods and Services FRED: BOPGSTB / GDP
| Updated: January 28, 2017 19
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Net exports of goods (USD, millions, one-year change) Net exports of services (USD, millions, one-year change)
−4,000 −2,000 0
Food feed & bev.
Consumer goods
Other goods
Automobiles
Industrial supplies
Capital goods
Total
Goods balance:Nov 2016 : $-65,304
560
706
−26
−126
−1,034
−269
−188
209
148
141
−647
−1,504
−2,575
−4,229
Nov 2016
Oct 2016
−500 0 500
Other business
Maint. & repairs
Government
Telecom
Insurance
Travel
Financial serv.
Total
Intell. prop.
Transportation
Services balance:Oct 2016 : $20,811
606
391
−50
56
66
−350
−286
−307
−554
−188
455
261
184
30
1
−101
−200
−450
−484
−595
Oct 2016
Sep 2016
U.S. Census Bureau: U.S. International Trade in Goods FRED: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
Capital Flows
Foreign holdings of U.S. securities (annual % change) Foreign purchases and sales of U.S. securities
−10 0 10 20
Treasury bonds
Agency bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
Treasury bonds
Agency bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
−5.5
−1.2
0.9
1.1
−6.5
−0.2
2
−5.7
14.2
25.1
13.9
7.1
12.2
24.7
12.7
−1
For
eig
np
riva
teF
orei
gn
offi
cia
l
Oct 2016
Sep 2016
Oct 2016
Sep 2016
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Sales
Purch
Net
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
Nov 2016: Net purchases: 13.3B
Treasury International Capital (TIC) System Treasury International Capital (TIC) System
U.S. holdings of foreign securities (annual % change) U.S. purchases and sales of foreign securities
−30 −20 −10 0 10
Government bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
Government bonds
Corporate bonds
Corporate stocks
−20.2
−1.4
5.7
−26.7
−1.9
−2.4
10.9
7.9
12.4
9.7
5
3.8
Fin
.se
ctor
No
nfi
n.
sect
or
Oct 2016 Sep 2016
Oct 2016 Sep 2016
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Sales
Purch
Net
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
Nov 2016: Net purchases: 17.5B
Treasury International Capital (TIC) System Treasury International Capital (TIC) System
| Updated: January 28, 2017 20
Macro and Markets Dashboard: United States
Exchange Rate Table
Indirect exchange rates against the US Dollar ( USD)
Currency Rate11 day
% ch.1 week% ch.
1 month% ch.
1 year
% ch.1 yearhigh
1 yearlow Updated:
EUR 0.934 H -0.14 N 0.05 H -2.71 N 5.45 0.962 0.867 2017-01-27
GBP 0.797 N 0.38 H -1.42 H -2.65 N 13.35 0.831 0.671 2017-01-27
JPY 115.070 N 0.55 N 0.41 H -1.76 N 2.24 118.253 99.988 2017-01-27
CAD 1.315 N 0.46 H -1.33 H -3.06 H -6.08 1.406 1.253 2017-01-27
MXN 20.872 H -1.65 H -3.41 N 0.80 N 8.30 21.921 17.178 2017-01-27
AUD 1.323 H -0.31 N 0.13 H -5.19 H -6.08 1.408 1.281 2017-01-27
CNY 6.877 0.00 N 0.06 H -1.15 N 4.55 6.957 6.439 2017-01-27
CHF 0.999 H -0.08 H -0.20 H -2.92 N 2.68 1.030 0.953 2017-01-27
NZD 1.376 H -0.28 H -1.32 H -4.88 H -8.21 1.519 1.341 2017-01-27
SEK 8.849 N 0.08 H -0.16 H -3.89 N 5.38 9.404 7.965 2017-01-27
NOK 8.337 H -0.03 H -0.89 H -4.50 H -2.61 8.712 7.971 2017-01-27
DKK 6.949 H -0.16 N 0.01 H -2.70 N 5.11 7.155 6.455 2017-01-27
RUB 60.073 H -0.19 N 0.69 H -0.73 H -32.78 79.768 59.012 2017-01-27
HKD 7.758 N 0.01 N 0.03 N 0.01 H -0.41 7.792 7.753 2017-01-27
SGD 1.431 N 0.31 N 0.43 H -1.38 N 2.87 1.451 1.337 2017-01-27
TRY 3.877 N 0.51 N 2.86 N 8.81 N 24.40 3.877 2.796 2017-01-27
KRW 1177.320 N 0.61 N 0.29 H -2.76 H -1.71 1241.130 1090.050 2017-01-27
ZAR 13.458 N 0.84 H -0.98 H -2.92 H -17.58 16.160 13.222 2017-01-27
BRL 3.140 H -1.19 H -0.90 H -4.60 H -26.11 4.063 3.112 2017-01-27
INR 68.079 H -0.10 N 0.04 H -0.19 H -0.58 68.805 66.133 2017-01-27
ILS 3.769 H -0.51 H -0.81 H -2.10 H -3.17 3.912 3.738 2017-01-27
EGP 18.700 0.00 H -0.43 N 0.27 N 58.24 19.620 7.652 2017-01-27
IDR 13357.000 N 0.16 H -0.34 H -0.61 H -0.92 13667.000 12770.000 2017-01-27
THB 35.320 N 0.08 H -0.17 H -1.87 N 0.28 35.990 34.196 2017-01-27
MYR 4.430 N 0.07 H -0.29 H -1.13 N 6.99 4.496 3.835 2017-01-27
ARS 15.880 H -0.33 H -0.12 N 1.14 N 8.17 16.060 13.735 2017-01-27
COP 2927.600 H -0.39 N 0.29 H -3.30 H -15.79 3414.000 2829.000 2017-01-27
CLP 649.600 H -0.20 H -0.99 H -3.65 H -9.68 712.500 642.000 2017-01-27
Quandl: CURRFX/USD(CUR)
1 The number of units of foreign currency required to purchase one U.S. dollar.
I Contact: Brian Dew | R [email protected] | � briandew.wordpress.com | 7 @bd econ
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