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MACOORA 2009 Annual Conference Coastal Inundation/Climate Change Issues Breakout Conversation
User: What do I need now that I’m not getting? Provider: What can MACOORA do?
Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS) Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS)
Barry Stamey Director, Strategic Collaboration, Noblis
“Coastal Inundation Prediction System of Systems” (CIPSS)
Real-timeObservations
StaticDatabases
Real-timeModeling
EnsembleForecasting
Visualization & Products
Validation &Assimilation
ProductDelivery
User Engagement & Valuation
Data Management & Communications
Sys Eng – Requirements, Conops, Gap Analysis, Prototypes, Acquisition, Deploy, Sustain
Standards & Common Architecture
User Identification and Needs
Atmospheric
Water Level
Stream Flow
Bathy
Topo
Atmospheric
Hydrologic
Hydrodynamic
Precipitation
Waves
Precipitation
Waves
GIS Layers
Model Graphs
Model Vis
Uncertainty
Future?
Tides
Future?
History Rules
Other Inputs
Future?
Fcst Text
Future Research & Development
Fcst Graphs
Static Vis
Animated Vis
Winds
Atm Sensor
WL Gages
Inundation
Future?
Phone calls
Cmd Center
Future?
On Scene
Internet
Spatial and Temporal Scales and Applications across Spectrum of Societal Needs & Users
Public
Innovation >>> Rapid Prototyping Draft 2005-2008 Stamey
Future?
Future?
Filling the Gaps: Identifying opportunities and solutions• What is the user base
– To the WFO to the public– How to EMs– How to civil community
• How to express confidence/uncertainty– Credibility storm to storm– What is the probability of something happening
• Which one – whose information – do planners believe– The lay person needs to have confidence – assess validity
• How does it impact me – localize the impact– Observations are not dense enough to provide confidence and validate models– Need cheap sensors and affordable O&M
• Disclose more information about model so that users know what they are getting – Not just a simple validation
• Standards for modeling and decision making – better to move or save?
Filling the Gaps: Identifying opportunities and solutions• Roles and responsibilities – not just government
– Capabilities from all sectors– MACOORA is good opportunity to explore conops– And people still have to have confidence in the forecasts – social aspects– Heeding warnings comes with time – see it on the evening news
• Ensemble approach• Synergy between federal and commercial providers
– Pretty pictures versus state of the science• Robust standardized statistical approach
– USACE, NOAA– Model skill evaluation
• What are we actually going to provide– Who owns it and operates it– What level of detail
• Framework, conops• Communication – visualization and engagement of users
Filling the Gaps: Identifying opportunities and solutions• End to end –
– Data collection, metadata, data management– Atmospheric models for real time forcing– Real time forecast of total water including waves and runoff– Sea level rise and climate change– Mean water datum– Subsidence
• Verification and validation– LIDAR– Enough gages to validate– Variable changes in sea level
• Modeling and metadata– Temperature, flow, water quality – ecological, ecosystem