8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

1/23

Statistical Analysis of Straitsof Mackinac Line 5:

Worst Case Spill Scenarios

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, ANN ARBOR

DAVID J. SCHWAB, PH.D

MARCH 2016

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

2/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 1

!"#"$%"$' )*#'+%$% ,- !".#$"% ,- /#&0$*#& 1$*2 3

4,.%" 5#%2 !6$'' !&2*#.$,%

"#$%& '( )*+,#-. /+("(

7*".,89&"$,*

0+1 )23#%24 56 7#*8%9#* %4 2+1 35:;+? 8@

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

3/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 2

-= *

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

4/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 3

Z53 1#*+ 4E%

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

5/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 4

)E%[( 0+1 *#414 19& %9 c*25-13 25 #$5%&1P219&%9; %925 2+1 )23#%24 %*1 *5$13 41#459( B%22

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

6/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 5

•  !"#$ (' )*&)*&) ++,' 0+%4 *#41 %

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

7/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 6

Z%;:314 >]R 4+5, 2+1 +5:3]-=]+5:3 42#2%42%*#< &%423%-:2%59 56 2+141 2+311 E#3#@12134 %9

213@4 56 2+1 @1&%#9 $#

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

8/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 7

Z%;:31 >M #9& 0#- 4+5,4 2+1 E13*192 56 *#414 %9 ,+%*+ 5%< 31#*+1& # E#32%*:[]>G 4+5, 2+1 E13*192 56 *#414 2+#2 ,5:

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

9/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 8

"#$%& '( 8929:;: "669!5=;:2# JK !K "2A L C566$#B52A92F 75 92979"=6$=$"#$ n>

7#9%42%N:1 MW =4 M > n>

)1:< S+5%P /5%92 >[(L =4 L R >

Y#:-%9,#= G =4 >? L R

I31$532 [? +34 ML M? >G

/5%92 O:P S+1914 >X +34 [? RM R?

)2( C1 n>

"3:@@59& D4 n>

S5*8-:39 D4M(L =4 > n> n>

7#9%25: n> n>

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

10/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 9

"#$%& )( 8929:;: "669!5=;:2# JK !K "2A L C566$#B52A92F 75 92979"=6$=$"#$ =4 > > n>

/125481=UC#3-53 )E3%9;4 >? =4 > > n>

I1#$13 D4 >

S3544 b%[

Q%? +34 RL R? MV

0+1 C1#&

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

11/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 10

L.??? --

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

12/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 11

45

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

13/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 12

E2-2.2*&2%L

O?(>?>GUA(A;R(?V(??>H(

F+22EfUU,,,(;>L(

B1-31259. B( S(]7( #9& Z3#9^. 0( M?>R( 03#A1*253= O9#

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

14/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 13

K$J9.2%

K$J9.2 FD 0%@1 413%14 56 42#2%42%*#<

&%423%-:2%59 56 #661*21& 5E19 ,#213

#31# %9 1#*+ 56 2+1 X[? 4E%

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

15/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 14

K$J9.2 MD /35-#-%

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

16/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 15

K$J9.2 CD /35-#-% = #6213 %9%2%#< 31

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

17/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 16

K$J9.2 OD /35-#-%

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

18/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 17

K$J9.2 FQD /35-#-%

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

19/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 18

K$J9.2 FGD /13*192 56 *#414 %9 ,+%*+ 5%< %4 E314192 #2 "23  2%@1 #6213 %9%2%#< 31? =4H 25 #

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

20/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 19

K$J9.2 FMD /35-#-% ;@U@M #6213 G?

=4 635@ #9= 4E%

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

21/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 20

K$J9.2 FCD /35-#-% ;@U@M #6213 G?

=4 635@ #9= 4E%

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

22/23

 

University of Michigan Water Center • www.graham.umich.edu/water 21

K$J9.2 FOD 0%@1 413%14 56

42#2%42%*#< &%423%-:2%59 56

8/18/2019 Mackinac Line 5: Worst Case Spill Scenarios

23/23

The Water Center engages researchers, practitioners, policymakers,

and nonprofit groups to support, integrate, and improve current andfuture freshwater restoration and protection efforts. The Water Center

conducts collaborative science, supporting Great Lakes restoration and

coordinates the National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS)

Science Collaborative. The Water Center is part of the U-M Graham

Sustainability Institute, which fosters sustainability through translational

knowledge, transformative learning, and institutional leadership.

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN BOARD OF REGENTS

Michael J. Behm, Grand Blanc; Mark J. Berstein, Ann Arbor;

Laurence B. Deitch, Bloomfield Hills; Shauna Ryder Diggs, Grosse

Pointe; Denis Ilitch, Bingham Farms; Andrea Fischer Newman, Ann

A b A d C Ri h G P i t P k K th i E Whit A