8
Maciej Bukowski Institute for Structural Research November 27, 2012 Instytut Badań Strukturalnych 1 Energy security and decarbonisation - CEE context -

Maciej Bukowski - ies.be Maciej Bukowski.pdf · Maciej Bukowski Institute for Structural Research November 27, 2012 Instytut Badań Strukturalnych 1 Energy security and decarbonisation

  • Upload
    doantu

  • View
    215

  • Download
    1

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Maciej Bukowski

Institute for Structural Research

November 27, 2012

Instytut Badań Strukturalnych 1

Energy security and decarbonisation - CEE context -

Energy security

1. Security through resource control,

2. Security through competitive market,

3. Security through technology,

4. Security through diversity.

Resource control - gas and oil -

1. Most of the Central and Eastern Europe states do not control the supply of natural gas and oil

• 70% of natural gas in Poland is imported from Russia

• 80%-97% of oil is imported in most CEE states (Romania 40%)

2. Shale gas can probably within 20 years change this picture significantly, especially in Poland but also in the other countries (Bulgaria ?),

3. Investments in the LNG terminal in Świnoujście (Poland) – 5-7.5bln m3 (50% of Polish consumption) will after 2015 improve the CEE gas security by enhancing the access to international gas markets,

4. Investements in pipeplines and interconnectors between CEE states should follow in order to improve the security of the entire region

Resource control - electricity generation -

1. Electric energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels (coal and lignite but also natural gas)

• about 92% of power production in Poland (coal and lignite)

• about 65% in Czech Rep (coal dominated),

• about 55% in Hungary (gas dominated),

• about 25% in Slovakia.

2. Domestic resources of fossil fuels for power generation are dominant in Czech Rep and Poland although the role of import rises

3. Nuclear power plants are present everywhere except Poland

4. RES play rather limted role with an exception of Slovakia (large hydro)

5. Much space and need for diversification

Competitive market - problems -

1. CEE energy markets are separated not only from each other but also from the rest of Europe

2. This is due to the: • Insufficient infrastructure investment (pipelines, connections,

terminals)

• Monopolized (oligopolized) market structure (CEZ, PGNiG)

• Long term contracts with Gazprom

• Limited TPA unable to change the market signifficantly.

3. This should be overcomed on the EU level and multilateral co-operation

Technology - decarbonisation opportunity -

1. As of 2012 - RES play limited role in CEE energy mix,

2. Despite large progress in the last 2 decades signifficant EEF improvements are still to be gained

3. Strategically it is much more secure to import technology than fossil fuel

4. Therefore one can look on the decarbonisation policy as an opportunity that can improve the overall energy security of the CEE states

Energy security - EU and CEE challenges -

1. How to keep the energy price cheap? (USA challenge) shale gas <-> infastructure <-> market <-> generation investments

2. How to agree interests of different member states with respect to energy and decarbonization policy? (solidarity challenge)

Technology and cohesion policy nexus

3. Can the integrated energy market be efficiently developed under the auspices of the EC? (integration challenge)

Single market will never be completed with such diversified energy prices as today.

Instytut Badań Strukturalnych 8

Thank you for your attention!