M40 J10 / A43 Desktop Study Reportmodgov.southnorthants.gov.uk/documents/s8528/A43... · Oxfordshire almost doubled between 2007 and 2011 from 5.4% to 9% and simultaneously infrastructure

M40 J10 / A43 Desktop Study Report

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Page: 1 of 27 Doc. 363 March 2005

F:\TP\PROJECT\Traffic - HASPA\6000 - Studies\6027 - A43 - M40 J10 Modelling\2 - Tech Notes\131217 6027 TN1 Rev 1.docx

Project: Highways Agency Spatial Planning Arrangement Job No: 60289542

Subject: Review of Growth Forecasts and Model Assets Date: 19th

December 2013

HA ref: EM 115.01 13/14 Task: 6027

1. Introduction

The need for a study at M40 J10 was identified by AECOM due to a lack of knowledge about the overall

quantum of growth planned in the areas surrounding M40 J10 and the potential impact of this growth on

the operation of the A43 and M40 J10. It is known that Brackley, Silverstone, Towcester, Bicester,

Banbury and Oxford are growth areas; however, the junction is close to the boundary of two HA areas

(Area 7 East Midlands and Area 3 Oxon and Bucks) and consequently neither area has a

comprehensive understanding of all of the development pressures affecting this part of the Strategic

Road Network (SRN). The M40 corridor through J10 is managed through a DBFO contract and the

junction is close to the boundary of South Northamptonshire Council and Cherwell District Council.

The purpose of this study is to map out the development growth proposals affecting M40 J10 up to 2031

with a view to developing a suitable platform for the assessment of growth proposals. This Study Report

details the strategic development sites within the study area, including the type of development and the

resultant trip generation, and forecasts the level of impact on the A43 and M40 J10. It is anticipated that

this information will be taken forward to a second phase to evaluate the impacts of the growth proposals

using the Agency’s VISSIM model and to develop and assess mitigation options which could be fed into

the optioneering and scheme prioritisation phase of the Route Based Strategy (RBS) work.

Figure 1: Study Area Location Map

A-One+ have recently secured funding for a pinch point scheme for M40 J10 to be delivered by March

2015 to address immediate operational issues at the junction. The scheme has been developed to


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deliver value for money and accommodate traffic at the year of opening but has not been assessed to

accommodate future growth beyond this horizon. Consequently, the potential operational impacts of

development growth beyond 2015 are not fully understood.

M40 J10 is also currently being considered by Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB, Area 3 consultants) who are

leading on the A34 / A43 Route Based Strategies (RBS) work currently being undertaken by the Agency.

Planning data was collated and mapped by PB for the Oxfordshire Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP)

area and by AECOM (East region) for the South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership (SEMLEP)

area to inform RBS workshops undertaken in these areas during October 2013. These growth maps

have formed the initial basis of AECOM’s desktop study of M40 J10.

2. Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEP)

Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) are voluntary partnerships between local authorities and

businesses aimed at identifying local economic priorities and delivering growth within the local area. The

initial RBS evidence gathering work has been defined by the LEP areas to ensure that the issues and

challenges identified take account of local growth challenges and priorities. The three LEP areas of

relevance to this study are the Oxfordshire LEP, SEMLEP and Northamptonshire LEP.

2.1 Oxfordshire LEP

The Oxfordshire LEP was launched in March 2011 to champion and develop the Oxfordshire economy.

Their focus for growth is commercial opportunities is Bicester, Oxford and Science Vale UK which is

located in the southern Oxfordshire area and embraces the two largest employment centres (Harwell

Oxford and Milton Park) and Didcot.

The Oxfordshire LEP Local Business Plan for Growth 2013 states that congestion on main routes in

Oxfordshire almost doubled between 2007 and 2011 from 5.4% to 9% and simultaneously infrastructure

spend declined due to schemes being delayed or abandoned. The Business Plan proposes to set out a

10 year review on infrastructure needs in Oxfordshire and develop and evaluate investment alternatives

(such as East-West Railway, Heathrow access rail link and third runway at Heathrow) in a bid to:

Halve congestion and peak junction delays by 2020;

Deliver 24,800 new homes in Bicester, Oxford and Science Vale by 2031 (as committed in the

Local Plan); and

Grow science based business within the innovation hubs in Science Vale and Oxford.

The Oxfordshire Local Investment Plan identifies several strategic transport schemes which it considers

are necessary to support development in the short term. Those which are relevant to this study include:

Access to Oxford – now being pursued as separate schemes for Oxford Northern Gateway and

A34 Route Management Strategy

Banbury priority north-south vehicular corridor

Bicester park and ride – under development and due for delivery by 2014

M40 Junction 9 improvements

South west Bicester perimeter road – completed 2012

Bicester transport improvements – Bicester Movement Strategy under development for approval

2014

Accessing Science Vale UK transport package

Chiltern Railways Evergreen 3 Project (Oxford to London) – due for delivery by 2016

East-West Rail (western section) – due for delivery 2017


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Delivery of new transport schemes is now funded through the Oxfordshire Local Transport Board for

local major schemes and the Oxfordshire LEP for schemes included within the emerging Local Growth

Deal. The Oxfordshire LEP has been awarded a notional allocation of €19.4m (£16.3m) European

Structural Investment Funds (ESIF) for the period 2014 to 2020 allocated equally from two funding

streams including the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) to support innovation and

business and the European Social Fund (ESF) to support social inclusion and skills development. The

LEP is currently preparing a strategy (Oxfordshire ESIF) that will set out how the funding will be

allocated against the priorities of the LEP and its partners. The final draft of this document is due to be

prepared by the end of January 2014 with funding available from July 2014.

Simultaneously, the Oxfordshire LEP is preparing the Oxfordshire Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) which

will be the overarching economic strategy for Oxfordshire and will form the basis of the Growth Deal

negotiations with Government and determine Oxfordshire’s Local Growth Fund allocation from April

2015. It is understood an initial outline of the SEP was presented to the Steering Group on 25th October

2013 and that the LEP will be undertaking public consultation on the SEP in January / February 2014

before the final strategy is submitted to Government in March. Growth Deal negotiations will then be

completed by July 2014 with a single Local Growth fund offer, from the £2bn fund available nationally,

made to the LEP thereafter.

2.2 South East Midlands LEP

SEMLEP was launched in May 2011 to ‘promote the South East Midlands as a prime growth location for

business, investors and visitors’ with a focus on private sector led growth and inward investment. The

SEMLEP Infrastructure Investment Plan amalgamates the quantum of residential and business

development in the SEMLEP area, as defined in adopted and emergent Core Strategies and Local

Plans, and identifies the key strategic infrastructure required to support this growth including the case for

investment and potential funding mechanisms. One of the key challenges identified is the need to better

balance homes and jobs in the SEMLEP area to reduce out commuting.

The SEMLEP Local Investment Plan identifies several strategic transport improvements which it

considers are necessary to deliver the quantum of housing, employment and town centre renewal

proposed. The only schemes of relevance to this study (in addition to those identified by the Oxfordshire

LEP Business Plan) are the proposed Towcester Southern Relief Road which is due to be delivered by

2017 and the Silverstone access onto the A43 which will be delivered in conjunction with the Silverstone

Circuit development.

From 2015 onwards, expenditure on local major transport schemes will be managed by the new Local

Transport Board (LTB). In the SEMLEP area, there is a LTB covering the four unitary authorities of

Milton Keynes, Bedford, Central Bedfordshire and Luton and a further three LTBs for Buckinghamshire,

Northamptonshire and Oxfordshire which cover part of the SEMLEP area. In February 2012, SEMLEP

received a £18.7m allocation from the Growing Places Fund. The majority of this funding has been

allocated to fund infrastructure projects including delivery of the Silverstone Masterplan. It is understood

that the SEMLEP Infrastructure Investment Plan is under continuous review and will be updated on a six

monthly basis.

2.3 Northamptonshire LEP

Northamptonshire Enterprise Partnership (NEP) is working with the County Council to promote

Northampton’s prime location at the heart of the UK served by road, rail and air to potential businesses

and investors.


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NEP have been awarded over €55 million of European funding and over £50 million growth deal money

up to 2020 which will be partly invested in seven key investment sites, including:

Silverstone Park – a flagship site to broaden the scope of existing Formula One facilities;

Waterside Enterprise Zone - the largest enterprise zone in the UK, which is anticipated to attract

400 new business and deliver 17,000 new jobs by 2021 and see a £330 million relocation of

Northampton University;

Prologis DIRFT – an already significant logistics hubs with major growth potential;

Kettering East – offering 50 hecatres of employment land for office and industrial premises;

Rockingham Park, Corby – which is focused on manufacturing and engineering companies;

Stanton Cross Urban Extension, Wellingborough – a mixed use development site comprising

industrial, office, distribution and retail spaces;

Warth Park, East Northamptonshire – a 32 hectare logistics and distribution site.

In addition, innovation and enterprise centres have been set up at four sites across Northamptonshire to

encourage new businesses in to the region and to allow them to grow.

The key growth sector in Northamptonshire is High Performance Technologies (HPT) which specialises

in the design and manufacture of innovative technologies, engines and products. There are over 800 of

these businesses already located in the county, attracted by its legacy and expertise in motorsport. The

county’s food and drink sector is another key employer with several internationally recognised brands as

well as smaller innovative businesses located within Northamptonshire.

Several funding initiatives have been set up by NEP to encourage inward investment into the county. In

2011, Northamptonshire was allocated a £5.8 million share of the Government’s Growing Places fund

aimed at facilitating economic growth and removing infrastructure constraints to create new jobs and

homes. This money has now been allocated across a range of public and private led projects. A

Northamptonshire HPT Investment Programme was launched in 2013 (part funded by the Government’s

Regional Growth Fund (RGF) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)) to offer eligible

HPT businesses grants of up to £100,000. Other funds including INV-ENT and Locate are available to

all sectors to encourage new businesses to start up and existing businesses to relocate to the county.

The Northamptonshire Local Transport Body (NLTB) is a voluntary partnership between NEP and

Northamptonshire County Council (NCC) formed to administer Local Major Transport Scheme Funding

which is to be devolved by the Department for Transport (DfT) from April 2015. The primary role of the

NLTB will be to prioritise funding, review and approve business cases for investment and ensure

effective programme delivery. A list of three prioritised schemes for the funding period 2015/6-2018/9

was submitted to the DfT in July 2013 but none of these schemes fall within the M40 J10 study area.

3. Existing Issues

Planning data collated to inform the RBS in Northamptonshire and Oxfordshire identified several

residential, employment and mixed use development sites around the growth areas of Brackley,

Silverstone, Bicester, Banbury and Oxford and in the vicinity of the A43 and M40 J10. Key local

stakeholders and road user groups were invited to attend workshops in Kettering, Northamptonshire on

8th October 2013 and Oxford on 11

th October 2013 to compile an evidence base to justify the future

investment case. The outcomes have been compiled in two reports:

‘Highways Agency Route Based Strategy: South East Midlands and Northamptonshire LEPs

Stakeholder Workshop dated October 2013, prepared by AECOM.

‘Highways Agency Route Based Strategy Stakeholder Engagement Oxford Engagement Event’

dated October 2013, prepared by PB.


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The route of most relevance to this study is the Solent to Midlands corridor which covers the A43

between M1 J15a south of Northampton and M40 J10 near Bicester, as well as a section of the A34

between M40 J9 (near Bicester) and Oxford.

With regard to M40 J10 specifically it was noted that a new junction layout is required to facilitate growth

as the current layout is inefficient, highly constrained and leads to substantial delays. It was identified as

being a very high priority by delegates at the Oxford workshop as M40 J10 (along with J9) is a constraint

to future development in the Motorsport Valley and North Oxfordshire. Delegates at the Kettering

workshop also identified congestion at M40 J10 and the section of the A43 between the M40 and

Brackley as suffering from existing capacity and operational issues.

In relation to the A43 it was noted that this is an important growth corridor particularly in relation to the

motorsport industry. The A43 Tove and Abthorpe roundabouts around Towcester already experience

high levels of congestion and operational issues (particularly north-south and around the village of

Stonebrew) and there is no spare capacity to accommodate growth. Additionally, it was noted that the

A43 operates as a transfer route between the M40 and the M1. However, regional management of this

diversion route seems poor and it does not have effective VMS to enable the efficient re-routing of

traffic. Across the network, small incidents create big problems as a lack of capacity means there is no

resilience as emergency services try to access incidents.

The pinch point scheme to be delivered at Tove by March 2015 will help ease immediate congestion

issues but problems will build in the future as a result of planned growth around Towcester and

Silverstone. Unfortunately the Abthorpe roundabout failed to get pinch point funding; there are schemes

planned to improve the network around Towcester but funding for these have not yet been agreed.

Delegates at the Kettering workshop discussed the potential need for a Towcester Relief Road to ease

pressure in the town centre and on the A43. A representative from South Northamptonshire Council

indicated that the maps produced by the HA to inform the workshop suggest that there are potential

economic benefits from congestion relief in this location and the Towcester Transport Study provides

evidence to support a relief road between the A43 and A5. It is understood that the Local Authorities are

attempting to deliver a bypass through a Sustainable Urban Extension (SUE) located on the southern

side of Towcester but this development cannot deliver the entire infrastructure required to deliver an

effective Towcester bypass.

Delegates at the Oxford workshop raised that there is poor dialogue between the HA and the Midlands

Local Authorities and the substantial growth between Oxfordshire and the Midlands does not appear to

be recognised; consequently, anecdotal evidence indicates housing and business development is being

refused due to a lack of capacity. It was noted by both workshop groups that RBS needs to recognise

the wider geographical context and the strategic nature of routes. Decision making needs to be better

integrated between central and local decision makers to prioritise schemes, coordinate improvements to

maximise benefits and avoid / reduce traffic displacement and better coordinate with the LEPs Strategic

Economic Plans and EU funding. It was raised that there are several pinch point schemes which were

not allocated funding but should be considered as part of the RBS process.

4. Development Growth and Traffic Generation Forecasts

AECOM have used the ‘Anticipated Growth in Housing and Jobs’ maps for Oxfordshire LEP and

SEMLEP as a basis for determining the quantum and type of development likely to be delivered in each

of the growth areas. As these maps were prepared by the HA in conjunction with their regional

development control planning consultants, these maps were considered to provide a robust basis on


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which to undertake this study. The quantum of housing and employment development has been cross

referenced with Local Development Framework (LDF) documents prepared by each of the local

authorities within the study area and planning application submissions. Where the land use mix,

quantum of each land use class and forecast number of jobs has not been provided assumptions have

been made by AECOM based on TRICs, comparable local sites and typical employment densities

specified in the Employment Densities Guide (2nd

Edition 2010) prepared by Drivers Jonas Deloitte on

behalf of OffPAT and the Homes & Communities Agency.

AECOM have compared their growth figures to the growth assumptions included in TEMPRO to 2031.

This future year was selected as it coincides with the longest LDF strategy horizon of all of the areas

assessed. AECOM understand that TEMPRO is based on adopted LDF Strategy documents and

therefore growth identified in draft Plans is not included. Consequently, AECOM have manually adjusted

the growth assumptions contained in TEMPRO based on the following methodology:

Where AECOM’s growth assumptions are significantly higher than TEMPRO (as a result of

unadopted Plans), the growth assumptions in TEMPRO have been manually adjusted to

assume no new housing or jobs to 2031 to derive economic growth only figures. The figures for

housing and jobs calculated by AECOM have been added to create growth figures.

Where TEMPRO growth figures for houses, jobs or both are higher than AECOM’s and the

TEMPRO location boundary is a similar size to the area assessed by AECOM, the residual

growth in housing and/or jobs assumed in TEMPRO above that estimated by AECOM has been

added to AECOM’s housing and job growth figures. The growth assumptions in TEMPRO have

been manually adjusted to assume no new housing or jobs to 2031 to derive economic growth

only figures.

Where TEMPRO growth figures for houses, jobs or both are higher than AECOM’s and the

TEMPRO location boundary is significantly larger than the area assessed by AECOM (for

example in rural areas), a judgement has been made as to the amount of residual growth

assumed in TEMPRO above that estimated by AECOM which may be delivered in the area

assessed by AECOM. This has then been added to AECOM’s housing and job growth figures

and the growth assumptions in TEMPRO have been manually adjusted to assume no new

housing or jobs to 2031 to derive economic growth only figures.

The forecast traffic generation of development in each area has been derived based on the following

methodology:

The vehicle trip generation potential of the residential uses has been calculated using generic

TRICS all person trip rates multiplies by location specific vehicle mode shares derived from

Census 2011 and 2012 National Travel Survey (NTS) data.

The vehicle trip generation potential of the employment uses has been quantified by multiplying

the forecast number of jobs by 90% to account for not all employees working simultaneously

(due to illness, holidays or shift work) multiplied by the mode shares derived from the Census

2011 and 2012 NTS.

It should be noted that the Census 2011 mode share data does not distinguish between the

mode share of the resident and daytime (employee) populations like the Census 2001.

However, as the Census 2001 data is 12 years old it was considered that the Census 2011

would more accurately reflect current mode share for all trip types despite there being no

distinction between the mode share or residents and employees.

The distribution of residential and employment trips has been derived from Census 2001 journey

to work data as it is available for the respective resident and daytime population of each town /

city / area. Whilst it is recognised that this data is superseded, equivalent data from the Census

2011 is unavailable. Traffic has been assigned hierarchically on the basis that strategic and

major routes will be most favourable. This has been used to determine the peak hour level of

impact of development growth on M40 J10 and the two A43 junctions to the north.


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The forecast quantum, type and resultant trip generation of development by area is discussed in more

detail in the following sections.

4.1 Banbury

Cherwell’s Proposed Local Plan Submission (August 2012) sets out the districts vision and strategy for

development to 2031. The aspiration in Banbury is to further diversify the town’s economy to attract

more highly skilled businesses and increase levels of education and training to remain competitive.

Figure 2 shows the spatial distribution of strategic development sites identified for Banbury within the

draft Local Plan.

Figure 2: Banbury Strategic Development Sites Map

(reproduced from Cherwell District Draft Submission Local Plan)

Table 1 summarises the level of employment and residential development proposed on each of the

residential, employment and mixed use sites; those of relevance to this study include Sites 1-6. The

forecast numbers of dwellings and jobs have been derived using the methodology set out in Section 4.


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Site

Employment Residential

Area

(ha) Use Class Jobs

Area

(ha)

No.

Dwellings

%

Affordable

1. Banbury Canalside 25

15,000m2 town

centre uses excl.

B use class

790-

940

1,050

(70% houses

& 30% flats)

30%

2. Hardwick Farm, Southam Road

(East & West) - - - 43 800 30%

3. West of Bretch Hill - - - 14 400 30%

4. Bankside Phase 1

(planning consent 05/01337/OUT

and 09/00939/F)

- - - 1,092 dwellings under construction

4. Bankside Phase 2 to be negotiated 13 400 30%

5. North of Hanwell Fields - - - 11.5 400 30%

6. Employment Land West of M40 24.5 63,000m

2

B1 / B2 / B8 1,000 - - -

Other TEMPRO Growth 786 - - -

Table 1: Summary of Strategic Development Sites in Banbury included in Cherwell District Draft

Submission Local Plan and mapped in Figure 2

The development sites in Banbury are anticipated to deliver 4,142 dwellings and up to 1,940 jobs.

AECOM have compared these figures to the growth assumptions included in TEMPRO. TEMPRO

assumes an increase of 4,055 households and 2,726 jobs in Banbury during the Plan period between

2011 and 2031. As the number of jobs forecast by TEMPRO is higher, AECOM have included an

additional 786 jobs in their assessment.

AECOM have calculated the potential vehicle trip generation of the residential uses using generic TRICS

all person trip rates divided by location specific vehicle mode shares of 49% for the AM peak and 48%

for the PM peak derived from Census 2011 and 2012 NTS data. The vehicle trip generation potential of

the employment uses has been quantified by multiplying the forecast number of jobs by 90% to account

for not all employees working simultaneously (due to illness, holidays or shift work) multiplied by the

mode shares derived from the Census 2011 and 2012 NTS. The resultant cumulative generations are

summarised in Table 2.

Use AM Peak PM Peak

Arr Dep Total Arr Dep Total

Residential 313 818 1,130 771 447 1,219

Employment 1,022 180 1,202 177 1,001 1,178

Total Vehicle Trip Generation 1,334 998 2,333 948 1,448 2,396

Based on mode share of 49% for the AM peak and 48% for the PM peak derived from Census 2011 and 2012 NTS data.

Table 2: Vehicle Trip Generation of Sites in Banbury

The likely distribution of traffic from these sites has been estimated using Census 2001 journey to work

data. The distribution of traffic from residential developments has been estimated based on journey to

work data for the resident population of Banbury. The distribution of traffic from the employment uses

has been calculated based on the daytime population of Banbury. These distributions have then been

used to determine the total quantum of traffic likely to impact within the study area (at M40 J10 and the

A43 to the north of the junction), as summarised in Table 3.


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Route

AM Peak PM Peak

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

M40 N A43 N

M40 S 5% 57 3% 35

A43 N M40 N

M40 S

M40 S M40 N 3% 36 5% 61

A43 N

Total 93 96

Table 3: Vehicle Trip Distribution from Sites in Banbury

From this information it can be determined that 93 and 96 vehicle trips from strategic development sites

in Banbury will impact at M40 J10 during the respective AM and PM peaks. This will be in addition to

blanket background economic only growth of 15% calculated from TEMPRO.

4.2 Bicester

In Bicester, there is currently a significant imbalance between homes and jobs and consequently out-

commuting is a problem. The vision set out in the draft Local Plan is for Bicester to become an important

economic centre in its own right and to become a more attractive place to live and work becoming self-

sustaining economically and socially. Figure 3 shows the spatial distribution of strategic development

sites identified for Bicester within the draft Local Plan.

Figure 3: Bicester Strategic Development Sites Map

(reproduced from Cherwell District Draft Submission Local Plan)


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sites; those of relevance to this study are Sites 1-4 and 10-12. The forecast numbers of dwellings and

jobs have been derived using the methodology set out in Section 4.

The development sites in Bicester are anticipated to deliver 9,331 dwellings and more than 17,013 jobs.

AECOM have compared these figures to the growth assumptions included in TEMPRO. TEMPRO

assumes an increase of 3,066 households and 1,378 jobs in Bicester during the Plan period between

2011 and 2031. The TEMPRO figures are significantly below the levels of growth forecast by AECOM

which would suggest that TEMPRO has not been updated to reflect the latest LDF growth proposals.

AECOM’s figures have therefore been used in the assessment.

Site


Area

(ha) Use Class Jobs

Area

(ha) No. Dwellings

%

Affordable

1. NW Bicester Eco Town 25.5 Sustainable

lifestyle 5,000 5,000 30%

2. Graven Hill 26 B1 / B2 / B8 2,470 55 1,900 30%

3. SW Bicester Phase 1 – Kingsmere

(planning consent 06/00967/OUT &

11/01052/OUT)

- - - 1,631 dwellings under construction

3. SW Bicester Phase 2 2.8 B1 370 21 650 30%

4. Bicester Business Park 17.5 B1 3,850 - - -

10. Bicester Gateway 7.5 B1 990 - - -

11. NE Bicester Business Park 2.7 B1 1,092 - - -

12. East Bicester 18 Primarily B1 +

some B2 / B8 3,241 22 150 30%

Table 4: Summary of Strategic Development Sites in Bicester included in Cherwell District Draft Submission

Local Plan and mapped in Figure 3








Use AM Peak PM Peak


Residential 790 2,068 2,859 1,919 1,113 3,032

Employment 7,158 1,263 8,421 1,217 6,898 8,115

Total Vehicle Trip Generation 7,949 3,331 11,280 3,136 8,011 11,147


Table 5: Vehicle Trip Generation of Sites in Bicester



work data for the resident population of Bicester. The distribution of traffic from the employment uses

has been calculated based on the daytime population of Bicester. These distributions have then been

used to determine the total quantum of traffic likely to impact at M40 J10 and the A43 to the north of the

junction, as summarised in Table 6.


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Route

AM Peak PM Peak

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

M40 N A43 N

M40 S 4% 337 16% 485

A43 N M40 N

M40 S 3% 253 3% 91

M40 S M40 N 16% 457 4% 325

A43 N 3% 86 3% 243

Total 1,133 1,144

Table 6: Vehicle Trip Distribution from Sites in Bicester

From this information it can be determined that 1,133 and 1,144 vehicle trips from strategic development

sites in Bicester will impact at M40 J10 during the respective AM and PM peaks. This will be in addition

to blanket background economic only growth of 15% calculated from TEMPRO.

4.3 Upper Heyford

A large mixed use development is planned at the former RAF Upper Heyford site which has been

allocated for residential led mixed use development since 1996. The site lies to the southwest of M40

J10 and has been earmarked for 760 residential dwellings and B use class development. Figure 4

shows the location of the former RAF Upper Heyford site while Table 7 summarises the level of

employment and residential development proposed.

Site


Area

(ha) Use Class Jobs

Area

(ha) No. Dwellings

%

Affordable

5. Former RAF Upper Heyford

(planning consent 08/00716/OUT) B1 / B2 / B8 1,777 1,075 30%

Table 7: Summary of Former RAF Heyford Site included in Cherwell District Draft Submission Local Plan

and mapped in Figure 3

A total of 1,075 dwellings and 1,777 jobs

are proposed to be delivered at RAF

Upper Heyford. AECOM have compared

these figures to the growth assumptions

included in TEMPRO which assumes an

overall increase of 3,412 households and

1,398 jobs in the rural areas of Cherwell

during the Plan period between 2011 and

2031. The TEMPRO figure for housing

growth exceeds the number of dwellings

proposed at Upper Heyford. However, as

the TEMPRO area (Cherwell rural) covers

all rural areas of Cherwell outside of the

towns of Banbury, Bicester, Kidlington

and Bloxham it is considered unlikely that

any significant additional housing growth

(above that identified by AECOM) will be

delivered in locations around Upper

Heyford.

Figure 4: Former RAF Upper Heyford Site Map (reproduced

from Cherwell District Draft Submission Local Plan)


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The number of jobs proposed at Upper Heyford exceeds that forecast by TEMPRO. AECOM’s figures

for housing and jobs have therefore been used in the assessment.






mode shares derived from the Census 2011 and 2012 NTS. The resultant generations are summarised

in Table 8.

Use AM Peak PM Peak


Residential 104 273 377 254 148 402

Employment 856 151 1,008 146 829 976

Total Vehicle Trip Generation 961 424 1,385 401 977 1,378


Table 8: Vehicle Trip Generation of former RAF Upper Heyford

The likely distribution of traffic from this site has been estimated using Census 2001 journey to work

data. The distribution of traffic from the residential development has been estimated based on journey to

work data for the resident population of Upper Heyford. The distribution of traffic from the employment

uses has been calculated based on the daytime population of Upper Heyford. These distributions have

then been used to determine the total quantum of traffic likely to impact at M40 J10 and the A43 to the

north of the junction, as summarised in Table 9.

Route

AM Peak PM Peak

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

B430

(Local)

M40 N 18% 68 21% 205

A43 N 7% 26 14% 137

M40 S 28% 106 21% 205

M40 N B430

(Local)

21% 212 18% 72

A43 N 14% 141 7% 28

M40 S 21% 212 28% 113

Total 764 759

Table 9: Vehicle Trip Distribution from the former RAF Upper Heyford site

From this information it can be determined that 764 and 759 vehicle trips from the former RAF Upper

Heyford site will impact at M40 J10 during the respective AM and PM peaks. This will be in addition to


4.4 Oxford

The Oxford Core Strategy 2026 was adopted on 14th March 2011 and sets out the spatial planning

framework for the development of Oxford up to 2026. Oxford is a compact city with constrained land

availability and the Core Strategy seeks to deliver sustainable growth whilst protecting the historic

environment by reducing the need to travel, regenerating brownfield sites and balancing housing and

employment growth. Figure 5 shows the spatial distribution of strategic development sites identified for

Oxford within the Core Strategy.


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Figure 5: Oxford District Areas Development Distribution Map

(reproduced from Oxford Core Strategy 2026)


residential, employment and mixed use sites which are of relevance to this study. The forecast numbers

of dwellings and jobs have been derived using the methodology set out in Section 4.

The development sites in Oxford are anticipated to deliver 8,781 dwellings and more than 16,660 jobs.

AECOM have compared these figures to the growth assumptions included in TEMPRO to 2031 (rather

than 2026 as defined by the Core Strategy) for consistency with other areas considered in this study.

TEMPRO assumes an increase of 8,722 households and 9,865 jobs in Oxford between 2011 and 2031

which is a similar number of homes but only 60% the number of jobs forecast by AECOM which would

suggest that TEMPRO has not been updated to reflect the latest LDF growth proposals. AECOM’s

figures have therefore been used in the assessment.


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Site


Area

(ha) Use Class Jobs

Area

(ha) No. Dwellings

%

Affordable

CS5 West End 7.2 A1 / B1 800 700-800 50%

CS6 Northern Gateway 5.5 B1 3,000 200 50%

CS7 Land West of Barton (consented

application 13/01383/OUT)

2,500m2 A1-A5

7,350m2 C1

3,000m2 D1/D2

270 885 50%

CS8 Land at Summertown - - - 200-500 50%

Oxford City Centre 3.7 All use classes 3,840 1,082 50%

Summertown 0.4 All use classes 3,255 798 50%

Headington All use classes 1,025 2,111 50%

Cowley Road - - - 796 50%

Cowley / Blackbird Leys 1.6 All use classes 4,470 1,199 50%

Oxford Greyhound Stadium

(13/00302/FUL pending consideration) - - - 220

Wolvercote Paper Mill (13/01861/OUT

pending consideration) - - - 7.33 190

Table 10: Summary of Oxford Strategic Development Sites included in Oxford Core Strategy 2026 and

planning applications (mapped in Figure 5)








Use AM Peak PM Peak


Residential 392 1,026 1,418 954 553 1,507

Employment 3,696 652 4,348 630 3,569 4,198



Table 11: Vehicle Trip Generation of Sites in Oxford



work data for the resident population of Oxford. The distribution of traffic from the employment uses has

been calculated based on the daytime population of Oxford. These distributions have then been used to

determine the total quantum of traffic likely to impact at M40 J10 and the A43 to the north of the junction,

as summarised in Table 12.


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Route

AM Peak PM Peak

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

M40 N A43 N

M40 S 1% 43 1% 15

A43 N M40 N

M40 S 12% 522 4% 60

M40 S M40 N 1% 14 1% 42

A43 N 4% 57 12% 504

Total 636 621

Table 12: Vehicle Trip Distribution from Sites in Oxford

From this information it can be determined that 636 and 621 vehicle trips from strategic development

sites in Oxford will impact at M40 J10 during the respective AM and PM peaks. This will be in addition to


4.5 West Oxfordshire

West Oxfordshire District Council intended to publish their Local Plan in Summer 2013 following public

consultation on the draft Plan in late 2012. However, following the revocation of the South East Plan and

the commissioning of a new Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) for Oxfordshire, a decision

was made not to progress the draft Plan further until evidence gathering for the SHMA is complete.

However, in the absence of any better data at this time, our assessment has been based on the

development sites contained in the draft Local Plan as shown spatially in Figure 6.

Figure 6: West Oxfordshire Development Distribution Map

(reproduced from West Oxfordshire draft Local Plan)


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The forecast numbers of dwellings and jobs have been derived using the methodology set out in Section

4. As information regarding the proposed employment development mix and potential job creation is

only available for West Witney SDA, the same ratio has been applied to all other employment sites in

West Oxfordshire.

The development sites in West Oxfordshire are anticipated to deliver 6,650 dwellings and 2,200 jobs as

summarised in Table 13 below. AECOM have compared these figures to the growth assumptions

included in TEMPRO to 2031 (rather than 2029 as defined by the Local Plan) for consistency with other

areas considered in this study. TEMPRO assumes an increase of 5,297 households and 3,114 jobs in

West Oxfordshire between 2011 and 2031 which is 1,353 fewer homes and 914 more jobs than forecast

by AECOM. This discrepancy would suggest that TEMPRO has not been updated to include the latest

LDF proposals. As the number of jobs forecast by TEMPRO is higher, AECOM have included an

additional 914 jobs in their assessment.

Site


Area

(ha) Use Class Jobs

Area

(ha)

No.

Dwellings

%

Affordable

Land North of Witney 55 1,500

West Witney SDA

(planning application 12/0084/P/OP) 10

50% B1

25% B2

25% B8

1,000 1,000

East Witney SDA

(Cogges Triangle & Cogges South) - - - 500

East of Carterton SDA - - - 1,000

West of Carterton - - - 1,000

Kilkenny Farm, North Carterton Phase 2 300

REEMA North (MOD) - - - 200

REEMA Central - - - 27 550

West Oxon Business Park / Ventura Park 5 B1 / B2 / B8 500 - - -

Chipping Norton - - 600 50%

Former Highways Depot, Chipping Norton 1 B1 / B2 / B8 100 - - -

Former Parker Knoll Factory, Chipping Norton 2 B1 / B2 / B8 200 - - -

North of London Road, Chipping Norton 2 B1 / B2 / B8 200 - - -

Lakeside Standlake 2 B1 / B2 / B8 200 - - -

Other TEMPRO Growth 914 - - -

Table 13: Summary of West Oxfordshire Strategic Development Sites included in West Oxfordshire Draft

Local Plan









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Use AM Peak PM Peak


Residential 584 1,528 2,111 1,445 838 2,283

Employment 1,358 240 1,597 235 1,334 1,569



Table 14: Vehicle Trip Generation of Sites in West Oxfordshire



work data for the resident population of West Oxfordshire. The distribution of traffic from the employment

uses has been calculated based on the daytime population of West Oxfordshire. These distributions

have then been used to determine the total quantum of traffic likely to impact at M40 J10 and the A43 to

the north of the junction, as summarised in Table 15.

Route

AM Peak PM Peak

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

B430

(Local)

M40 N 1% 21 2% 31

A43 N 8% 169 8% 126

M40 S 3% 63 1% 16

M40 N B430

(Local)

2% 32 1% 23

A43 N 8% 128 8% 183

M40 S 1% 16 3% 68

Total 429 447

Table 15: Vehicle Trip Distribution from Sites in West Oxfordshire


sites in West Oxfordshire will impact at M40 J10 during the respective AM and PM peaks. This will be in

addition to blanket background economic only growth of 15% calculated from TEMPRO.

4.6 Buckingham

The Vale of Aylesbury Plan (VAP) Strategy was submitted to Government in August 2013. The

document forms the first part of the Local Plan which sets out the strategic objectives and housing and

employment figures for the district up to 2031. Unfortunately the Plan does not yet contain any housing

or employment figures which could be used in this study. The South East Plan proposed 4,700 new

homes in the rural areas of Aylesbury Vale District between 2006 and 2026; however, this was revoked

in March 2013 to decentralise planning powers to local authorities. AECOM are aware that a planning

application (09/01035/AOP) for 700 dwellings, a primary school and 8,600m2 of employment uses at

London Road, Buckingham was granted permission in 2009 but it is unclear how much of this

development has already been constructed and is operational. TEMPRO forecasts 7,128 additional

households and 2,650 additional jobs in the rural areas of Aylesbury Vale District between 2011 and

2031 but without a Local Plan or any other growth figures, AECOM are not able to determine whether

this growth is realistic. Therefore, for the purposes of this study, no growth over and above blanket

background economic growth of 15% has been assumed in Buckingham.

4.7 Brackley

The West Northamptonshire Joint Core Strategy (WNJCS) sets out the long term vision and objectives

for the area covered by Daventry District, Northampton Borough and South Northamptonshire Councils


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for the plan period up to 2026. The WNJCS was submitted to the Secretary of State for examination in

Spring 2013 but has not yet been adopted. Therefore our assessment of Brackley has been based on

the development sites contained in the draft Core Strategy Pre-Submission and local planning

applications as shown in Figure 7 and summarised in Table 16. The forecast numbers of dwellings and

jobs have been derived using the methodology set out in Section 4.

Figure 7: Brackley North SUE (left), Brackley East SUE (middle) and Brackley Sawmills (right) Location

Maps (reproduced from WNJCS Pre-Submission and Brackley Sawmills Transport Assessment)

Site


Area

(ha) Use Class Jobs

Area

(ha)

No.

Dwellings

%

Affordable

North of Turweston Road -

Brackley East SUE

(consented application

S/2008/1648/PO)

10.2

Total floorspace shall not exceed

38,000m2 incl. <8,000m

2 B1a

<20,000m2 B1c

<15,000m2 B8

1,000 - - -

South of Turweston Road –

Brackley East SUE

(S/2011/0141/MAO pending

consideration)

- - - 14 350 18%

Brackley Sawmills


S/2010/0332/MAO)

- - - 5.6 130

Radstone Fields –

Brackley North SUE


S/2010/0995/MAO)

42.25 1,000m

2 Mixed use local centre

A1-A5 uses 53 1,000

Table 16: Summary of Brackley Strategic Development Sites included in West Northamptonshire Joint Core

Strategy and Planning Applications

The development sites in Brackley are anticipated to deliver 1,480 dwellings and 1,053 jobs. AECOM

have compared these figures to the growth assumptions included in TEMPRO to 2031 (rather than 2026

as defined by the WNJCS) for consistency with other areas considered in this study. TEMPRO assumes

an increase of 1,161 households and 1,055 jobs in Brackley between 2011 and 2031 which is 319 fewer


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homes but the same number of jobs as forecast by AECOM. As the TEMPRO future households figure

is below the levels of growth forecast by AECOM and the number of jobs is consistent, AECOM’s figures

have been used in the assessment.








Use AM Peak PM Peak


Residential 144 376 519 350 203 553

Employment 507 90 597 87 491 578

Total Vehicle Trip Generation 651 465 1,116 437 694 1,131


Table 17: Vehicle Trip Generation of Sites in Brackley



work data for the resident population of Brackley. The distribution of traffic from the employment uses

has been calculated based on the daytime population of Brackley. These distributions have then been



Route

AM Peak PM Peak

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

M40 N A43 N

M40 S

A43 N M40 N

M40 S 30% 156 37% 214

M40 S M40 N

A43 N 37% 221 30% 166

Total 377 380

Table 18: Vehicle Trip Distribution from Sites in Brackley


sites in Brackley will impact at M40 J10 during the respective AM and PM peaks. This will be in addition

to blanket background economic only growth of 15% calculated from TEMPRO.

4.8 Towcester

Our assessment of Towcester has also been based on the development sites contained in the draft

WNJCS Pre-Submission and local planning applications as shown in Figure 8 and summarised in Table

19. The forecast numbers of dwellings and jobs have been derived using the methodology set out in

Section 4.


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Figure 8: Towcester South SUE and Moat Lane Regeneration Area Location Maps

(reproduced from WNJSC Pre-Submission)

The development sites in Towcester are anticipated to deliver 2,791 dwellings and 3,467 jobs. AECOM

have compared these figures to the growth assumptions included in TEMPRO to 2031 (rather than 2026

as defined by the WNJCS) for consistency with other areas considered in this study. TEMPRO assumes

an increase of just 673 households and 597 jobs in Towcester between 2011 and 2031 which is 2,118

fewer homes and 2,870 fewer jobs than forecast by AECOM. As the TEMPRO future households and

jobs figures are below the levels of growth forecast by AECOM, AECOM’s figures have been used in the

assessment.

Site


Area

(ha) Use Class Jobs

Area

(ha)

No.

Dwellings

%

Affordable

Moat Lane, Towcester


10/0102/OUTWNS)

2.74

174m2 A1

2,327m2 B1a

291m2 B2

2,613m2 C1

2,174m2 D2

467 41

Towcester South SUE 15.4

22,000m2 B1

10,500m2 B2

4,600m2 B8

3,000 2,750

Table 19: Summary of Towcester Strategic Development Sites included in West Northamptonshire Joint

Core Strategy and Planning Applications


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for the PM peak derived from Census 2011 and 2012 NTS data.

The vehicle trip generation potential of the employment uses has been quantified by multiplying the

forecast number of jobs by 90% to account for not all employees working simultaneously (due to illness,

holidays or shift work) multiplied by the mode shares derived from the Census 2011 and 2012 NTS. The

resultant cumulative generations are summarised in Table 20.

Use AM Peak PM Peak


Residential 266 697 964 650 377 1,027

Employment 1,644 290 1,935 281 1,591 1,872

Total Vehicle Trip Generation 1,911 988 2,898 931 1,968 2,899


Table 20: Vehicle Trip Generation of Sites in Towcester



work data for the resident population of Towcester. The distribution of traffic from the employment uses

has been calculated based on the daytime population of Towcester. These distributions have then been



Route

AM Peak PM Peak

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

M40 N A43 N

M40 S

A43 N M40 N

M40 S 30% 289 38% 711

M40 S M40 N

A43 N 38% 735 30% 308

Total 1,024 1,019

Table 21: Vehicle Trip Distribution from Sites in Towcester

From this information it can be determined that 1,024 and 1,019 vehicle trips from strategic development

sites in Towcester will impact at M40 J10 during the respective AM and PM peaks. This will be in

addition to blanket background economic only growth of 15% calculated from TEMPRO.

4.9 Silverstone

Our assessment of Silverstone has also been based on the development sites contained in the draft

WNJCS Pre-Submission and local planning applications as shown in Figure 9 and summarised in Table

22. The forecast numbers of dwellings and jobs have been derived using the methodology set out in

Section 4.


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Figure 9: Silverstone Location Map

(reproduced from Silverstone Transport Assessment)

Site


Area

(ha) Use Class Jobs

Area

(ha)

No.

Dwellings

%

Affordable

Silverstone Circuit

(consented

application

S/2011/1051/MAO

and 11/01785/AOP)

122

73,149m² Business Park B1 / B2 / B8

62,662m² Technology Park B1 / B2 / B8

18,600m² ‘Motorcity facilities

University Technical College

61,694m² Central Hub, Welcome Centre

and Experience Centres

Leisure Hub

Karting Centre

3 Hotels (450 beds total)

Hospitality and Grandstand facilities

5,344 - - -

Other TEMPRO

Growth - - - 5,218

Table 22: Summary of Silverstone Strategic Development Sites included in West Northamptonshire Joint

Core Strategy and Planning Applications

The Silverstone Circuit development is anticipated to deliver 5,344 jobs. AECOM have compared these

figures to the growth assumptions included in TEMPRO to 2031 (rather than 2026 as defined by the

WNJCS) for consistency with other areas considered in this study. TEMPRO assumes an increase of

5,218 households and 3,772 jobs in rural areas of South Northamptonshire between 2011 and 2031. As

the TEMPRO jobs figure is below the level of growth forecast by AECOM for Silverstone, AECOM’s

figures have been used in the assessment. However, as no residential development is proposed at

Silverstone Circuit, the 5,218 dwellings forecast by TEMPRO to 2031 have been added into AECOM’s

assessment. AECOM have calculated the vehicle trip generation potential of the employment uses


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based previous assessments of the site undertaken to inform the Agency’s response to the Silverstone

Circuit planning application. The resultant generations are summarised in Table 23.

Use AM Peak PM Peak


Residential 538 1,409 1,947 1,316 763 2,079

Employment 3,121 477 3,597 464 2,307 2,771

Total Vehicle Trip Generation


Table 23: Vehicle Trip Generation of Silverstone Circuit



work data for the resident population of Silverstone. The distribution of traffic from the employment uses

has been calculated based on previous assessments of the site undertaken to inform the Agency’s

response to the Silverstone Circuit planning application. These distributions have then been used to

determine the total quantum of traffic likely to impact at M40 J10 and the A43 to the north of the junction,

as summarised in Table 24.

Route

AM Peak PM Peak

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

Residential

Distribution

Employment

Distribution

Trip

Impact

M40 N A43 N

M40 S

A43 N M40 N

M40 S 31% 604 22% 610

M40 S M40 N

A43 N 22% 792 31% 645

Total 1,395 1,254

Table 24: Vehicle Trip Distribution from Sites in Silverstone

From this information it can be determined that 1,395 and 1,254 vehicle trips from the Silverstone Circuit

will impact at M40 J10 during the respective AM and PM peaks. This will be in addition to blanket

background economic only growth of 15% calculated from TEMPRO.

4.10 Summary

The results of this assessment indicate that the strategic development sites identified in this study could

cumulatively generate approximately 5,500 additional peak hour trips on the M40 / A43 network by

2031, as summarised in Table 25. These trips would be in addition to blanket economic growth of 15%.

Approximately 25% of these trips are forecast to come from the Silverstone Circuit development with a

further 20% from Bicester and 18% from Towcester. The most significant increase in demand is forecast

between the A43 north and M40 south travelling southbound in the AM peak and northbound in the PM

peak with up to 1,900 additional vehicle trips per direction per peak using this route.


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Route

Ba

nb

ury

Bic

es

ter

Up

pe

r

He

yfo

rd

Ox

ford

We

st

Ox

on

Bra

ck

ley

To

wc

es

ter

Sil

ve

rsto

ne

To

tal

M40 N

A43 N

M40 S 57 AM

35 PM

337 AM

485 PM

43 AM

15 PM

437 AM

535 PM

B430 212 AM

72 PM

32 AM

23 PM

244 AM

95 PM

A43 N

M40 N

M40 S 253 AM

91 PM

522 AM

60 PM

156 AM

214 PM

289 AM

711 PM

604 AM

610 PM

1,823 AM

1,686 PM

B430 141 AM

28 PM

128 AM

183 PM

269 AM

211 PM

M40 S

M40 N 36 AM

61 PM

457 AM

325 PM

14 AM

42 PM

508 AM

428 PM

A43 N 86 AM

243 PM

57 AM

504 PM

221 AM

166 PM

735 AM

308 PM

792 AM

645 PM

1,890 AM

1,866 PM

B430 212 AM

113 PM

16 AM

68 PM

228 AM

181 PM

B430

M40 N 68 AM

205 PM

21 AM

31 PM

89 AM

236 PM

A43 N 26 AM

137 PM

169 AM

126 PM

195 AM

262 PM

M40 S 106 AM

205 PM

63 AM

16 PM

169 AM

221 PM

Table 25: Cumulative Vehicular Impacts within Study Area

5. Recent Traffic Growth Trends

Traffic counts recorded by the M40 DBFO on the M40 mainline have been reviewed to determine recent

traffic trends and extrapolate a growth trajectory for comparison with the growth forecasts derived by

AECOM.

Counts recorded northbound and southbound between J9-J10 and J10-J11 have been analysed. From

this data the following can be concluded:

Between 2010 and 2011 average mid-week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday) flows

increased by 3.8% between J9-J10 and 2.9% between J10-J11. Flows then reduced by an

average of 1.8% northbound and 0.6% southbound between 2011 and 2012 flows before

increasing by an average of 1.3% in both directions between 2012 and 2013. (Note: 2013 data

excludes November and December).

The proportion of HGVs travelling northbound and southbound between each of the junctions

has remained broadly consistent since January 2010 with HGVs making up 20%-26% of daily

traffic.

The highest demand consistently occurs during the summer months (June to August) with the

lowest demand consistently observed during the winter months (January and December).

However, the difference between the maximum (summer) and minimum (winter) flows was 49%

lower in 2012 than 2010 indicating that demand is becoming more consistent throughout the

year.


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Between 2010 and 2013, the two-way traffic flow on the M40 main line increased by 1,080 vehicles per

annum. Extrapolating this level of growth to 2031 (i.e. 18 years ahead) indicates that approximately

19,500 additional vehicles per day could use the M40 mainline in advance of and after J10. It should be

noted that this takes no account of traffic departing along or joining from the A43 to the north.

A review of average mid-week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday) hourly flows recorded during June

and September 2013 indicates that approximately 19% of daily demand occurs during peak hours

(07:00-10:00 and 16:00-19:00). Applying this to the forecast daily increase of 19,500 vehicles per day up

to 2031 would suggest that an additional 3,500 vehicles could use the M40 mainline during peak hours.

This is broadly consistent with AECOM’s forecast that additional development up to 2031 will result in up

to an additional 3,100 vehicles routing on the M40 mainline during peak hours with a further 1,400 extra

peak hour vehicles resulting from 15% background growth up to 2031.

6. Modelling Resources

7.1 Central Oxfordshire Transport Model (COTM) & Oxfordshire Strategic Model (OSM)

The Central Oxfordshire Transport Model (COTM) was developed by Halcrow to assist Oxfordshire

County Council (OCC) with the development of the Access to Oxford and Central Oxfordshire Transport

Strategy. The multi-modal SATURN model comprised a highway and public transport model and

included a 2007 base year and forecasting years of 2016 and 2030. The highway matrices were

constructed using manual classified counts (MCCs) and automatic traffic counts (ATCs) growthed to

2007 using annual average daily traffic (AADT) flows while roadside interview (RSI) data and a series of

distribution models were built to determine trip productions and attractions and intra-sector movements.

It is understood that the model was not fully approved for future testing and consequently, OCC have

recently commissioned Atkins to develop a new Oxfordshire Strategic Model (OSM).

It is understood that the new OSM model will be based on the COTM model structure but will include

several coding changes and a much more detailed zoning system. The matrices will also be updated

using manual classified count (MCC) and automatic traffic count (ATC) data currently being collected

and mobile phone data will be used to update the distribution. Tempro will be used to calculate future

traffic growth with further adjustment made for development sites, as appropriate. Costs in the model will

be increased incrementally and the matrices will be furnessed based on the relative change in costs

between routes and modes. The OSM is due to be fully developed by the end of March / early April

2014.

Whilst both the COTM and OSM model include M40 J10, the junction lies on the periphery of both

models and consequently the limited zone structure and vehicle route choice in this area means that the

information that can be derived regarding junction operation is limited. It is therefore considered that

these models are of limited use to the Agency in taking the M40 J10 study forward other than to

potentially use the raw data inputs used to construct and validate the OSM model to verify that the HA’s

M40 J10 model is realistic and fit for purpose.

7. Conclusions

The results of this desktop study confirms that significant growth is forecast around Brackley,

Silverstone, Towcester, Bicester, Banbury and Oxford and that this will impact on the M40 J10 / A43

corridor considered as part of this study. AECOM’s main conclusions are as follows:

Between 2011 and 2031, TEMPRO forecasts background economic only growth of 15%. In

addition to this some 5,500 peak hour trips are forecast to impact within the study area as a


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result of strategic development sites being brought forward through adopted and emerging Local

Plan and Core Strategy sites, as shown in Figure 10.

It is recognised by many interest groups that the current layout of M40 J10 is inefficient, highly

constrained and leads to substantial delays and that a new junction layout is required to

facilitate growth in the Motorsport Valley and North Oxfordshire. The A43 is also an important

growth corridor but there are high levels of congestion and operational issues, particularly

around Towcester (A43 Tove and Abthorpe), and no spare capacity to accommodate growth.

The pinch point scheme to be delivered at M40 J10 was developed to deliver value for money

and accommodate traffic at the year of opening (2015) but has not been assessed to

accommodate future growth beyond this horizon. Realistically the pinch point scheme is a short

term fix to a long term problem and additional investment will be required for local growth

opportunities to be realised.

Figure 10: Forecast Distribution of Trips generated by Strategic Development Sites

(excluding economic growth of 15% to 2031)

8. Next Steps

Given the levels of growth planned around M40 J10 and the A43 corridor, it is considered that this study

should be taken forward to a second phase to evaluate the impacts of the growth proposals within the

Agency’s VISSIM model and to develop and assess mitigation options as required. The results of this

exercise could be fed into the second phase of the RBS work which will look at optioneering and

scheme prioritisation.


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The first stage of the RBS process which has focussed on evidence gathering to identify current issues

and future challenges is due to be complete by Spring 2014. The Agency will then work with the

Department for Transport (DfT) during the second phase to use the evidence compiled to identify and

prioritise operational, maintenance and, if appropriate, road improvement schemes. From the prioritised

schemes, a programme of works will be taken forward to inform investment plans for the next full

spending review in 2015. It is anticipated that the second stage of RBS will commence in Spring 2014

and be complete by March 2015. Therefore, to be of value to the Agency, a future year do minimum

model of M40 J10 would need to be developed ready for testing by Spring 2014 to allow improvement

options to be evaluated as they emerge.

9. References

Local Plans

Cherwell District Council – Cherwell Local Plan: Proposed Submission, August 2012

Oxford City Council – Oxford Core Strategy 2026, Adopted 14th March 2011

West Oxfordshire District Council – West Oxfordshire Draft Local Plan: Consultation, October

2012

WNJPU – West Northants Joint Core Strategy Pre-Submission, February 2011

LEPs

Oxfordshire LEP – The Growth Deal and the Oxfordshire Strategic Economic Plan Briefing Note,

October 2013

Oxfordshire LEP – Business Plan for Growth 2013

Oxfordshire LEP – Oxfordshire Local Investment Plan, 31st March 2010

SEMLEP – Business Plan 2013-14

Northamptonshire LEP website

RBS

SEMLEP Anticipated Growth in Housing and Jobs Map

RBS: SEMLEP Stakeholder Workshop Report, October 2013

Oxfordshire Anticipated Growth in Housing and Jobs Map

RBS: Stakeholder Engagement – Oxford Engagement Event, October 2013

Prepared by:......................................... Checked by:.........................................

Jenny Oakes Alastair Gibson

Senior Consultant Principal Consultant

Verified by:......................................... Approved by:.........................................

Sarah Guest Sarah Guest

Associate Director Associate Director

This document has been prepared by AECOM Limited ("AL") for the sole use of our Client (the "Client") and in accordance with

generally accepted consultancy principles, the budget for fees and the terms of reference agreed between AL and the Client. Any

information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by AL, unless otherwise expressly

stated in the document. No third party may rely upon this document without the prior and express written agreement of AL.

Documents

M40 J10 / A43 Desktop Study Reportmodgov.southnorthants.gov.uk/documents/s8528/A43... · Oxfordshire almost doubled between 2007 and 2011 from 5.4% to 9% and simultaneously infrastructure