M Steen Petersen Scenarios 20110317

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Baltic Transport Outlook – Steering Group Meeting/ 17. Mar 2011 / Page1

Overview of Scenarios

Scenario analysis is based on a developed Baseline andSensitivity test of parameters important for transport and

infrastructure




Key drivers and trends

Population change (size and composition)Declining household size (more single person households)

Technological progress (electronic divices, nano)New developments in the transport sector (new fuel types)Climate change (transport 27% of CO2 emissions) ETS for all transport modes

Institutional reforms and opening up of markets (Russia). Regulatory policies

Economic convergence, capital mobilityEconomic development

Decreasing cost of spatial interaction (globalisation, economy of scale in transport)

Environmental protection

Extension of EU (a bigger common market, possibly from 500 to 700 m people)




BSR population development 2009 - 2030




BSR economy

Active population (age group 15 – 64) is decliningEmployment frequency increases slightlyEmployment decreases

Productivity increases

Continuation of present trade patterns

• High trade between BSR countries•

High trade internal in Europe and with the atlantic partners• A slightly increasing trade with East Asia.• India and China seeks to satisfy the needs of their population.• Russia becomes a new booming market.




BSR employment and GDP development 2009 - 2030

Baseline employment Baseline GDP




BSR Carownership development 2009 - 2030




BSR: Other measures

Technological development: Safer, cleaner and more efficienttransport modes.

Development of Sea transport modes with less negative impacts:Spill, emission, safer constructions, taking into consideration the icecaps.

Transport costs:Cost per km or cost per hour.

Depend on many issues including:Engine technology, fuel price, wages and regulatory policies (ETS,

EUROnorms, a level playing field)




BSR: Transport costs

Oil price development in 2008 USD per barrel




BSR: Transport policy

Regulation of competition (a level playing field)

Each mode of transport pays its own costs. For road transport following applies

Baseline High growth Low growth

Cost recoveryGerman charges 0.15 – 0.18 EUR 0.15 – 0.18 EUR 0.15 – 0.18 EURNew countries 0.06 EUR 0.06 EUR 0.06 EUR

Emission, noise, congestionLowest level 0.03 EURHighest level 0.82 EURProposed average 0.06 EUR 0.10 EUR 0.06 EUR




BSR: Network development, Road




BSR: Network development, Rail

Documents

M Steen Petersen Scenarios 20110317