Lyngby, 11. June, 2007 Halldor Matthias Sigurdsson ( [email protected] )

Multimedia Services in Residential Broadband Networks

- Techno-Economics of Residential Broadband Deployment -

Ph.D. Dissertation Defence

Lyngby, 11. June, 2007Lyngby, 11. June, 2007

Halldor Matthias Sigurdsson ([email protected])

Center for Information and Communication Technologies



1. Introduction2. Broadband Services3. Broadband Networks4. Techno-Economics of Residential

Broadband Deployment5. Simulation Results6. Conclusions

Agenda

Techno-Economics of Residential Broadband Deployment Page 3

The thesis was motivated by the questionable financial feasibility of coexisting FTTH and DSL deployment in Denmark

Contradiction between (and within) literature and empirical evidence

Evidence of wide-scale upgrades of access network infrastructures:– “broadband markets are advancing to the next stage of development” (OECD 2005)

Literature findings: – “FTTH is only profitable in dense urban areas” (Olsen et al. 2006)– “The costs are such that high take rates .. are almost mandatory” (Frigo et al. 2004)– “FTTH in urban scenario does not lead to positive payback” (Monat et al. 2003)

Empirical evidence:

Existing and expected wide-scale FTTH deployment in Denmark

– 21% households by 2007

– 50% households by 2016

Expected wide-scale VDSL deployment in Europe

– VDSL deployment by T-Systems

– VDSL deployment by France Telecom


The goal was to perform a multidisciplinary study of telecom vs. entrant deployment strategies

Analyse the nature and near-future transmission requirements of converged voice, video and data services

Analyse the approaches of telecoms using Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) technology in comparison to entry strategies based on Fibre-to-the-Home (FTTH)

Investigate the effect of coexisting and competing DSL and FTTH

Broadband

Networks

Services

Technology

Econ

om

ics

Reg

ula

tion

Multidisciplinary study with roots in the theory of technology, economics, and regulation

Evaluate and compare deployment strategies through financial feasibility

Based on the case of Denmark


The solution approach is based on comparing financial feasibility under competition using the theory of

techno-economics combined with game-theory

Tilted Annuity

CAPEX OPEX Revenues

Price Change

Depreciation

EBITDA

EBITInterests

Pre-TaxProfit

-+

-

-

+

+

FEA

SA

BIL

ITY

M

OD

EL

Input Scenarios

Model DatabaseNetwork

DimensioningService

Dimensioning

Input Parameters

Techno-EconomicModel

SIM

ULA

TIO

N

MO

DEL

Analysisof

Networks

Analysisof

Services

AN

ALY

SIS

CO

MP

ETIT

ION

M

OD

EL

CompetitiveScenario 1

CompetitiveScenario 2

CompetitiveScenario …

Analyse Broadband Services

Analyse Access

Networks

Construct Feasibility

Model

Evaluate DSL

Feasibility

Analyse Infrastructure Competition

Simulate DSL

Deployment

Simulate FTTH

Deployment

Evaluate FTTH

Feasibility

Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4

Chapter 5

Chapter 6

Selected Theory and Methodology

Techno-Economics– Developed in RACE 2087/TITAN– Described in Ims et al. 1998– Currently under development in FP6-IST-BROADWAN

and CP1-021-ECOSYS– Recently published results by Olsen et al. (2006)

Game-theory– Developed within economics during the second part of the last

century– General references: Fundenberg and Tirole (1991) and Kreps

(1990)– Uses the Von Stackelberg Game





Agenda


A new approach is needed to define broadband

The new way to define broadband is dynamic:

Broadband Definition 1: Local access link performance should not be the limiting factor in a user’s capability for running today’s applications.

Broadband Definition 2: Broadband services should provide sufficient performance — and wide enough penetration of services reaching that performance level—to encourage the development of new applications.

Previously broadband was defined through transmission capacity:

> 56 Kb/s (more than PSTN modem)> 128 Kb/s (more than IDSN)> 512 Kb/s …

Today many literature sources use:> 2 Mb/s

Near-future demand:> 20 Mb/s

Based on: National Research Council, 2002


Quality of Packet Based Services is governed by QoS of transmission

Packet Based Network

Payload

Head

er

Multimedia Services have different transmission requirements:

Voice services require timeliness (<180 ms delay) TOS1– Coding used to reduce effect of congestion

Video services require throughput (>2-10 Mbps) TOS2– Coding used to reduce the transmission requirements

Data services require consistent data (no package loss) TOS3– TCP used ensure retransmission of lost packages

Congestion

Payload

Head

er

UserService Provider


Managed Networks can guarantee QoS of different types of services but only within their boundaries

Network Access Providers can guarantee QoS through:– Over Provisioning– Loose control– Strict control

QoS can only be offered from within managed networks– Operators need to select provisional strategy– Limits revenue sharing on the Internet

Voice

VLAN

Data

VLAN

Voice PVC

Data PVC

PVC / VLAN mapping at local exchange


To this day multimedia services have been complements to existing services but that is likely to change

Voice

Video

Data

Maturity Adoption

Disruptive potentials

Users have kept their traditional services– PSTN– Cable TV

Users have adapted new services– IM– P2P

Traditional services such as PSTN will continue to diminish while new converged services gain maturity and momentum


Increased available transmission speeds are being absorbed by new services and applications

Broadband Development– Phase 1 (Service Profile 1)

• Internet Access• Speed < 1,5 Mbps

– Phase 2 (Service Profile 2)• High speed broadband• Speed 2-8

– Phase 3 (now) (Service Profile 3)• Broadband Services (Voice, Video and Data)• Speed 8-24 Mbps

– Phase 4 (Near future) (Service Profile 4)• Converged Multimedia Platform• Speed 24-50 Mbps

[Alcatel, ref. 1, 2004] time

Applicationusage

Bandwidth required

per streaming application

Compression

techniques

More applications

per household

(audio streaming,

video streaming, …)

Bandwidth requirementsper user

20Mbps

5Mbps

2Mbps

1992 1996 2000 2004

1Mbps

MPEG2

MPEG4

Bandwidth

Désiré KARYABWITE, Victoria Falls presentation,





Agenda


Two approaches are available and competing: DSL by telecoms and FTTH by entrants

Time

Investment and Capacity

ADSL

ADSL2+

VDSL

PON/FTTH

Active Ethernet FTTHEntrant / Energy Utility Company

Telecom

Demand

Telecoms follow a migration strategy based on diminishing copper using DSL technology

Entrants / Energy Utility Companies only have a realistic option of deploying FTTH


Low speedData

High speedIPTV mm.

Length of copper loops limits the service offerings of DSL

– DSL technology uses the existing PSTN copper loop– Currently DSL equipment (DSLAM) is located in local exchanges– Attainable transmission speeds in DSL are determined by cooper loop length– As a result customers in the vicinity of local exchanges can get high speed transmission

while customers further away can risk getting no service

Local ExchangeSDP

Optical Backbone Network

SDP

PDP

No service


Telecoms can increase service offerings by deploying DSLAM equipment in PDP or SDP

Local ExchangeSDP

Twisted Copper Pair

Trench/Duct/Cable for PDP

Trench/Duct/Cable for SDP

PDP = Primary Distribution Point

RSS = Secondary Distribution Point


SDP

PDP

STRATEGY 1:DSLAMs in PDP

STRATEGY 2:DSLAMs in SDP

DSLAM in PDP– 20-40 Mbps theoretical average– 7-17 PDP nodes for each LE

DSLAM in SDP– 67-90 Mbps theoretical average– 126-1731 SDP nodes for each LE

CAPEX and OPEX increases withnumber nodes outside of LE andTherefore:cost LE < cost PDP << cost SDP


While telecoms can migrate between deployment strategies entrants can only deploy FTTH

Copper

PSTNISDN

ADSL

Copper FTTC

PSTNISDN

IPTVVDSL

Current Telecom

Scenario 2

FTTH

VoIP IPTVBPON

Scenario 3

Copper

PSTNISDN

ADSL2+

Scenario 1

IPTVU

pg

rad

e S

trat

egy

PON

Active

Scenario options and

future proofing

Network optimisation

Key decision to find position and number of nodes

An entrant only has the option of deploying FTTH

Two FTTH technical solutions –Star based active Ethernet–Tree based Passive Optical Networks

FTTH is technologically superior– Facilitates higher transmission speeds– “Future Proof” transmission medium

Both require expensive groundwork Neither solution is mature Equipment prices will change Regulatory uncertainty


Empirical study of Hasselager in Denmark demonstrates how telecoms map out strategic roll-out strategies

Overview of upgrade alternatives in Hasselager

1 node DSL facilitating 20 Mb/s



16 node DSL / AON / PON facilitating +100 Mb/s

Detached DSLAM Active Node

Optical Fibre

Copper





Agenda

Geometric Model

Rectangular geographic area divided among homogeneously distributed buildings

All buildings are assumed to connect through vertically and horizontal trenches to the nearest Aggregation Node

Basic Model

CPE CPE CPE CPE CPE CPE

CPECPECPECPECPECPE


CPECPECPECPECPECPE


CPECPECPECPECPECPE

AN


CPECPECPECPECPECPE


CPECPECPECPECPECPE


CPECPECPECPECPECPE

AN


CPECPECPECPECPECPE


CPECPECPECPECPECPE


CPECPECPECPECPECPE

AN

ANAN AN

AN AN

ANAN AN

LE

ANAN AN

AN AN

ANAN AN

LE


Modelling Financial Feasibility

Modelling Financial Feasibility

Net Present Value (NPV)

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Constant Payment (PMT)

Payback-method

Tilted Annuity

CAPEX OPEX Revenues

Price Change

Depreciation

EBITDA

EBITInterests

Pre-TaxProfit

-+

-

-

+

+

FEA

SA

BIL

ITY

M

OD

EL

+ Revenues

― OPEX

= EBITDA

― Depreciation and amortization

= EBIT

― Interest

= Pre-tax profit

The thesis follows the recommendation of the Danish NRA and uses a variant of PMT called tilted annuity

– Tilted annuity can vary from year to year at the same rate as the price of the asset is expected to vary

– Tilted annuity results in costs which, after discounting, cover the purchase price and financing costs of the asset


Modelling Competition

Modelling competition through game-theory

Cournot Competition / Model

Bertrand Competition / Model

von Stackelberg Model

Market Structure

Number and size of firms, product differentiation, ease of

entry etc.

Behaviour

Pricing policy, promotional activity, product differentiation

etc.

Performance

Ability to earn and sustain supernormal profits

Number of

firms, FTTH or DSL

Price,

Deployment strategy

Pre-tax profit

Inc

um

be

nt

PDP

SDP

FTTH

NO FTTHLE

FTTH

NO FTTH

FTTH

NO FTTH

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO





Agenda


Denmark was simulated through a dataset from the Danish NRA

Geographic Profiles

Selected Profile 1 2 3 4

City Town Rural A Rural B

Total Area [Km2].................................... 500 4.000 32.000 6.000N1

Population Density [Inhabitants/Km2].... 2.290 411 71 26N2

Inhabitants pr. household....................... 1,7 2,0 2,4 2,6N3

Households pr. building......................... 5,6 1,5 1,0 1,0N4

Households............................................ 673.529 822.000 946.667 60.000

Buildings................................................. 121.322 533.294 946.667 60.000N5

Existing Infrastructure


Average total cable length..................... 1,95 1,59 2,29 3,35N6

LE to PDP............................................... 1,23 0,87 1,00 1,75N6

PDP to SDP........................................... 0,66 0,62 1,11 1,39N6

SDP to NTP 0,07 0,09 0,18 0,21

PON........................................................Total number of existing LE................... 32 160 865 125

N8

Total number of existing PDP................ 540 2.200 7.975 885

Total number of existing SDP................ 55.392 139.680 220.575 15.750

PON........................................................Number of PDP pr. LE........................... 17 14 9 7

Number of SDP pr. LE........................... 1.731 873 255 126

NTP in buildings for PON.......................Households pr LE................................... 21.048 5.138 1.094 480

Households pr PDP................................ 1.247 374 119 68

Households pr SDP................................ 12,2 5,9 4,3 3,8

Local ExchangeSDP

Twisted Copper Pair

Trench/Duct/Cable for PDP

Trench/Duct/Cable for SDP

PDP = Primary Distribution Point

RSS = Secondary Distribution Point


SDP

PDP

STRATEGY 1:DSLAMs in PDP

STRATEGY 2:DSLAMs in SDP


DSL upgrade strategy 1DSLAM at PDP

CAPEX breakdown for DSL provided from PDP

for 50% of DSL market share (11 subscribers per 100 inhabitants)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000


CA

PE

X p

er s

ubsc

riber

[€]

Customer PremisesEquipment

DSLAM

Line-cards

Cabinets

Transmission Cables

Ducts

Trenches

Nominal speed: 39 Mb/s




372%increase

145%

47% 45% 42%

53%

13%

24%

20%

17%

14%

8%

8%

12%

Annuity breakdown for DSL provided from PDP

for 50% of DSL market share (11 subscribers per 100 inhabitants)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


Ann

uity

per

sub

scrib

er [

€]


DSLAM

Line-cards

Cabinets

Transmission Cables

Ducts

Trenches

221%increase

40%

103%

26%

19%

13%

9%

18%

15%

19%

10%

10%

21%14%

26%

9%

37%

24%24%22%

14%

12%

13%

6%6%

7%

17%

Competitive ability of DSL from PDP

22 DSL subscribers per 100 inhabitants

(60)

(40)

(20)

-

20

40

60

80

Market share in DSL market

Pre

-tax

pro

fit

per

ho

use

ho

ld

City

Town

Rural A

Rural B

Least expensive upgrade alternative

Profitable in all scenarios

Room for competition

Technical problems with unbundling


DSL upgrade strategy 2DSLAM at SDP

CAPEX breakdown for DSL provided from SDP

22 subscribers per 100 inhabitants

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000


CA

PE

X p

er s

ubsc

riber

[€]


DSLAM

Line-cards

Cabinets

Transmission Cables

Ducts

Trenches

Nominal speed: 52-90 Mb/s



Nominal speed: 52-67 Mb/s226%

increase

153%

101%

36%

31%

29%

23%

39%

46%45%

51%

9%

8%

6%

9%

Annuity breakdown for DSL provided from SDP

22 subscribers per 100 inhabitants

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


Ann

uity

per

sub

scrib

er [

€]


DSLAM

Line-cards

Cabinets

Transmission Cables

Ducts

Trenches

167%increase

85%

124%

30%

29%

27%

24%

20%26% 26%

32%

21%

19%

17%

15%

5%

17%

18%

22%

19%

Profitability of DSL from SDP

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

Household take-up rate

Pre

-tax

pro

fit p

er h

ouse

hold

City

Town

Rural A

Rural B

Costly and aggressive deployment strategy for telecoms

Governed by local loop characteristics

Highly affected by equipment price

Can forestall entry


FTTH DeploymentFull cost

CAPEX breakdown for FTTH

at 50% broadband market share

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000


CA

PE

X p

er s

ubsc

riber

[€]


Access Trenches

Access Ducts

Access TransmissionCables

Access Node - Cabinets

Aggregation Ducts

Aggregation Trenches

Access Node - Switches

61%

71%

67%

67%

14%16%

5% 4%12%

413%increase

167%

278%

Annuity breakdown for FTTH

at 50% broadband market share

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000


Ann

uity

per

sub

scrib

er [

€]


Access Trenches

Access Ducts



Aggregation Ducts



290%increase

116%

193%

50%

48%

50%

19%35%23%

27%

6%

12%

26%

9%

7%

16%8%13%20%

Profitability of FTTH

with and without annualised 1000 € connectivity fee

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Houshold take-up rate

Pre

-tax

pro

fit p

er h

ouse

hold City

Town

Rural A

Rural B

City

Town

Rural A

Rural B

Dominated by trench cost

Financially feasible in cities

Requires high market share

Not feasible in other scenarios


FTTH DeploymentShared digging and connectivity fee

CAPEX breakdown for FTTH

at 20% trench cost and 50% broadband market share

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000


CA

PE

X p

er s

ubsc

riber

[€]


Access Trenches

Access Ducts



Aggregation Ducts



255%increase

78%

148%

11%

8%

6%

26%

29%

35%

11% 8%

20%

23% 18%25%

31%

28%

29%

25%

12%

9%

Annuity breakdown for FTTH

at 20% trench cost and 50% broadband market share

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450


Ann

uity

per

sub

scrib

er [

€]


Access Trenches

Access Ducts



Aggregation Ducts



24%

19%

14%

28%34%

42%

18% 13%

36%

29%26%

22%

EBIDTA

14%

14%

16%

10%

Profitability of FTTH in shared digging

at 20% trench cost (with and without connectivity fee)

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Houshold take-up rate

Pre

-tax

pro

fit p

er h

ouse

hold City

Town

Rural A

Rural B

City

Town

Rural A

Rural B

Can be financially feasible in all scenarios

Attracting customers is critical

Equipment cost becomes dominant


In the absence of competition there are limitedincentive for an incumbent to deploy advanced DSL

City Town Rural A Rural B City Town Rural A Rural B

CAPEX for DSL deployment in LE [€/subscr].......... 85,6 85,1 101,9 103,6 25,2 25,1 30,0 30,5

CAPEX for DSL deployment in PDP [€/subscr]....... 379,0 604,5 928,1 1.791,4 56,6 79,5 114,7 181,9

CAPEX for DSL deployment in SDP [€/subscr]....... 1.836,0 3.685,4 4.636,4 5.984,3 280,9 525,2 640,1 772,7

Relative CAPEX for DSL deployment in LE............. 1,0 1,0 1,2 1,2 1,0 1,0 1,2 1,2

Relative CAPEX for DSL deployment in PDP.......... 4,4 7,1 10,8 20,9 2,2 3,2 4,6 7,2

Relative CAPEX for DSL deployment in SDP.......... 21,4 43,1 54,2 69,9 11,1 20,8 25,4 30,7

City Town Rural A Rural B City Town Rural A Rural B

Annuity for DSL deployment in LE [€/subscr].......... 179,6 192,9 166,4 124,9 154,4 167,9 136,4 94,4

Annuity for DSL deployment in PDP [€/subscr]....... 215,3 215,6 200,5 192,4 158,7 136,1 85,8 10,5

Annuity for DSL deployment in SDP [€/subscr]....... 264,0 264,0 264,0 262,4 -16,9 -261,2 -376,1 -510,2

Relative annuity for DSL deployment in LE............. 1,0 1,1 0,9 0,7 1,0 1,1 0,9 0,6

Relative annuity for DSL deployment in PDP.......... 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,6 0,1

Relative annuity for DSL deployment in SDP.......... 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 -0,1 -1,7 -2,4 -3,3

Relative to LE deployment in City

Revenue summary


CAPEX summary


Annuity summary

Profitability summary



When faced with competition deployment becomes a dominant strategy for the incumbent

ILEC EUC CLEC

1,33 33,76 0,83

5,33 39,37 0,00

21,31 0,00 9,68

33,30 0,00 0,00

28,66 14,58 -0,17

35,38 20,10 0,00

69,34 0,00 2,07

90,57 0,00 0,00

32,55 -5,98 -0,09

38,07 -6,64 0,00

52,39 0,00 -0,17

68,84 0,00 0,00

Incu

mb

ent

PDP

SDP

FTTH

NO FTTHLE

FTTH

NO FTTH

FTTH

NO FTTH

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

Do

min

ant

Str

ateg

y

ILEC EUC CLEC

1,45 -4,04 0,67

5,79 0,26 0,00

23,17 0,00 9,65

36,21 0,00 0,00

26,79 -15,34 -0,35

33,07 -8,39 0,00

64,82 0,00 1,89

84,67 0,00 0,00

0,00 -39,52 -0,17

0,57 -43,91 0,00

10,20 0,00 -0,35

21,96 0,00 0,00

Incu

mb

ent

PDP

SDP

FTTH

NO FTTHLE

FTTH

NO FTTH

FTTH

NO FTTH

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

Do

min

an

t S

trat

eg

y

Von Stackelberg game for cities Von Stackelberg game for towns

ILEC EUC CLEC

1,18 -39,38 -0,01

4,71 -34,58 0,00

18,82 0,00 8,54

29,41 0,00 0,00

19,59 -68,30 -0,87

24,18 -58,83 0,00

47,40 0,00 1,27

61,91 0,00 0,00

-33,67 -113,30 -0,43

-30,74 -125,89 0,00

-25,02 0,00 -0,87

-17,17 0,00 0,00

Incu

mb

ent

PDP

SDP

FTTH

NO FTTHLE

FTTH

NO FTTH

FTTH

NO FTTH

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

Do

min

an

t S

trat

eg

y

ILEC EUC CLEC

0,81 -103,27 -2,46

3,26 -100,96 0,00

13,03 0,00 3,51

20,35 0,00 0,00

9,54 -113,61 -2,13

11,77 -101,99 0,00

23,07 0,00 -2,32

30,14 0,00 0,00

-62,53 -167,67 -1,07

-60,74 -186,30 0,00

-58,83 0,00 -2,13

-54,81 0,00 0,00

Incu

mb

ent

PDP

SDP

FTTH

NO FTTHLE

FTTH

NO FTTH

FTTH

NO FTTH

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

CLEC

NO

Do

min

an

t S

trat

eg

y

Von Stackelberg game for Rural A Von Stackelberg game for Rural B





Agenda


Summary of Multimedia Networks and Services

INTERNET

PSTN

ModemCPE

TV

Broadband needs to redefined based on services Voice, Video, and data services require different transmission

properties to function properly Future networks will be based on the layered concept of next-

generation-networks Aggregated current need is ~ 20 Mbps Foreseen near-future need is ~ 50 Mbps

Convergence of Networks

Convergence of Services

Multimedia


Summary of techno-economic study

Telecoms can deploy financially feasible DSL from PDP or SDP

In the absence of competition, telecoms have limited incentive to deploy advanced DSL outside of local exchanges

When faced with competition deployment becomes a dominant strategy from telecoms

Energy Utility Companies can deploy financially feasible FTTH

The single most important factor (and problem they face) is securing a customer base

The broadband market in Denmark is close to saturated

EUCs predominantly choose active Ethernet while passive optical networks will dominate the future market

Co

st /

Rev

enu

es

Revenues

Fixedcost

0% 100%

Variable cost

loss profit

Take-up rate

Cost pr.household


Conclusion and recommendations

Recommendations:

EUCs are fragmented and individual selection of technologies and business models will result in both success and failure

EUCs should consider cooperation with major telecoms (ILEC and CLECs), e.g. through

– unbundled fibre

Fibre will last > 30 years FTTH equipment (cpe and switches) will last < 10

years EUCs have experience in deploying and

maintaining cables Telecoms have experience in deploying and

maintaining equipment Cost of digging prevents telecoms from

deployment Technology and business cases prevent EUCs from

deployment Outsourcing of infrastructures is increasing in the

telecom world today





Appendix

Agenda


“Information Chain”

Services / Applicaitons

Access Networks

Backbone Networks

Middleware

Service Provision

Value Chain

Business Models

Cost

Techno-Economics

Economics

Policy & Regulation

Market and

competition


Academic Conclusion

Solved an insolubleproblem

Break problem down and solve individually

Milestones are necessary

Maturing

Need for discipline

Interactivity

Transmission Interactivity

Unidirectional Bidirectional

Con

ten

t In

tera

cti

vit

y

Linear

Cust

om

ised

BroadcastTV

VoD

MultiplayerGames

Developm

ent Path

of I

PTV


Netværkskonvergens

Fra dedikerede til multifunktionelle netværker Resultat er konkurrence mellem infrastrukturer (infrastructure competition) Ikke én løsning er bedst Hvad er så forskellen?

Henrik Clausen,IDC Telecom Konference 2006


DSL Existing Infrastructure

Contradiction between literature and empirical evidence:

Existing and expected wide-scale FTTH in Denmark: The Danish Energy utility sector is planning FTTH deployment to xx% of danish homes in

Data-rate and distance performance in DSL

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0,0

0,3

0,6

0,9

1,2

1,5

1,8

2,1

2,4

2,7

3,0

3,4

3,7

4,0

4,3

4,6

4,9

5,2

5,5

5,8

6,1

6,4

km

Max

imu

m t

ran

smis

sio

n r

ate

ADSL

ADSL2+

VDSL

ADSL2RE

VDSL2

DSL

1.5 km

1 km

0.75 km

0.5 km

0.3 km

52 Mbps

30 Mbps

20 Mbps

26 Mbps

45 Mbps


DSL Existing Infrastructure

Contradiction between literature and empirical evidence:

Existing and expected wide-scale FTTH in Denmark: The Danish Energy utility sector is planning FTTH deployment to xx% of danish homes in

Local Exchange

RSS

SDP

Twisted Copper Pair

Trunk Line

SDP = Secondary Distribution Point

RSS = Remote Subscriber Stage


PDP

Cumulative distribution of line lengths

0

20

40

60

80

100

-1 1 3 5 7

Line length (km)

Perc

en

t

Norway

Italy

U.K.

Germany

India

U.S.

Iceland


Historically transmission speeds have doubled every 1,9 years and are expected to continue doing so

1

10

100

1000

10000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

Bit

rate

[k

b/s

]

According to Moore'slawAnalogue Modems

ISDN

ADSL

Exponential growth according to Moore’s law Enabled by new transmission technologies 2007 predictions are ~ 20 Mbps BT Technology Journal predicts a demand of 100 Mbps in 2010

Based on: Eldering, 1999

Documents

Lyngby, 11. June, 2007 Halldor Matthias Sigurdsson ( [email protected] )