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\ " . .. .

THE NATION OCTOBER 2014

Mahidol's Ebola treatment to be patented shortly

....

OCTOBER 2014BANGKOK POST

AGRICULTURE

Land zoning

to 'save water, raise .yields' POST REPORTERS

Interior Minister Anupong Paojinda will lead a government committee overSeeing "agricultural ,wning'; a key part of the government's efforts to improve farmers' quality of life, Prime Minister Prayut Chano-chi! said yesterday,

. Carrying out agricultural zoning will include the lands of both rice farmers and . rubber growers and is .expected to help reduce water usage while increasing crop yields, said the prime minister,

Gen Anupong was appointed to chair the panel, which consists mainly of officials from the Agriculture: and Cooperatives Ministry and the Commerce Ministry, Gen Prayut said after chailing the National Rice Policy c.omrnittee's meeting yesterday.

The bid to improve farmers' lives also incliJdes increasing rice prices, encouraging s\lstainable farming, improving rice varieties, promoting agricultural marketing of rice, and grouping rice farmers by their growing areas - rented or owned.

What's more, Gen Prayut said, campaigns would be launched to promote higher consu.rnption of rice globally.

"I urge global consumers to switch from eating bread to rice for their health.. Higher demand for rice will then lead to better sajes of Thai rice;' said Gen Prayut.

The Agriculture and Cooperative Ministry, he said, also plans to work with the Interior Ministry 'to better regulate farming by registering all fanners and barring factories from operating in rivers which are usually fertile for growing plants.

Eco-tourism would also be encouraged among fanners by offering home stay services to foreign tourists who may be inierested in experiencing rural lifestyles, said GenPrayut.

Meanwhile, MR PridiyathomDevakula, deputy prime minister in charge of eco-. nomic a£fairs, said the government woUld offer soft loans accountmg tDr 80% 01 the current value of paddies if farmers agree to suspend their sales of the paddy while rice prices are very low.

Farmers were advised to put off their rice sates until rice prices improve, he said.

"" rff1 'a~'V1 'a1.:j'iN 1 ru'V tI

THE NATION OCTOBER 2014J)

RICE GROWERS DILEMMA

easures to eimplemented to help rice farmers: Prayut SAYS FOCUS WILL BE PUT ON BOOSTING PRODUCTIVITY, WITH FARM ZONING TO BE STUDIED FURTHER BY INTERIOR MINISTRY THE NATION

MEASURES WILL be implemented as part oflong-term efforts to help protect farmers from the continued low price of rice includingdevelopingfarmland and advanced planning through the cooperation of relevant agencies, Prime Minister PrayutChan-o-cha said yesterday.

Pi:ayutsaid farm zoningwas still on theagenda and would be further studied by the Interior Ministry.

He said key polices to address the issue included developing land in major river basins into farmland instead offactories or other industries, although he did not say what would happen to the existing businesses in these basins.

There would be no campaign to convince farmers to give up rice farming, as Northeast farmers had suggested after citing speculation in the media..

The junta chief said the focus would be on utilising less farmland and water while at the same time increasing productivity.

He said the Interior Ministry's Damrongtham Centre, which was dedicated to helping financially struggling people, was assisting farmers by working with the Agriculture Ministry to find out which areas of the country were suitable for certain crops.

Assistance would then be given to farmers who were willing to take part in the farm-zoning scheme.

The Btl,OOO per rai that would

be paid to farmers might · be increased at a later stage.

Prayut said farmers would be classified into four groups - very . poor or landless, those owning more than 40 rai of farmland, those with more wealth or those who use tractors or other machinery, and those operating farms and also leasing other farmland.

All groups would be eligible for different kinds ofgovernment assis- . tance or subsidies.

Both ministries would jointly

conduct the classification process and consult on other details importantto working out the zoning policy.

The prime minister said a similar zoning scheme would also apply to the rubber industry in a bid to better shield it from a drop in global rubber prices. He. did not provide more details. .

He planned to promote environmental tourism, which would include foreign tourists briefly staying at rice farms.

BANGKOK POST l\j OCTOBER 2014 (

ENERGY

October kick-off for new exploration bidding YUTHANA PRAIWAN

The Energy Minisuy expects the 21st round of petroleum exploration bidding will open this month.

Energy Minister Narongchai Akrasanee said the move was aimed at bolstering Thailand's petroleum reserves, projected to drop to a critically low level in the near future.

The bidding round has been delayed since 2011 due to protests from environmental activists.

Proven domestic 'petroleum reserves are expected to last only six more years.

"No additional exploration would mean no additional gas resoUrces. Then production from present fields wo uld decline starting in 2016," Mr Narongchai said.

The 20th round of exploration bidding opened to investors in 2007, after which viable reserves were found in only five of the 28 blocks awarded licences.

The minisuy has also accelerated tallcs with the Cambodian government regarding collaboration on offshore petroleum fields in the overlapping claims area in the Gulf of Thailand, the deve]opmentof which has been delayed for decaqes.

The Mineral Fuels Department said the 21st round would cover 29 blocks 17 in the Northeast and the rest in central Thailand.

Siri Jirapongphan, executive director of the Petroleum Institute ofThailand, said if

domestic gas reserves started running dry in 2021, Thailand would be forced to rely on gas imports for an estimated 85% of energy consumption in 2030.

Under the existing power development plan, ifThailand finds no additional petroleum resources and continues to rely heavily on gas to fuel power prodUction, the power tartff will rise by an estimated 41% to an average of 5.50 baht a kilowatt-hour in 2021 from 3.90 per kWh now.

Mr Siri said liquefied natural gas (LNG) was an inevitable choice for Thailand even though the cost was double that of Gulf of Thailand reserves.

' ''We 'll need another seven or eight receiving terntinals; said Mr Siri.

He said the US Geological Survey recently reported the Korat Plateau in northeastern Thailand could have 5 trillion cubic feet in reserves.

However, that is an initial report, and exploration is needed to verify the data.

Energy permanent secretary Areepong Bhucha-oom said his ministry planned to diversify fuel in thE: 2015 power development plan (PDP), now being revised. '

"If it looks ·like we'll have to depend too much un LNG, we may expand imports of clean coal and nuclear power in the PDP;' he said.

As a short-term solution, Thailand is expected to introduce energy-savings and -efficiency campaigns this year.

---------------------------------

57 THE NATION OCTOBER 20141

Thailand to have lowest growth in region

ERICH PARPART THE NATION

THE WORLD BANK has projected that Thailand will generate the lowest economic growth in the region next year because ofstructural problems in the export sector and unresolved political issues despite some clarity provided by the rulingjunta.

The bank has provided the same projection as the Bankoffhailandfor expansion ofgross domestic product expansion this year at 1.5 per cent, which was revised down from its 3per-cent projection in April. It also lowered the growth forecast for 2015 from 4.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent, which is lower than the Thai central bank's 4~8-per-cent projection for next year.

The World Bank's 4.S-per-cent expectation for the Kingdom's economic growth in 2015 is lower than the 6.7 per cent it has projected for Philippines, 5.6 per cent for Indonesia, 5.5 per cent for Vietnam, and 4.9percentfor Malaysia. Itis also lower than its projections for developing East Asia (excltiding China), at 5.3 percent, andAsean at5.0percent.

Kirida Bhaopichitr, the World Bank's senior country economist in Thailand, said the structural problems within the country's export sector would take some time to solve, while recovery in domestic consumption would remain gradual, because of a high level of household debt and the expected increase of political uncertainty next year.

Meanwhile, the slower-thanexpected recoveries ofthe export sector and domestic consumption will lead to subdued private investment b~useoflower domestic and foreign demand despite economic clarity from the government's infrastructure

. plan and the launch of the Asean Economic Community in 2015.

"TheWorld Bankhas revised down the country's CDP growth [forecasts] for 2014 and 2015 because the recoveries of consumption, domestic

in 2015: World Bank

REAL GOP GROWTH Actual figures and projections of Thailand real GDP growth for 2013-2015

Category 2013 2014 2015

(percentage

year on year)

GOP 2.9 1.5 3.5 ..' 1:0 · -'" 0.8 u_ 0.2 0.3 1.5..

"3.4 ,';.-,.. -

"2.ES ' .;

.. ...: .

Exports of goods

- ~ lt~~: '':'{:xP9iis:oTservices"" Net foreign demand 1.6

NATION GRAPHICSSource: The Nation

investment, and exports in the second half of this year is slower than expected even though the global economy is recovering and there is a functioning government in place, since there are still problems in some sectors," Kirida said.

"The most critical problem that has damaged and will hamper the

Ulrich Zachau, World Bankcountry director, said the institution welcomed the fact that the government had laid out a clear political road map that will eventually lead to a return to democratic elections. ' So far the timetable has been kept, which provides some confidence. At the same time, however, the people

but the expansion of domestic consumption would only be gradual. People are still not sure about their future incomes, while the high level of household debt is an added constraint.

'The private sector will only invest ifthere is a potential that it will have to produce more for export or

"THE PRIVATE SEnOR WilL ONLY INVEST IF THERE IS APOTENTIAL THAT IT WilL HAVE TO

PRODUCE MORE FOR EXPORT OR DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION."

coun.try's economic growth this year and the next is within the e}.:portsector. This was caused by lower competitiveness in terms ofthe products that are being exported, and this problem cannot be fixed this year or

, next year, since it is a long-term structural problem," she noted.

are still wary on what is goingto happen next year, and uncertainty surrounding the recoveries of major economies is also something Thailand has to keep aneye on.

Kirida said the tourism sector was expect to be better next year thanks to the increase in political stability,

domestic consumption, butsincewe expected export and consum ption to grow at a slow pace, the expansion of private investment will also be sluggish," she said.

Kirida said the capacity utilisation rate (which measures how much a company uses its production

capacity) of companies in Thailand was cur'rently ' 60 per cent. Companies might feel that they do not have to invest more, since they have not fully disposed ofwhat they have already produced. The normal rate of capacity utilisation is' about 90 per cenJ.

Kiridasaid the latest World Bank report on Thailand did not take into account the stimulus package that was recently. introduced, but the package should be able to accelerate the government's budget-disbursement rate. This should belp GDP growth somewhat. Tbe World Bank expects Thailand's total consumption (public and private) to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2015,' which is more than the O.B per cent that is expected for this year.

38BANGKOK POST OCTOBER 2014 World Bank revises Thailand's

growth to 1.50/0 PATHOM SANGWONGWANICH

Despite rising hopes stemming from the 324.5-billion- baht stimulus measures, Thailand's economy this year is projected to grow by only 1.5% due to the slow recovery in domestic conslimption and exports, says the World Bank.

But a rebound in tourism and increased public spending coupled with an export recovery would support next year's growth momentum reaching 3.5%.

Tepid growth rates in private consumption and exports, projected at 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively, are the main factors contributing to this year's downward revision of economic growth momentum from April's

3% forecast, said Ulrich Zachau, the World Bank's Bangkok-based counny directorfor Southeast Asia.

Economic growth in the second half of this year is expected at 3% on an annual basis, supported by net exports and public investment together with a slow recovery in private conswnption and private investment.

Besides seasonal factors, eroding'rxport competitiveness in technological production and problematic labour competitiveness are considered long-tern structural factors that have caused a slow recovery

. in Thai exports, Mr Zachau said. "These structural factors are [expected]

to stay for the long haul, and that's why we

believe Thai exports will continue to grow, but more slowly than those of other countries until Thailand finds a way to address these structural factors;' said Mr Zachau.

The economy contracted bYO.1 % in the first half as political unrest took a toll on economic activity, while exports in .the first eight months decllned by 1.4% year-onyear to US$151 billion.

Mr Zachau welcomed thegovemment's most recent stimulus measures, particularly the one-time subsidy paymentforlowincome rice farmers, expecting the package will add up to 1.4% to GDP growth over the two-year period of2014-15, given that the disbursement rate is in line with government projections.

The World Bank estimates additional government spending will boost GDP growth by 0.8% this year and 1.5% next year.

The government last Wednesday approved a 324.5-billion-baht stimulus package, which covers expediting 129 billion baht in disbursement from the fiscal2015 investment budget, using leftover funds from the Thai Khem Khaeng project for repair work under the Education and Public Health ministries as well as for irrigation projects, and a cash handout of up to 15,000 baht per rice-fiffi11ing household.

Mr Zachau said the bank recommended Thailand develop four key areas to enhance its economic growth prosperity.

They are upgrading competitiveness

of merchandise exports; improving rural . education standards and hu:man resource skills; addressing social inequality through ' tax reforms, particularly property tax; and reducing intensive energy conswnption.

Regarding the move to implement an inheritance tax, the tax itself would contribute little to government coffers but could help to reduce social inequality, Mr

. Zachau said. Risks to economic gro....'th next year

include global economic uncertainties, particularly in theeuro zone, and domestic political uncertainty, he added.

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