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LTISD Demographic Update
Session V – February 26, 2015
Overview - History of LTISD
Established in 1981, originally part of Dripping Springs ISD
LTISD Began with a single, permanent schoolhouse with two portable buildings home to approximately 500 students
At the time, the population of Lakeway “resort/retirement” community was approximately 800 residents
Today, LTISD’s 118 square mile boundary includes cities of Lakeway, The Hills, Bee Cave, and Briarcliff serving approximately 8800 students and 22,000 residents
Overview
Texas 5 million students
13% African American51% Hispanic30% White6% Other60% Eco Disadvantaged
80,000 new students a year1030 DistrictsOver 8200 campusesOver 640,000 employees
Lake Travis ISD8800 students
1% African American19% Hispanic72% White8% Other14% Eco Disadvantaged
600 new students this year
9 campuses1050 employees
Student Enrollment1
98
19
81
98
19
81
98
19
81
98
19
81
99
19
91
99
19
91
99
19
91
99
19
91
99
19
92
00
20
03
00
20
02
00
20
02
00
20
02
00
20
02
01
20
12
01
20
12
01
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Student Enrollment1
98
19
81
98
19
81
98
19
81
98
19
81
99
19
91
99
19
91
99
19
91
99
19
91
99
19
92
00
20
03
00
20
02
00
20
02
00
20
02
00
20
02
01
20
12
01
20
12
01
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Fast Growth School Coalition90 out of 1030 districts qualityAccount for 80% of state’s growth over last five years
52
85
88
05
Previous 10 Years:66.6% increase (3520 students)
Student Enrollment - Projection1
98
19
8
19
8
19
8
19
9
19
9
19
9
19
9
19
9
20
0
30
0
20
0
20
0
20
0
20
1
20
1
20
1
20
1
20
1
20
2
20
2
20
2
1,556
3,111
4,667
6,222
7,778
9,333
10,889
12,444
14,000
15,556
8805
Student Enrollment - Projection1
98
19
8
19
8
19
8
19
9
19
9
19
9
19
9
19
9
20
0
30
0
20
0
20
0
20
0
20
1
20
1
20
1
20
1
20
1
20
2
20
2
20
2
1,556
3,111
4,667
6,222
7,778
9,333
10,889
12,444
14,000
15,556
8805
14,472
Our demographer predicts that in the 10 years between 2014 and 2024, LTISD will add:
5667 students - or 64%Compared to 3520 or 66% over past 10 years
Total Enrollment(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey, 2010-11
Numeric Changein StudentEnrollment
Fall 2013to
Fall 2014
(pre-PEIMS)
Total Enrollment(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey, 2010-11
Percent Changein StudentEnrollment
Fall 2013to
Fall 2014
(pre-PEIMS)
Total Enrollment(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey, 2010-11
Numeric Changein StudentEnrollment
Fall 2009to
Fall 2014
(pre-PEIMS)
Total Enrollment(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey, 2010-11
Percent Changein StudentEnrollment
Fall 2009to
Fall 2014
(pre-PEIMS)
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Past Growth RatesE
nrol
lmen
t
5.11%5.25%
4.65%7.05%
5.52%6.80%
4.57%
5.34%5.75%
5.33%
6.53%
Sept 2013% Chg
13-14 / 12-13 Sept 2014% Chg
14-15 / 13-14
EE 28 0.00% 21 -25.00%
PK 100 21.95% 114 14.00%
KN 571 4.96% 602 5.43%
1 602 6.55% 655 8.80%
2 611 0.83% 650 6.38%
3 653 9.02% 691 5.82%
4 634 3.09% 716 12.93%
5 670 12.98% 696 3.88%
6 624 -0.64% 730 16.99%
7 689 7.49% 654 -5.08%
8 658 11.71% 711 8.05%
9 659 1.85% 713 8.19%
10 620 5.26% 654 5.48%
11 594 4.95% 627 5.56%12 544 5.22% 562 3.31%
Total 8,257 5.74% 8,796 6.53%
Historical
Growth Trends
Kindergarten Enrollment vs. Births
Total Enrollment(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey, 2010-11
EconomicallyDisadvantaged
Student Population
2013-14
Rank District NamePercent
Disadvantaged1 CARROLL ISD 2.1%2 EANES ISD 3.1%3 COPPELL ISD 10.2%4 FRISCO ISD 11.3%5 LAKE TRAVIS ISD 12.6%6 ALLEN ISD 15.8%7 LEANDER ISD 18.9%8 NORTHWEST ISD 19.0%9 GRAPEVINE-COLLEYVILLE ISD 22.4%
10 MIDLOTHIAN ISD 23.4%11 TOMBALL ISD 23.5%12 KELLER ISD 23.5%13 ROCKWALL ISD 25.0%14 MONTGOMERY ISD 25.7%
Economically Disadvantaged Student Population: 2013-14
* Of 131 Districts with 7,500 or more students
Total Enrollment(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey, 2010-11
Percent of StudentsPassing STAAR
(Level II or III)3rd-8th Grade
2013-14
Rank District Name 2013-14 Enrollment
Level II or III
1 CARROLL ISD 7,812 97.4%
2 EANES ISD 8,005 94.6%3 LAKE TRAVIS ISD 8,257 92.9%4 ALLEN ISD 20,381 92.0%
5 FRISCO ISD 46,053 91.9%
6 FRIENDSWOOD ISD 6,071 90.5%
7 PROSPER ISD 6,413 90.1%
8 COPPELL ISD 11,364 89.7%
9 DRIPPING SPRINGS ISD 5,107 88.8%
10 WYLIE ISD 13,726 88.3%
11 TOMBALL ISD 12,499 87.5%
12 KATY ISD 67,213 87.2%
13 BOERNE ISD 7,229 86.8%
14 PLANO ISD 54,822 86.1%
2013-14 STAAR Results - 3rd-8th Grade Districts with >7,500 Students
Unique Demographic Characteristics
Lake Travis I.S.D.
• Low Economically Disadvantaged population (12.6%)[59.8% in Texas]Lake Travis ISD ranked 5th in Texas
• High STAAR passage rate (92.9%) [71.8% in Texas]Lake Travis ISD ranked 4th in Texas
• Highly educated population (57% have bachelor’s degree) [41% in Austin and 27.6% in Texas]
• High median income level ($96,235) [$61,750 in the Austin metro area]
Private Schools
Current Enrollment
From LTISD in KN+
Enrollment in 5 yrs.
From LTISD in KN+
Abercon International School 2.5yrs-5th 75 3 170 7AESA Prepatory Academy (Polo Tennis Academy)
2nd-12th 90 17 100 40
Austin Montessori School PK-9th 330 15 375 17
Austin Waldorf School K-12th 398 0 400 0
Bluebonnet Montessori School PK-4th 70 11 85 13Cedars Montessori School PK-6th 140 12 160 14Concordia High School 9th-12th 132 3 200 4Dripping Springs Christian Academy K-12th 43 1 100 2Hill Country Christian School of Austin PK-12th 550 0 600 0Lake Hills Montessori Bee Cave 2yrs-K 125 34 125 34Primrose School of Bee Cave Inf-K, AS 189 9 190 10
Current Enrollment Projected 5 YearsGrades
Private Schools
Current Enrollment
From LTISD in KN+
Enrollment in 5 yrs.
From LTISD in KN+
Redeemer Lutheran 15mos-8th 478 7 500 8
Regent School of Austin K-12th 990 50 1,005 50
St Andrew's Episcopal School 1st-12th 850 17 900 18St Gabriel's Catholic School PK-8th 415 56 430 58St Michael's Catholic School 9th-12th 380 19 400 20St Stephen's Episcopal School 6th-12th 688 0 690 0Trinity Episcopal School K-8th 475 24 525 26
Total 6,418 277 6,955 320
3.10% 2.70%Overall percentage of LTISD residents
in private schools:
Current Enrollment Projected 5 YearsGrades
L.T.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student Enrollment
Population & Survey Analysts
Annual Employment Trends
6 Month AnnualPercent PercentChange Change
City of Austin Employment 463,575 469,546 474,699 1.10% 2.40% Unemployment Rate 4.4 3.8 3.5
Travis County
Employment 595,262 602,929 609,546 1.10% 2.40% Unemployment Rate 4.6 4.0 3.8
November 2013
May 2014
November 2014
Pie chartEmployment
L.T.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning
Population & Survey Analysts
Development Density
% of LTISD
Built out 26%
Active 18%
Undev. planned
5%
Undev. no plans
25%
Parks 2%
Preserve 16%Water 9%
Inhibitors to
Development
Utility Districts in Lake Travis
I.S.D.(per CAPCOG)
Utility Districts in Lake Travis
I.S.D.(per TCAD )
Parcels for Sale >5 acres
November 2014
Ownership
Changes
2011 to 2012and
2012 to 2014
Latest Improvements Highlands Blvd. Rough Hollow/Highlands Serene Hills Dr. Serene Hills Bee Cave Pkwy. Ladera Ranch Pedernales Summit Pkwy. Sweetwater
Future ImprovementsCurrent Improvements and Widening of SH 71
Potential Reimers-Peacock Rd. Pedernales Summit Pkwy. Extension Long-term: Potential Bee Creek Rd. Widening
Lake Travis I.S.D. Future Transportation
Transportation and Other Infrastructure Improvements Act as Local Economic Development Stimuli
# %
Subdivisions - Built-out 4,795 4,762 -33 -1% ---
Subdivisions - Actively Building 2,431 2,977 546 22% 94%
Apartments 194 219 25 13% 4%
Condo 304 301 -3 -1% ---
MHP 86 94 8 9% 1%
Percent of Growth
Added Students 2013 to 2014
Resident Students in 2014
Resident Students in 2013
Student Growth by Type of Housing
Largest Growth Single-Family Developments
2014-19 2019-24 2014-243K Sweetwater Ranch 376 586 9623D Bella Colinas and Terra Colinas 302 352 6543A West Cypress Hills 263 318 5813D The Province / Hatchett Tract 152 420 5723H Spanish Oaks at Bee Cave 161 120 2813D Grumbles parcels 50 210 260
1,555 2,392 3,947
5,274 5,571 10,845Total Subdivision Housing Projected:
New Housing OccupanciesSingle-Family Developments
Planning Unit
Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions):
Largest Growth Multi-Family Developments
2014-19 2019-24 2014-243H West Village at Spanish Oaks 480 670 1,1503K Sweetwater Ranch 100 250 3508D The Mansions at Lakeway / Serene Hills 300 0 3005B Cielo Apartments 298 0 2983H Cassandra Interests / Other Owners 100 150 2503D Grumbles Parcels 100 150 2508F Morningside; aka The Estates 203 0 203
1,581 1,220 2,801
2,133 1,412 3,545
New Housing OccupanciesMulti-Family Developments
Planning Unit
Total (Above-Listed Complexes):
Total Apt & Condo Housing Projected:
Projected New
Housing Occupanci
es 2014 – 2024
Year Ending in October:
Single Family
Multi Family
Condo Housing
Total New Housing Units
2015 962 590 24 1,576 2016 1,102 420 9 1,531 2017 1,097 320 34 1,451 2018 1,082 344 41 1,467 2019 1,031 301 50 1,382 2020 1,070 290 57 1,417 2021 1,129 300 41 1,470 2022 1,164 312 10 1,486 2023 1,094 212 0 1,306 2024 1,114 190 0 1,304
2014-2019 5,274 1,975 158 7,4072019-2024 5,571 1,304 108 6,9832019-2024 10,845 3,279 266 14,390
Projected New Housing Occupancies
December 2014to
October 2019
Projected New Housing Occupancies
October 2019
to October
2024
Projected New
Housing Occupancies
December 2014to
October 2024
L.T.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student Enrollment
Population & Survey Analysts
Ratios of Students per Occupied Household
Average Ratio of Students per Occupied
Single-Family Home: 0.45
Average Ratio of Student per Occupied
Multi-Family Unit/Condo: 0.26
Planning Unit
Development MPC Ratio5A Canyon Vista Lake Pointe 1.495A The Preserve Lake Pointe 1.235A The Landing Lake Pointe 1.06
12A Armadillo RV 1.006C Lake Oak Estates 0.972C Canyon Ridge Rough Hollow 0.96
10A Costa Bella II 0.943E Rocky Creek Ranch 0.935A The Estates Lake Pointe 0.91
12B Reserve at Hudson Bend I 0.90
Highest Ratios of Students per Household
Planning Unit
Development MPC Ratio
1A At the Park RV 0.003A West Cypress Hills - Ph. II 0.008B Yaupon Creek 0.028B Academy Place 0.033D Sunset RV Park 0.031A Marina Club Villas 0.051B Edgewater Beach 0.088B Lakeway V 0.091B Lakewood Estates 0.092A Hazy Hill Ranchettes 0.10
10A Buffalo Gap 0.111B Big Bee Creek 0.11
Lowest Ratios of Students per Household
L.T.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student Enrollment
Population & Survey Analysts
Moderate Growth Scenario
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Enrollment 9,347 9,919 10,532 11,118 11,682 12,213 12,785 13,352 13,894 14,472
% Growth 6.3% 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.7% 4.4% 4.1% 4.2%
Growth 551 573 613 586 564 531 572 567 542 578
Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot
Three Scenarios of Growth
En
rollm
en
t ModerateGrowth
2019 – 11,6822024 – 14,472
High Growth2019 – 11,9422024 – 15,230
Low Growth2019 – 11,4722024 – 13,845
2011
2015
2019
2024
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
Projected Resident EE-5th Grade Students
by
Current Elementary
Attendance Zone
Elementary Long Range Planning
Current Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Bee Cave Elementary
Students Projected 602 663 722 784 863 928 989 1,075 1,171 1,285 1,395Percent Utilization 71% 78% 85% 92% 102% 109% 116% 126% 138% 151% 164%
Lake Pointe ElementaryStudents Projected 642 649 658 676 696 719 738 760 778 795 809Percent Utilization 84% 85% 86% 89% 91% 94% 97% 100% 102% 104% 106%
Lake Travis ElementaryStudents Projected 845 864 911 928 943 957 967 979 988 997 1,008Percent Utilization 91% 93% 98% 100% 101% 103% 104% 105% 106% 107% 108%
Lakeway ElementaryStudents Projected 728 736 718 736 746 757 762 767 772 775 785Percent Utilization 86% 87% 84% 87% 88% 89% 90% 90% 91% 91% 92%
Serene HillsStudents Projected 768 859 890 963 1,023 1,062 1,096 1,136 1,164 1,180 1,195Percent Utilization 90% 101% 105% 113% 120% 125% 129% 134% 137% 139% 141%
West Cypress HillsStudents Projected 557 639 732 792 856 921 984 1,078 1,179 1,306 1,450Percent Utilization 66% 75% 86% 93% 101% 108% 116% 127% 139% 154% 171%
Projected Resident 6th-8th Grade Students
by
CurrentMiddle School
Attendance Zone
Middle School Long Range Planning
Current Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Hudson Bend Middle School
Students Projected 1,133 1,162 1,209 1,231 1,248 1,268 1,279 1,287 1,289 1,297 1,311Percent Utilization 94% 97% 101% 103% 104% 106% 107% 107% 107% 108% 109%
Lake Travis Middle SchoolStudents Projected 958 1,040 1,239 1,369 1,512 1,622 1,716 1,850 1,940 2,047 2,159Percent Utilization 80% 87% 103% 114% 126% 135% 143% 154% 162% 171% 180%
High School Long Range Planning
Current Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Lake Travis High School + 9th Grade Annex
Capacity 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500Students Projected 2,556 2,737 2,840 3,057 3,232 3,446 3,682 3,849 4,063 4,208 4,364Percent Utilization 73% 78% 81% 87% 92% 98% 105% 110% 116% 120% 125%
Lake Travis I.S.D.
Demographic Update
February 26, 2015
