Low Emissions Energy Development for Global Climate Change … · 2013-07-22 · ([email protected]) Abstract: This paper study on the potential of low-emission energy that can

Jurnal EKOSAINS | Vol. II | No. 1 | Maret 2010 75

Low Emissions Energy Development for Global Climate Change Mitigation

Armi SusandiExpert Group of Atmospherical SciencesFaculty of Earth Sciences and Technology

Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesa No. 10 Bandung 40132 Indonesia([email protected])

Abstract:

Thispaperstudyonthepotentialoflow-emissionenergythatcanbedevelopedinIndone-sia,whichcomesfromnaturalresources.Thisstudyisconsideredimportantastheatten-tionofIndonesiatotheincreaseincarbonemissionsfromenergyandforestrysectors,aswellaseffortstomitigateglobalclimatechange.Studyoflow-emissionenergypotentialinthisresearchareto:windenergy,energymini/microhydro,solarenergy,geothermalenergy,andbiodieselenergy.Developmentoflowemissionenergyhasnotreachedtheoptimalpointinthedevelopmentofenergyexceptthemini/microhydro,andbiodiesel.Developmentoflow-emissionenergyinthefutureisexpectedtoreachthetargetofna-tionalenergymixin2025throughspecialpolicyandtechnologydevelopment.

Keyword:nationalenergymix,low-emissionenergy,theabsorptionofcarbonemissions,thescenariooptimization

I.Introduction

National energy policy aims to guaranteethe security of supply (security of sup-ply)ofenergyinsupporting thecountry'seconomywhich isdrivingnationaldevel-opment.Asacountrythatmanyofits in-habitantsandhavealargearea,distributionofdevelopmentalsomeansequalopportu-nitytoobtainsufficientenergy.Oneofthenationalenergydevelopmentstrategyistoincreasediversificationofenergywithlowemissionsenergyutilization.Thisisinlinewiththegeneralpolicythatprioritizesen-ergyutilizationofdomesticenergy.Whileenergy exports, especially oil and naturalgasstillplaysanimportantroleasasourceof national income for national develop-ment.

Therefore, the development of renewableenergy / low emission becomes very im-portantandurgenttocontinuetobedone.In addition to the national energy supplysecurity interests in maintaining the sus-tainability of development, developinglow-emissionenergywill participate tookpart in mitigating climate change causedby increasing concentrations of carbondioxide gases in the atmosphere.As it isknownthattheburningoffossilfuelsasthemainsourceofincreasedconcentrationsofcarbon dioxide (CO2).Therefore, the de-velopmentoflowemissionrenewableen-ergywillbeworthdoubleforthenationaleconomyandglobalenvironment.

Indonesia has the potential of low-emis-sionenergythatisbigenough,butitsuti-lizationtomeetenergyneedsarestillvery

Jurnal EKOSAINS | Vol. II | No. 1 | Maret 201076

Low Emmisions Energy Development Armi Susandi Low Emmisions Energy Development Armi Susandi

small.Utilizationof lowenergyemissionisstilllimitedcommercialgeothermalandhydropower. The use of commercial bio-mass,energybomassaonlyforhouseholdand industrial wood (cogeneration). ForthatefforttodevelopalternativeenergyinIndonesia'senergystructureisveryimpor-tanttocontinuetobedoneanddeveloped.Somelow-emissionenergywiththepoten-tial tobedevelopedare: (1)windenergy,(2)mini/microhydro,(3)geothermal,(4)biomass,(5)solarenergy,(6)oceanenergy.Inthispaperwewillstudyallthelowen-ergyunlesstheenergyofthesea.

Thispaperwillprovideanassessmentonthelow-energyemissionsinIndonesiathatlaceemissionmitigationofglobalclimatechangewith increasingCO2emissions inthe atmosphere. The next section of thepaper we will describe the carbon emis-sions from energy and forestry sector ofIndonesia. Then on the third sectionwillanalyzethegovernment'spolicyonenergymixby2025.Furthermore,thefourthpartwillexaminethepotentialofIndonesiaandtheemissionoflowenergyabsorptionca-pabilityofcarbonwillbepresentedinthenextsection.Conclusionsandfuturestud-iesintothelastpartofthispaper.

2.CarbonEmissionsProjections in Indo-nesia

Indonesia has large reserves of oil, gas,coal and a significant moment. Existinggas will be in production until the next70 years, in the current production level(EUSAI,2001).Meanwhile,coalwillbe-comethemainstayofenergyfordomesticconsumption in Indonesia (canbe inpro-duction until 500 years into the future inthecurrentproduction level).Meanwhile,oilenergywillonlysurviveinthenext17yearsaftertheyear2000.Indonesia's energy consumption is domi-

natedbyenergyfromfossilfuels,whichisabout3.9quadrillionBritishthermalunits(BTU) or about 95 percent of total en-ergy consumption in Indonesia (DGEED,2000).Oiluptonowdominatetheenergyconsumption of Indonesia, approximately56%of the totalenergy in2000.Further-more, the gas is consumed by 31% andcoalfor8%oftotalenergyconsumptioninIndonesia(IEA,2000).

From Indonesia's energy consumptionlevelabove, theninyear2000, totalCO2emissionsfromIndonesia'senergyrequire-mentisequalto62millionmetrictonsofcarbon,42%isderivedfromtheenergyin-dustry(includingpowerplants),therateofgrowthofCO2fromthissourceissebesat7%peryear(othersourcesthatanaverageof 3.3% per year). Furthermore, 25% oftheindustrialsector,24%ofthetranspor-tation sector, and 9% comes fromhouse-hold (SME-ROI, 1996).According to theMergemodel,emissionsfromprimaryen-ergy consumption in Indonesia amountedto64millionmetrictonsofcarbon(Figure2.1). Carbon emissions from energy sec-tor increasedsubstantiallyuntil it reachesitspeakin2060,emissionsreachedabout158 millions metric tons of carbon. Fur-thermore,theroleofemissionfreeenergy(Susandi,2004)willdominatethenextpe-riodon themarket for Indonesian energytoreplacefossilenergy.At theendof the21stcentury,emissionswilldeclinegradu-ally and reach110millionmetric tonsofcarbon(Figure2.1).

Furthermore,fromtheIndonesianforestrysector also contributed no small amountof emissions, mainly from deforestation.InthereportoftheUNFCCC(SME-ROI,1999) reported that changes in land useanddeforestationactivitieshasresultedinemissionsofupto42millionmetrictonsofcarbonin1994.In2000,themergeofcar-bonemissionsfromdeforestationactivities



amounted to 42.1 million metric tons ofcarbon(Figure2.2).In2000thedeforesta-tioninIndonesiaisestimatedat2.3millionhaperyear(Sarietal.2001).Furthermore,deforestation activities is expected to in-

creaseandreachedthehighestpointintheyear2030carbonemissionsby56millionmetric tons. After that carbon emissionsfromtheforestrysectorwilldecreasegrad-uallyuntiltheyear2100(Figure2.2).

0

3 0

6 0

9 0

1 2 0

1 5 0

1 8 0

2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 6 0 2 0 8 0 2 1 0 0Ta h un

Juta

met

rik to

n ka

rbon

Source: Susandi, 2005

Figure2.1.Projectionofcarbonemissionfromenergysector

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Tahun

Juta

met

rik to

n ka

rbon

Figure2.2.Projectionofcarbonemissionfromreforestation


3.EnergyPotentialLowCarbonEmissionandAbsorption This section will then be assessed andquantifiedprojectionsoflowenergyemis-sionofIndonesiabasedontwoscenarios,iebusinessasusualscenario(scenario)andthe optimization scenario. Optimization

scenario developed here is a function of(1) economic growth (Y), (2) Population(P), and (3) improvement of technology(T).Eachlow-emissionenergythatwillbestudied below is a variation of the abovefunctions and can vary from a low-emis-sion energy with other low-emission en-ergy.While themagnitude (mass)growth



isafunctionofthevalue/energydatapre-viously.Theapproachusedwasdevelopedwiththeeconometricapproachandthede-termination of the size variable using theprincipleofelasticity.

=

−−−

−

1111 ,,*

t

t

t

t

t

ttt T

TYY

PPfETET (3.1)

where;

tET = Production of low-emission energy (ET) in year t

1−tET = Production of low-emission energy (ET) in year t-1

tP = Population in the year t

1−tP = Population in the year t-1

tY = Economic growth in year t

1−tY = Economic growth in year t-1

tT = Improved technology in year t

1−tT = Improved technology in year t-1

Generalequationusedintheprojectionoflow-emission energy / renewable energy(ET) is a national, as shown in equation(3.1)thefollowing:

Populationgrowthusingtheresultsofthestudypopulationandeconomicgrowth inIndonesia, which was obtained from theresearch Susandi (2004), while technol-ogydevelopmentisafunctionofpercapita

economicgrowthinIndonesia.Population,economicdevelopmentandeconomicpercapitaofIndonesiauntiltheyear2100,re-spectivelyshowninFigure3.1,Figure3.2andFigure3.3.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Tahun

Popu

lasi (

Juta

)

Figure3.1.IndonesianPopulationProjectionSource: Susandi, 2004



0123456789

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Tahun

GD

P (T

rilyu

n D

olar

)

Figure3.2.ProjectionsofEconomicGrowth(GDP)Indonesia


0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Tahun

GD

P pe

rkap

ita (D

olar

)

Figure3.3.ProjectionofIndonesia'sGDPpercapita


Equation(3.1)isusedasageneralequationfortheprojectionofeachlow-emissionen-ergyof Indonesia,whichwillbegiven indetailinthesectionsbelow.

3.1.Mini/microhydropower

Energy installed capacityofmini /microhydropowerintheyear1998amountedto21MWandan increase in theyear2005amounted to 84 MW. Energy develop-mentsmini/microhydroselectednextisafunctionofpopulationincrement(P)andeconomic growth (Y).The equation usedlow-emissionenergyprojections(scenario)


be increased as a function of economicgrowth,thenthisscenarioisreferredtoasthescenariooptimization,sothatequation(3.3)becomes:

fromtheenergymini/microhydroistheequation(3.2)asfollows:

=

−−

−

11)1()( ,*

t

t

t

ttMhtMh Y

YPP

fETET (3.2)

It is assumed that the business de-velopment of low energy emissionfromthemini/microhydrothroughinvestment and financing policiespatternasproposedinthisstudywill

=

−

−

1)1()( *

t

ttMhtMh Y

YfETET (3.3)

Theprojectiondevelopmentoflowenergyemission from themini /micro hydro as

giveninFigure3.4.follows:

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Tahun

MW

dasar optimalisasi

Figure3.4.EnergyProjectionsMini/MicroHydroAssociationandOptimizationSce-nario

Seen that the energy micro-mini / mi-crohydro rise to264MW(Off theGrid)or 0.08% of total national energy (target0.1%)withthebasicscenarioin2025andreached413MW(Off theGrid)with theoptimizationscenario(exceeding the tar-get,or1.25%,whilethetargetinthissce-narioamountsto0.216%oratotalof330MW(OfftheGrid)).

3.2.Wind

Windenergyprojectionsforthebasicscenarioisafunctionofeconomicgrowth(Y)andtechnologicaldevelopment(T),asgiveninequation(3.4)follows:



portfromgovernmentsisafunctionofeco-nomicgrowth(Y)only,seeequation(3.5).

=

−−

−

11)1()( ,*

t

t

t

ttAtA T

TYY

fETET (3.4)

While for the scenario optimization withthepatternofinvestmentandfundingsup-

=

−

−

1)1()( *

t

ttAtA Y

YfETET (3.5)

Figure 3.5, shows projections for the ba-sic conditions and optimization of condi-tions.Shownthatwindenergycontributes2.1MW(OfftheGrid)in2025ontheba-sicscenarioandreached2.5MW(Offthe

Grid) in scenario optimization or equal0.014% lower than the target of 0.028%,amountingto5MW(Offgrid),seeFigure3.5.

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Tahun

MW

dasar optimalisasi

Figure3.5.ProjectedWindEnergyAssociationandOptimizationScenario

3.3.Sun

Furthermore,econometricapproachtotheequation(3.6)willdescribethelow-energyprojectionsofsolaremissions,thefunction

ofthegrowthofpopulation(P)andtechno-logicaldevelopment(T).

=

−−

−

11)1()( ,*

t

t

t

ttStS T

TPP

fETET (3.6)

Whileforthescenarioapproachwasusedoptimaslisasi technology functions (4.T)thatspurthegrowthofsolarenergy,astheimplicationsofgovernmentfundingassis-

tanceinthedevelopmentofthissolarener-gy.Equation(3.7)describestheprojectionofsolarenergy.



tionalmixof28.4MW,whilethetargetistoreach0.02%orequalto80MW(Figure3.3).

=

−

−

1)1()( *

t

ttStS T

TfETET (3.7)

Figure3.7showstheprojectionofthelowenergyemissionsfromsolartothesecondscenario,by2025,solarenergywillyield0.007%ofthetotalenergy(primary)orna-

05

1015202530

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Tahun

MW

dasar optimalisasi

Figure3.7.SolarEnergyProjectionsandtheOptimizingPrimaryScenario

3.4.Biomass

Developmentofbiomassenergyisassumedto be berkembangan with the growth ofpopulation(P)andincreaseddevelopment

oftechnology(T)fromthebiomassitself,therefore equation (3.8) provides projec-tionsforfuturebiomassenergyisthebasicscenario.

=

−−

−

11)1()( ,*

t

t

t

ttBtB T

TPP

fETET (3.8)

While for the optimization scenario, thedevelopmentofbiomassenergydescribed

byequation(3.9).

=

−

−

1)1()( *

t

ttBtB T

TfETET (3.9)

Figure 3.8 shows the second projectionscenario.BasedonFigure3.8,showsthatthe optimal scenario would increase theproductionofbiomass reached1175MW

(1.111)intheyear2025orsurpassthetar-getof810MW(0.766%),whereas in thebasicscenariothatisclosetooptimaltargetfor816MWin2025.



functionofeconomicgrowth(Y)andtech-nologicaldevelopment (T),heat theearthitself. Equation (3.10) and (3.11) provideforthebasicscenarioandthescenarioop-timization.

0200400600800

100012001400

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Tahun

MW

dasar optimalisasi

Figure3.8.BiomassEnergyScenarioProjectionsofPrimaryandOptimization

3.5.Geothermal

Based on an econometric model for thedevelopment of geothermal case of Indo-nesia, it is assumed that the developmentof geothermal energy in Indonesia is a

=

−−

−

11)1()( ,*

t

t

t

ttGtG T

TYY

fETET (3.10)

=

−

−

1)1()( *

t

ttGtG Y

YfETET (3.11)

Figure3.10showingprojectionsofgeothermalenergyinthetwoscenarios.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Tahun

MW

dasar optimalisasi

Figure3.11.GeothermalEnergyProjectionsandtheOptimizingPrimaryScenario



IEA(InternationalEnergyAgency).,2000.Worldconsumptionofprimaryenergy.In-ternationalEnergyAnnual,WorldEnergyConsumption.Sari,A et al., 2001. Doesmoney growthontress?OpportunitiesandChallengesofForestry CDM in Indonesia, Pelangi, Ja-karta.

SME-ROI(StateMinistryforEnvironment,Republic of Indonesia)., 1996. Indonesia:First National Communication under theUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,Jakarta.

Susandi,A.,2004:TheImpactofInterna-tional Green House Gas Emmisions Re-duction on Indonesia. Report on SystemScience.MaxPlanck Institute forMeteo-rology.Hamburg,Jerman.

Susandi,A.,2005.EmisiKarbondanPo-tensiCDMdariSektorEnergidanKehu-tanan Indonesia. Jurnal Teknik Lingkun-gan,ISSN0854–1957,October2005

Susandi,A.,2006.Indonesia’sGeohermal:DevelopmentandCDMPotential.

Seen that the Indonesian geothermal en-ergywillonlyreach3400MWinthebasescenario.Whilethroughtheoptimizationofthemodelscenarioshowsthatgeothermalenergywillreach3940MW,orcontribute1.6%of the total energymix, lower thanthetargetof3.8%oratotalof9500MW(MineralResources,2005),seeFigure3.3andFigure3.9.

4.References

DESDM.,2005.BluePrintKebijakanPen-gelolaanEnergiNasional2005-2025.De-partemen Energi dan Sumber DayaMin-eral.Indonesia.

DGEED(DirectorateGeneralofElectricityandEnergyDevelopment).,2000:Statistikdan Informasi Ketenagalistrikan dan En-ergi(StatisticsandInformationofElectricPowerandEnergy),Jakarta.

DGEED(DirectorateGeneralofElectric-ityandEnergyDevelopment).,2000.Sta-tistics and Information of Electric PowerandEnergy.Jakarta.

EUSAI (Embassyof theUnitedStatesofAmerica in Indonesia)., 2001. PetroleumReportIndonesia.

Low Emmisions Energy Development Armi Susandi

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Low Emissions Energy Development for Global Climate Change … · 2013-07-22 · ([email protected]) Abstract: This paper study on the potential of low-emission energy that can