Mobility and Transport

Rolf Diemer, Head of Unit, MOVE A3 'Economic Analysis & Better Regulation'

Low-emission mobility strategy – projections of the future EU fuel mix

Mobility and Transport

EU strategy for low-emission mobility

• Low-emission mobility: an essential component of the shift to the low-carbon, circular economy

• Level of ambition

GHG emissions from transport at least 60% lower than in 1990 by mid-century, and firmly on the path towards zero.

Emissions of air pollutants from transport to be drastically reduced without delay

• Integrated and comprehensive approach, mix of policy instruments, mutually supporting and reinforcing, based on three main dimensions:

• Efficiency of the transport system

• Low-emission alternative energy for transport

• Low- and zero-emission vehicles

+ cross-cutting initiatives for an enabling environment

Mobility and Transport

Greenhouse gas emissions from transport, including international shipping

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1,60

1,80

2,00

1990

1991

1992

1993

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1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

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2003

2004

2005

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2011

2012

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1990=1

Total Civil Aviation Road Transportation Railways

Total Navigation Other Total transport

Total Civil Aviation

13,1%

Road Transportat

ion 72,8%

Railways 0.6%

Total Navigation

13,0%

Other 0,5%

Mobility and Transport

Pathways/scenarios towards low-emission mobility

Low- and zero-emission vehicles

Ambitious vehicle efficiency standards (VEH scenario)

Low emission alternative energy for transport

Action on advanced renewable fuels (BIO-A and BIO-B scenarios)

Advanced research and innovation in electro-mobility (TECH scenario)

Efficiency of the transport system

Focus on efficiency of the transport system (MOBI scenario)

Focus on efficiency of the transport system and fuel taxation (MOBI-TAX scenario)

Two central scenarios: reflect the 2030 targets and main elements of the 2030 climate and energy framework

27% primary energy consumption reduction (EUCO27 scenario)

30% primary energy consumption reduction (EUCO30 scenario)

Developments under current trends and adopted policies (REF2016 scenario)

Mobility and Transport

Impacts on transport activity

Rail and inland navigation increase their share with highest impact in scenarios adressing the efficiency of the transport system

High-speed rail is projected to undertake 108 billion more passenger kilometres in 2030 relative to 2010

83,3% 79,7% 79,1% 79,1% 79,1% 79,1% 79,1% 79,1% 78,9% 78,8%

7,7% 8,8% 9,4% 9,4% 9,4% 9,4% 9,4% 9,3% 9,5% 9,6%

8,4% 10,9% 10,9% 10,9% 10,9% 10,9% 10,9% 10,9% 11,0% 11,0%

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100%

2010 REF2016 EUCO27 EUCO30 VEH BIO-A BIO-B TECH MOBI MOBI-TAX

Passenger transport (modal shares in 2010 and 2030)

Road Rail Aviation Inland navigation

70,8% 70,7% 69,8% 69,8% 69,9% 69,8% 69,7% 69,9% 69,2% 68,9%

15,4% 16,8% 17,2% 17,2% 17,2% 17,3% 17,3% 17,2% 17,6% 17,7%

13,8% 12,5% 13,0% 12,9% 12,9% 13,0% 13,0% 12,9% 13,3% 13,4%

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2010 REF2016 EUCO27 EUCO30 VEH BIO-A BIO-B TECH MOBI MOBI-TAX

Freight transport (modal shares in 2010 and 2030)

Road Rail Inland navigation

The market shares of passenger and freight road transport decrease in all pathways/scenarios

Mobility and Transport

Increasing energy efficiency

Energy demand in transport declines despite continuous growth in transport activity in all pathways/scenarios: total savings of 16 to 29 Mtoe in 2030 relative to REF2016.

Significant improvements in energy intensity achieved by 2030 in the central scenarios, relative to 2010: 34-35% for passenger transport, 19-20% for freight transport. Highest improvements in VEH scenario (37% for passenger and 21% for freight transport).

-80,0 -60,0 -40,0 -20,0 0,0

EUCO27

EUCO30

VEH

BIO-A

BIO-B

TECH

MOBI

MOBI-TAX

Energy savings in transport - difference to REF2016 (in Mtoe)

2050 - Passenger 2030 - Passenger

2050 - Freight 2030 - Freight

-70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

REF2016

EUCO27

EUCO30

VEH

BIO-A

BIO-B

TECH

MOBI

MOBI-TAX

Energy intensity - passenger and freight transport (growth rates, in %)

Passenger (2010-2050) Passenger (2010-2030)

Freight (2010-2050) Freight (2010-2030)

Mobility and Transport

Impact on the fuel mix

The share of low-emission energy in transport would increase, providing about 15-17% of transport energy demand in 2030.

Oil dependency is expected to decrease by 8-9 percentage points compared to 2010 levels. Oil products would still represent 86-87% of the EU transport sector needs by 2030 compared to 94% today.

Highest reduction in oil dependency would be achieved in VEH, MOBI-TAX (where energy savings and electro-mobility play a significant role) and BIO-A (where the uptake of advanced renewable fuels is also an important contributing factor) by 2030.

25,6%

16,2% 14,2% 14,0% 13,9% 13,9% 14,1% 13,8% 14,1% 14,6%

53,6%

54,2% 53,1% 52,6% 51,2% 52,1% 53,0% 52,3% 52,3% 51,3%

13,7%

16,9% 17,5% 17,8% 18,3% 17,2% 17,2% 17,9% 17,9% 18,0%

0,4%

0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3%

6,7% 12,5% 14,9% 15,3% 16,3% 16,5% 15,5% 15,8% 15,4% 15,8%

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EU

CO

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EU

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30

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BIO

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BIO

-B

TE

CH

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BI

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BI-

TA

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Final energy demand in transport - fuel mix (% of total in 2030)

Gasoline Diesel Jet fuel Fuel oil Alternative fuels

Mobility and Transport

Low-emission alternative energy in transport

Electricity demand is projected to show the highest increase in 2030 relative to REF2016, gaining 0.9-2 percentage points in terms of energy use in transport. Hydrogen also shows an increasing share (0.2-0.5 percentage points).

Natural gas, in particular LNG, would gain 0.8-1.3 additional percentage points by 2030, relative to REF2016 (being used for heavy goods vehicles and in inland navigation).

Liquefied petroleum gas is projected to maintain a rather stable share.

Liquid and gaseous biofuels would represent around 6.3 to 7.7% of transport energy demand by 2030.

1,2% 2,4%

3,4% 3,7% 4,5%

3,7% 3,7% 4,0% 3,7% 3,8% 0,1%

0,2% 0,3% 0,4%

0,3% 0,3% 0,5%

0,3% 0,3%

3,6%

6,0%

6,2% 6,2%

6,2% 7,2%

6,0% 6,1%

6,2% 6,1%

0,1%

0,2% 0,2%

0,2% 0,6%

0,6% 0,2%

0,2% 0,2%

0,3%

1,8%

2,8% 2,9%

2,9% 2,6%

2,7% 2,9% 2,9% 3,2%

1,5%

2,1%

2,2% 2,2%

2,2% 2,2%

2,2% 2,2% 2,2%

2,3%

0,0%

2,0%

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6,0%

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18,0%

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BIO

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TE

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Low-emission alternative energy in transport (% of total final energy demand in 2030)

Electricity Hydrogen Liquid biofuels

Gaseous biofuels Gas (CNG and LNG) Liquefied Petroleum Gas

Mobility and Transport

Research, innovation and competitiveness

By 2030, electrically chargeable vehicles would represent 11-13% of the light duty vehicle stock in the central scenarios and 18% in the VEH scenario. By 2050, they are projected to reach about 68-72% of the light duty vehicle stock.

Transport activity of ICE diesel and gasoline cars in urban transport activity is projected to go down

significantly, from about 76% in 2005 to 33-40% by 2030 and around 6-7% by 2050.

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LDVs by type of powertrain (% of total stock in 2030)

ICE gasoline ICE diesel ICE gaseous Hybrid

Plug-in hybrid Pure electric Fuel cell

Mobility and Transport

CO2 emissions (tank to wheel)

By 2030, CO2 emissions from transport excluding international shipping would go down by 18-22% relative to 2005 (18-19% in the central scenarios).

CO2 emissions from passenger transport decrease by 22-27%; the contribution of freight transport is more limited (decrease by 5-8% by 2030).

For both passenger and freight transport, the CO2 emissions reductions are to a large extent due to improvements in energy intensity while carbon intensity plays a more limited role by 2030. Transport activity works in opposite direction, i.e. towards increasing emissions.

REF2016 EUCO27 EUCO30 VEH BIO-A BIO-B TECH MOBIMOBI-TAX

Change in emissions -15,7% -22,0% -23,5% -26,9% -24,7% -24,1% -24,6% -23,9% -24,4%

Transport activity 24,5% 23,0% 22,9% 22,6% 22,5% 22,5% 22,9% 22,3% 21,8%

Energy intensity -34,7% -38,1% -39,1% -41,0% -39,0% -39,3% -39,6% -38,8% -38,7%

CO2 intensity -5,4% -6,9% -7,3% -8,5% -8,3% -7,3% -7,9% -7,3% -7,4%

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Decomposition analysis for passenger transport for 2005-2030 (% change)

REF2016 EUCO27 EUCO30 VEH BIO-A BIO-B TECH MOBIMOBI-TAX

Change in emissions -1,9% -4,9% -5,7% -7,6% -7,9% -6,6% -5,9% -7,1% -8,4%

Transport activity 27,3% 26,0% 26,0% 25,8% 25,4% 25,5% 26,0% 24,2% 23,2%

Energy intensity -20,9% -21,8% -22,5% -24,2% -22,3% -22,4% -22,6% -22,1% -22,3%

CO2 intensity -8,4% -9,1% -9,2% -9,3% -11,1% -9,7% -9,2% -9,1% -9,3%

-30%

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Decomposition analysis for freight transport for 2005-2030 (% change)

Mobility and Transport

Transport system costs

The average annual net costs for the transport system associated with this change are projected to be €4 to 16 billion (0.03 to 0.10 percentage points of EU's GDP) for 2021-2030, on top of REF2016.

Capital costs for transport equipment are estimated at €15 to 35 billion for 2021-2030 and costs for recharging and refuelling infrastructure at €2 to 3 billion annually in addition to REF2016.

Fuel costs savings would represent about €11 to 33 billion annually. “Co-benefits” in terms of air pollution, noise, congestion and safety are quantified at €6 to 15 billion annually for 2021-2030 compared to REF2016.

Annual averages for 2021-2030 compared to REF2016 (p.p. of GDP)

EUCO27 EUCO30 VEH BIO-A BIO-B TECH MOBI MOBI-TAX

Total costs 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.10

Capital costs 0.12 0.15 0.23 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.11 0.10

Fuel costs (incl. taxation) -0.12 -0.15 -0.21 -0.13 -0.12 -0.16 -0.17 -0.07

Fixed operation costs 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.00 -0.01

Variable non-fuel operation costs 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.18 0.16

External costs -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.04 -0.08 -0.09

Recharging/refuelling infrastructure

0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Mobility and Transport

More information DG MOVE website: http://ec.europa.eu/transport/index_en.htm

Infographics: http://ec.europa.eu/transport/facts-fundings/infographics/index_en.htm

"Scoreboard": http://ec.europa.eu/transport/facts-fundings/scoreboard/index_en.htm

White Paper: http://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/strategies/2011_white_paper_en.htm

Low-emission mobility: http://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/strategies/news/2016-07-20-decarbonisation_en.htm

Modelling: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/themes/strategies/news/doc/2016-07-20-decarbonisation/swd%282016%29244.pdf

https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/energy-modelling

COM work programme2017: http://ec.europa.eu/atwork/pdf/cwp_2017_de.pdf