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Low-carbon Comprehensive Mobility Plan: Overall approach and linkages to nationalplans

Dhar, Subash

Publication date:2013

Link back to DTU Orbit

Citation (APA):Dhar, S. (Author). (2013). Low-carbon Comprehensive Mobility Plan: Overall approach and linkages to nationalplans. Sound/Visual production (digital)

Experience Sharing Workshop in preparation of Low-carbon Comprehensive Mobility Plans in Indian Cities

22 – 23 August 2013 Udaipur

Low-carbon Comprehensive Mobility Plan: Overall approach and linkages to national plans

In partnership with :

Contents

• Background for LCMP • LCMP framework • Linkages to national / global • Conclusions

Background

LCMP Timeline

Nov 2010 – PSC suggestion to build a Low-carbon Comprehensive Mobility Plan (LCMP) based on the methodology for Comprehensive Mobility Plan (CMP)

Oct 2011 – Presentation of draft methodology for LCMP Apr 2012 – Training of Consultants in LCMP methodology Aug 2013 – Presentation of LCMP from 3 cities Dec 2013 – Finalisation of LCMP toolkit

Aims of CMP & LCMP

CMP • Projects to meet present

and future mobility demand and achieve desirable development goal

LCMP • Strategies to reduce CO2

emissions from transport without compromising the accessibility and mobility needs of people

Tasks in LCMP

• Delineation of planning area and planning horizon Task 0

• Analyse existing situation • Setup Transport Planning & Emissions Models for Base Year Task 1

• Modeling Business as Usual (BaU) Scenario Task 2

• Analyse alternative scenarios (4 strategies) Task 3

• Evaluate BAU & Alternative Scenarios using Indicators Task 4

• Investment and Implementation plan • Project Ideas / Policy Actions / Programs Task 5

LCMP Framework:

Modelling Framework for LCMP

Flow of information

Main Data Inputs Modelling Outputs

Population Industrial structure Building footprints

Land Use Residential, Commercial and

Industrial activity

Land allocation Residential / Commercial

Industrial

Household & Traffic Survey* Trips, Mode Choices, Vehicle Ownership, Incomes , Socio

economic groups, etc

• Information of household surveys is collected using stratified sampling and all income groups , social groups, genders covered • Underlined parameters can be taken from national assessments

Travel Demand (4 stage modelling) Trip generation, Trip

distribution, Modal Choice & Trip assignment

Travel Demand Mode Shares, Traffic Volume

on network links, Indicators - Mobility &

Accessibility, Safety

Vehicle Technology Dispersion matrices Grid CO2 Intensity Industrial growth

Fuel Mix

Energy, Environment

Transport, Household, Industrial Activities

Energy Demand Emission Inventory (local

pollutants and CO2) Air Quality

Indicators – Environment

Linkages to national / global

Guidance for City Planners

• Basic Primer on Climate Change

• Definition of low carbon • Scenarios • Inputs for Modelling • 2O C Scenario for India • 2O C Scenario and Cities

Mitigation Wedges : National

CO2 Price (US $/tCO2 26 56 100 117

Mitigation Wedges for Urban Transport

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Emissions Reduction in Sustainable Low Carbon Scenario

Sustainable mobility (1)

Sustainable logistics (2)

Fuel Economy (3)

Bio fuels (4)

EVs & Eletricity Cleaning (5)

Residual Emissions

Mitigation Strategies within LCMP

-

50,000.00

100,000.00

150,000.00

200,000.00

250,000.00

300,000.00

350,000.00

400,000.00

450,000.00

BAU BAU SS BAU SS BAU SS

2011 2020 2030 2050

Passenger Demand : Vizag(Million pkm)

Walking

Cycling

Buses

3Ws

Cars

2Ws

Initial Result from "LCMP Vizag"

-

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

BAU BAU SS BAU SS BAU SS

2011 2020 2030 2050

CO2 Emissions Vizag('000 tCO2)

Buses

3Ws

Cars

2Ws

• Low carbon plans at city level need to be developed on top of regular transport and city planning

• Inputs from global and national level (technology learning, CO2 targets, economic growth, etc ) are important considerations for city scenarios.

• Changes in land use, strengthening of public transport , improving infrastructures for cycling and walking are necessary for improving mobility, safety, environment indicators and also deliver mitigation co- benefits

• National policies related to fuel economy, alternative fuels and electricity cleaning necessary to deliver mitigation required for 2 deg C.

Conclusions

Climate Compatible Urban Development

Considerations

• Socio-economic

• Technology • Inertia

Climate Compatible City Strategy

Planning

• Paradigms • Finance • Capacity

Tools/Methods

• Inventories • Models • Databases

Integration

• Spatial • Temporal • Sectoral

Global Scenarios

Integrated City Scenarios

Mitigation

Focus

downscale

Adaptation

Focus

Thank You

Subash Dhar sudh@dtu.dk +45 4677 5135

Project Website : www.unep.org/transport/lowcarbon