ADVISORY COUNCIL

January 10, 2018 9:00 a.m.

Welcome & Roll Call Dr. Joseph C. Rallo, LaSTEM Advisory Council Chair

Susie Schowen, LaSTEM Advisory Council Vice-Chair

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LaSTEM Workforce Workgroup

Dr. Lisa Vosper, Workforce Workgroup Chair

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LaSTEM Workforce Presentation &

Discussion Via Skype: Jonathan Rockwell, Gallup

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Accurately defining STEM Occupations

Jonathan Rothwell, PhDSenior Economist Gallup

LaSTEM Advisory Council Meeting Skype Presentation

January 10, 2018

Overview

1) Why we need a new measure of the STEM labor force and what that looks like

2) Analysis of trends based on such a definition

Problems with Current Definitions of STEM Occupations

1. No agreement among federal agencies• The NSF uses “Science and Engineering” labor force which roughly

corresponds to occupations common to workers with a bachelor’s degree in science or engineering fields.

• 2012 BLS task force did not advance a single definition, nor fully endorse the NSF basis.

• Dept of Commerce used only part of the NSF definition and added a few occupations to it

2. Arbitrary standards.• Not based on knowledge or skill requirements, otherwise doctors would be

included• Not based on research and development activity, otherwise most computer

workers would be excluded, as would social scientists• Professional researcher bias? Computer machine programmers and all blue

collar occupations are excluded, but any computer worker in an office settings is counted.

A STEM occupation is one that requires an extraordinary level of knowledge in one or more core STEM fields.

Based on data from O*NET (Dept. of Labor project)

New Brookings definition of STEM

Advantages over conventions definition include: rigor, alignment with educational curricula, self-correcting, objective

For background on O*NET see: National Research Council Panel to Review the Occupational Information Network (O*NET), “A Database for a Changing Economy: Review of the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) (Washington: The National Academies Press, 2010); Norman Peterson and others, “Understanding work using the Occupational Information Network (O*NET): Implications for practice and research,” Personnel Psychology 54 (2) (2001), 451–492.

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The Six Core STEM Domains in O*NET Knowledge Survey and Their Survey Anchors

Highest Knowledge = 7Least Knowledge =1

Computers and Electronics

1 3 6

Operate a VCR to watch a pre-recorded training tape

Use a word processor

Create a program to scan computer disks for viruses

Scales for Science (Physics, Chemistry, Bio), Computers, Engineering, and Math

Composite STEM Score o,k = E [(Raw Score o,k) - (Mean Score) o,k]

Does this ONET Method Work?

1. High Correlation with occupational median wages—from 2012 BLS OES:

• Correlation is 0.56 for STEM Score vs. 0.36 for NSF Science and Engineering binary variable

2. High Correlation with occupational knowledge—taken from ACT Work Keys scores, aggregated by occupation:

• Correlation with ACT composite score is 0.67 for STEM score vs 0.52 for NSF

• Correlation with ACT math score is 0.57 for STEM Score vs 0.47 for NSF. Math knowledge score correlation is 0.64; Economics and finance is 0.39; Law knowledge score is 0.31 English knowledge score is 0.31

Major Occupational Categories Sorted by STEM Score, with Share of Jobs that are STEM, and Share of U.S. STEM Jobs, 2011

High-STEM, Percentage of

JobsShare of U.S.

High-STEM Jobs

Architecture and engineering 100% 9%

Life, physical, and social science 87% 4%

Healthcare practitioner and technical 76% 22%

Computer and mathematical science 100% 13%

Installation, maintenance, and repair 53% 10%

Management 27% 6%

Construction and extraction 40% 8%

Education, training, and library 9% 3%

Business and financial operations 42% 10%

Farming, fishing, and forestry 8% 0%

Production 23% 7%

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 16% 1%

Sales and related 0% 0%

Legal 0% 0%

Source: Brookings analysis of O*NET and OES, 2011.

Source: Brookings analysis of O*NET V18 and 2012 American Community Survey, via IPUMS. Core STEM occupations are: Computer and Mathematical occupations, Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations, and Architecture and Engineering Occupations, all defined at 2-digit SOC level.

3%5%

12%

30%

13%

17% 16%

4%6%

1%

20%

42%

9%

15%

6%

1%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Educational Attainment of Workers in Brookings STEM Occupations and Core NSF STEM Occupations, 2012

Brookings STEMCore STEM Occupations

17% 19%24% 24%

32%

49%40%

50%

-2%

-30%

19%29%

49%

66%75%

108%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Within-Education Group Earnings Premium for Brookings and NSF-defined STEM Workers by Educational Attainment, 2012

Brookings STEMCore STEM Occupations

Source: Brookings analysis of O*NET V18 and 2012 American Community Survey, via IPUMS. Core STEM occupations are: Computer and Mathematical occupations, Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations, and Architecture and Engineering Occupations, all defined at 2-digit SOC level. Premium calculated as average earnings for workers of any age in each STEM-educational cohort divided by U.S. average earnings for all workers in the educational group less one.

Literature on Sub-bachelor’s STEM contribution to innovation

During industrial revolution:Ross Thomson, Structures of Change in the Mechanical Age: Technological Innovation in

the United States, 1790 to 1865 (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2009); Kenneth L. Sokoloff and B. Zorina Khan, “The Democratization of Invention during Early

Industrialization: Evidence from the United States, 1790-1846,” Journal of Economic History 50(2) (1990): 363-378;

Jacob Schmookler, “Inventors Past and Present,” Review of Economics and Statistics39(3) (1957): 321-333.

Presently in terms of lower product defects, higher capacity utilization and efficiency, and R&D quality:

Philip Toner, “Workforce Skills and Innovation: An Overview Of Major Themes In The Literature” (Paris: OECD, 2011)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012

Wage Premium for STEM Skills, Controlling for Experience, Education, and Sex, 1950-2012

Standard Deviation inOccupational STEM Skill

Analysis of data from Census Bureau via Integrated Public Use Microdata Series and O*NET. For methods, see Jonathan Rothwell, “Hidden STEM Economy,” (Brookings Institution, 2012).

1% 1%

13%

4%5%

10%9%

6%

4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Bachelor's degree orhigher

Some college High school or less

Share of U.S. Workers in STEM Occupations by Education, 1950-2011

195019802011

-4,622,206 -4,695,300

702,926

1,377,266

449,584

-5,000,000

-4,000,000

-3,000,000

-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

Less than diploma Diploma Some college Bachelor's Post-bachelor's

Change in Manufacturing Employment by Education Level, 1980-2013

Change 1980-2013

Source CPS: -9.3 million for sub-post-secondary; +2.5 million for post-secondary

3%2%

0%

4%

1%

-2%

1%

0%

-3%-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Bachelor's Degree Some College High School or Less

Annualized Growth Rates in Net Employment by Education for U.S. Economy, Tech and Manufacturing

Sectors, 1980-2011

U.S. EconomyTech SectorManufacturing

Duration of Advertised Vacancies in Days by Level of STEM and Educational Requirements, 2013-Q1

Median duration

Mean duration

Duration at the 80th

percentile of Advertisem

ents

Number of Ads

Occupations requiring STEM knowledgeGraduate degree 20 47 90 31,045

Bachelor's degree 13 39 75 329,196Some college or Associate's 8 40 77 87,835

High school or less 3 33 64 32,827Occupations not requiring STEM knowledge

Graduate degree 7 42 84 26,056Bachelor's degree 7 34 67 216,499

Some college or Associate's 4 32 59 53,408High school or less 4 32 61 414,915

All Ads 6 35 70 1,192,438Source: Brookings analysis of data from Burning Glass. Sample is all vacancies advertised online

through company websites in the first quarter of 2013-Q1. STEM and educational requirements are based on analysis of data from O*NET.

Conversation With the LaSTEM Advisory Council

Q & A

JONATHAN ROTHWELLSenior Economist202.715.3091901 F St NWWashington DC 20004USA

GALLUP®

Women and Diversity in the

STEM Workforce Latoya Bullard-Franklin, Million Women Mentors

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LaSTEM Workforce Presentation &

Discussion Dr. Stephen Barnes, LSU Economics and Policy

Research

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STEM and Louisiana’s WorkforceStephen R. Barnes, PhD

High Demand Occupations

High Demand Occupations: New Approach

• Occupational projections • Updated annually upon receipt of new employment

data• Two-step process:o Projections by Industryo Projections by Occupation

• Star-Rating System • Updated annually based on new demand projections,

wage data, and openings datao Ratings by Occupation

High Demand Occupations: New Approach

Star RatingsStar Ratings

Short-term Outlook

Long-term Outlook

Current Job Openings

Wages

Projected job openings

Projected percent growth in total

number employed

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Star Ratings Reflect Unique Regional Demand

Stars and STEM

• STEM not explicitly incorporated into assessment of employer demand

• Highly-rated occupations more likely to have strong STEM components

• Among all occupations, 40% have a positive STEM rating• Among 4- and 5-star occupations, 58% have a positive STEM rating• Consider importance of STEM education/training within

occupational classifications: strong latent demand for STEM preparation

• STEM has important implications when considering workforce as a driver of economic growth

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Discussion

barnes@lsu.edu

The STEM Workforce Gap &

Next Steps for LaSTEM

Susie Schowen, LED FastStart

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Economic Driver Jobs

Skilled Workforce

Growth of Population and

Personal Wealth

Professional and Cultural Jobs

Growth and Reinvestment of

Revenues

WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT DRIVES A CYCLE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXPANSION

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ANALYSES IDENTIFYING HIGH-WAGE, HIGH-DEMAND JOBS; ECONOMIC DRIVER JOBS; AND GAPS BETWEEN SUPPLY AND

DEMAND INFORM STRATEGIC DECISIONS

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1. Identify Tier 1 (Economic Driver) Industries: Produce things of value and sell them outside the region Growth is limited primarily by availability and quality of workforce Wages are typically above average Examples: Manufacturing, Utilities, Industrial Construction, Software

Development

2. Identify Tier 2 Industries: industries that provide services essential to well-functioning, economically vibrant communities. Examples: Healthcare, Education, Police and Fire Services

3. Identify occupations critical to Tier 1 and Tier 2 industries

4.Assign Tier values to 4- and 5-Star Jobs

Tier 1 Jobs are 4- and 5-Star jobs employed in significant numbers by Tier 1 economic driver industries, Tier 2 Jobs are 4- and 5-Star Jobs employed in significant numbers by Tier 2 industries, and Tier 3 Jobs are all other 4- and 5-Star Jobs.

LED FASTSTART TIER JOBS ANALYSIS IDENTIFIES WORKERS CRITICAL TO ECONOMIC DRIVER INDUSTRIES

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Annual Job Openings

Annual Completions

Gap(or Surplus)

LED GAP ANALYSIS COMPARES DEMAND FOR 4- AND 5-STAR JOBS TO ANNUAL EDUCATIONAL COMPLETERS

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LED’S GAP ANALYSIS DEMONSTRATES THE NEED FOR STRATEGIC, INTENTIONAL FOCUS TO CLOSE THE GAP IN ECONOMICALLY

CRITICAL FIELDS

Critical Fields in Tier 1 (Economic Driver) Industries

Additional Annual Completers

Needed

Computer and Information Science 743Cybersecurity and Data Analytics 66Engineering and Engineering Technology (including Process Technology) 434Skilled Crafts: Industrial Construction, Production, and Maintenance 3004Logistics and Operations Management 57Accounting Technology/Technician and Bookkeeping. 170Management Information Systems, General. 13Total 4487

Note: ALL Undersupplied Tier 1 fields are heavily STEM-intensive. Almost all Tier 1 fields in general are STEM Fields.

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LOUISIANA MUST ALSO ENSURE THAT CRITICAL TIER 2 INDUSTRIES ARE ADEQUATELY SUPPLIED

Critical Fields in Tier 2 (Essential Services) Industries

Additional Annual

Completers Needed

Education 257Criminal Justice and Fire Services 626Healthcare 1512Total 2395

Note: Educational institutions may have difficulties hiring STEM-qualified instructors due to issues of pay rather than supply. Such difficulties will not be reflected in the Gap Analysis.

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FOCUSING ON UNDERSUPPLIED TIER 1 AND TIER 2 FIELDS BENEFITS STUDENTS AND COMMUNITIES AS WELL AS

EMPLOYERS

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REDUCING THE GAP REQUIRES SPECIFIC INCENTIVES AND STRATEGIC ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES

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TECHNICAL NOTES

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THIS ANALYSIS HAS MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR EDUCATION PROVIDERS, STUDENTS, AND JOB

SEEKERS

LaSTEM Update

Objective CurrentStatus

Actions Needed

SuccessIndicators

Timeline

(For Example)• New

Curriculums• Marketing

Campaigns• Policy Changes

• Proposal to council by xx/2018

• Accepted by council xx/2018

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After objectives are established, what are the next steps? Each box corresponds to a specific goal Each workgroup will submit their objectives for approval

Workgroup SMART Objectives

LaSTEM Update Sample SMART Objectives – Workforce Workgroup

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Objective CurrentStatus

Actions Needed

SuccessIndicators

Timeline

5.1 – Triple the # of completers in computer science by 2025

5.1 (a) – Triple the # of bachelor degree graduates from 303 to 909 by 2025

5.1(b) – Triple the # of associate degree graduates in computer science-related fields by 2025

Current production of computer science graduates is insufficient to meet projected needs.

This problem is not localized to LA, thus recruitment outside of the state is a challenge.

(For Example)• Investment in

faculty• Faculty

recruitment and retention

• Investment in student recruitment and retention, including scholarships and wraparound services

• Expansion of the K12 pipeline in collaboration w/K12 Workgroup

• Number of completersincreasing over time

• 2025

STEM UpdateReport Out on K12 SMART Objectives

Dr. Jeanne Burns, K12 Workgroup Chair

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LaSTEM Update Data & SMART Objectives - PK-12 Workgroup

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Objective CurrentStatus

Actions Needed

SuccessIndicators

Timeline

(For Example)• New

Curriculums• Marketing

Campaigns• Policy Changes

• Proposal to council by xx/2018

• Accepted by council xx/2018

STEM Showcase Mr. John Fraboni – Founder & CEO, Operation Spark

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what we dotrain software engineers, fast

...very fast, 8 times faster than universities

why we do itpeople need opportunity, industry needs

talent

...like, yesterday!

people need opportunity

access to upward mobility

industry needs talent

+5.3 demand, +2000 open jobs, and now DXC

a software economy

4.3 other jobs created, ability to innovate

did you write a novel?

coding is 21st Century basic literacy

how we do it?

Immersion & High School to High Wage

Immersion

$60,000Average salary

100%Job placement

Kendall after his second job offer

High School to High Wage

200 enrolled

60% of grads are African American 30 % are young women

Students from 80% of high schools in Orleans Parish

(6 parishes total)

Funded startup of program. Thanks!

Largest Software Firm in NOLA Loves OS

(From actual job posting)

Fall 2018

Offer HS classes in Baton Rouge

Expansion Plans

Adult programs

Atlanta

questions?

Other Business, Wrap-Up & Next

StepsLaSTEM Next Steps: Timeline & Report to Legislature

Dr. Lisa Vosper, Workforce Workgroup Chair

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LaSTEM Report “The council, through the Board of Regents, shall

submit a status report regarding all actions taken to implement the provisions of this Section, including metrics that measure the success of implementing council activities and initiatives and any recommendations for legislative or policy changes to the Senate Committee on Education and the House Committee on Education by January thirtieth of each year.” (Act 392)

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Other Business & Wrap Up

Send feedback, suggestions and questions to lastem@regents.la.gov

Next meeting: Wednesday, February 7th at 9:00 a.m.Topics include: SMART Objectives Funding/Sustainability

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