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Losing Air Dominance?. Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning. Operation Desert Storm, 1991. 23,455. 43,735. What is Air Dominance?. Air superiority over enemy to meet joint force goals Freedom to attack …any target, with mission success Freedom from attack …defeat of enemy fighters and SAMs - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Losing Air Dominance?Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning
What is Air Dominance?What is Air Dominance?
• Air superiority over enemy to meet joint force goals• Freedom to attack…any target, with mission success• Freedom from attack…defeat of enemy fighters and SAMs• Freedom to maneuver…for forces on land or sea
Operation Desert Storm, 1991
Ground Attack
Air Superiority
43,735
23,455
Iraq and AfghanistanIraq and Afghanistan
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
OEF CAS
OIF CAS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
OIF
OEF
Munitions Dropped 2004 to 2008
Sorties Flown 2004 to 2008
The Plan After 1991The Plan After 1991• Success of F-117 in 1991 Gulf war
set Air Force position on stealth
• Fighter force structure cut by 44% as Cold War ended
• Replacement strategy:
• 1991: Advanced Tactical Fighter program down-select to maintain air dominance technologies
• 1994: Joint Strike Fighter research initiated as affordable stealth fighter/attack to replace F-16 and A-10 force structure
• “Never again buy a non-stealthy fighter” – Chief of Staff Gen. McPeak
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98 2003 2008
F-117F-22F-15EF-16 (A/B/C/D)A/OA-10F-15 (A/B/C/D)F-111F-5F-4F-105
Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1963-2008Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1963-2008
*Estimates 59 F-117s
Today’s CAF purchased
The Force Mix Active Component 1995 The Force Mix Active Component 1995
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 1995 2000
Aircraft Under 18 yrs
Aircraft Over 18 yrs
Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs.
• Force healthy in mid-1990s
• Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force
• 1995: Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1% of active force
Active Fighter and Attack AircraftA-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22
Active Fighter and Attack AircraftA-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22
TAI Active Only
2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom: Aircraft Felt Their Age2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom: Aircraft Felt Their Age
• Decline from Operation Desert Storm averaged over 10%
• F-15C average age = 18 years
50556065707580859095
100
F-15C F-15E F-117 F-16
Desert Storm: Data 28 Feb 91
Iraqi Freedom: Data Average
Mission Capable RatesOperation Desert Storm vs. Operation Iraqi Freedom
Mission Capable RatesOperation Desert Storm vs. Operation Iraqi Freedom
• F-22 is first supersonic stealth aircraft
• 2 engine, supercruise design with ample internal missiles
• Designed to assure air dominance through fleet life ~2040
– Depends on number of aircraft procured
• F-22 is first supersonic stealth aircraft
• 2 engine, supercruise design with ample internal missiles
• Designed to assure air dominance through fleet life ~2040
– Depends on number of aircraft procured
F-22sF-22s
F-15C/D
F-15E
F-117
From Three Fighters to OneFrom Three Fighters to One• F-117: Stealth attack
of heavily defended targets
• F-15E: Advanced air-to-ground platform
• F-15: Air superiority fighter with 100 kills, no air combat losses 665 Total Active F-15, F-15E and F-117
55
200
410
F-22 183 Currently Funded381 F-22s Air Force Requirement
How to See StealthHow to See Stealth
• This F-15E from Lakenheath on an OIF
mission carried fuel, targeting pods, air-to-
ground weapons and air-to-air missiles externally
• In contrast, the F-22 has four internal weapons bays and targeting integrated with its avionics
• Internal fuel and weapons bays greatly improve the F-22’s stealth– The two side-bay doors are open here
• Internal fuel and weapons bays greatly improve the F-22’s stealth– The two side-bay doors are open here
NOT STEALTH
NOT STEALTH STEALT
HSTEALT
H
F-22 and F-35: PartnershipF-22 and F-35: Partnership
F-22 technology development and risk reduction flow to F-35
Radar
F119/F120 Engine Development
Integrated, open architecture avionics
Unique F-22 Capabilities
Advanced LO Materials and Manufacturing
Computer-based maintenance
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
88 93 98 2003 2008 2013
F-35
F-22
F-15E
F-16 (A/B/C/D)
A/OA-10
F-15 (A/B/C/D)
True to Plan: Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015True to Plan: Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015
1991 Gulf War
Estimate
F-22 and F-35 would have led to smaller force, more precision and survivability, no legacy aircraft
Comptroller’s Plan December 2004: PBD 753 (FY06 PB)
Comptroller’s Plan December 2004: PBD 753 (FY06 PB)
$10.5B Cut
$46.1B Cut
More O&S costs for old Fighters
~1285 funded
190
197
~2,167 req’t.
~ 1772 QDR
• PBD 753 cut $10B from F-22 program (100 aircraft)
F-22F-15C
F-15E
• Pushed long-term funding far below stated
requirement
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
88 93 98 2003 2008 2013
F-35
F-22
F-15E
F-16 (A/B/C/D)
A/OA-10
F-15 (A/B/C/D)
Crisis: Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015Crisis: Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015
1991 Gulf War
Estimate
Budget cuts shrink force below QDR requirement
The Legacy Force Mix Active Component The Legacy Force Mix Active Component
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2008
Aircraft Under 18 yrs
Aircraft Over 18 yrs
Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs.
• Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force
• From 1990 to 2008, active fighter and attack force shed ~1000 aircraft
• 1995: Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1% of active force
• 2008: Legacy fighters over 18 years 55% of active force
Active Fighter and Attack AircraftA-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22
Active Fighter and Attack AircraftA-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22
784 aircraft over 18 yrs.
TAI Active Only
Considerations: • New administration budget guidance• F-22 availability for NATO• PACOM force structure
– Option for Japan*
Considerations: • New administration budget guidance• F-22 availability for NATO• PACOM force structure
– Option for Japan*
Current:• Program of Record is 183 total aircraft
buy• Will yield ~126 Combat-Coded Aircraft• 7 Squadrons 18 PAA
F-22 Force SizingF-22 Force Sizing
PACOM AOR
CENTCOM AOR
Langley AFB
Holloman AFB
Hickam AFB
Elmendorf AFB
NATO: No F-22s
2
2
1
2
Threat EnvironmentThreat Environment• Iraq 2003: 2884 launches in
25 days– Peak: 190 launches on Day 15
• Persistent mobile SAMs moved daily
– SA-2, SA-3, SA-6s, Rolands
– 66% were unlocated despite 12 years of operations and one year of accelerated SAM destruction
• Kosovo 1999: 894 SAM launches in 78 days
– Peak: 43 launches on Day 39
2
113
67
96 92
6147
143
54
149
10593
65
90
190
93105
2314 19
917
4 5 30
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 24 25
Threats can persist for weeks even against older
defenses
US forces have not yet faced SA-20
2884 Iraqi Surface to Air Missile Launches in 2003
2884 Iraqi Surface to Air Missile Launches in 2003
SA-20
Red AirRed Air
Source: DoD Report, 2006
PRC F-10
Lethal SAMS and Red air
• ~1200 F-10 advanced 4th Gen fighters in production
– DIA estimates similar to Typhoon, Rafale
• Su-30 and Su-33 purchases
• Work on AWACS-like system based on IL-76
• Acquisition of 8 Russian air refueling aircraft
• Complete radar coverage of all borders
“You will be outnumbered…” ADM Willard, Commander,
US Pacific Fleet, Sep 2008
“You will be outnumbered…” ADM Willard, Commander,
US Pacific Fleet, Sep 2008
Getting Back on Track?Getting Back on Track?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2014 2020
Aircraft Under 18 yrs
Aircraft Over 18 yrs
Active Fighter and Attack AircraftA-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22
Active Fighter and Attack AircraftA-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22
Estimate
• Ratio gets worse, before it gets better
• Fighter force reaches 80% legacy circa 2014
• Recovers to 62% legacy circa 2020
– Assumes 243 total F-22s– Assumes ramp rate to 80
USAF F-35s per year• Active total inventory
declines to 1320– Guard and Reserve forces
steadily age out• Fighter and attack force
highly capable but limited in number of joint tasks it can serve
TAI Active Only
F-22 Termination OptionsF-22 Termination Options
183183 381381260240200 300280OSD USAF
Fleet Size
339339
Maintain service life to 2038
220
Lot 10 then defer to QDR AnalysisYields ~203 F-22s
Lot 10 Lot 11 Lot 12
Current Program
• Sustain force with 3 more lots – 20-24 acft per lot
• Synchronize with F-35 way forward – Hedge F-35 concurrency risk
• 10 squadrons total– Take from back-up inventory, training and attrition
reserve to create 10 squadrons
CJCS: “60”
Way Ahead…Way Ahead…• No service depends more on F-35
than the USAF• Only program of maturity and scale
to maintain USAF fighter and attack missions
• Biggest risk: restricting program build-up from 2010 to 2015
• Essential for Navy, Marine Corps and allies
F-22 Workforce ImpactF-22 Workforce Impact
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
To F-35
F-22
Option 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Other
CA
TX
NH
GA
CT
WA
Direct F-22 Jobs by State
Jobs Lost at F-22 Production Termination
“I can throw a blanket over the production line to keep it warm, but what about the people?” -- F-22 Program Manager
• F-22 has 26,657 direct jobs in 2008– At full rate, F-35 will transfer 5300 jobs* some to other
programs
– 4,400 jobs remain on F-22 after 2011
• Permanent loss of 17,000 highly skilled jobs
If Production Continues
17,000
