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Proud Platinum Sponsor
of the ASFPM 2017
Annual Conference
Looking to the Future:San Francisco Bay
Increased Flooding ScenariosKristen MacDougall, CFM
Assistant Technical Director, GIS
ASFPM 2017 Annual Conference “FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE HEARTLAND” Kansas City, Missouri, April 30–May 5
The first product of its kind in FEMA Region IX
San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding
Scenarios, Coastal Flood Risk Products
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 3
9
SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA
counties
8.7Mpeople
People, homes, businesses,
critical infrastructure
low-lying areasin
101communities
45near the shoreline
Project Team – FEMA and Contractor Partners
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 4
– Kris May: Project Manager
– Lisa Messano, Laura Adleman: Communications & Outreach
– Kristen MacDougall: GIS Lead
– Mark Lightner: Tool Development
– James Johnston, Whitney Kirkendall: QA/QC
– Michael Mak: Coastal Engineering Support
– Juliette Hayes: Risk Analysis Branch Chief,
Mitigation Division, FEMA Region IX
– Eric Simmons: Senior Engineer, FEMA Region IX
– Patricia Rippe: Senior Compliance Officer, FEMA Region IX
FEMA Products: Regulatory and Flood Risk
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 5
Regulatory Products Flood Risk Products
GDB GDB
• Many communities are being asked to comply with
higher standards
FEDERAL• President’s Executive Order
(EO) 13690 (January 30, 2015)
– Aims to improve resilience to
flooding by adopting new flood
risk reduction standards for
federally-funded actions and
projects.
• EO 13690 - Expands floodplain
management from the base flood
level to a higher vertical elevation
and corresponding horizontal
floodplain.
STATE• California Assembly Bill 691 -
State lands: granted trust lands:
sea level rise.
• California Senate Bill 379 -
Land use: general plan; safety
element; climate adaptation.
• Executive Order B-30-15 -
Requires State agencies to take
climate change into account in
their planning and investment
decisions.
FIRMs are used for many purposes beyond assessing flood insurance rates:
Why Do We Need These Products?
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 6
Image Credit: Steve Rothaus, Miami Herald
• Sea level rise may increase flood elevations
Image Credit: California Coastal Conservancy
• Climate change may change storm characteristics and
increase flood hazards
Image credit: Jorge Rodriguez/Flickr through a Creative Commons license
• Storms can be larger than the 1% annual chance event
Increased Flooding Scenarios (“IFS”) Dataset Details
– Includes the extent of increased flood hazard area
associated with a +1 foot, +2 foot, +3 foot increase in the
1% stillwater elevation
– Coastal mapping only (no riverine)
– Increase in 1% stillwater elevation
• Wave runup is located primarily along the Bay shoreline in areas
with steep slopes and coastal structures (e.g., levees, floodwalls,
revetments)
• Increase in wave runup is NOT linear
• Does not account for shoreline change, erosion, subsidence, levee
upgrades or other shoreline modifications
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 7
21
IFS Dataset: Example Map & Profile View
Calculated with
1% stillwater elevation
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 9
IFS Dataset: Profile View
IFS Dataset: Tool Automation
– Created using ArcGIS and
Python
– Ability to run on a single
community or multiple
datasets
– Low amount of data
manipulation
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 10
IFS Dataset: Manual Tasks
Over 50 manual steps in the original process…
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 11
IFS Dataset: Tool Tasks
Tool reduces manual interaction to 5 steps
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 12
IFS Tool: Process Overview & Inputs
– Convert SFHA polygons to raster based on BFE value
– Add increase (+1, +2, +3 ft)
– Create a depth grid (BFE – DEM)
– Classify raster where depth is >= 0
– Evaluate connectivity
– Convert to smoothed polygons
– Attribute polygons & QC
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 13
IFS Tool: Outputs
Water Surface
Elevation RasterDepth Grid Greater than 0
Connected Raster Smoothed Polygon
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 14
Flood Risk AwarenessThe FEMA FIRM depicts existing hazards – but flood risk can be greater than shown on the FIRM. Use the IFS dataset to start conversations in your community regarding coastal risks.
Floodplain Management & RegulationHelps communities meet Federal and/or State Executive Orders; State laws and requirements.
Helps evaluate adopting higher standards (e.g., higher freeboard requirement) than the minimum Federal or state requirement.
PlanningAnticipate local planning strategies and needs.
For California, help plan for EPA’s & FEMA Safe Growth Strategies for the San Francisco Bay Area.
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 15
Using the IFS dataset in your community
Outreach
– Online Web App Viewer• http://fema.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=80bb493a0
a334c5199ef4b9034c2c7fb
– GIS Data Downloads• www.r9map.org
• County-based GDBs
• SF Bay area-wide GDB
• PDF MapBooks
– Informational Brochure & FAQ
– Targeted Webinar Presentations
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 16
FEMA GeoPlatform Implementation
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 17
FEMA GeoPlatform Navigation
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 18
FEMA GeoPlatform Example: Marin County, CA
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 19
Other Regional Studies
– Adapting to Rising Tides
– Our Coast, Our Future
– SF PUC, Port of SF
– SF Bay Extreme Tides Study
– Northeast Rail Corridor Project
Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios Page 20
Proud Platinum Sponsor
of the ASFPM 2017
Annual Conference
Thank youfor participating!
ASFPM 2017 Annual Conference “FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE HEARTLAND” Kansas City, Missouri, April 30–May 5
Kristen MacDougall, CFM