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IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
Long-term Nuclear Energy Outlook: IAEA's Estimates for
Nuclear Power Development in the World
Ahmed Irej Jalal Planning & Economic Studies Section (PESS)
Department of Nuclear Energy
IAEA
Current status: August 2012
In operation 435 nuclear power
reactors [370 GW]
USA 104
France 58
Japan 50
Russia 33
S. Korea 23
IAEA
Current status: August 2012
Under Construction
63 nuclear power reactors
China 26
Russia 11
India 7
Korea, Rep 4
IAEA
Nuclear Power Evolution
“Where does nuclear power go from here?”
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
GW
e
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Construction starts
0
10
20
30
40
50
no
. of
con
stru
ctio
n s
tart
s
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IAEA nuclear power projections (RDS-1)
http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/RDS1_31.pdf
IAEA
IAEA nuclear power projections (RDS-1)
Future role of nuclear power are presented as LOW and HIGH estimates
These are Projections NOT Predictions and highly dependent on:
Economic growth and structural economic change
Relation between Economy & Energy
Technology performance and costs
Energy resource availability and future fuel prices
Energy policy and physical, environmental and economic constraints.
IAEA
Key assumptions
LOW reflects a continuation of current trends and a few changes in policies affecting nuclear power other than those already in the pipeline
HIGH is much optimistic, but still plausible and technically feasible and assumes that
the current financial and economic crises will be overcome in the not so distant future
past rates of economic growth and electricity demand, especially in the Far East, would essentially resume
the implementation of stringent policies globally targeted at mitigating climate change
IAEA
World Nuclear Capacity
369 456 469
740
1137
IAEA
Per-Fukushima – Rising Expectations
Low case High case
IAEA
Post Fukushima: What did not change!
Global energy demand is set to grow
Environmental pressures are rising
Energy supply security back on the political agenda
Nuclear power offers a sizeable supply potential for secure and clean electricity at competitive cost .
IAEA
Post Fukushima: What has change!
Public Concern on Safety
Cost more Uncertain
Financing more challenging
IAEA
High
Case
Low Case
2010 Projections 2011
Projections
2012 Projections
Impact of Fukushima on Nuclear Projections
IAEA
World Nuclear Capacity
369 456 469
740
1137
IAEA
121 111
65
114 123
148 165
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
North America
4.8 7 13 4 6.1 18
58
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Latin America
93 70
55
123 117 126
154
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Western Europe
1.8 5 10 2 1.8 13
44
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Africa
13 30
50
5 22
52
139
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Middle East & South Asia
123
153
191
81
162
274
417
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Far East
65 80 79
47
76
107
140
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
Eastern Europe
5 6 20
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2020 2030 2050
GW
(e)
Year
South East Asia & the Pacific
Nuclear power development in different world regions
IAEA
Thank You
…atoms for peace.
