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LONG TERM ENERGY POLICY DOCUMENTS
Draft ofEnergy policy of Poland
until 2040 (PEP2040)
Draft ofNational Energy and Climate Plan for the years 2021-2030
(NECP)
8 Directions
5 Pillars
national regulations EU regulations
PEP2040 INDICATORS
60% SHARE OF COAL IN
ELECTRICITY
PRODUCTION IN 2030
21% RES IN GROSS
FINAL ENERGY
CONSUMPTION IN
2030
LAUNCH OF NUCLEAR
ENERGY IN 2033
30% REDUCTION OF CO2 EMISSION BY 2030 (COMPARED TO THE YEAR 1990)
LAUNCHING OF NUCLEAR
ENERGY FROM 2033
INCREASE OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY up to 23% BY 2030 (IN CONNECTION TO THE PRIMARY ENERGY FORECAST OF 2007
THE OBJECTIVE OF THE POLISH ENERGY POLICY IS:
TO PROVIDE ENERGY SECURITY, WHILE ENSURING COMPETITIVENESS OF THE ECONOMY, ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND REDUCTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF ENERGY SECTOR AND WITH OPTIMUM USE OF POLAND’S DOMESTIC ENERGY RESOURCES
ENERGY SECURITY
COMPETITIVENESS AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY
REDUCTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE ENERGY SECTOR
STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS OF ENERGY POLICY OF POLAND UNTIL 2040
Optimal useof domestic
energyresources
Development of renewable energy
sources
Diversification of natural gas and oil
supply and development of infrastructure
Development of heating and
cogeneration
Development of electricity
generation and tranmission
infrastructure
Development of energy markets
Launch of nuclear energy
Improvingenergy
efficiency
COAL
OPTIMAL USE OF DOMESTIC ENERGY RESOURCES
• SECTOR PROFITABILITY AND INNOVATIONS IN COAL SECTOR
• RATIONAL EXPLOITATION, UTILIZATION AND DISTRIBUTION OF COAL
• EXPLORATION OF NEW DOMESTIC DEPOSITS OF NATULAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL
• DIVERSIFIED SUPPLIES, ROUTES AND DIRECTIONS OF NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL
NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL
DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY AND TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE
LIMIT of COAL SHAREIN ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION until 2030 up to 60%
FIRST NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN 2033
INCREASING ROLE OF RES (off shorewind and PV)
NATURAL GAS MAINLY as balancing CAPACITY
• EXPANSION OF THE TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION GRIDS
• SECURE CROSS-BORDER CONNECTIONS• HIGHER QUALITY OF ENERGY DISTRIBUTION• EFFECTIVE MEASURES IN EMERGENCY
SITUATIONS• DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY STORAGE• DEVELOPMENT OF SMART GRIDS
TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE
STABLE SUPPLY OF ELECTRICITY
DIVERSIFICATION OF NATURAL GAS AND OIL SUPPLY AND DEVELOPMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE
NATURAL GAS
• ABILITY TO RECEIVE IMPORTS (BALTIC PIPE, LNG TERMINAL)
• EFFICIENT CROSS-BORDER INTERCONNECTRS
• DEVELOPMENT OF GAS TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION AND STORAGE INFRASTRUCTURE
CRUDE OIL AND LIQUID FUELS
• DEVELOPMENT OF CRUDE OIL AND LIQUID FUEL TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE AND STORAGE
STABLE SUPPLY OF NATURAL GAS AND CRUDE OIL
FOR END-USERS
DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY MARKETS
ELECTRICITY
• STRENGTHENING THE ACTIVE CONSUMER’S POSITION AND ROLE OF PROSUMERS
• DEVELOPMENT OF DEMAND SIDE RESPONSE (DSR)
• ADJUSTING THE ELECTRICITY DEMAND CURVE FOR MORE EFFICIENT GENERATION USEPETROLEUM PRODUCTS
• OPTIMIAL OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE • BIGGER ROLE OF
BIOCOMPONENTS, ALTERNATIVE FUELS, E-MOBILITY
NATURAL GAS
• MARKET LIBERALIZATION• POLAND AS A REGIONAL TRADE
CENTRE (GAS HUB)• NEW SEGMENTS FOR GAS USE
FULLY COMPETITIVE MARKET
DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
ABILITY TO BALANCE RES
DEVELOPMENT OF DISTRIBUTED GENERATION, ENERGY CLUSTERS AND ENERGY COOPERATIVES
IN HEATING AND COOLING: 1-1.3 PP. ANNUAL INCREASE
IN TRANSPORT: 10% RES IN 2020 AND 14% IN 2030
IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION –PV GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF OFF-SHORE WIND ENERGY
INCENTIVES FOR DISPATCHABLE RES
RATIONAL USE OF RENEWABLES (IN PARTICULAR BIOMASS AND NON-AGRICULTURAL WASTES)
21% RES IN GROSS FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPION IN 2030
LAUNCH OF NUCLEAR ENERGY
• FIRST NUCLAR UNIT WITH CAPACITY OF 1-1.5 GW BY 2033
• 6 NUCLEAR UNITS BY 2043 (TOTAL 6-9 GW)
• ENSURING FORMAL, LEGAL AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION OF NUCLEAR
ENERGY
• DEVELOPMENT OF HUMAN RESOURCES
• EFFECTIVE NUCLEAR REGULATORY SYSTEM
CLEAN, SAFE AND STABLE ENERGY FOR DECADES
DEVELOPMENT OF HEATING AND COGENERATION
DEVELOPMENT OF DISTRICT HEATING
• DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE HEAT AND COOLING SUPPLY SYSTEMS (INCREASED USE OF HIGH-EFFICIENT CHP, RENEWABLES AND WASTE)
• COMPETITIVENESS OF DISTRICT HEATING COMPARED TO INDIVIDUAL HEATING
• MORE CUSTOMERS CONNECTED TO THE DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS
CLEANER INDIVIDUAL HEATING
• DECREASING THE USE OF SOLID FUELS• INCREASING ROLE OF LOW-EMISSION
FUELS (GAS, NON-COMBUSTIBLE RES, ELECTRICITY
• EFFECTIVE MONITORING OF POLLUTION
LOW-EMISSION HEAT GENERATION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL
IMPROVING ENERGY EFFICIENCY OF THE ECONOMY
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS OF CITIZENS
LEADING ROLE OF PUBLIC SECTOR
LEGAL AND FINANCIAL INCENTIVES FOR PRO-EFFICIENCY ACTIONS
INTENSIVE THERMOMODERNIZATION OF HOUSES
IMPROVING AIR QUALITY (E-MOBILITY, DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS)
REDUCTION OF ENERGY POVERTY
23% ENERGY SAVING BY 2030
INSTALLED NET ELECTRICITY CAPACITY BY TECHNOLOGY IN YEARS: 2017, 2030, 2040
43 GW
ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL IN YEARS: 2017, 2030, 2040
170 TWh 222 TWh197 TWh
Average emission intensity of electricity production by 2040
The implementation of PEP 2040 will
result in a decrease in the emissivity
of electricity production
Energy Policy from the EuropeanUnion’s perspective
Poland’s energy mix vs. the EU ambitions: Coal-based electricity generation Transformation is continued since late 90’s Relatively high ratio of energy import independence Shifting towards less emission fuels (gas, nuclear, RES)
Energy Policy of the EU
Energy policy EU is strongly related to Climate issues
Energy and climat policy is described in:
Long Term Strategy by European Commission Comunication: A clean planet for all , Nov. 2018 [COM (2018) 773] final (vission on 2050)
Today’s Energy and climate policy tools : Directives and regulations of ”winter package”, agreed in 2018
and 2019 (goals for 2030), incl. National Ener.& Climate Plans EU ETS agreed in 2018
Main goals from „winter package”
Energy savings: 32,5 % in 2030 (related to assumptions from 2005)
Renewable Energy’s share in EU energy mix in 2030: 32 %
Electricity grid connections between Member States: 70% offered for cross-border trade
The energy policy is influencing the national energy polices of allMS: actions toward reduction of GHG emissions, development of RES, increase of Energy efficiency, etc…
Legislative tool: National energy and climate plans (finalisation willbe done by end of 2019)
Long term strategy (2050)
Corresponds to Paris agreement How to achieve GHG emissions neutral Europe in 2050, limit
temperature growth to 1,5C to 2050 The goal and tools are not agreed yet (estimated agreement to be
reached by European Council in Dec. 2019) The ambitious goals lead to eliminate fossil fuels (coal and gas) from
Energy mix and replace them by RES, nuclear, energy storage(hydrogen utilisation, captured CO2 and produced by biofuels)
Exsisting fossil based electricity sources will be allowed only ifequipped with CCS
Huge costs related; for Poland estimations show 210 bln euro,
Additional pathways for the transitionto net-zero GHG emission economy
Baseline scenario is not sufficient to achieve emission neutraleconomy by 2050; therefore needed aditional actions:
1. Maximisation of benefits from energy efficiency2. Maxmise deployment of RES and electrification3. Clean, safe and network besed transport4. Competitive EU industry and circular economy5. Develop an adequate, smart infrastructure and interconnections6. Reap the full benefits of bio-economy and create carbon sinks7. Tackle remaining CO2 emissions with CCS
GHG emissions trajectory in a 1.5°C scenario
MtC
O2eq
MtC
O2eq
Non-CO2 other
Non-CO2 Agriculture
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
Industry
Power
Carbon Removal Technologies
LULUCF
Net emissions
Different zero GHG pathways lead to different levels of remaining emissions and
absorption of GHG emissions
Source: EC Communication A clean planet for all , 28 Nov. 2018
Costs, financing challanges of the energy transition
Today the EU invest 2% GDP in innovation of energy system and infrastructure
In order to meet net-zero emission economy must be invested GDP 2,8 %, i.e. 520-575 bilion euro per year (175-290 bln euro/y additionally comparedto basline scenario)
Healthcare costs can be saved 200 bln euro/year
Vast majority financed by private business and households Regions highly related to oil, coal, and gas extraction as well as energy
intensive industry will be influenced by energy transition Just transition is a chalanege for the EU and member states affected
Share of employmentfossil fuel extraction and mining
Share of employmentenergy intensive industries and
automotive manufacturing
<0.1%
0.1-0.5%
0.5-1.0%
1.0-2.0%
>2.0%
<0.1%
0.1-1.0%
1.0-2.5%
2.5-5.0%
>5.0%
Source: EC Communication A clean planet for all , 28 Nov. 2018
Thank you