Upload
financial-sense
View
219
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
1/14
Long Term Energy Outlook Still Bullish
Joseph R. Dancy, SMU School of LawManager, LSGI Venture Fund LP
Dallas, Texas
September 28, 2011
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
2/14
Investors Abandon The Stock Market:
How Bad is It? 45% Say They WillNeverInvest in the Market Again
Domestic Equity Funds Have Four Years of Outflows
48% of Americans Expect a Severe Recession orDepression Ahead
Market Volatility Hits Record Levels
Market Correlations Hit Record Levels
Household Stock Ownership Levels Declining
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
3/14
The last few years have been the most volatile
for all of recorded historyAndrew Lo, Professor of FinanceMIT Sloan School of Management
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
4/14
Market and Stock Correlations Hit Record Levels
High Frequency Traders Having a Field Day: 70% of Trading Volume!
ETFs Used as Trading Vehicles, Focus is Short Term
Several Flash Crashes in the Last Year
Stock Selection Not Effective When Correlations This High
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
5/14
Europe Over A Barrel:
High Quality Crude is in Short Supply
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
6/14
Brent / WTI Price Spread At Record LevelsCushing Oklahoma Crude
Oil Stocks - DOE
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
7/14
Meanwhile Chinas Demand For Energy
Continues to Astound
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
8/14
But Chinas Growth Has Slowed
The Question is by How Much?
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
9/14
China Will Use More Crude Oil
than the U.S. Within a Decade
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
10/14
Global Excess Crude Oil Production
Capacity is Declining
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
11/14
Global Crude Oil Demand Forecast
to Continue to Grow
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
12/14
U.S. Motorists Will Spend Record Sums forGasoline This Year While U.S. Diesel
Exports Set Records
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
13/14
The Investment Theme:
The price of crude oil is being driven
by (1) stagnating global productionand (2) relentless increases indemand from emerging markets
trends that will be in place for years
8/4/2019 Long Term Energy Outlook
14/14