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Introduction to the NEEDS projectIntroduction to the NEEDS project

SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1]

[ Sustainable Energy Systems]

Andrea Ricci, coordinatorISIS

Cairo, 28 January 2008

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NEEDSNew Energy Externalities

Development for Sustainability

Integrated Project within FP6

Duration: 48 months (+6), started September 2004

66 partners (15% are SMEs), representing Universities, Research Institutions, Industry and NGOs from 27 Countries (19 EU members, 3 MED, 5 ‘Other’)

Leading partners:ISIS (IT) – Coordinator

DLR (DE)

IER Stuttgart (DE)

OME (FR)

Uni Prague (CZ)

CNR-IMAA (IT)

PSI (CH)

SWECO (NO)

1118 p.m; 11.7 MEuro (7.6 MEuro financed by EC)

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Overall objective

To evaluate the full costs and To evaluate the full costs and benefits (i.e. direct + external) of benefits (i.e. direct + external) of

energy policiesenergy policies and of and of future future energy systemsenergy systems, both at the level , both at the level of individual countries and for the of individual countries and for the

enlarged EU as a wholeenlarged EU as a whole

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Objectives and targeted innovation

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of new energy technologies for which the current LCA knowledge is insufficient

Monetary valuation of externalities associated to energy production, transport, conversion and use, with major innovation in :

methods

impacts so far insufficiently addressed

availability and reliability of quantitative evidence

Development of a consistent and robust analytical platform allowing to integrate the full range of information and data on LCA and external costs into a Pan-European modelling framework

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Objectives and targeted innovation (2)

Technology roadmap and stakeholders perspective

terms and conditions for an effective formulation and implementation of long term strategies based on the internalisation of external costs

robustness of the research results under various stakeholder perspectives

Transferability and generalisation calculating, transferring and presenting the uncertainty of default values for average/aggregate external costs

Integrationstructured “protocol” to facilitate the widespread use of the integrated analysis framework

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The NEEDS products

Reports, including(i) documents that illustrate methodological issues, the science behind them and the process that has led to their development(ii) documents that present the results obtained (both qualitative and quantitative)

DatabasesTools, i.e. software that is fully or partially available to third parties.

LCA database Technology repository Stakeholders database Database of electricity

generation technology specific sustainability indicators

…

Ecosense Web Integrated modelling platform

•Country models•Pan European model

Web based platform for elicitation of stakeholders preferences

…

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Providing inputs to energy policies

Who are the target users of the NEEDS results?Which policy queries can be answered by NEEDS?In which format and with what functionalities will the NEEDS results be provided to the users? How will it practically be possible to access and exploit the NEEDS products?What will happen once the NEEDS project is finalised?

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Target users Prevailing interest in NEEDS results

Science/research Policy making

Research institutions

- Energy technologies XXX

- Energy economics XXX X

- General economics and social sciences

XXX X

- Environmental sciences XXX

Specialised consultancies (e.g. EMAS, emission trading)

XXX X

Engineering XX

Industry active in energy research XXX XX

Industry other X X

Energy utilities XX XXX

Service providers (e.g. ESCO) XX XX

European Commission

- Research XXX

- Policy XXX

EU National and local governments X XXX

Developing countries (e.g. re. CDM) X XXX

Energy agencies XX XX

Interest groups X XXX

NGOs X XXX

Individual citizens X X

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Addressing policy queries

… by using evidence directly produced by the project

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Etc.

What are the real, full costs of the different energy sources and technologies? External costs of energy options (sources+technologies), comparisons across time and space

Direct results of NEEDS combining LCA and external cost valuation

How to put economic values on externalities that are difficult to value, like loss of life, biodiversity and climate change? New results for selected externalities

Direct results from NEEDS: - New estimates of Value of

Life Years (VOLY) for EU -25 (and separate ones for EU-15 and the New Member Countries)

- Potential Disappearing Fraction (PDF) for biodiversity valuation

- new FUND results on climate change

Are external cost values equally available across different countries? Country-specific values of external costs for countries so far not investigated, with full methodological consistency and comparability.

Direct results of NEEDS for 6 New Member States and 3 Mediterranean Countries.

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Policy queries

Using evidence directly Using evidence directly produced by the projectproduced by the project (simple) elaboration of the direct evidence

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How to determine fair and efficient charges (end use prices) of energy? Internalisation of the external costs of sources/technologies (through either additional charges or/and subsidies)

Determination of additional social charges (for each source/technology) based on the comparison between current charges and external cost values calculated in NEEDS

How do different internalisation strategies impact on energy prices? Comparison of results of NEEDS scenarios that simulate different internalisation options

Comparison of direct outputs of the model runs carried out in RS2a

Can we measure the contribution of internalisation policies to sustainability? Comparison of the values of the main sustainability indicators (demand, emissions) with or without internalisation options, and measure of the corresponding “added value” of internalisation

Comparison and simple elaboration of the results from the NEEDS scenarios with those from the BAU

Etc.

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Policy queries

Using evidence directly produced by the project (simple) elaboration of the direct evidence using the NEEDS modelling results running the NEEDS models with new sets of assumptions Introducing changes in the modelling tools Carrying out additional, novel research

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What are the relative merits of alternative policy options in a worldwide perspective (Europe + rest of the world)? Cost Benefit Analysis of policy options

Extension of the framework for CBA to incorporate e.g. transcontinental impacts such as global warming)

Is it possible to evaluate the full costs and benefits of EU Directives that have an impact on the energy system? Cost Benefit Analysis of EU Directives

Application of the NEEDS results to specific Directives

What is the likely impact on emissions, costs and climate change, of policies based on the establishment of Europe-wide Renewable energy standards? Values of emissions, technology costs and GHG emissions

Elaboration based on the results from the NEEDS scenarios, to generalise the assumptions on the uptake of RES

Etc.

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Policy queries

Using evidence directly produced by the project (simple) elaboration of the direct evidence using the NEEDS modelling results running the NEEDS models with new sets of assumptions Introducing changes in the modelling tools Carrying out additional, novel research

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How do different internalisation strategies impact on energy demand? Demand values resulting from different internalisation strategies

New model runs based on energy prices, trajectories etc. issued by the scenarios modelled in NEEDS

How will different post-Kyoto strategies impact on the future of energy technologies? Comparison of the expected trajectories of energy technologies associated to different post-Kyoto options

New model runs corresponding to different post-Kyoto options (in addition to the one modelled in NEEDS)

Etc.

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Policy queries

Using evidence directly produced by the project (simple) elaboration of the direct evidence using the NEEDS modelling results running the NEEDS models with new sets of assumptions Introducing changes in the modelling tools Carrying out additional, novel research

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What is the impact of possible (future) technological breakthroughs (that have not been envisaged in NEEDS)? Full new set of results reflecting radical changes in the structure of supply and demand

Inclusion of new (or radically improved) energy technologies in the NEEDS reference energy system

Etc.

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Policy queries

Using evidence directly produced by the project (simple) elaboration of the direct evidence using the NEEDS modelling results running the NEEDS models with new sets of assumptions Introducing changes in the modelling tools Carrying out additional, novel research

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What are the total costs of energy systems based on decentralised heat and power generation, including power demand management and new methods of energy storage? External costs calculation for energy systems not included in NEEDS

Extension of the NEEDS methodology (LCA + external cost valuation) to new energy technology systems

Is it possible to differentiate energy technologies based on their sustainability performance? Technology-specific sustainability indicators

Extension of the NEEDS database of sustainability indicators to include all energy technologies (and not only electricity generation) and to ensure a wider geographic coverage

Etc.

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NEEDS beyond NEEDS

Continuing access to the NEEDS results and toolsContinuing dissemination including websiteUpdating of the NEEDS databasesImprovement (coverage, new data) of the NEEDS databasesNew policy-driven elaborations of NEEDS resultsNew model runsImprovement of the modelling platformNew research