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logilogi EnergyEnergy
logi Energy - Larry Ortega CIO/CEOlogi Energy - Larry Ortega CIO/CEO
Thoughts on Oil Thoughts on Oil
The Thinking Process - December 2009The Thinking Process - December 2009
Peak Oil AnalysisPeak Oil Analysis
212 655-4467
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Analysis Approach - Strategic Steps Analysis Approach - Strategic Steps
Oil Price Analysis
Oil Price Direction
Strategies
Positions
Position Hedging
Portfolio Hedging
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price Analysis - The Bases of DirectionOil Price Analysis - The Bases of Direction
Current Global Production Global Export Modeling EIA Data Analysis Detailed Futures Pricing Analysis Oil Price - Market Effects Elliott Wave - Fibonacci Analysis Technical Chart Analysis Weather Analysis Industry Insights E&P as well as Transportation Operations
5 Person Technical Analysis Team
Insights from all 15 Team Members
Oil Prices:Where are we in
the Oscillation Cycle?
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Export Model 2005 On - Peak Oil AnalysesOil Export Model 2005 On - Peak Oil Analyses
Supply and Demand Cross in 2032 “Best Case” (Upper Chart)
Oil Supplied by Exports Expected to Drop at roughly 1 MMbpd per year (Lower Chart)
Within 2 years, it will drop below World Demand at the Currently Depressed Usage Rates
Within 5 years, there will be Fuel Rationing in the US, Europe and Japan
Source: Multiple sources compiled by Samuel Foucher and Jeffrey Brown
Exports SHOULD meet Needs
for Next 2 Years
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: EIA Data Seasonal EffectsOil Price: EIA Data Seasonal Effects
Crude Oil and Gasoline beginning Fall/Winter Build at Extreme Highs Inventory only to get worse (Upper Graphs)
Heating Oil Winter Drawdown Starting at 99th %tile. Warm Winter could spell even Higher Inventory
El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected.
Crude Oil and Gasoline Reserves Expected to Grow if There is Lack of Use
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: Market Effects - USO, Oil Comm ETFOil Price: Market Effects - USO, Oil Comm ETF
Downtrend
Slowly Crumbling from Oct High - Biased by Trading Strategy of this ETF
Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Weakening
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: Market Effects - UNG, Nat Gas Comm ETFOil Price: Market Effects - UNG, Nat Gas Comm ETF
Seasonal Drop from Oct High - Winter Cold Snap causing bounce back, also Biased by Trading Strategy of this ETF
Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Lack of Strength
Still Downtrend
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: Market Effects - SPY, S&P 500 ETFOil Price: Market Effects - SPY, S&P 500 ETF
Santa Claus Rally Driving into ascending triangle
Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator showing Uncertainty and Chaikan Money Flow shows Growing Strength
Clear Uptrend - But,Hit a Limit by New Years?
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: Market Effects - UUP, US Dollar ETFOil Price: Market Effects - UUP, US Dollar ETF
Dollar Spikeback - Not Strongly Correlated with Oil or Gas Price, but having an effect - More Correlated to S&P and Gold
Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Growing Strength
Clear Uptrend
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: Market Effects - GLD, Gold ETFOil Price: Market Effects - GLD, Gold ETF
Market Forces Spiking Gold Down - Not Strongly Correlated with Oil or Gas Price - More Anti-Correlated to Dollar
Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow show Decreasing Strength
STRONG Reversal
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: Market Effects - DIG, Oil and Gas Stock ETFOil Price: Market Effects - DIG, Oil and Gas Stock ETF
Oil and Gas Stocks Breaking through Bottom of Upward Channel - Bounce back points to lower prices
Technical Indicators: Percentage Price Oscillator and Chaikan Money Flow going strongly negative
Down Spike Imminent?
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: Futures Pricing - Crack Spreads - BrokenOil Price: Futures Pricing - Crack Spreads - Broken
Gasoline and 3:2:1 Crack Spreads ‘broke down’ in late August with excess storage
Crack Spreads hitting Resistance
Crack Spreads this low means Refinery Margins are thin and trying to rebound with weather and Christmas Driving
Crack Spread Leading Indicator of Prices
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: Elliott Wave - MonthlyOil Price: Elliott Wave - Monthly
Tracks Fibonacci Based Elliott Wave Responses Caused by Behavioral Market Responses
Monthly Wave Analysis Expects Price to Drop below Dec08 Low Expects Succeeding Up Price Move to go up to $300 to $400 per
barrel Elliott Wave Theorists - DO NOT BELIEVE in Peak Oil Predicted Dow 10,000 S&P 1100 in March 2009 during Low Elliott Wave most accurate at describing turn 1 to 2 wks after
Elliott Wave Predicted $120 or more Oil at High and $45 or less Oil at Low
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: Technical AnalysisOil Price: Technical Analysis
Oil Price Action Just Below Short Term Support Line
2002 - 2007 Long Term Support - Resistance
2008 - 2009 Short Term Support - Resistance
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: Weather EffectsOil Price: Weather Effects
El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected
El Nino (temp >1deg) was expected to peak at +1.25 deg, now modeled to +1.75 deg
Temperatures MUCH Warmer
El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected
Winter Expected to be warmer through March
HO Reserves Expected to Grow with Lack of Use
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price: Industry InsightsOil Price: Industry Insights
DOT: Airline Passenger Seat Miles Down -9.3% over Last 2 Years
Trucking Firms reporting -5.2% in Oct09 from Oct08. This was truck Tonnage’s lowest decrement since Nov 2008; Sep 09 was -7.3% from Sep 08.
American Association of Railroads reports Rail Tonnage down -13.7% compared to ‘08 and -18.2% since ‘07
Dow Jones Transportation Average - Triple Top, Third Top Not as High as Second.
No Uptick in Transportation Expected Overage in Supplies not NeededSupplies Will Continue to Build
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
Oil Price - Direction Bias next 6 MonthsOil Price - Direction Bias next 6 Months
Current Global Production: Down Global Export Modeling: Neutral EIA Data Analysis: Down Detailed Futures Pricing Analysis: Neutral Oil Price - Market Effects : Down Elliott Wave - Fibonacci Analysis: Down Technical Chart Analysis: Possibly Down Weather Analysis: Down Industry Insights E&P as well as Transportation Operations: Down
Price Seems to be in the Middle
Direction Bias Pointing Down - Market Headed Down
Oil Prices:Where are we in
the Oscillation Cycle?
Peak Oil Value FundPeak Oil Value Fund
logilogi EnergyEnergy
ContactContact
Larry Ortega
Chief Investment Officer
logi Energy
212 655-4467
This is not an offer to sell any fund or securities. Before you invest in markets, please discuss your decisions with your financial advisor.