8
AUTHOR QUERY FORM Journal: GEOMOR Please e-mail or fax your responses and any corrections to: E-mail: [email protected] Fax: +1 61 9699 6721 Article Number: 3105 Dear Author, Any queries or remarks that have arisen during the processing of your manuscript are listed below and highlighted by flags in the proof. Please check your proof carefully and mark all corrections at the appropriate place in the proof (e.g., by using on- screen annotation in the PDF file) or compile them in a separate list. For correction or revision of any artwork, please consult http://www.elsevier.com/artworkinstructions. Articles in Special Issues: Please ensure that the words this issueare added (in the list and text) to any references to other articles in this Special Issue. Uncited references: References that occur in the reference list but not in the text please position each reference in the text or delete it from the list. Missing references: References listed below were noted in the text but are missing from the reference list please make the list complete or remove the references from the text. Location in article Query / remark Please insert your reply or correction at the corresponding line in the proof Q1 'Kaneda et al., 2007' is cited in text but not given in the reference list. Please provide details in the list or delete the citation from the text. Q2 Chakohti road was changed to Chakothi, please check if appropriate. Q3 'Kumar (2006)' is cited in text but not given in the reference list. Please provide details in the list or delete the citation from the text. Q4 Citations of 'Kamp et al. (2009)' (original) have been changed to 'Kamp et al. (in press). Please check if appropriate. Q5 Uncited reference: This section comprises references that occur in the reference list but not in the body of the text. Please position each reference in the text or, alternatively, delete it. Any reference not dealt with will be retained in this section. Thank you. Q6 Please update the status of this reference. Q7 Please update the status of this reference. Electronic file usage Sometimes we are unable to process the electronic file of your article and/or artwork. If this is the case, we have proceeded by: Scanning (parts of) your article Rekeying (parts of) your article Scanning the artwork Thank you for your assistance. Our reference: GEOMOR 3105 P-authorquery-v7 Page 1 of 1

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Page 1: Location Query / remark in articlewebcentral.uc.edu/eProf/media/attachment/eprofmediafile_761.pdfThe study area located in AJK and the NWFP covers an area of 80 81 ^ > ^ 750 km2, which

AUTHOR QUERY FORM

Journal GEOMOR Please e-mail or fax your responses and any corrections toE-mail correctionseschelsevierspitechcomFax +1 61 9699 6721

Article Number 3105

Dear Author

Any queries or remarks that have arisen during the processing of your manuscript are listed below and highlighted by flags inthe proof Please check your proof carefully and mark all corrections at the appropriate place in the proof (eg by using on-screen annotation in the PDF file) or compile them in a separate list

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Articles in Special Issues Please ensure that the words lsquothis issuersquo are added (in the list and text) to any references to otherarticles in this Special Issue

Uncited references References that occur in the reference list but not in the text ndash please position each reference in thetext or delete it from the list

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Query remarkPlease insert your reply or correction at the corresponding line in the proof

Q1 Kaneda et al 2007 is cited in text but not given in the reference list Please provide details in the list ordelete the citation from the text

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TED P

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1 Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya2 northern Pakistan

3 Ghazanfar A Khattak a Lewis A Owen a Ulrich Kamp b Edwin L Harp c

4 a Department of Geology University of Cincinnati Cincinnati OH 45221 USA5 b Department of Geography The University of Montana MT 59812 USA6 c US Geological Survey 1711 Illinois Street Golden CO 80401 USA

7

8

a b s t r a c ta r t i c l e i n f o

9 Article history10 Received 9 June 200911 Received in revised form 18 September 200912 Accepted 22 September 200913 Available online xxxx14151617 Keywords18 Kashmir19

^Earthquake

20^Landsliding

21 Himalaya22

^Photography

23The inuence of the 08 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake and subsequent snow melt and monsoon rainfall24on slope stability was evaluated using repeat photography in the Kashmir Himalaya of northern Pakistan25Sixty-eight landslide-affected locations were selected and photographed in November 2005 MayJune 200626June 2007 and August 2007 to evaluate all potential geomorphic changes Eighty percent of the locations27showed no or very little change 11 of the locations showed a partial vegetation recovery on the slopes28while 9 showed an increase in the landslide area All those locations that showed an increase in landsliding29were located along rivers andor roads The small change in landslide extent is remarkable given that the30region experienced one of the heaviest monsoon seasons in the last decade and is counter to earlier31predictions of accelerated slope erosion by landsliding in the immediate years following the earthquake32Extensive ssures and ground cracks at many localities however still present a potential of future33landsliding under wetter conditions34copy 2009 Elsevier BV All rights reserved

3536

37

38

39 1 Introduction

40 Landslides constitute one of the most common natural hazards in41 many mountain regions of the world and pose a great threat to both42 human lives and property This is particularly the case for high43 mountains such as the Himalaya (Gupta and Joshi 1990 Owen et al44 1995 Anbalagan and Singh 1996 Nath 2004) There are several45 natural and human-made factors that can trigger a landslide but in46 general earthquakes and rainfall are considered as two major47 mechanisms (Keefer 1984 Dai et al 2002 Crosta 2004) This was48 well illustrated on 08 October 2005 when an earthquake measuring49 M76 struck Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and the North West50 Frontier Province (NWFP) in northern Pakistan affecting an area of51

^gt^30000 km2 and triggering thousands of landslides that resulted in

52^~^25500 fatalities (Peiris et al 2006 ERRA 2006 2007 USGS 2006

53 Dunning et al 2007 Sato et al 2007 Kamp et al 2008 in press54 Owen et al 2008) This included the Hattian Bala landslide that55 destroyed three villages and killed

^~^1000 people (Harp and Crone

56 2006 Dunning et al 2007 Owen et al 2008) Snowmelt and rainfall57 during the subsequent spring and monsoon seasons threatened to58 exasperate the hazard by eroding landslide scars and remobilizing59 landslide slopes and debris to cause the landslides to continue to60 evolve (Owen et al 2008)

61For earthquake-triggered landslides however most of the studies62have been concerned with the identication description and docu-63mentation of coseismic landslides particularly those caused by ca-64tastrophic earthquakes (Keefer 1984 Harp and Jibson 1996 Jibson65et al 2004a b) but relationships between coseismic and post-seismic66landsliding activity

^are still poorly understood for most mountain

67regions A large earthquake may initiate disturbance in the substrate68creating ssures increasing porosity and dilating joints and hence can69affect the stability of slopes for a long period after the earthquake70Therefore to predict the landslide behavior for a region that has ex-71perienced a large earthquake it is necessary to track the response of72slopes to landsliding for a signicant period after the earthquake The732005 Kashmir earthquake provided a unique opportunity to study74earthquake-triggered landslides and the subsequent inuence of snow-75melt and monsoon rainfall on the affected slopes We therefore studied76the evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides at 68 locations in77earthquake-affectedareasofAJKand theNWFP in thewesternHimalaya78of northern Pakistan

792 Study area

80The study area located in AJK and the NWFP covers an area of81

^gt^750 km2 which is centered on the epicenter of the 08 October 2005

82Kashmir earthquake (Fig 1) Three rivers drain the study area the83Kunhar (forming theKaghanValley) and theNeelamand JehlumRivers84The Pir Panjal Range bounds the study area to the ESE crossing the85Jhelum Valley To the north the topography is characterized by high

Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

Corresponding author Tel^+^1 513 556 4203 fax

^+^1 513 556 6931

E-mail address LewisOwenucedu (LA Owen)

GEOMOR-03105 No of Pages 7

0169-555X$ ndash see front matter copy 2009 Elsevier BV All rights reserveddoi101016jgeomorph200909035

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Geomorphology

j ourna l homepage wwwe lsev ie rcom locate geomorph

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86 mountains forming the watershed between the Neelam and Kunhar87 Rivers and by the mountains of the tribal area of Indus

^-Kohistan on the

88 northern ank of the Kaghan valley To the west the area is bounded89 by the northward-trending Gali Hills from the towns of Murree and90 Abbottabad Geologically the region is marked by the HazarandashKashmir91 Syntaxis (HKS) which is bounded by the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)92 that thrusts Precambrian metasedimentary rocks over Tertiary sedi-93 mentary rocks of the Murree Formation (Calkins et al 1975 Hussain94 andKhan 1996Hussain et al 2004 Fig 2) The earthquakeoccurredon95 thewestern limbof theHKSand theNWndashSE trendingKashmir Boundary96 Thrust (KBT) which was reactivated during the Kashmir earthquake97 (Baig 2006 Yeats et al 2006)98 The study area has a monsoonal climate with very wet summers99 (Figs 3 and 4) In Muzaffarabad (at

^~^700 m asl) mean maximum and

100 minimum temperatures in January and June are 159 degC and 32 degC and101 376 degC and 221 degC respectively (WMO 2007 2008) Muzaffarabad102 receives

^gt^1500 mm precipitation on average during the year of which

103 one-third falls as rain during the monsoon season from late June until104 the endofAugust (District CensusReport 1998 Figs 3 and4) This often105 results in severe ooding and landsliding notably debris ows During106 the winter precipitation falls as snow at elevations above 1500 m asl

107Little precipitation occurs in spring but snowmelt provides abundant108surfacewaters to slopeswhich results in erosion andor inltration into109slopes signicantly increasing the height of the groundwater table110In November 2005

^4 weeks after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake

111Owen et al (2008) studied 1293 landslides at 174 locations in the112study area and produced a detailed landslide inventory Owen et al113(2008) grouped landslides into six different geomorphicndashgeologicalndash114anthropogenic settings and noted that

^gt^90 of landslides were

115small (lt1000 m2 in area) shallow rock and debris falls and mostly116involved the top few meters of weathered bedrock regolith and soil117Furthermore

^gt^50 of all landsliding sites were associated with road

118construction and human activity In addition Owen et al (2008)119reported extensive ssuring in many of the valley slopes particularly120in the Precambrian dolomites and siliciclastic rocks of the Muzaffar-121abad Formation and also noted that many of the slopes in the footwall122rocks and on midslopes where gradients were

^lt^20^deg showed very

123little evidence of landsliding or ssuring Similarly Sato et al (2007)124reported earthquake related liquefaction and ssuring in the Neelum125Valley and Jayangondaperumal et al (2008) noted similar features126around the city of Jammu in Indian-controlled Kashmir

^~^240 km SE of

127the earthquakes epicenter

Fig 1 Study area and locations of study sites

2 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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128 Sato et al (2007) mapped 2424 landslides using black-and-white129 25-m-resolution SPOT-5 satellite imagery and noted that

^gt^1900

130 (~80) of the landslides were small (lt05 ha in area) whereas 207

131(~10) of the landslides were large (gt1 ha) and occurred on steeper132(gt30o) slopes Sato et al (2007) also noted that most of the landslides133occurred on the hangingwall of the earthquake fault and

^gt^700 (lt30)

134of the landslides occurred within 1 km from the earthquake fault135Analysis by

^Sato et al (2007) and Kamp et al (2008) showed that (i)

136most of the landslides were concentrated in the Miocene mudstone137siltstone and sandstone (50 in Sato et als (2007) study and

^gt^60 in

138Kampet als (2008) study) and (ii) rocksNWof Balakot had thehighest139landslide density (32 and 33 landslideskm2 respectively)140Using a series of different satellite images Dunning et al (2007)141identied 85 pre-earthquake 73 co

^seismic and 21 post-seismic land-

142slides in the Hattian Bala catchment Dunning et al (2007) noted that143most of the landslides that postdate the earthquake-triggered landslides144are located around themargins of the two lakes (Karli and Tang) formed145by the damming of the drainage146Kamp et al (2008) undertook a land-cover classication using147ASTER satellite imagery from October 2005 and mapped 2252 land-148slides They noted that 24 of the entire study area was covered by

Fig 2 Geological map of the study area (simplied after Kaneda et al 2007)Q1

Fig 3 Annual rainfall distribution from 2000 to 2007 at Balakot (N 34o33^ E 73o21

^

WMO 2008)^0 mdash missing data

3GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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ROOF149 landslides in October 2005

^3 weeks after the earthquake Analysis by

150 Kampet al (2008) also showed that the bedrock lithologywas themost151 important landslide-controlling parameter and most of the landslides152 occurred in highly fractured shale slate clastic sediments limestone153 and dolomite mainly of the Murree and Salkhala Formations Kamp154 et al (2008) noted that most of the landsliding occurred on slopes155 ranging from 25

^to 35

^deg and that one-third of the landslides occurred

156 along rivers and one-fth occurred along roads In conclusion Kamp157 et al (2008) showed that areas around many settlements such as158 Muzaffarabad and Balakot are still ldquohighlyrdquo to ldquovery highlyrdquo susceptible159 to future landsliding Kamp et als (2008) study also supported the160 earlier studies of Kumar (2006)Q3 Sudmeier-Rieux (2007a b) and Owen161 et al (2008) which showed that many landslides occurred along faults162 rivers and roads cuts163 Kamp et al (in press)Q4 undertook pre-earthquake landslide164 mapping using 2001 ASTER data and compared the results with165 2005 ASTER data by Kamp et al (2008) The study by Kamp et al (in166 press) showed that the number of landslides increased from 369 in167 2001 (covering an area of 82 km2) to 2252 in October 2005 (covering168 an area of 611 km2) Kamp et al (in press) assumed that the new169 landslides were triggered by the 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks170 and noted that many of the coseismicpost-seismic landsliding in171 2005 occurred in areas that had been dened as potentially dangerous172 on the 2001 landslide susceptibility map

173 3 Methodology

174 Four weeks after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake Owen et al (2008)175 visited the area and examined 1293 landslides at 174 locations in176 Kaghan Valley in NWFP and the Neelam and Jhelum valleys in AJK This177 included photographing and describing all the active slope failures and178 ssuring at the 174 locations Our study builds on eld photographs179 taken in November 2005 by Owen et al (2008) Sixty-eight of Owen180 et als (2008) sites were selected and re-visited and re-photographed181 in MayJune 2006 June 2007 and August 2007 to assess slope con-182 ditions at each location after the snowmelt and monsoon seasons183 (Figs 1 and 5) This allowed us tomake an assessment of the short-term184 changes that occurred after the October 2005 earthquake A data set of185 four photographs per site was therefore produced to compare landslide186 changes after the earthquake (Data supplement item) Photographs

187were adjusted to the same scale within an accuracy of^plusmn^5 using Corel

188Draw graphic software version 12189For the sites that showedminor changes (lt5 area change) between1902005 and 2007 visual estimates were made to calculate percent changes191in landslide surface area For those locations which showed signicant192landslide activity (gt5 area change) the percent change in surface area

^is

193calculated by on-screen digitization of eld photographs Varnes (1978)194classication was used to describe landslide types

1954 Results

196Previous studies showed that the Kashmir earthquake triggered not197only thousands of landslides but also produced extensive ssures and198cracks making the slopes unstable (Dunning et al 2007 Sato et al 2007199Kamp et al 2008 in press Owen et al 2008) Our study revealed that200between 2005 and 2007

^~^80 of the sites either showed no or very little

201change in slope conditions after the earthquake (supplementary data202Table 1 Fig 6) Vegetation growth is clearly very rapid in this monsoon203climate but only 11 of sites showed notable vegetation recovery on the204slopes Our results also revealed that only 9 of the sites showed an205increase in the surface area of landsliding (Fig 3) These data showed that206all the reactivated landslidingoccurredeitheralong riversor roadsorboth207No correlation between post-earthquake landslide activity and rainfall is208evident and all secondary failures were concentrated along roads andor209rivers (Table 1) Similarly all those sites

^showed an increase in the surface

210area after the 2006 snowmelt season which continued to bemodied by211landsliding after the 2006 and 2007 monsoon seasons

2125 Discussion

213Factors that contribute to slope failure during an earthquake214are generally complex and difcult to assess with condence but in215general a critical magnitude and peak ground acceleration has to be216reached for triggering landslides during an earthquake (Keefer 1984217Harp and Jibson 1995 1996 Jibson et al 1998 Cascini et al 2005) In218the case of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake the total number of reported219coseismic landslides (Sato et al 2007 Kamp et al 2008 Owen et al2202008) was signicantly lower than the number of landslides expected221to be generated by an earthquake of similarmagnitude (Keefer 1984)222although this might be because not all the earthquake-triggered223landslides were recorded particularly the smaller landslides

Fig 4 Monthly precipitation from January 2005 to December 2007 at Balakot (N 34o33^ E 73o21

^ WMO 2008)

Fig 5 Examples of repeat photography at ve different sites (A) Landsliding along Kunhar River in Kaghan valley Initial earthquake^shaking produced very few shallow slope

failures but produced extensive ssures and cracks which resulted in extensive secondary landsliding (B) Landsliding along main MuzaffarabadndashChakoth^i road in Jhelum ValleyQ2

Secondary landsliding occurred along the ssures produced by seismic shaking (C) Rapid growth of vegetation on^almost vertical slope along the Kunhar River in Kaghan valley

More than 70 of the slope is re-covered by vegetation by 2007 (D) and (E) Shallow rockfalls in Kaghan and Neelam valleys respectively No signicant changes occurred after theearthquake J=June A=August

4 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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5GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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224 Furthermore Owen et al (2008) highlighted that the earthquake-225 generated extensive ssures and cracks throughout the region had the226 potential to cause more landsliding which may increase the number227 of landslides in the coming years228 The available rainfall data from the Pakistan meteorological rain-229 gauge station at Balakot show that 2005 was the driest year and only230 received a total of 1166 mm rainfall compared to 2284 mm in 2006 and231 1212 mm in 2007 (Fig 4) Rainfall during July (597 mm) and August232 2006 (596 mm) however was the heaviest since 2000 with the 6-year233 meanbeing 319 mm for July and 304 mm for August Surprisingly post-234 summer monsoon (2006) repeat photography does not show any235 signicant new landsliding on slopes that were severely disturbed by236 earthquake shaking (Fig 5) We assumed that the ground conditions237 were very dry and that the amount of rainfall was not sufcient enough238 to initiate any new or secondary landslides Similarly more extensive239 landslide activity in the area would have been more if conditions were240 wetter at the time of the earthquake The study area was already241 experiencing drought conditions before the earthquake which may242 have been signicant in minimizing the inuence of pore water pres-243 sures on landsliding In the eld many local inhabitants noted that244 water levels continuously dropped in dug wells and natural springs245 began to dry up over the past few years It is likely that rainfall amounts246 in the study area were not sufcient to exceed the threshold for247 landslide initiation248 Our study shows that most of the secondary landsliding occurred249 on slopes along roads andor rivers (Table 1) which supports the250 observations of Kamp et al (2008 2009) and Owen et al (2008) that251 more than half of the earthquake-triggered landslides are located252 along rivers and roads Undercutting of slopes by river erosion and253 human activities such as road construction deforestation terracing254 and agricultural activities are probably the main reasons for these

^255 secondary failures

256 6 Conclusions

257 The Kashmir earthquake generated extensive landsliding and s-258 suring throughout the study area Within the

^2 years after the earth-

259 quake 80 of the sites examined in our study showed very little or no260 change 11 of sites showed a partial vegetation recovery on slopes261 while 9 showed an increase in the landslide areas All those sites that262 showed an increase in landsliding were located along rivers andor263 roads This lack of signicant change might be attributed to drought264 conditions in the area before the earthquake and insufcient rainfall265 after the earthquake despite the heaviest rains since 2000 occurring266 in 2006 However despite the few slope changes at the study sites267 the extensive ssuring still poses a potential hazard in the region as268 the slopes are still susceptible to future landsliding under wetter con-269 ditions Many settlements and major towns like Muzaffarabad and270 Balakot Garhi Dopatta are still at risk to future landsliding and future271 urban planning must account for this long-term potential threat

272The recurrence of an earthquake of the same magnitude in the273region is not very likely in the near future (Bendick et al 2007 Kondo274et al 2008MonaLisa et al 2008) but ongoing landsliding whichwas275initiated by the earthquake still poses a serious threat to life and276property

2777 Q5Uncited reference

278Kamp et al in preparation

279Acknowledgements

280We thank the National Centre of Excellence in Geology University281of Peshawar Pakistan NSF (EAR-0602675) and The University of Mon-282tana for supporting this research Mrs Aisha Khan Major General283Nadeem Ahmed and the Pakistan Army for eld support The Pakistan284Meteorological Department Peshawar ofce for providing rainfall data285GAK thanks the Pakistan Government and the University of Cincinnati286for providing support to undertake a Master of Science degree at the287University of Cincinnati which helped in completing this paper Thanks288to Editor Richard Marston and three anonymous referees for their con-289structive and useful comments on our manuscript

290Appendix A Supplementary data

291Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in292the online version at doi101016jgeomorph200909035

293References

294Anbalagan R Singh B 1996 Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping of295mountainous terrains a case study from Kumaun Himalaya India Engineering296Geology 42 237ndash246297Baig MS 2006 Active faulting and earthquake deformation in HazarandashKashmir298Syntaxis Azad Kashmir northwest Himalaya In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T299(Eds) International Conference on 8 October 2005 Earthquake in Pakistan Its300Implications and Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Islamabad Pakistan301Extended Abstract pp 27ndash28302Bendick R Bilham R Khan MA Khan SF 2007 Slip on an active wedge thrust from303geodetic observations of the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geology 35304267ndash270305Calkins AJ Ofeld WT Abdullah SKM Ali ST 1975 Geology of the southern306Himalaya in Hazara Pakistan and adjacent areas Geological Survey Professional307Paper 716-C US Government Printing Ofce Washington DC 29 pp308Cascini L Bonnard C Corominas J Jibson R Montero-Olarte J 2005 Landslide309hazard and risk zoning for urban planning and development In Hungr O Fell R310Couture R Eberthardt E (Eds) Landslide Risk Management Taylor and Francis311London pp 199ndash235312Crosta GB 2004 Introduction to the special issue on rainfall triggered

^landslides and

313debris ows Engineering Geology 73 191ndash192314Dai EC Lee CF Nagi YY 2002 Landslide risk assessment and management an315overview Engineering Geology 64 65ndash87316District Census Report 1998 Population Census Organization Islamabad Pakistan317Dunning SA Mitchell WA Rosser NJ Petley DN 2007 The Hattian Bala rock318avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir earthquake of3198 October 2005 Engineering Geology 93 130ndash144320ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2006 Annual321Review 2005ndash2006 The Army Press Islamabad 112 pp322ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2007 District323Prole-Muzaffarabad Kamran Printers Islamabad 76 pp324Gupta RP Joshi BC 1990 Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach a case study325from the Ramganga catchment Himalayas Engineering Geology 28 119ndash132326Harp EL Jibson RW 1995 Inventory of landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge327California earthquake US Geological Survey Open File Report pp 95ndash213328Harp EL Jibson RW 1996 Landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge California329earthquake Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86 319ndash332330Harp EL Crone AJ 2006 Landslides Triggered by the October 8 2005 Pakistan331Earthquake and Associated Landslide-dammed Reservoirs US Geological Survey332Open-File Report 2006-1052 Washington DC 10 pp333Hussain A Khan RN 1996 Geological map of Azad Jammu and Kashmir Geological334Survey of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan335Hussain A Mughal N Haq I Latif A 2004 Geological map of the Garhi Habibullah336Area District Mansehra and parts of Muzaffarabad District AJK Geological Survey337of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan338Jayangondaperumal R Thakur VC Suresh N 2008 Liquefaction features of the 2005339MuzaffarabadndashKashmir earthquake and evidence of palaeoearthquakes near340Jammu Kashmir Himalaya Current Science 95 1071ndash1077

Fig 6 Post-earthquake landslide activity at the study sites

6 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

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341 Jibson RW Harp EL Michael JA 1998 A method for producing digital probabilistic342 seismic landslide hazard maps an example from the Los Angeles California area343 US Geological Survey Open File Report Boulder Colorado pp 98ndash113344 Jibson RW Crone AJ Harp EL Baum RL Major JJ Pullinger CR Escobar CD345 Marinez M Smith ME 2004b Landslides triggered by the 13 January and 13346 February 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador In Bommer JJ Rose WI Loacutepez DL347 Carr MJ Major JJ (Eds) Natural Hazards in El Salvador Geological Society of348 America Special Paper vol 375 Geological Society of America Boulder Colorado349 pp 69ndash88350 Jibson RW Harp EL Schulz W Keefer DK 2004a Landslides triggered by the 2002351 Denali Fault Alaska earthquake and the inferred nature of the strong shaking352 Earthquake Spectra 20 669ndash691353 Kamp U Growley BJ Khattak GA Owen LA 2008 GIS-based landslide susceptibility354 mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region Geomorphology 101 631ndash642355 Kamp U Owen LA Growley BJ Khattak GA 2009 Back analysis of landslide356 susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake an assessment357 of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps Natural Hazards in pressQ6358 Kamp U Owen LA Parker Hamilton J Halvorson SJ in preparation The 2005359 Kashmir earthquake an assessment of the ad hoc rebuilding effort Environmental360 HazardsQ7361 Keefer DK 1984 Landslides caused by earthquakes Geological Society of America362 Bulletin 95 406ndash421363 Kondo H Nakata T Akhtar SS Wesnousky SG Sugito N Kaneda H Tsutsumi H364 Khan AM Khattak W Kausar AB 2008 Long recurrence interval of faulting365 beyond the 2005 Kashmir earthquake around the northwestern margin of the366 Indo

^-Asian collision zone Geology 36 731ndash734

367 MonaLisa Khwaja AA Jan MQ 2008 The 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake368 preliminary seismological investigations and probabilistic estimation of peak ground369 accelerations Current Science 94 1158ndash1166370 Nath SK 2004 Seismic hazard mapping and microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya371 through GIS integration of site effects and strong ground motion attributes Natural372 Hazards 31 319ndash342373 Owen LA Sharma MC Bigwood R 1995 Mass movement hazard in the Garhwal374 Himalaya the effects of the20October 1991Garhwal earthquakeand the JulyndashAugust

3751992 monsoon season In McGregor DFM Thompson DA (Eds) Geomorphology376and Land Management in a Changing Environment Wiley Chichester pp 69ndash88377Owen LA Kamp U Khattak GA Harp E Keefer DK Bauer M 2008 Landslides378triggered by the October 8 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geomorphology 94 1ndash9379Peiris N Rossetto T Burton P Mahmood S 2006 EEFITMission October 8 2005 Kashmir380Earthquake Published Report The Institution of Structural Engineers London381Sato HP Hasegawa H Fujiwara S Tobita M Koarai M Une H Iwahashi J 2007382Interpretation of landslide distribution triggered by the 2005 Northern Pakistan383earthquake using SPOT 5 imagery Landslides 4 113ndash122384Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P JaboyedoffMJ Breguet A Dubois J Jaubert R385Cheema MA 2007a An interdisciplinary approach to understanding landslides and386risk management a case study from earthquake-affected Kashmir Mountain Forum387Mountain GIS e-Conference January 14ndash25 2008 httpwwwmtnforumorgrsec388sclesNeelum_PAK_landslides_2007pdf389Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P Nessi J Breguet A Dubois J Jaboyedoff MJ390Jaubert R Rietbergen S Klaus R Cheema MA 2007b Disaster Risk Livelihoods and391Natural Barriers Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction A392Case Study from Northern Pakistan The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Pakistan393Programme Final Report Karachi 53 pp394US Geological Survey (USGS) 2006 Magnitude 76 ndash Pakistan ndash earthquake summary395httpearthquakeusgsgoveqcentereqinthenews2005usdyaeusdyaesummary396accessed 21 August 2007397Varnes DJ 1978 Slope movement types and processes In Schuster RL Krizek RJ398(Eds) Landslides Analysis and Control National Academy of Sciences Transpor-399tation Research Board Special Report vol 176 pp 12ndash33400WMO (WorldMeteorological Organization) 2007 Pakistan httpwwwworldweatherorg401047c00901htm accessed 31 August 2007402WMO (World Meteorological Organization) 2008 Pakistan Muzaffarabad climato-403logical information httpwwwworldweatherorg 047c00901htm accessed 23404December 2008405Yeats RS Parsons T Hussain A Yuji Y 2006 Stress changes with the 8 October 2005406Kashmir earthquake lessons for the future In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T (Eds)407International Conferenceon8October 2005Earthquake in Pakistan Its Implicationsamp408Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Extended Abstract pp 16ndash17

409

7GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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Page 2: Location Query / remark in articlewebcentral.uc.edu/eProf/media/attachment/eprofmediafile_761.pdfThe study area located in AJK and the NWFP covers an area of 80 81 ^ > ^ 750 km2, which

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1 Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya2 northern Pakistan

3 Ghazanfar A Khattak a Lewis A Owen a Ulrich Kamp b Edwin L Harp c

4 a Department of Geology University of Cincinnati Cincinnati OH 45221 USA5 b Department of Geography The University of Montana MT 59812 USA6 c US Geological Survey 1711 Illinois Street Golden CO 80401 USA

7

8

a b s t r a c ta r t i c l e i n f o

9 Article history10 Received 9 June 200911 Received in revised form 18 September 200912 Accepted 22 September 200913 Available online xxxx14151617 Keywords18 Kashmir19

^Earthquake

20^Landsliding

21 Himalaya22

^Photography

23The inuence of the 08 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake and subsequent snow melt and monsoon rainfall24on slope stability was evaluated using repeat photography in the Kashmir Himalaya of northern Pakistan25Sixty-eight landslide-affected locations were selected and photographed in November 2005 MayJune 200626June 2007 and August 2007 to evaluate all potential geomorphic changes Eighty percent of the locations27showed no or very little change 11 of the locations showed a partial vegetation recovery on the slopes28while 9 showed an increase in the landslide area All those locations that showed an increase in landsliding29were located along rivers andor roads The small change in landslide extent is remarkable given that the30region experienced one of the heaviest monsoon seasons in the last decade and is counter to earlier31predictions of accelerated slope erosion by landsliding in the immediate years following the earthquake32Extensive ssures and ground cracks at many localities however still present a potential of future33landsliding under wetter conditions34copy 2009 Elsevier BV All rights reserved

3536

37

38

39 1 Introduction

40 Landslides constitute one of the most common natural hazards in41 many mountain regions of the world and pose a great threat to both42 human lives and property This is particularly the case for high43 mountains such as the Himalaya (Gupta and Joshi 1990 Owen et al44 1995 Anbalagan and Singh 1996 Nath 2004) There are several45 natural and human-made factors that can trigger a landslide but in46 general earthquakes and rainfall are considered as two major47 mechanisms (Keefer 1984 Dai et al 2002 Crosta 2004) This was48 well illustrated on 08 October 2005 when an earthquake measuring49 M76 struck Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and the North West50 Frontier Province (NWFP) in northern Pakistan affecting an area of51

^gt^30000 km2 and triggering thousands of landslides that resulted in

52^~^25500 fatalities (Peiris et al 2006 ERRA 2006 2007 USGS 2006

53 Dunning et al 2007 Sato et al 2007 Kamp et al 2008 in press54 Owen et al 2008) This included the Hattian Bala landslide that55 destroyed three villages and killed

^~^1000 people (Harp and Crone

56 2006 Dunning et al 2007 Owen et al 2008) Snowmelt and rainfall57 during the subsequent spring and monsoon seasons threatened to58 exasperate the hazard by eroding landslide scars and remobilizing59 landslide slopes and debris to cause the landslides to continue to60 evolve (Owen et al 2008)

61For earthquake-triggered landslides however most of the studies62have been concerned with the identication description and docu-63mentation of coseismic landslides particularly those caused by ca-64tastrophic earthquakes (Keefer 1984 Harp and Jibson 1996 Jibson65et al 2004a b) but relationships between coseismic and post-seismic66landsliding activity

^are still poorly understood for most mountain

67regions A large earthquake may initiate disturbance in the substrate68creating ssures increasing porosity and dilating joints and hence can69affect the stability of slopes for a long period after the earthquake70Therefore to predict the landslide behavior for a region that has ex-71perienced a large earthquake it is necessary to track the response of72slopes to landsliding for a signicant period after the earthquake The732005 Kashmir earthquake provided a unique opportunity to study74earthquake-triggered landslides and the subsequent inuence of snow-75melt and monsoon rainfall on the affected slopes We therefore studied76the evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides at 68 locations in77earthquake-affectedareasofAJKand theNWFP in thewesternHimalaya78of northern Pakistan

792 Study area

80The study area located in AJK and the NWFP covers an area of81

^gt^750 km2 which is centered on the epicenter of the 08 October 2005

82Kashmir earthquake (Fig 1) Three rivers drain the study area the83Kunhar (forming theKaghanValley) and theNeelamand JehlumRivers84The Pir Panjal Range bounds the study area to the ESE crossing the85Jhelum Valley To the north the topography is characterized by high

Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

Corresponding author Tel^+^1 513 556 4203 fax

^+^1 513 556 6931

E-mail address LewisOwenucedu (LA Owen)

GEOMOR-03105 No of Pages 7

0169-555X$ ndash see front matter copy 2009 Elsevier BV All rights reserveddoi101016jgeomorph200909035

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Geomorphology

j ourna l homepage wwwe lsev ie rcom locate geomorph

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86 mountains forming the watershed between the Neelam and Kunhar87 Rivers and by the mountains of the tribal area of Indus

^-Kohistan on the

88 northern ank of the Kaghan valley To the west the area is bounded89 by the northward-trending Gali Hills from the towns of Murree and90 Abbottabad Geologically the region is marked by the HazarandashKashmir91 Syntaxis (HKS) which is bounded by the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)92 that thrusts Precambrian metasedimentary rocks over Tertiary sedi-93 mentary rocks of the Murree Formation (Calkins et al 1975 Hussain94 andKhan 1996Hussain et al 2004 Fig 2) The earthquakeoccurredon95 thewestern limbof theHKSand theNWndashSE trendingKashmir Boundary96 Thrust (KBT) which was reactivated during the Kashmir earthquake97 (Baig 2006 Yeats et al 2006)98 The study area has a monsoonal climate with very wet summers99 (Figs 3 and 4) In Muzaffarabad (at

^~^700 m asl) mean maximum and

100 minimum temperatures in January and June are 159 degC and 32 degC and101 376 degC and 221 degC respectively (WMO 2007 2008) Muzaffarabad102 receives

^gt^1500 mm precipitation on average during the year of which

103 one-third falls as rain during the monsoon season from late June until104 the endofAugust (District CensusReport 1998 Figs 3 and4) This often105 results in severe ooding and landsliding notably debris ows During106 the winter precipitation falls as snow at elevations above 1500 m asl

107Little precipitation occurs in spring but snowmelt provides abundant108surfacewaters to slopeswhich results in erosion andor inltration into109slopes signicantly increasing the height of the groundwater table110In November 2005

^4 weeks after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake

111Owen et al (2008) studied 1293 landslides at 174 locations in the112study area and produced a detailed landslide inventory Owen et al113(2008) grouped landslides into six different geomorphicndashgeologicalndash114anthropogenic settings and noted that

^gt^90 of landslides were

115small (lt1000 m2 in area) shallow rock and debris falls and mostly116involved the top few meters of weathered bedrock regolith and soil117Furthermore

^gt^50 of all landsliding sites were associated with road

118construction and human activity In addition Owen et al (2008)119reported extensive ssuring in many of the valley slopes particularly120in the Precambrian dolomites and siliciclastic rocks of the Muzaffar-121abad Formation and also noted that many of the slopes in the footwall122rocks and on midslopes where gradients were

^lt^20^deg showed very

123little evidence of landsliding or ssuring Similarly Sato et al (2007)124reported earthquake related liquefaction and ssuring in the Neelum125Valley and Jayangondaperumal et al (2008) noted similar features126around the city of Jammu in Indian-controlled Kashmir

^~^240 km SE of

127the earthquakes epicenter

Fig 1 Study area and locations of study sites

2 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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128 Sato et al (2007) mapped 2424 landslides using black-and-white129 25-m-resolution SPOT-5 satellite imagery and noted that

^gt^1900

130 (~80) of the landslides were small (lt05 ha in area) whereas 207

131(~10) of the landslides were large (gt1 ha) and occurred on steeper132(gt30o) slopes Sato et al (2007) also noted that most of the landslides133occurred on the hangingwall of the earthquake fault and

^gt^700 (lt30)

134of the landslides occurred within 1 km from the earthquake fault135Analysis by

^Sato et al (2007) and Kamp et al (2008) showed that (i)

136most of the landslides were concentrated in the Miocene mudstone137siltstone and sandstone (50 in Sato et als (2007) study and

^gt^60 in

138Kampet als (2008) study) and (ii) rocksNWof Balakot had thehighest139landslide density (32 and 33 landslideskm2 respectively)140Using a series of different satellite images Dunning et al (2007)141identied 85 pre-earthquake 73 co

^seismic and 21 post-seismic land-

142slides in the Hattian Bala catchment Dunning et al (2007) noted that143most of the landslides that postdate the earthquake-triggered landslides144are located around themargins of the two lakes (Karli and Tang) formed145by the damming of the drainage146Kamp et al (2008) undertook a land-cover classication using147ASTER satellite imagery from October 2005 and mapped 2252 land-148slides They noted that 24 of the entire study area was covered by

Fig 2 Geological map of the study area (simplied after Kaneda et al 2007)Q1

Fig 3 Annual rainfall distribution from 2000 to 2007 at Balakot (N 34o33^ E 73o21

^

WMO 2008)^0 mdash missing data

3GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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ROOF149 landslides in October 2005

^3 weeks after the earthquake Analysis by

150 Kampet al (2008) also showed that the bedrock lithologywas themost151 important landslide-controlling parameter and most of the landslides152 occurred in highly fractured shale slate clastic sediments limestone153 and dolomite mainly of the Murree and Salkhala Formations Kamp154 et al (2008) noted that most of the landsliding occurred on slopes155 ranging from 25

^to 35

^deg and that one-third of the landslides occurred

156 along rivers and one-fth occurred along roads In conclusion Kamp157 et al (2008) showed that areas around many settlements such as158 Muzaffarabad and Balakot are still ldquohighlyrdquo to ldquovery highlyrdquo susceptible159 to future landsliding Kamp et als (2008) study also supported the160 earlier studies of Kumar (2006)Q3 Sudmeier-Rieux (2007a b) and Owen161 et al (2008) which showed that many landslides occurred along faults162 rivers and roads cuts163 Kamp et al (in press)Q4 undertook pre-earthquake landslide164 mapping using 2001 ASTER data and compared the results with165 2005 ASTER data by Kamp et al (2008) The study by Kamp et al (in166 press) showed that the number of landslides increased from 369 in167 2001 (covering an area of 82 km2) to 2252 in October 2005 (covering168 an area of 611 km2) Kamp et al (in press) assumed that the new169 landslides were triggered by the 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks170 and noted that many of the coseismicpost-seismic landsliding in171 2005 occurred in areas that had been dened as potentially dangerous172 on the 2001 landslide susceptibility map

173 3 Methodology

174 Four weeks after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake Owen et al (2008)175 visited the area and examined 1293 landslides at 174 locations in176 Kaghan Valley in NWFP and the Neelam and Jhelum valleys in AJK This177 included photographing and describing all the active slope failures and178 ssuring at the 174 locations Our study builds on eld photographs179 taken in November 2005 by Owen et al (2008) Sixty-eight of Owen180 et als (2008) sites were selected and re-visited and re-photographed181 in MayJune 2006 June 2007 and August 2007 to assess slope con-182 ditions at each location after the snowmelt and monsoon seasons183 (Figs 1 and 5) This allowed us tomake an assessment of the short-term184 changes that occurred after the October 2005 earthquake A data set of185 four photographs per site was therefore produced to compare landslide186 changes after the earthquake (Data supplement item) Photographs

187were adjusted to the same scale within an accuracy of^plusmn^5 using Corel

188Draw graphic software version 12189For the sites that showedminor changes (lt5 area change) between1902005 and 2007 visual estimates were made to calculate percent changes191in landslide surface area For those locations which showed signicant192landslide activity (gt5 area change) the percent change in surface area

^is

193calculated by on-screen digitization of eld photographs Varnes (1978)194classication was used to describe landslide types

1954 Results

196Previous studies showed that the Kashmir earthquake triggered not197only thousands of landslides but also produced extensive ssures and198cracks making the slopes unstable (Dunning et al 2007 Sato et al 2007199Kamp et al 2008 in press Owen et al 2008) Our study revealed that200between 2005 and 2007

^~^80 of the sites either showed no or very little

201change in slope conditions after the earthquake (supplementary data202Table 1 Fig 6) Vegetation growth is clearly very rapid in this monsoon203climate but only 11 of sites showed notable vegetation recovery on the204slopes Our results also revealed that only 9 of the sites showed an205increase in the surface area of landsliding (Fig 3) These data showed that206all the reactivated landslidingoccurredeitheralong riversor roadsorboth207No correlation between post-earthquake landslide activity and rainfall is208evident and all secondary failures were concentrated along roads andor209rivers (Table 1) Similarly all those sites

^showed an increase in the surface

210area after the 2006 snowmelt season which continued to bemodied by211landsliding after the 2006 and 2007 monsoon seasons

2125 Discussion

213Factors that contribute to slope failure during an earthquake214are generally complex and difcult to assess with condence but in215general a critical magnitude and peak ground acceleration has to be216reached for triggering landslides during an earthquake (Keefer 1984217Harp and Jibson 1995 1996 Jibson et al 1998 Cascini et al 2005) In218the case of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake the total number of reported219coseismic landslides (Sato et al 2007 Kamp et al 2008 Owen et al2202008) was signicantly lower than the number of landslides expected221to be generated by an earthquake of similarmagnitude (Keefer 1984)222although this might be because not all the earthquake-triggered223landslides were recorded particularly the smaller landslides

Fig 4 Monthly precipitation from January 2005 to December 2007 at Balakot (N 34o33^ E 73o21

^ WMO 2008)

Fig 5 Examples of repeat photography at ve different sites (A) Landsliding along Kunhar River in Kaghan valley Initial earthquake^shaking produced very few shallow slope

failures but produced extensive ssures and cracks which resulted in extensive secondary landsliding (B) Landsliding along main MuzaffarabadndashChakoth^i road in Jhelum ValleyQ2

Secondary landsliding occurred along the ssures produced by seismic shaking (C) Rapid growth of vegetation on^almost vertical slope along the Kunhar River in Kaghan valley

More than 70 of the slope is re-covered by vegetation by 2007 (D) and (E) Shallow rockfalls in Kaghan and Neelam valleys respectively No signicant changes occurred after theearthquake J=June A=August

4 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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224 Furthermore Owen et al (2008) highlighted that the earthquake-225 generated extensive ssures and cracks throughout the region had the226 potential to cause more landsliding which may increase the number227 of landslides in the coming years228 The available rainfall data from the Pakistan meteorological rain-229 gauge station at Balakot show that 2005 was the driest year and only230 received a total of 1166 mm rainfall compared to 2284 mm in 2006 and231 1212 mm in 2007 (Fig 4) Rainfall during July (597 mm) and August232 2006 (596 mm) however was the heaviest since 2000 with the 6-year233 meanbeing 319 mm for July and 304 mm for August Surprisingly post-234 summer monsoon (2006) repeat photography does not show any235 signicant new landsliding on slopes that were severely disturbed by236 earthquake shaking (Fig 5) We assumed that the ground conditions237 were very dry and that the amount of rainfall was not sufcient enough238 to initiate any new or secondary landslides Similarly more extensive239 landslide activity in the area would have been more if conditions were240 wetter at the time of the earthquake The study area was already241 experiencing drought conditions before the earthquake which may242 have been signicant in minimizing the inuence of pore water pres-243 sures on landsliding In the eld many local inhabitants noted that244 water levels continuously dropped in dug wells and natural springs245 began to dry up over the past few years It is likely that rainfall amounts246 in the study area were not sufcient to exceed the threshold for247 landslide initiation248 Our study shows that most of the secondary landsliding occurred249 on slopes along roads andor rivers (Table 1) which supports the250 observations of Kamp et al (2008 2009) and Owen et al (2008) that251 more than half of the earthquake-triggered landslides are located252 along rivers and roads Undercutting of slopes by river erosion and253 human activities such as road construction deforestation terracing254 and agricultural activities are probably the main reasons for these

^255 secondary failures

256 6 Conclusions

257 The Kashmir earthquake generated extensive landsliding and s-258 suring throughout the study area Within the

^2 years after the earth-

259 quake 80 of the sites examined in our study showed very little or no260 change 11 of sites showed a partial vegetation recovery on slopes261 while 9 showed an increase in the landslide areas All those sites that262 showed an increase in landsliding were located along rivers andor263 roads This lack of signicant change might be attributed to drought264 conditions in the area before the earthquake and insufcient rainfall265 after the earthquake despite the heaviest rains since 2000 occurring266 in 2006 However despite the few slope changes at the study sites267 the extensive ssuring still poses a potential hazard in the region as268 the slopes are still susceptible to future landsliding under wetter con-269 ditions Many settlements and major towns like Muzaffarabad and270 Balakot Garhi Dopatta are still at risk to future landsliding and future271 urban planning must account for this long-term potential threat

272The recurrence of an earthquake of the same magnitude in the273region is not very likely in the near future (Bendick et al 2007 Kondo274et al 2008MonaLisa et al 2008) but ongoing landsliding whichwas275initiated by the earthquake still poses a serious threat to life and276property

2777 Q5Uncited reference

278Kamp et al in preparation

279Acknowledgements

280We thank the National Centre of Excellence in Geology University281of Peshawar Pakistan NSF (EAR-0602675) and The University of Mon-282tana for supporting this research Mrs Aisha Khan Major General283Nadeem Ahmed and the Pakistan Army for eld support The Pakistan284Meteorological Department Peshawar ofce for providing rainfall data285GAK thanks the Pakistan Government and the University of Cincinnati286for providing support to undertake a Master of Science degree at the287University of Cincinnati which helped in completing this paper Thanks288to Editor Richard Marston and three anonymous referees for their con-289structive and useful comments on our manuscript

290Appendix A Supplementary data

291Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in292the online version at doi101016jgeomorph200909035

293References

294Anbalagan R Singh B 1996 Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping of295mountainous terrains a case study from Kumaun Himalaya India Engineering296Geology 42 237ndash246297Baig MS 2006 Active faulting and earthquake deformation in HazarandashKashmir298Syntaxis Azad Kashmir northwest Himalaya In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T299(Eds) International Conference on 8 October 2005 Earthquake in Pakistan Its300Implications and Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Islamabad Pakistan301Extended Abstract pp 27ndash28302Bendick R Bilham R Khan MA Khan SF 2007 Slip on an active wedge thrust from303geodetic observations of the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geology 35304267ndash270305Calkins AJ Ofeld WT Abdullah SKM Ali ST 1975 Geology of the southern306Himalaya in Hazara Pakistan and adjacent areas Geological Survey Professional307Paper 716-C US Government Printing Ofce Washington DC 29 pp308Cascini L Bonnard C Corominas J Jibson R Montero-Olarte J 2005 Landslide309hazard and risk zoning for urban planning and development In Hungr O Fell R310Couture R Eberthardt E (Eds) Landslide Risk Management Taylor and Francis311London pp 199ndash235312Crosta GB 2004 Introduction to the special issue on rainfall triggered

^landslides and

313debris ows Engineering Geology 73 191ndash192314Dai EC Lee CF Nagi YY 2002 Landslide risk assessment and management an315overview Engineering Geology 64 65ndash87316District Census Report 1998 Population Census Organization Islamabad Pakistan317Dunning SA Mitchell WA Rosser NJ Petley DN 2007 The Hattian Bala rock318avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir earthquake of3198 October 2005 Engineering Geology 93 130ndash144320ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2006 Annual321Review 2005ndash2006 The Army Press Islamabad 112 pp322ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2007 District323Prole-Muzaffarabad Kamran Printers Islamabad 76 pp324Gupta RP Joshi BC 1990 Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach a case study325from the Ramganga catchment Himalayas Engineering Geology 28 119ndash132326Harp EL Jibson RW 1995 Inventory of landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge327California earthquake US Geological Survey Open File Report pp 95ndash213328Harp EL Jibson RW 1996 Landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge California329earthquake Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86 319ndash332330Harp EL Crone AJ 2006 Landslides Triggered by the October 8 2005 Pakistan331Earthquake and Associated Landslide-dammed Reservoirs US Geological Survey332Open-File Report 2006-1052 Washington DC 10 pp333Hussain A Khan RN 1996 Geological map of Azad Jammu and Kashmir Geological334Survey of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan335Hussain A Mughal N Haq I Latif A 2004 Geological map of the Garhi Habibullah336Area District Mansehra and parts of Muzaffarabad District AJK Geological Survey337of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan338Jayangondaperumal R Thakur VC Suresh N 2008 Liquefaction features of the 2005339MuzaffarabadndashKashmir earthquake and evidence of palaeoearthquakes near340Jammu Kashmir Himalaya Current Science 95 1071ndash1077

Fig 6 Post-earthquake landslide activity at the study sites

6 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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341 Jibson RW Harp EL Michael JA 1998 A method for producing digital probabilistic342 seismic landslide hazard maps an example from the Los Angeles California area343 US Geological Survey Open File Report Boulder Colorado pp 98ndash113344 Jibson RW Crone AJ Harp EL Baum RL Major JJ Pullinger CR Escobar CD345 Marinez M Smith ME 2004b Landslides triggered by the 13 January and 13346 February 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador In Bommer JJ Rose WI Loacutepez DL347 Carr MJ Major JJ (Eds) Natural Hazards in El Salvador Geological Society of348 America Special Paper vol 375 Geological Society of America Boulder Colorado349 pp 69ndash88350 Jibson RW Harp EL Schulz W Keefer DK 2004a Landslides triggered by the 2002351 Denali Fault Alaska earthquake and the inferred nature of the strong shaking352 Earthquake Spectra 20 669ndash691353 Kamp U Growley BJ Khattak GA Owen LA 2008 GIS-based landslide susceptibility354 mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region Geomorphology 101 631ndash642355 Kamp U Owen LA Growley BJ Khattak GA 2009 Back analysis of landslide356 susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake an assessment357 of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps Natural Hazards in pressQ6358 Kamp U Owen LA Parker Hamilton J Halvorson SJ in preparation The 2005359 Kashmir earthquake an assessment of the ad hoc rebuilding effort Environmental360 HazardsQ7361 Keefer DK 1984 Landslides caused by earthquakes Geological Society of America362 Bulletin 95 406ndash421363 Kondo H Nakata T Akhtar SS Wesnousky SG Sugito N Kaneda H Tsutsumi H364 Khan AM Khattak W Kausar AB 2008 Long recurrence interval of faulting365 beyond the 2005 Kashmir earthquake around the northwestern margin of the366 Indo

^-Asian collision zone Geology 36 731ndash734

367 MonaLisa Khwaja AA Jan MQ 2008 The 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake368 preliminary seismological investigations and probabilistic estimation of peak ground369 accelerations Current Science 94 1158ndash1166370 Nath SK 2004 Seismic hazard mapping and microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya371 through GIS integration of site effects and strong ground motion attributes Natural372 Hazards 31 319ndash342373 Owen LA Sharma MC Bigwood R 1995 Mass movement hazard in the Garhwal374 Himalaya the effects of the20October 1991Garhwal earthquakeand the JulyndashAugust

3751992 monsoon season In McGregor DFM Thompson DA (Eds) Geomorphology376and Land Management in a Changing Environment Wiley Chichester pp 69ndash88377Owen LA Kamp U Khattak GA Harp E Keefer DK Bauer M 2008 Landslides378triggered by the October 8 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geomorphology 94 1ndash9379Peiris N Rossetto T Burton P Mahmood S 2006 EEFITMission October 8 2005 Kashmir380Earthquake Published Report The Institution of Structural Engineers London381Sato HP Hasegawa H Fujiwara S Tobita M Koarai M Une H Iwahashi J 2007382Interpretation of landslide distribution triggered by the 2005 Northern Pakistan383earthquake using SPOT 5 imagery Landslides 4 113ndash122384Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P JaboyedoffMJ Breguet A Dubois J Jaubert R385Cheema MA 2007a An interdisciplinary approach to understanding landslides and386risk management a case study from earthquake-affected Kashmir Mountain Forum387Mountain GIS e-Conference January 14ndash25 2008 httpwwwmtnforumorgrsec388sclesNeelum_PAK_landslides_2007pdf389Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P Nessi J Breguet A Dubois J Jaboyedoff MJ390Jaubert R Rietbergen S Klaus R Cheema MA 2007b Disaster Risk Livelihoods and391Natural Barriers Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction A392Case Study from Northern Pakistan The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Pakistan393Programme Final Report Karachi 53 pp394US Geological Survey (USGS) 2006 Magnitude 76 ndash Pakistan ndash earthquake summary395httpearthquakeusgsgoveqcentereqinthenews2005usdyaeusdyaesummary396accessed 21 August 2007397Varnes DJ 1978 Slope movement types and processes In Schuster RL Krizek RJ398(Eds) Landslides Analysis and Control National Academy of Sciences Transpor-399tation Research Board Special Report vol 176 pp 12ndash33400WMO (WorldMeteorological Organization) 2007 Pakistan httpwwwworldweatherorg401047c00901htm accessed 31 August 2007402WMO (World Meteorological Organization) 2008 Pakistan Muzaffarabad climato-403logical information httpwwwworldweatherorg 047c00901htm accessed 23404December 2008405Yeats RS Parsons T Hussain A Yuji Y 2006 Stress changes with the 8 October 2005406Kashmir earthquake lessons for the future In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T (Eds)407International Conferenceon8October 2005Earthquake in Pakistan Its Implicationsamp408Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Extended Abstract pp 16ndash17

409

7GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

Page 3: Location Query / remark in articlewebcentral.uc.edu/eProf/media/attachment/eprofmediafile_761.pdfThe study area located in AJK and the NWFP covers an area of 80 81 ^ > ^ 750 km2, which

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86 mountains forming the watershed between the Neelam and Kunhar87 Rivers and by the mountains of the tribal area of Indus

^-Kohistan on the

88 northern ank of the Kaghan valley To the west the area is bounded89 by the northward-trending Gali Hills from the towns of Murree and90 Abbottabad Geologically the region is marked by the HazarandashKashmir91 Syntaxis (HKS) which is bounded by the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)92 that thrusts Precambrian metasedimentary rocks over Tertiary sedi-93 mentary rocks of the Murree Formation (Calkins et al 1975 Hussain94 andKhan 1996Hussain et al 2004 Fig 2) The earthquakeoccurredon95 thewestern limbof theHKSand theNWndashSE trendingKashmir Boundary96 Thrust (KBT) which was reactivated during the Kashmir earthquake97 (Baig 2006 Yeats et al 2006)98 The study area has a monsoonal climate with very wet summers99 (Figs 3 and 4) In Muzaffarabad (at

^~^700 m asl) mean maximum and

100 minimum temperatures in January and June are 159 degC and 32 degC and101 376 degC and 221 degC respectively (WMO 2007 2008) Muzaffarabad102 receives

^gt^1500 mm precipitation on average during the year of which

103 one-third falls as rain during the monsoon season from late June until104 the endofAugust (District CensusReport 1998 Figs 3 and4) This often105 results in severe ooding and landsliding notably debris ows During106 the winter precipitation falls as snow at elevations above 1500 m asl

107Little precipitation occurs in spring but snowmelt provides abundant108surfacewaters to slopeswhich results in erosion andor inltration into109slopes signicantly increasing the height of the groundwater table110In November 2005

^4 weeks after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake

111Owen et al (2008) studied 1293 landslides at 174 locations in the112study area and produced a detailed landslide inventory Owen et al113(2008) grouped landslides into six different geomorphicndashgeologicalndash114anthropogenic settings and noted that

^gt^90 of landslides were

115small (lt1000 m2 in area) shallow rock and debris falls and mostly116involved the top few meters of weathered bedrock regolith and soil117Furthermore

^gt^50 of all landsliding sites were associated with road

118construction and human activity In addition Owen et al (2008)119reported extensive ssuring in many of the valley slopes particularly120in the Precambrian dolomites and siliciclastic rocks of the Muzaffar-121abad Formation and also noted that many of the slopes in the footwall122rocks and on midslopes where gradients were

^lt^20^deg showed very

123little evidence of landsliding or ssuring Similarly Sato et al (2007)124reported earthquake related liquefaction and ssuring in the Neelum125Valley and Jayangondaperumal et al (2008) noted similar features126around the city of Jammu in Indian-controlled Kashmir

^~^240 km SE of

127the earthquakes epicenter

Fig 1 Study area and locations of study sites

2 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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128 Sato et al (2007) mapped 2424 landslides using black-and-white129 25-m-resolution SPOT-5 satellite imagery and noted that

^gt^1900

130 (~80) of the landslides were small (lt05 ha in area) whereas 207

131(~10) of the landslides were large (gt1 ha) and occurred on steeper132(gt30o) slopes Sato et al (2007) also noted that most of the landslides133occurred on the hangingwall of the earthquake fault and

^gt^700 (lt30)

134of the landslides occurred within 1 km from the earthquake fault135Analysis by

^Sato et al (2007) and Kamp et al (2008) showed that (i)

136most of the landslides were concentrated in the Miocene mudstone137siltstone and sandstone (50 in Sato et als (2007) study and

^gt^60 in

138Kampet als (2008) study) and (ii) rocksNWof Balakot had thehighest139landslide density (32 and 33 landslideskm2 respectively)140Using a series of different satellite images Dunning et al (2007)141identied 85 pre-earthquake 73 co

^seismic and 21 post-seismic land-

142slides in the Hattian Bala catchment Dunning et al (2007) noted that143most of the landslides that postdate the earthquake-triggered landslides144are located around themargins of the two lakes (Karli and Tang) formed145by the damming of the drainage146Kamp et al (2008) undertook a land-cover classication using147ASTER satellite imagery from October 2005 and mapped 2252 land-148slides They noted that 24 of the entire study area was covered by

Fig 2 Geological map of the study area (simplied after Kaneda et al 2007)Q1

Fig 3 Annual rainfall distribution from 2000 to 2007 at Balakot (N 34o33^ E 73o21

^

WMO 2008)^0 mdash missing data

3GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

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TED P

ROOF149 landslides in October 2005

^3 weeks after the earthquake Analysis by

150 Kampet al (2008) also showed that the bedrock lithologywas themost151 important landslide-controlling parameter and most of the landslides152 occurred in highly fractured shale slate clastic sediments limestone153 and dolomite mainly of the Murree and Salkhala Formations Kamp154 et al (2008) noted that most of the landsliding occurred on slopes155 ranging from 25

^to 35

^deg and that one-third of the landslides occurred

156 along rivers and one-fth occurred along roads In conclusion Kamp157 et al (2008) showed that areas around many settlements such as158 Muzaffarabad and Balakot are still ldquohighlyrdquo to ldquovery highlyrdquo susceptible159 to future landsliding Kamp et als (2008) study also supported the160 earlier studies of Kumar (2006)Q3 Sudmeier-Rieux (2007a b) and Owen161 et al (2008) which showed that many landslides occurred along faults162 rivers and roads cuts163 Kamp et al (in press)Q4 undertook pre-earthquake landslide164 mapping using 2001 ASTER data and compared the results with165 2005 ASTER data by Kamp et al (2008) The study by Kamp et al (in166 press) showed that the number of landslides increased from 369 in167 2001 (covering an area of 82 km2) to 2252 in October 2005 (covering168 an area of 611 km2) Kamp et al (in press) assumed that the new169 landslides were triggered by the 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks170 and noted that many of the coseismicpost-seismic landsliding in171 2005 occurred in areas that had been dened as potentially dangerous172 on the 2001 landslide susceptibility map

173 3 Methodology

174 Four weeks after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake Owen et al (2008)175 visited the area and examined 1293 landslides at 174 locations in176 Kaghan Valley in NWFP and the Neelam and Jhelum valleys in AJK This177 included photographing and describing all the active slope failures and178 ssuring at the 174 locations Our study builds on eld photographs179 taken in November 2005 by Owen et al (2008) Sixty-eight of Owen180 et als (2008) sites were selected and re-visited and re-photographed181 in MayJune 2006 June 2007 and August 2007 to assess slope con-182 ditions at each location after the snowmelt and monsoon seasons183 (Figs 1 and 5) This allowed us tomake an assessment of the short-term184 changes that occurred after the October 2005 earthquake A data set of185 four photographs per site was therefore produced to compare landslide186 changes after the earthquake (Data supplement item) Photographs

187were adjusted to the same scale within an accuracy of^plusmn^5 using Corel

188Draw graphic software version 12189For the sites that showedminor changes (lt5 area change) between1902005 and 2007 visual estimates were made to calculate percent changes191in landslide surface area For those locations which showed signicant192landslide activity (gt5 area change) the percent change in surface area

^is

193calculated by on-screen digitization of eld photographs Varnes (1978)194classication was used to describe landslide types

1954 Results

196Previous studies showed that the Kashmir earthquake triggered not197only thousands of landslides but also produced extensive ssures and198cracks making the slopes unstable (Dunning et al 2007 Sato et al 2007199Kamp et al 2008 in press Owen et al 2008) Our study revealed that200between 2005 and 2007

^~^80 of the sites either showed no or very little

201change in slope conditions after the earthquake (supplementary data202Table 1 Fig 6) Vegetation growth is clearly very rapid in this monsoon203climate but only 11 of sites showed notable vegetation recovery on the204slopes Our results also revealed that only 9 of the sites showed an205increase in the surface area of landsliding (Fig 3) These data showed that206all the reactivated landslidingoccurredeitheralong riversor roadsorboth207No correlation between post-earthquake landslide activity and rainfall is208evident and all secondary failures were concentrated along roads andor209rivers (Table 1) Similarly all those sites

^showed an increase in the surface

210area after the 2006 snowmelt season which continued to bemodied by211landsliding after the 2006 and 2007 monsoon seasons

2125 Discussion

213Factors that contribute to slope failure during an earthquake214are generally complex and difcult to assess with condence but in215general a critical magnitude and peak ground acceleration has to be216reached for triggering landslides during an earthquake (Keefer 1984217Harp and Jibson 1995 1996 Jibson et al 1998 Cascini et al 2005) In218the case of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake the total number of reported219coseismic landslides (Sato et al 2007 Kamp et al 2008 Owen et al2202008) was signicantly lower than the number of landslides expected221to be generated by an earthquake of similarmagnitude (Keefer 1984)222although this might be because not all the earthquake-triggered223landslides were recorded particularly the smaller landslides

Fig 4 Monthly precipitation from January 2005 to December 2007 at Balakot (N 34o33^ E 73o21

^ WMO 2008)

Fig 5 Examples of repeat photography at ve different sites (A) Landsliding along Kunhar River in Kaghan valley Initial earthquake^shaking produced very few shallow slope

failures but produced extensive ssures and cracks which resulted in extensive secondary landsliding (B) Landsliding along main MuzaffarabadndashChakoth^i road in Jhelum ValleyQ2

Secondary landsliding occurred along the ssures produced by seismic shaking (C) Rapid growth of vegetation on^almost vertical slope along the Kunhar River in Kaghan valley

More than 70 of the slope is re-covered by vegetation by 2007 (D) and (E) Shallow rockfalls in Kaghan and Neelam valleys respectively No signicant changes occurred after theearthquake J=June A=August

4 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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5GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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224 Furthermore Owen et al (2008) highlighted that the earthquake-225 generated extensive ssures and cracks throughout the region had the226 potential to cause more landsliding which may increase the number227 of landslides in the coming years228 The available rainfall data from the Pakistan meteorological rain-229 gauge station at Balakot show that 2005 was the driest year and only230 received a total of 1166 mm rainfall compared to 2284 mm in 2006 and231 1212 mm in 2007 (Fig 4) Rainfall during July (597 mm) and August232 2006 (596 mm) however was the heaviest since 2000 with the 6-year233 meanbeing 319 mm for July and 304 mm for August Surprisingly post-234 summer monsoon (2006) repeat photography does not show any235 signicant new landsliding on slopes that were severely disturbed by236 earthquake shaking (Fig 5) We assumed that the ground conditions237 were very dry and that the amount of rainfall was not sufcient enough238 to initiate any new or secondary landslides Similarly more extensive239 landslide activity in the area would have been more if conditions were240 wetter at the time of the earthquake The study area was already241 experiencing drought conditions before the earthquake which may242 have been signicant in minimizing the inuence of pore water pres-243 sures on landsliding In the eld many local inhabitants noted that244 water levels continuously dropped in dug wells and natural springs245 began to dry up over the past few years It is likely that rainfall amounts246 in the study area were not sufcient to exceed the threshold for247 landslide initiation248 Our study shows that most of the secondary landsliding occurred249 on slopes along roads andor rivers (Table 1) which supports the250 observations of Kamp et al (2008 2009) and Owen et al (2008) that251 more than half of the earthquake-triggered landslides are located252 along rivers and roads Undercutting of slopes by river erosion and253 human activities such as road construction deforestation terracing254 and agricultural activities are probably the main reasons for these

^255 secondary failures

256 6 Conclusions

257 The Kashmir earthquake generated extensive landsliding and s-258 suring throughout the study area Within the

^2 years after the earth-

259 quake 80 of the sites examined in our study showed very little or no260 change 11 of sites showed a partial vegetation recovery on slopes261 while 9 showed an increase in the landslide areas All those sites that262 showed an increase in landsliding were located along rivers andor263 roads This lack of signicant change might be attributed to drought264 conditions in the area before the earthquake and insufcient rainfall265 after the earthquake despite the heaviest rains since 2000 occurring266 in 2006 However despite the few slope changes at the study sites267 the extensive ssuring still poses a potential hazard in the region as268 the slopes are still susceptible to future landsliding under wetter con-269 ditions Many settlements and major towns like Muzaffarabad and270 Balakot Garhi Dopatta are still at risk to future landsliding and future271 urban planning must account for this long-term potential threat

272The recurrence of an earthquake of the same magnitude in the273region is not very likely in the near future (Bendick et al 2007 Kondo274et al 2008MonaLisa et al 2008) but ongoing landsliding whichwas275initiated by the earthquake still poses a serious threat to life and276property

2777 Q5Uncited reference

278Kamp et al in preparation

279Acknowledgements

280We thank the National Centre of Excellence in Geology University281of Peshawar Pakistan NSF (EAR-0602675) and The University of Mon-282tana for supporting this research Mrs Aisha Khan Major General283Nadeem Ahmed and the Pakistan Army for eld support The Pakistan284Meteorological Department Peshawar ofce for providing rainfall data285GAK thanks the Pakistan Government and the University of Cincinnati286for providing support to undertake a Master of Science degree at the287University of Cincinnati which helped in completing this paper Thanks288to Editor Richard Marston and three anonymous referees for their con-289structive and useful comments on our manuscript

290Appendix A Supplementary data

291Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in292the online version at doi101016jgeomorph200909035

293References

294Anbalagan R Singh B 1996 Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping of295mountainous terrains a case study from Kumaun Himalaya India Engineering296Geology 42 237ndash246297Baig MS 2006 Active faulting and earthquake deformation in HazarandashKashmir298Syntaxis Azad Kashmir northwest Himalaya In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T299(Eds) International Conference on 8 October 2005 Earthquake in Pakistan Its300Implications and Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Islamabad Pakistan301Extended Abstract pp 27ndash28302Bendick R Bilham R Khan MA Khan SF 2007 Slip on an active wedge thrust from303geodetic observations of the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geology 35304267ndash270305Calkins AJ Ofeld WT Abdullah SKM Ali ST 1975 Geology of the southern306Himalaya in Hazara Pakistan and adjacent areas Geological Survey Professional307Paper 716-C US Government Printing Ofce Washington DC 29 pp308Cascini L Bonnard C Corominas J Jibson R Montero-Olarte J 2005 Landslide309hazard and risk zoning for urban planning and development In Hungr O Fell R310Couture R Eberthardt E (Eds) Landslide Risk Management Taylor and Francis311London pp 199ndash235312Crosta GB 2004 Introduction to the special issue on rainfall triggered

^landslides and

313debris ows Engineering Geology 73 191ndash192314Dai EC Lee CF Nagi YY 2002 Landslide risk assessment and management an315overview Engineering Geology 64 65ndash87316District Census Report 1998 Population Census Organization Islamabad Pakistan317Dunning SA Mitchell WA Rosser NJ Petley DN 2007 The Hattian Bala rock318avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir earthquake of3198 October 2005 Engineering Geology 93 130ndash144320ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2006 Annual321Review 2005ndash2006 The Army Press Islamabad 112 pp322ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2007 District323Prole-Muzaffarabad Kamran Printers Islamabad 76 pp324Gupta RP Joshi BC 1990 Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach a case study325from the Ramganga catchment Himalayas Engineering Geology 28 119ndash132326Harp EL Jibson RW 1995 Inventory of landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge327California earthquake US Geological Survey Open File Report pp 95ndash213328Harp EL Jibson RW 1996 Landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge California329earthquake Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86 319ndash332330Harp EL Crone AJ 2006 Landslides Triggered by the October 8 2005 Pakistan331Earthquake and Associated Landslide-dammed Reservoirs US Geological Survey332Open-File Report 2006-1052 Washington DC 10 pp333Hussain A Khan RN 1996 Geological map of Azad Jammu and Kashmir Geological334Survey of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan335Hussain A Mughal N Haq I Latif A 2004 Geological map of the Garhi Habibullah336Area District Mansehra and parts of Muzaffarabad District AJK Geological Survey337of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan338Jayangondaperumal R Thakur VC Suresh N 2008 Liquefaction features of the 2005339MuzaffarabadndashKashmir earthquake and evidence of palaeoearthquakes near340Jammu Kashmir Himalaya Current Science 95 1071ndash1077

Fig 6 Post-earthquake landslide activity at the study sites

6 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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341 Jibson RW Harp EL Michael JA 1998 A method for producing digital probabilistic342 seismic landslide hazard maps an example from the Los Angeles California area343 US Geological Survey Open File Report Boulder Colorado pp 98ndash113344 Jibson RW Crone AJ Harp EL Baum RL Major JJ Pullinger CR Escobar CD345 Marinez M Smith ME 2004b Landslides triggered by the 13 January and 13346 February 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador In Bommer JJ Rose WI Loacutepez DL347 Carr MJ Major JJ (Eds) Natural Hazards in El Salvador Geological Society of348 America Special Paper vol 375 Geological Society of America Boulder Colorado349 pp 69ndash88350 Jibson RW Harp EL Schulz W Keefer DK 2004a Landslides triggered by the 2002351 Denali Fault Alaska earthquake and the inferred nature of the strong shaking352 Earthquake Spectra 20 669ndash691353 Kamp U Growley BJ Khattak GA Owen LA 2008 GIS-based landslide susceptibility354 mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region Geomorphology 101 631ndash642355 Kamp U Owen LA Growley BJ Khattak GA 2009 Back analysis of landslide356 susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake an assessment357 of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps Natural Hazards in pressQ6358 Kamp U Owen LA Parker Hamilton J Halvorson SJ in preparation The 2005359 Kashmir earthquake an assessment of the ad hoc rebuilding effort Environmental360 HazardsQ7361 Keefer DK 1984 Landslides caused by earthquakes Geological Society of America362 Bulletin 95 406ndash421363 Kondo H Nakata T Akhtar SS Wesnousky SG Sugito N Kaneda H Tsutsumi H364 Khan AM Khattak W Kausar AB 2008 Long recurrence interval of faulting365 beyond the 2005 Kashmir earthquake around the northwestern margin of the366 Indo

^-Asian collision zone Geology 36 731ndash734

367 MonaLisa Khwaja AA Jan MQ 2008 The 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake368 preliminary seismological investigations and probabilistic estimation of peak ground369 accelerations Current Science 94 1158ndash1166370 Nath SK 2004 Seismic hazard mapping and microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya371 through GIS integration of site effects and strong ground motion attributes Natural372 Hazards 31 319ndash342373 Owen LA Sharma MC Bigwood R 1995 Mass movement hazard in the Garhwal374 Himalaya the effects of the20October 1991Garhwal earthquakeand the JulyndashAugust

3751992 monsoon season In McGregor DFM Thompson DA (Eds) Geomorphology376and Land Management in a Changing Environment Wiley Chichester pp 69ndash88377Owen LA Kamp U Khattak GA Harp E Keefer DK Bauer M 2008 Landslides378triggered by the October 8 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geomorphology 94 1ndash9379Peiris N Rossetto T Burton P Mahmood S 2006 EEFITMission October 8 2005 Kashmir380Earthquake Published Report The Institution of Structural Engineers London381Sato HP Hasegawa H Fujiwara S Tobita M Koarai M Une H Iwahashi J 2007382Interpretation of landslide distribution triggered by the 2005 Northern Pakistan383earthquake using SPOT 5 imagery Landslides 4 113ndash122384Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P JaboyedoffMJ Breguet A Dubois J Jaubert R385Cheema MA 2007a An interdisciplinary approach to understanding landslides and386risk management a case study from earthquake-affected Kashmir Mountain Forum387Mountain GIS e-Conference January 14ndash25 2008 httpwwwmtnforumorgrsec388sclesNeelum_PAK_landslides_2007pdf389Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P Nessi J Breguet A Dubois J Jaboyedoff MJ390Jaubert R Rietbergen S Klaus R Cheema MA 2007b Disaster Risk Livelihoods and391Natural Barriers Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction A392Case Study from Northern Pakistan The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Pakistan393Programme Final Report Karachi 53 pp394US Geological Survey (USGS) 2006 Magnitude 76 ndash Pakistan ndash earthquake summary395httpearthquakeusgsgoveqcentereqinthenews2005usdyaeusdyaesummary396accessed 21 August 2007397Varnes DJ 1978 Slope movement types and processes In Schuster RL Krizek RJ398(Eds) Landslides Analysis and Control National Academy of Sciences Transpor-399tation Research Board Special Report vol 176 pp 12ndash33400WMO (WorldMeteorological Organization) 2007 Pakistan httpwwwworldweatherorg401047c00901htm accessed 31 August 2007402WMO (World Meteorological Organization) 2008 Pakistan Muzaffarabad climato-403logical information httpwwwworldweatherorg 047c00901htm accessed 23404December 2008405Yeats RS Parsons T Hussain A Yuji Y 2006 Stress changes with the 8 October 2005406Kashmir earthquake lessons for the future In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T (Eds)407International Conferenceon8October 2005Earthquake in Pakistan Its Implicationsamp408Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Extended Abstract pp 16ndash17

409

7GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

Page 4: Location Query / remark in articlewebcentral.uc.edu/eProf/media/attachment/eprofmediafile_761.pdfThe study area located in AJK and the NWFP covers an area of 80 81 ^ > ^ 750 km2, which

UNCO

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128 Sato et al (2007) mapped 2424 landslides using black-and-white129 25-m-resolution SPOT-5 satellite imagery and noted that

^gt^1900

130 (~80) of the landslides were small (lt05 ha in area) whereas 207

131(~10) of the landslides were large (gt1 ha) and occurred on steeper132(gt30o) slopes Sato et al (2007) also noted that most of the landslides133occurred on the hangingwall of the earthquake fault and

^gt^700 (lt30)

134of the landslides occurred within 1 km from the earthquake fault135Analysis by

^Sato et al (2007) and Kamp et al (2008) showed that (i)

136most of the landslides were concentrated in the Miocene mudstone137siltstone and sandstone (50 in Sato et als (2007) study and

^gt^60 in

138Kampet als (2008) study) and (ii) rocksNWof Balakot had thehighest139landslide density (32 and 33 landslideskm2 respectively)140Using a series of different satellite images Dunning et al (2007)141identied 85 pre-earthquake 73 co

^seismic and 21 post-seismic land-

142slides in the Hattian Bala catchment Dunning et al (2007) noted that143most of the landslides that postdate the earthquake-triggered landslides144are located around themargins of the two lakes (Karli and Tang) formed145by the damming of the drainage146Kamp et al (2008) undertook a land-cover classication using147ASTER satellite imagery from October 2005 and mapped 2252 land-148slides They noted that 24 of the entire study area was covered by

Fig 2 Geological map of the study area (simplied after Kaneda et al 2007)Q1

Fig 3 Annual rainfall distribution from 2000 to 2007 at Balakot (N 34o33^ E 73o21

^

WMO 2008)^0 mdash missing data

3GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

UNCO

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TED P

ROOF149 landslides in October 2005

^3 weeks after the earthquake Analysis by

150 Kampet al (2008) also showed that the bedrock lithologywas themost151 important landslide-controlling parameter and most of the landslides152 occurred in highly fractured shale slate clastic sediments limestone153 and dolomite mainly of the Murree and Salkhala Formations Kamp154 et al (2008) noted that most of the landsliding occurred on slopes155 ranging from 25

^to 35

^deg and that one-third of the landslides occurred

156 along rivers and one-fth occurred along roads In conclusion Kamp157 et al (2008) showed that areas around many settlements such as158 Muzaffarabad and Balakot are still ldquohighlyrdquo to ldquovery highlyrdquo susceptible159 to future landsliding Kamp et als (2008) study also supported the160 earlier studies of Kumar (2006)Q3 Sudmeier-Rieux (2007a b) and Owen161 et al (2008) which showed that many landslides occurred along faults162 rivers and roads cuts163 Kamp et al (in press)Q4 undertook pre-earthquake landslide164 mapping using 2001 ASTER data and compared the results with165 2005 ASTER data by Kamp et al (2008) The study by Kamp et al (in166 press) showed that the number of landslides increased from 369 in167 2001 (covering an area of 82 km2) to 2252 in October 2005 (covering168 an area of 611 km2) Kamp et al (in press) assumed that the new169 landslides were triggered by the 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks170 and noted that many of the coseismicpost-seismic landsliding in171 2005 occurred in areas that had been dened as potentially dangerous172 on the 2001 landslide susceptibility map

173 3 Methodology

174 Four weeks after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake Owen et al (2008)175 visited the area and examined 1293 landslides at 174 locations in176 Kaghan Valley in NWFP and the Neelam and Jhelum valleys in AJK This177 included photographing and describing all the active slope failures and178 ssuring at the 174 locations Our study builds on eld photographs179 taken in November 2005 by Owen et al (2008) Sixty-eight of Owen180 et als (2008) sites were selected and re-visited and re-photographed181 in MayJune 2006 June 2007 and August 2007 to assess slope con-182 ditions at each location after the snowmelt and monsoon seasons183 (Figs 1 and 5) This allowed us tomake an assessment of the short-term184 changes that occurred after the October 2005 earthquake A data set of185 four photographs per site was therefore produced to compare landslide186 changes after the earthquake (Data supplement item) Photographs

187were adjusted to the same scale within an accuracy of^plusmn^5 using Corel

188Draw graphic software version 12189For the sites that showedminor changes (lt5 area change) between1902005 and 2007 visual estimates were made to calculate percent changes191in landslide surface area For those locations which showed signicant192landslide activity (gt5 area change) the percent change in surface area

^is

193calculated by on-screen digitization of eld photographs Varnes (1978)194classication was used to describe landslide types

1954 Results

196Previous studies showed that the Kashmir earthquake triggered not197only thousands of landslides but also produced extensive ssures and198cracks making the slopes unstable (Dunning et al 2007 Sato et al 2007199Kamp et al 2008 in press Owen et al 2008) Our study revealed that200between 2005 and 2007

^~^80 of the sites either showed no or very little

201change in slope conditions after the earthquake (supplementary data202Table 1 Fig 6) Vegetation growth is clearly very rapid in this monsoon203climate but only 11 of sites showed notable vegetation recovery on the204slopes Our results also revealed that only 9 of the sites showed an205increase in the surface area of landsliding (Fig 3) These data showed that206all the reactivated landslidingoccurredeitheralong riversor roadsorboth207No correlation between post-earthquake landslide activity and rainfall is208evident and all secondary failures were concentrated along roads andor209rivers (Table 1) Similarly all those sites

^showed an increase in the surface

210area after the 2006 snowmelt season which continued to bemodied by211landsliding after the 2006 and 2007 monsoon seasons

2125 Discussion

213Factors that contribute to slope failure during an earthquake214are generally complex and difcult to assess with condence but in215general a critical magnitude and peak ground acceleration has to be216reached for triggering landslides during an earthquake (Keefer 1984217Harp and Jibson 1995 1996 Jibson et al 1998 Cascini et al 2005) In218the case of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake the total number of reported219coseismic landslides (Sato et al 2007 Kamp et al 2008 Owen et al2202008) was signicantly lower than the number of landslides expected221to be generated by an earthquake of similarmagnitude (Keefer 1984)222although this might be because not all the earthquake-triggered223landslides were recorded particularly the smaller landslides

Fig 4 Monthly precipitation from January 2005 to December 2007 at Balakot (N 34o33^ E 73o21

^ WMO 2008)

Fig 5 Examples of repeat photography at ve different sites (A) Landsliding along Kunhar River in Kaghan valley Initial earthquake^shaking produced very few shallow slope

failures but produced extensive ssures and cracks which resulted in extensive secondary landsliding (B) Landsliding along main MuzaffarabadndashChakoth^i road in Jhelum ValleyQ2

Secondary landsliding occurred along the ssures produced by seismic shaking (C) Rapid growth of vegetation on^almost vertical slope along the Kunhar River in Kaghan valley

More than 70 of the slope is re-covered by vegetation by 2007 (D) and (E) Shallow rockfalls in Kaghan and Neelam valleys respectively No signicant changes occurred after theearthquake J=June A=August

4 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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224 Furthermore Owen et al (2008) highlighted that the earthquake-225 generated extensive ssures and cracks throughout the region had the226 potential to cause more landsliding which may increase the number227 of landslides in the coming years228 The available rainfall data from the Pakistan meteorological rain-229 gauge station at Balakot show that 2005 was the driest year and only230 received a total of 1166 mm rainfall compared to 2284 mm in 2006 and231 1212 mm in 2007 (Fig 4) Rainfall during July (597 mm) and August232 2006 (596 mm) however was the heaviest since 2000 with the 6-year233 meanbeing 319 mm for July and 304 mm for August Surprisingly post-234 summer monsoon (2006) repeat photography does not show any235 signicant new landsliding on slopes that were severely disturbed by236 earthquake shaking (Fig 5) We assumed that the ground conditions237 were very dry and that the amount of rainfall was not sufcient enough238 to initiate any new or secondary landslides Similarly more extensive239 landslide activity in the area would have been more if conditions were240 wetter at the time of the earthquake The study area was already241 experiencing drought conditions before the earthquake which may242 have been signicant in minimizing the inuence of pore water pres-243 sures on landsliding In the eld many local inhabitants noted that244 water levels continuously dropped in dug wells and natural springs245 began to dry up over the past few years It is likely that rainfall amounts246 in the study area were not sufcient to exceed the threshold for247 landslide initiation248 Our study shows that most of the secondary landsliding occurred249 on slopes along roads andor rivers (Table 1) which supports the250 observations of Kamp et al (2008 2009) and Owen et al (2008) that251 more than half of the earthquake-triggered landslides are located252 along rivers and roads Undercutting of slopes by river erosion and253 human activities such as road construction deforestation terracing254 and agricultural activities are probably the main reasons for these

^255 secondary failures

256 6 Conclusions

257 The Kashmir earthquake generated extensive landsliding and s-258 suring throughout the study area Within the

^2 years after the earth-

259 quake 80 of the sites examined in our study showed very little or no260 change 11 of sites showed a partial vegetation recovery on slopes261 while 9 showed an increase in the landslide areas All those sites that262 showed an increase in landsliding were located along rivers andor263 roads This lack of signicant change might be attributed to drought264 conditions in the area before the earthquake and insufcient rainfall265 after the earthquake despite the heaviest rains since 2000 occurring266 in 2006 However despite the few slope changes at the study sites267 the extensive ssuring still poses a potential hazard in the region as268 the slopes are still susceptible to future landsliding under wetter con-269 ditions Many settlements and major towns like Muzaffarabad and270 Balakot Garhi Dopatta are still at risk to future landsliding and future271 urban planning must account for this long-term potential threat

272The recurrence of an earthquake of the same magnitude in the273region is not very likely in the near future (Bendick et al 2007 Kondo274et al 2008MonaLisa et al 2008) but ongoing landsliding whichwas275initiated by the earthquake still poses a serious threat to life and276property

2777 Q5Uncited reference

278Kamp et al in preparation

279Acknowledgements

280We thank the National Centre of Excellence in Geology University281of Peshawar Pakistan NSF (EAR-0602675) and The University of Mon-282tana for supporting this research Mrs Aisha Khan Major General283Nadeem Ahmed and the Pakistan Army for eld support The Pakistan284Meteorological Department Peshawar ofce for providing rainfall data285GAK thanks the Pakistan Government and the University of Cincinnati286for providing support to undertake a Master of Science degree at the287University of Cincinnati which helped in completing this paper Thanks288to Editor Richard Marston and three anonymous referees for their con-289structive and useful comments on our manuscript

290Appendix A Supplementary data

291Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in292the online version at doi101016jgeomorph200909035

293References

294Anbalagan R Singh B 1996 Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping of295mountainous terrains a case study from Kumaun Himalaya India Engineering296Geology 42 237ndash246297Baig MS 2006 Active faulting and earthquake deformation in HazarandashKashmir298Syntaxis Azad Kashmir northwest Himalaya In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T299(Eds) International Conference on 8 October 2005 Earthquake in Pakistan Its300Implications and Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Islamabad Pakistan301Extended Abstract pp 27ndash28302Bendick R Bilham R Khan MA Khan SF 2007 Slip on an active wedge thrust from303geodetic observations of the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geology 35304267ndash270305Calkins AJ Ofeld WT Abdullah SKM Ali ST 1975 Geology of the southern306Himalaya in Hazara Pakistan and adjacent areas Geological Survey Professional307Paper 716-C US Government Printing Ofce Washington DC 29 pp308Cascini L Bonnard C Corominas J Jibson R Montero-Olarte J 2005 Landslide309hazard and risk zoning for urban planning and development In Hungr O Fell R310Couture R Eberthardt E (Eds) Landslide Risk Management Taylor and Francis311London pp 199ndash235312Crosta GB 2004 Introduction to the special issue on rainfall triggered

^landslides and

313debris ows Engineering Geology 73 191ndash192314Dai EC Lee CF Nagi YY 2002 Landslide risk assessment and management an315overview Engineering Geology 64 65ndash87316District Census Report 1998 Population Census Organization Islamabad Pakistan317Dunning SA Mitchell WA Rosser NJ Petley DN 2007 The Hattian Bala rock318avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir earthquake of3198 October 2005 Engineering Geology 93 130ndash144320ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2006 Annual321Review 2005ndash2006 The Army Press Islamabad 112 pp322ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2007 District323Prole-Muzaffarabad Kamran Printers Islamabad 76 pp324Gupta RP Joshi BC 1990 Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach a case study325from the Ramganga catchment Himalayas Engineering Geology 28 119ndash132326Harp EL Jibson RW 1995 Inventory of landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge327California earthquake US Geological Survey Open File Report pp 95ndash213328Harp EL Jibson RW 1996 Landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge California329earthquake Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86 319ndash332330Harp EL Crone AJ 2006 Landslides Triggered by the October 8 2005 Pakistan331Earthquake and Associated Landslide-dammed Reservoirs US Geological Survey332Open-File Report 2006-1052 Washington DC 10 pp333Hussain A Khan RN 1996 Geological map of Azad Jammu and Kashmir Geological334Survey of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan335Hussain A Mughal N Haq I Latif A 2004 Geological map of the Garhi Habibullah336Area District Mansehra and parts of Muzaffarabad District AJK Geological Survey337of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan338Jayangondaperumal R Thakur VC Suresh N 2008 Liquefaction features of the 2005339MuzaffarabadndashKashmir earthquake and evidence of palaeoearthquakes near340Jammu Kashmir Himalaya Current Science 95 1071ndash1077

Fig 6 Post-earthquake landslide activity at the study sites

6 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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341 Jibson RW Harp EL Michael JA 1998 A method for producing digital probabilistic342 seismic landslide hazard maps an example from the Los Angeles California area343 US Geological Survey Open File Report Boulder Colorado pp 98ndash113344 Jibson RW Crone AJ Harp EL Baum RL Major JJ Pullinger CR Escobar CD345 Marinez M Smith ME 2004b Landslides triggered by the 13 January and 13346 February 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador In Bommer JJ Rose WI Loacutepez DL347 Carr MJ Major JJ (Eds) Natural Hazards in El Salvador Geological Society of348 America Special Paper vol 375 Geological Society of America Boulder Colorado349 pp 69ndash88350 Jibson RW Harp EL Schulz W Keefer DK 2004a Landslides triggered by the 2002351 Denali Fault Alaska earthquake and the inferred nature of the strong shaking352 Earthquake Spectra 20 669ndash691353 Kamp U Growley BJ Khattak GA Owen LA 2008 GIS-based landslide susceptibility354 mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region Geomorphology 101 631ndash642355 Kamp U Owen LA Growley BJ Khattak GA 2009 Back analysis of landslide356 susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake an assessment357 of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps Natural Hazards in pressQ6358 Kamp U Owen LA Parker Hamilton J Halvorson SJ in preparation The 2005359 Kashmir earthquake an assessment of the ad hoc rebuilding effort Environmental360 HazardsQ7361 Keefer DK 1984 Landslides caused by earthquakes Geological Society of America362 Bulletin 95 406ndash421363 Kondo H Nakata T Akhtar SS Wesnousky SG Sugito N Kaneda H Tsutsumi H364 Khan AM Khattak W Kausar AB 2008 Long recurrence interval of faulting365 beyond the 2005 Kashmir earthquake around the northwestern margin of the366 Indo

^-Asian collision zone Geology 36 731ndash734

367 MonaLisa Khwaja AA Jan MQ 2008 The 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake368 preliminary seismological investigations and probabilistic estimation of peak ground369 accelerations Current Science 94 1158ndash1166370 Nath SK 2004 Seismic hazard mapping and microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya371 through GIS integration of site effects and strong ground motion attributes Natural372 Hazards 31 319ndash342373 Owen LA Sharma MC Bigwood R 1995 Mass movement hazard in the Garhwal374 Himalaya the effects of the20October 1991Garhwal earthquakeand the JulyndashAugust

3751992 monsoon season In McGregor DFM Thompson DA (Eds) Geomorphology376and Land Management in a Changing Environment Wiley Chichester pp 69ndash88377Owen LA Kamp U Khattak GA Harp E Keefer DK Bauer M 2008 Landslides378triggered by the October 8 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geomorphology 94 1ndash9379Peiris N Rossetto T Burton P Mahmood S 2006 EEFITMission October 8 2005 Kashmir380Earthquake Published Report The Institution of Structural Engineers London381Sato HP Hasegawa H Fujiwara S Tobita M Koarai M Une H Iwahashi J 2007382Interpretation of landslide distribution triggered by the 2005 Northern Pakistan383earthquake using SPOT 5 imagery Landslides 4 113ndash122384Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P JaboyedoffMJ Breguet A Dubois J Jaubert R385Cheema MA 2007a An interdisciplinary approach to understanding landslides and386risk management a case study from earthquake-affected Kashmir Mountain Forum387Mountain GIS e-Conference January 14ndash25 2008 httpwwwmtnforumorgrsec388sclesNeelum_PAK_landslides_2007pdf389Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P Nessi J Breguet A Dubois J Jaboyedoff MJ390Jaubert R Rietbergen S Klaus R Cheema MA 2007b Disaster Risk Livelihoods and391Natural Barriers Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction A392Case Study from Northern Pakistan The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Pakistan393Programme Final Report Karachi 53 pp394US Geological Survey (USGS) 2006 Magnitude 76 ndash Pakistan ndash earthquake summary395httpearthquakeusgsgoveqcentereqinthenews2005usdyaeusdyaesummary396accessed 21 August 2007397Varnes DJ 1978 Slope movement types and processes In Schuster RL Krizek RJ398(Eds) Landslides Analysis and Control National Academy of Sciences Transpor-399tation Research Board Special Report vol 176 pp 12ndash33400WMO (WorldMeteorological Organization) 2007 Pakistan httpwwwworldweatherorg401047c00901htm accessed 31 August 2007402WMO (World Meteorological Organization) 2008 Pakistan Muzaffarabad climato-403logical information httpwwwworldweatherorg 047c00901htm accessed 23404December 2008405Yeats RS Parsons T Hussain A Yuji Y 2006 Stress changes with the 8 October 2005406Kashmir earthquake lessons for the future In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T (Eds)407International Conferenceon8October 2005Earthquake in Pakistan Its Implicationsamp408Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Extended Abstract pp 16ndash17

409

7GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

Page 5: Location Query / remark in articlewebcentral.uc.edu/eProf/media/attachment/eprofmediafile_761.pdfThe study area located in AJK and the NWFP covers an area of 80 81 ^ > ^ 750 km2, which

UNCO

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TED P

ROOF149 landslides in October 2005

^3 weeks after the earthquake Analysis by

150 Kampet al (2008) also showed that the bedrock lithologywas themost151 important landslide-controlling parameter and most of the landslides152 occurred in highly fractured shale slate clastic sediments limestone153 and dolomite mainly of the Murree and Salkhala Formations Kamp154 et al (2008) noted that most of the landsliding occurred on slopes155 ranging from 25

^to 35

^deg and that one-third of the landslides occurred

156 along rivers and one-fth occurred along roads In conclusion Kamp157 et al (2008) showed that areas around many settlements such as158 Muzaffarabad and Balakot are still ldquohighlyrdquo to ldquovery highlyrdquo susceptible159 to future landsliding Kamp et als (2008) study also supported the160 earlier studies of Kumar (2006)Q3 Sudmeier-Rieux (2007a b) and Owen161 et al (2008) which showed that many landslides occurred along faults162 rivers and roads cuts163 Kamp et al (in press)Q4 undertook pre-earthquake landslide164 mapping using 2001 ASTER data and compared the results with165 2005 ASTER data by Kamp et al (2008) The study by Kamp et al (in166 press) showed that the number of landslides increased from 369 in167 2001 (covering an area of 82 km2) to 2252 in October 2005 (covering168 an area of 611 km2) Kamp et al (in press) assumed that the new169 landslides were triggered by the 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks170 and noted that many of the coseismicpost-seismic landsliding in171 2005 occurred in areas that had been dened as potentially dangerous172 on the 2001 landslide susceptibility map

173 3 Methodology

174 Four weeks after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake Owen et al (2008)175 visited the area and examined 1293 landslides at 174 locations in176 Kaghan Valley in NWFP and the Neelam and Jhelum valleys in AJK This177 included photographing and describing all the active slope failures and178 ssuring at the 174 locations Our study builds on eld photographs179 taken in November 2005 by Owen et al (2008) Sixty-eight of Owen180 et als (2008) sites were selected and re-visited and re-photographed181 in MayJune 2006 June 2007 and August 2007 to assess slope con-182 ditions at each location after the snowmelt and monsoon seasons183 (Figs 1 and 5) This allowed us tomake an assessment of the short-term184 changes that occurred after the October 2005 earthquake A data set of185 four photographs per site was therefore produced to compare landslide186 changes after the earthquake (Data supplement item) Photographs

187were adjusted to the same scale within an accuracy of^plusmn^5 using Corel

188Draw graphic software version 12189For the sites that showedminor changes (lt5 area change) between1902005 and 2007 visual estimates were made to calculate percent changes191in landslide surface area For those locations which showed signicant192landslide activity (gt5 area change) the percent change in surface area

^is

193calculated by on-screen digitization of eld photographs Varnes (1978)194classication was used to describe landslide types

1954 Results

196Previous studies showed that the Kashmir earthquake triggered not197only thousands of landslides but also produced extensive ssures and198cracks making the slopes unstable (Dunning et al 2007 Sato et al 2007199Kamp et al 2008 in press Owen et al 2008) Our study revealed that200between 2005 and 2007

^~^80 of the sites either showed no or very little

201change in slope conditions after the earthquake (supplementary data202Table 1 Fig 6) Vegetation growth is clearly very rapid in this monsoon203climate but only 11 of sites showed notable vegetation recovery on the204slopes Our results also revealed that only 9 of the sites showed an205increase in the surface area of landsliding (Fig 3) These data showed that206all the reactivated landslidingoccurredeitheralong riversor roadsorboth207No correlation between post-earthquake landslide activity and rainfall is208evident and all secondary failures were concentrated along roads andor209rivers (Table 1) Similarly all those sites

^showed an increase in the surface

210area after the 2006 snowmelt season which continued to bemodied by211landsliding after the 2006 and 2007 monsoon seasons

2125 Discussion

213Factors that contribute to slope failure during an earthquake214are generally complex and difcult to assess with condence but in215general a critical magnitude and peak ground acceleration has to be216reached for triggering landslides during an earthquake (Keefer 1984217Harp and Jibson 1995 1996 Jibson et al 1998 Cascini et al 2005) In218the case of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake the total number of reported219coseismic landslides (Sato et al 2007 Kamp et al 2008 Owen et al2202008) was signicantly lower than the number of landslides expected221to be generated by an earthquake of similarmagnitude (Keefer 1984)222although this might be because not all the earthquake-triggered223landslides were recorded particularly the smaller landslides

Fig 4 Monthly precipitation from January 2005 to December 2007 at Balakot (N 34o33^ E 73o21

^ WMO 2008)

Fig 5 Examples of repeat photography at ve different sites (A) Landsliding along Kunhar River in Kaghan valley Initial earthquake^shaking produced very few shallow slope

failures but produced extensive ssures and cracks which resulted in extensive secondary landsliding (B) Landsliding along main MuzaffarabadndashChakoth^i road in Jhelum ValleyQ2

Secondary landsliding occurred along the ssures produced by seismic shaking (C) Rapid growth of vegetation on^almost vertical slope along the Kunhar River in Kaghan valley

More than 70 of the slope is re-covered by vegetation by 2007 (D) and (E) Shallow rockfalls in Kaghan and Neelam valleys respectively No signicant changes occurred after theearthquake J=June A=August

4 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

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5GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

UNCO

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224 Furthermore Owen et al (2008) highlighted that the earthquake-225 generated extensive ssures and cracks throughout the region had the226 potential to cause more landsliding which may increase the number227 of landslides in the coming years228 The available rainfall data from the Pakistan meteorological rain-229 gauge station at Balakot show that 2005 was the driest year and only230 received a total of 1166 mm rainfall compared to 2284 mm in 2006 and231 1212 mm in 2007 (Fig 4) Rainfall during July (597 mm) and August232 2006 (596 mm) however was the heaviest since 2000 with the 6-year233 meanbeing 319 mm for July and 304 mm for August Surprisingly post-234 summer monsoon (2006) repeat photography does not show any235 signicant new landsliding on slopes that were severely disturbed by236 earthquake shaking (Fig 5) We assumed that the ground conditions237 were very dry and that the amount of rainfall was not sufcient enough238 to initiate any new or secondary landslides Similarly more extensive239 landslide activity in the area would have been more if conditions were240 wetter at the time of the earthquake The study area was already241 experiencing drought conditions before the earthquake which may242 have been signicant in minimizing the inuence of pore water pres-243 sures on landsliding In the eld many local inhabitants noted that244 water levels continuously dropped in dug wells and natural springs245 began to dry up over the past few years It is likely that rainfall amounts246 in the study area were not sufcient to exceed the threshold for247 landslide initiation248 Our study shows that most of the secondary landsliding occurred249 on slopes along roads andor rivers (Table 1) which supports the250 observations of Kamp et al (2008 2009) and Owen et al (2008) that251 more than half of the earthquake-triggered landslides are located252 along rivers and roads Undercutting of slopes by river erosion and253 human activities such as road construction deforestation terracing254 and agricultural activities are probably the main reasons for these

^255 secondary failures

256 6 Conclusions

257 The Kashmir earthquake generated extensive landsliding and s-258 suring throughout the study area Within the

^2 years after the earth-

259 quake 80 of the sites examined in our study showed very little or no260 change 11 of sites showed a partial vegetation recovery on slopes261 while 9 showed an increase in the landslide areas All those sites that262 showed an increase in landsliding were located along rivers andor263 roads This lack of signicant change might be attributed to drought264 conditions in the area before the earthquake and insufcient rainfall265 after the earthquake despite the heaviest rains since 2000 occurring266 in 2006 However despite the few slope changes at the study sites267 the extensive ssuring still poses a potential hazard in the region as268 the slopes are still susceptible to future landsliding under wetter con-269 ditions Many settlements and major towns like Muzaffarabad and270 Balakot Garhi Dopatta are still at risk to future landsliding and future271 urban planning must account for this long-term potential threat

272The recurrence of an earthquake of the same magnitude in the273region is not very likely in the near future (Bendick et al 2007 Kondo274et al 2008MonaLisa et al 2008) but ongoing landsliding whichwas275initiated by the earthquake still poses a serious threat to life and276property

2777 Q5Uncited reference

278Kamp et al in preparation

279Acknowledgements

280We thank the National Centre of Excellence in Geology University281of Peshawar Pakistan NSF (EAR-0602675) and The University of Mon-282tana for supporting this research Mrs Aisha Khan Major General283Nadeem Ahmed and the Pakistan Army for eld support The Pakistan284Meteorological Department Peshawar ofce for providing rainfall data285GAK thanks the Pakistan Government and the University of Cincinnati286for providing support to undertake a Master of Science degree at the287University of Cincinnati which helped in completing this paper Thanks288to Editor Richard Marston and three anonymous referees for their con-289structive and useful comments on our manuscript

290Appendix A Supplementary data

291Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in292the online version at doi101016jgeomorph200909035

293References

294Anbalagan R Singh B 1996 Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping of295mountainous terrains a case study from Kumaun Himalaya India Engineering296Geology 42 237ndash246297Baig MS 2006 Active faulting and earthquake deformation in HazarandashKashmir298Syntaxis Azad Kashmir northwest Himalaya In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T299(Eds) International Conference on 8 October 2005 Earthquake in Pakistan Its300Implications and Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Islamabad Pakistan301Extended Abstract pp 27ndash28302Bendick R Bilham R Khan MA Khan SF 2007 Slip on an active wedge thrust from303geodetic observations of the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geology 35304267ndash270305Calkins AJ Ofeld WT Abdullah SKM Ali ST 1975 Geology of the southern306Himalaya in Hazara Pakistan and adjacent areas Geological Survey Professional307Paper 716-C US Government Printing Ofce Washington DC 29 pp308Cascini L Bonnard C Corominas J Jibson R Montero-Olarte J 2005 Landslide309hazard and risk zoning for urban planning and development In Hungr O Fell R310Couture R Eberthardt E (Eds) Landslide Risk Management Taylor and Francis311London pp 199ndash235312Crosta GB 2004 Introduction to the special issue on rainfall triggered

^landslides and

313debris ows Engineering Geology 73 191ndash192314Dai EC Lee CF Nagi YY 2002 Landslide risk assessment and management an315overview Engineering Geology 64 65ndash87316District Census Report 1998 Population Census Organization Islamabad Pakistan317Dunning SA Mitchell WA Rosser NJ Petley DN 2007 The Hattian Bala rock318avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir earthquake of3198 October 2005 Engineering Geology 93 130ndash144320ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2006 Annual321Review 2005ndash2006 The Army Press Islamabad 112 pp322ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2007 District323Prole-Muzaffarabad Kamran Printers Islamabad 76 pp324Gupta RP Joshi BC 1990 Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach a case study325from the Ramganga catchment Himalayas Engineering Geology 28 119ndash132326Harp EL Jibson RW 1995 Inventory of landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge327California earthquake US Geological Survey Open File Report pp 95ndash213328Harp EL Jibson RW 1996 Landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge California329earthquake Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86 319ndash332330Harp EL Crone AJ 2006 Landslides Triggered by the October 8 2005 Pakistan331Earthquake and Associated Landslide-dammed Reservoirs US Geological Survey332Open-File Report 2006-1052 Washington DC 10 pp333Hussain A Khan RN 1996 Geological map of Azad Jammu and Kashmir Geological334Survey of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan335Hussain A Mughal N Haq I Latif A 2004 Geological map of the Garhi Habibullah336Area District Mansehra and parts of Muzaffarabad District AJK Geological Survey337of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan338Jayangondaperumal R Thakur VC Suresh N 2008 Liquefaction features of the 2005339MuzaffarabadndashKashmir earthquake and evidence of palaeoearthquakes near340Jammu Kashmir Himalaya Current Science 95 1071ndash1077

Fig 6 Post-earthquake landslide activity at the study sites

6 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

UNCO

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TED P

ROOF

341 Jibson RW Harp EL Michael JA 1998 A method for producing digital probabilistic342 seismic landslide hazard maps an example from the Los Angeles California area343 US Geological Survey Open File Report Boulder Colorado pp 98ndash113344 Jibson RW Crone AJ Harp EL Baum RL Major JJ Pullinger CR Escobar CD345 Marinez M Smith ME 2004b Landslides triggered by the 13 January and 13346 February 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador In Bommer JJ Rose WI Loacutepez DL347 Carr MJ Major JJ (Eds) Natural Hazards in El Salvador Geological Society of348 America Special Paper vol 375 Geological Society of America Boulder Colorado349 pp 69ndash88350 Jibson RW Harp EL Schulz W Keefer DK 2004a Landslides triggered by the 2002351 Denali Fault Alaska earthquake and the inferred nature of the strong shaking352 Earthquake Spectra 20 669ndash691353 Kamp U Growley BJ Khattak GA Owen LA 2008 GIS-based landslide susceptibility354 mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region Geomorphology 101 631ndash642355 Kamp U Owen LA Growley BJ Khattak GA 2009 Back analysis of landslide356 susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake an assessment357 of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps Natural Hazards in pressQ6358 Kamp U Owen LA Parker Hamilton J Halvorson SJ in preparation The 2005359 Kashmir earthquake an assessment of the ad hoc rebuilding effort Environmental360 HazardsQ7361 Keefer DK 1984 Landslides caused by earthquakes Geological Society of America362 Bulletin 95 406ndash421363 Kondo H Nakata T Akhtar SS Wesnousky SG Sugito N Kaneda H Tsutsumi H364 Khan AM Khattak W Kausar AB 2008 Long recurrence interval of faulting365 beyond the 2005 Kashmir earthquake around the northwestern margin of the366 Indo

^-Asian collision zone Geology 36 731ndash734

367 MonaLisa Khwaja AA Jan MQ 2008 The 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake368 preliminary seismological investigations and probabilistic estimation of peak ground369 accelerations Current Science 94 1158ndash1166370 Nath SK 2004 Seismic hazard mapping and microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya371 through GIS integration of site effects and strong ground motion attributes Natural372 Hazards 31 319ndash342373 Owen LA Sharma MC Bigwood R 1995 Mass movement hazard in the Garhwal374 Himalaya the effects of the20October 1991Garhwal earthquakeand the JulyndashAugust

3751992 monsoon season In McGregor DFM Thompson DA (Eds) Geomorphology376and Land Management in a Changing Environment Wiley Chichester pp 69ndash88377Owen LA Kamp U Khattak GA Harp E Keefer DK Bauer M 2008 Landslides378triggered by the October 8 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geomorphology 94 1ndash9379Peiris N Rossetto T Burton P Mahmood S 2006 EEFITMission October 8 2005 Kashmir380Earthquake Published Report The Institution of Structural Engineers London381Sato HP Hasegawa H Fujiwara S Tobita M Koarai M Une H Iwahashi J 2007382Interpretation of landslide distribution triggered by the 2005 Northern Pakistan383earthquake using SPOT 5 imagery Landslides 4 113ndash122384Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P JaboyedoffMJ Breguet A Dubois J Jaubert R385Cheema MA 2007a An interdisciplinary approach to understanding landslides and386risk management a case study from earthquake-affected Kashmir Mountain Forum387Mountain GIS e-Conference January 14ndash25 2008 httpwwwmtnforumorgrsec388sclesNeelum_PAK_landslides_2007pdf389Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P Nessi J Breguet A Dubois J Jaboyedoff MJ390Jaubert R Rietbergen S Klaus R Cheema MA 2007b Disaster Risk Livelihoods and391Natural Barriers Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction A392Case Study from Northern Pakistan The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Pakistan393Programme Final Report Karachi 53 pp394US Geological Survey (USGS) 2006 Magnitude 76 ndash Pakistan ndash earthquake summary395httpearthquakeusgsgoveqcentereqinthenews2005usdyaeusdyaesummary396accessed 21 August 2007397Varnes DJ 1978 Slope movement types and processes In Schuster RL Krizek RJ398(Eds) Landslides Analysis and Control National Academy of Sciences Transpor-399tation Research Board Special Report vol 176 pp 12ndash33400WMO (WorldMeteorological Organization) 2007 Pakistan httpwwwworldweatherorg401047c00901htm accessed 31 August 2007402WMO (World Meteorological Organization) 2008 Pakistan Muzaffarabad climato-403logical information httpwwwworldweatherorg 047c00901htm accessed 23404December 2008405Yeats RS Parsons T Hussain A Yuji Y 2006 Stress changes with the 8 October 2005406Kashmir earthquake lessons for the future In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T (Eds)407International Conferenceon8October 2005Earthquake in Pakistan Its Implicationsamp408Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Extended Abstract pp 16ndash17

409

7GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

Page 6: Location Query / remark in articlewebcentral.uc.edu/eProf/media/attachment/eprofmediafile_761.pdfThe study area located in AJK and the NWFP covers an area of 80 81 ^ > ^ 750 km2, which

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5GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

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224 Furthermore Owen et al (2008) highlighted that the earthquake-225 generated extensive ssures and cracks throughout the region had the226 potential to cause more landsliding which may increase the number227 of landslides in the coming years228 The available rainfall data from the Pakistan meteorological rain-229 gauge station at Balakot show that 2005 was the driest year and only230 received a total of 1166 mm rainfall compared to 2284 mm in 2006 and231 1212 mm in 2007 (Fig 4) Rainfall during July (597 mm) and August232 2006 (596 mm) however was the heaviest since 2000 with the 6-year233 meanbeing 319 mm for July and 304 mm for August Surprisingly post-234 summer monsoon (2006) repeat photography does not show any235 signicant new landsliding on slopes that were severely disturbed by236 earthquake shaking (Fig 5) We assumed that the ground conditions237 were very dry and that the amount of rainfall was not sufcient enough238 to initiate any new or secondary landslides Similarly more extensive239 landslide activity in the area would have been more if conditions were240 wetter at the time of the earthquake The study area was already241 experiencing drought conditions before the earthquake which may242 have been signicant in minimizing the inuence of pore water pres-243 sures on landsliding In the eld many local inhabitants noted that244 water levels continuously dropped in dug wells and natural springs245 began to dry up over the past few years It is likely that rainfall amounts246 in the study area were not sufcient to exceed the threshold for247 landslide initiation248 Our study shows that most of the secondary landsliding occurred249 on slopes along roads andor rivers (Table 1) which supports the250 observations of Kamp et al (2008 2009) and Owen et al (2008) that251 more than half of the earthquake-triggered landslides are located252 along rivers and roads Undercutting of slopes by river erosion and253 human activities such as road construction deforestation terracing254 and agricultural activities are probably the main reasons for these

^255 secondary failures

256 6 Conclusions

257 The Kashmir earthquake generated extensive landsliding and s-258 suring throughout the study area Within the

^2 years after the earth-

259 quake 80 of the sites examined in our study showed very little or no260 change 11 of sites showed a partial vegetation recovery on slopes261 while 9 showed an increase in the landslide areas All those sites that262 showed an increase in landsliding were located along rivers andor263 roads This lack of signicant change might be attributed to drought264 conditions in the area before the earthquake and insufcient rainfall265 after the earthquake despite the heaviest rains since 2000 occurring266 in 2006 However despite the few slope changes at the study sites267 the extensive ssuring still poses a potential hazard in the region as268 the slopes are still susceptible to future landsliding under wetter con-269 ditions Many settlements and major towns like Muzaffarabad and270 Balakot Garhi Dopatta are still at risk to future landsliding and future271 urban planning must account for this long-term potential threat

272The recurrence of an earthquake of the same magnitude in the273region is not very likely in the near future (Bendick et al 2007 Kondo274et al 2008MonaLisa et al 2008) but ongoing landsliding whichwas275initiated by the earthquake still poses a serious threat to life and276property

2777 Q5Uncited reference

278Kamp et al in preparation

279Acknowledgements

280We thank the National Centre of Excellence in Geology University281of Peshawar Pakistan NSF (EAR-0602675) and The University of Mon-282tana for supporting this research Mrs Aisha Khan Major General283Nadeem Ahmed and the Pakistan Army for eld support The Pakistan284Meteorological Department Peshawar ofce for providing rainfall data285GAK thanks the Pakistan Government and the University of Cincinnati286for providing support to undertake a Master of Science degree at the287University of Cincinnati which helped in completing this paper Thanks288to Editor Richard Marston and three anonymous referees for their con-289structive and useful comments on our manuscript

290Appendix A Supplementary data

291Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in292the online version at doi101016jgeomorph200909035

293References

294Anbalagan R Singh B 1996 Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping of295mountainous terrains a case study from Kumaun Himalaya India Engineering296Geology 42 237ndash246297Baig MS 2006 Active faulting and earthquake deformation in HazarandashKashmir298Syntaxis Azad Kashmir northwest Himalaya In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T299(Eds) International Conference on 8 October 2005 Earthquake in Pakistan Its300Implications and Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Islamabad Pakistan301Extended Abstract pp 27ndash28302Bendick R Bilham R Khan MA Khan SF 2007 Slip on an active wedge thrust from303geodetic observations of the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geology 35304267ndash270305Calkins AJ Ofeld WT Abdullah SKM Ali ST 1975 Geology of the southern306Himalaya in Hazara Pakistan and adjacent areas Geological Survey Professional307Paper 716-C US Government Printing Ofce Washington DC 29 pp308Cascini L Bonnard C Corominas J Jibson R Montero-Olarte J 2005 Landslide309hazard and risk zoning for urban planning and development In Hungr O Fell R310Couture R Eberthardt E (Eds) Landslide Risk Management Taylor and Francis311London pp 199ndash235312Crosta GB 2004 Introduction to the special issue on rainfall triggered

^landslides and

313debris ows Engineering Geology 73 191ndash192314Dai EC Lee CF Nagi YY 2002 Landslide risk assessment and management an315overview Engineering Geology 64 65ndash87316District Census Report 1998 Population Census Organization Islamabad Pakistan317Dunning SA Mitchell WA Rosser NJ Petley DN 2007 The Hattian Bala rock318avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir earthquake of3198 October 2005 Engineering Geology 93 130ndash144320ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2006 Annual321Review 2005ndash2006 The Army Press Islamabad 112 pp322ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2007 District323Prole-Muzaffarabad Kamran Printers Islamabad 76 pp324Gupta RP Joshi BC 1990 Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach a case study325from the Ramganga catchment Himalayas Engineering Geology 28 119ndash132326Harp EL Jibson RW 1995 Inventory of landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge327California earthquake US Geological Survey Open File Report pp 95ndash213328Harp EL Jibson RW 1996 Landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge California329earthquake Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86 319ndash332330Harp EL Crone AJ 2006 Landslides Triggered by the October 8 2005 Pakistan331Earthquake and Associated Landslide-dammed Reservoirs US Geological Survey332Open-File Report 2006-1052 Washington DC 10 pp333Hussain A Khan RN 1996 Geological map of Azad Jammu and Kashmir Geological334Survey of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan335Hussain A Mughal N Haq I Latif A 2004 Geological map of the Garhi Habibullah336Area District Mansehra and parts of Muzaffarabad District AJK Geological Survey337of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan338Jayangondaperumal R Thakur VC Suresh N 2008 Liquefaction features of the 2005339MuzaffarabadndashKashmir earthquake and evidence of palaeoearthquakes near340Jammu Kashmir Himalaya Current Science 95 1071ndash1077

Fig 6 Post-earthquake landslide activity at the study sites

6 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

UNCO

RREC

TED P

ROOF

341 Jibson RW Harp EL Michael JA 1998 A method for producing digital probabilistic342 seismic landslide hazard maps an example from the Los Angeles California area343 US Geological Survey Open File Report Boulder Colorado pp 98ndash113344 Jibson RW Crone AJ Harp EL Baum RL Major JJ Pullinger CR Escobar CD345 Marinez M Smith ME 2004b Landslides triggered by the 13 January and 13346 February 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador In Bommer JJ Rose WI Loacutepez DL347 Carr MJ Major JJ (Eds) Natural Hazards in El Salvador Geological Society of348 America Special Paper vol 375 Geological Society of America Boulder Colorado349 pp 69ndash88350 Jibson RW Harp EL Schulz W Keefer DK 2004a Landslides triggered by the 2002351 Denali Fault Alaska earthquake and the inferred nature of the strong shaking352 Earthquake Spectra 20 669ndash691353 Kamp U Growley BJ Khattak GA Owen LA 2008 GIS-based landslide susceptibility354 mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region Geomorphology 101 631ndash642355 Kamp U Owen LA Growley BJ Khattak GA 2009 Back analysis of landslide356 susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake an assessment357 of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps Natural Hazards in pressQ6358 Kamp U Owen LA Parker Hamilton J Halvorson SJ in preparation The 2005359 Kashmir earthquake an assessment of the ad hoc rebuilding effort Environmental360 HazardsQ7361 Keefer DK 1984 Landslides caused by earthquakes Geological Society of America362 Bulletin 95 406ndash421363 Kondo H Nakata T Akhtar SS Wesnousky SG Sugito N Kaneda H Tsutsumi H364 Khan AM Khattak W Kausar AB 2008 Long recurrence interval of faulting365 beyond the 2005 Kashmir earthquake around the northwestern margin of the366 Indo

^-Asian collision zone Geology 36 731ndash734

367 MonaLisa Khwaja AA Jan MQ 2008 The 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake368 preliminary seismological investigations and probabilistic estimation of peak ground369 accelerations Current Science 94 1158ndash1166370 Nath SK 2004 Seismic hazard mapping and microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya371 through GIS integration of site effects and strong ground motion attributes Natural372 Hazards 31 319ndash342373 Owen LA Sharma MC Bigwood R 1995 Mass movement hazard in the Garhwal374 Himalaya the effects of the20October 1991Garhwal earthquakeand the JulyndashAugust

3751992 monsoon season In McGregor DFM Thompson DA (Eds) Geomorphology376and Land Management in a Changing Environment Wiley Chichester pp 69ndash88377Owen LA Kamp U Khattak GA Harp E Keefer DK Bauer M 2008 Landslides378triggered by the October 8 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geomorphology 94 1ndash9379Peiris N Rossetto T Burton P Mahmood S 2006 EEFITMission October 8 2005 Kashmir380Earthquake Published Report The Institution of Structural Engineers London381Sato HP Hasegawa H Fujiwara S Tobita M Koarai M Une H Iwahashi J 2007382Interpretation of landslide distribution triggered by the 2005 Northern Pakistan383earthquake using SPOT 5 imagery Landslides 4 113ndash122384Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P JaboyedoffMJ Breguet A Dubois J Jaubert R385Cheema MA 2007a An interdisciplinary approach to understanding landslides and386risk management a case study from earthquake-affected Kashmir Mountain Forum387Mountain GIS e-Conference January 14ndash25 2008 httpwwwmtnforumorgrsec388sclesNeelum_PAK_landslides_2007pdf389Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P Nessi J Breguet A Dubois J Jaboyedoff MJ390Jaubert R Rietbergen S Klaus R Cheema MA 2007b Disaster Risk Livelihoods and391Natural Barriers Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction A392Case Study from Northern Pakistan The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Pakistan393Programme Final Report Karachi 53 pp394US Geological Survey (USGS) 2006 Magnitude 76 ndash Pakistan ndash earthquake summary395httpearthquakeusgsgoveqcentereqinthenews2005usdyaeusdyaesummary396accessed 21 August 2007397Varnes DJ 1978 Slope movement types and processes In Schuster RL Krizek RJ398(Eds) Landslides Analysis and Control National Academy of Sciences Transpor-399tation Research Board Special Report vol 176 pp 12ndash33400WMO (WorldMeteorological Organization) 2007 Pakistan httpwwwworldweatherorg401047c00901htm accessed 31 August 2007402WMO (World Meteorological Organization) 2008 Pakistan Muzaffarabad climato-403logical information httpwwwworldweatherorg 047c00901htm accessed 23404December 2008405Yeats RS Parsons T Hussain A Yuji Y 2006 Stress changes with the 8 October 2005406Kashmir earthquake lessons for the future In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T (Eds)407International Conferenceon8October 2005Earthquake in Pakistan Its Implicationsamp408Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Extended Abstract pp 16ndash17

409

7GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

Page 7: Location Query / remark in articlewebcentral.uc.edu/eProf/media/attachment/eprofmediafile_761.pdfThe study area located in AJK and the NWFP covers an area of 80 81 ^ > ^ 750 km2, which

UNCO

RREC

TED P

ROOF

224 Furthermore Owen et al (2008) highlighted that the earthquake-225 generated extensive ssures and cracks throughout the region had the226 potential to cause more landsliding which may increase the number227 of landslides in the coming years228 The available rainfall data from the Pakistan meteorological rain-229 gauge station at Balakot show that 2005 was the driest year and only230 received a total of 1166 mm rainfall compared to 2284 mm in 2006 and231 1212 mm in 2007 (Fig 4) Rainfall during July (597 mm) and August232 2006 (596 mm) however was the heaviest since 2000 with the 6-year233 meanbeing 319 mm for July and 304 mm for August Surprisingly post-234 summer monsoon (2006) repeat photography does not show any235 signicant new landsliding on slopes that were severely disturbed by236 earthquake shaking (Fig 5) We assumed that the ground conditions237 were very dry and that the amount of rainfall was not sufcient enough238 to initiate any new or secondary landslides Similarly more extensive239 landslide activity in the area would have been more if conditions were240 wetter at the time of the earthquake The study area was already241 experiencing drought conditions before the earthquake which may242 have been signicant in minimizing the inuence of pore water pres-243 sures on landsliding In the eld many local inhabitants noted that244 water levels continuously dropped in dug wells and natural springs245 began to dry up over the past few years It is likely that rainfall amounts246 in the study area were not sufcient to exceed the threshold for247 landslide initiation248 Our study shows that most of the secondary landsliding occurred249 on slopes along roads andor rivers (Table 1) which supports the250 observations of Kamp et al (2008 2009) and Owen et al (2008) that251 more than half of the earthquake-triggered landslides are located252 along rivers and roads Undercutting of slopes by river erosion and253 human activities such as road construction deforestation terracing254 and agricultural activities are probably the main reasons for these

^255 secondary failures

256 6 Conclusions

257 The Kashmir earthquake generated extensive landsliding and s-258 suring throughout the study area Within the

^2 years after the earth-

259 quake 80 of the sites examined in our study showed very little or no260 change 11 of sites showed a partial vegetation recovery on slopes261 while 9 showed an increase in the landslide areas All those sites that262 showed an increase in landsliding were located along rivers andor263 roads This lack of signicant change might be attributed to drought264 conditions in the area before the earthquake and insufcient rainfall265 after the earthquake despite the heaviest rains since 2000 occurring266 in 2006 However despite the few slope changes at the study sites267 the extensive ssuring still poses a potential hazard in the region as268 the slopes are still susceptible to future landsliding under wetter con-269 ditions Many settlements and major towns like Muzaffarabad and270 Balakot Garhi Dopatta are still at risk to future landsliding and future271 urban planning must account for this long-term potential threat

272The recurrence of an earthquake of the same magnitude in the273region is not very likely in the near future (Bendick et al 2007 Kondo274et al 2008MonaLisa et al 2008) but ongoing landsliding whichwas275initiated by the earthquake still poses a serious threat to life and276property

2777 Q5Uncited reference

278Kamp et al in preparation

279Acknowledgements

280We thank the National Centre of Excellence in Geology University281of Peshawar Pakistan NSF (EAR-0602675) and The University of Mon-282tana for supporting this research Mrs Aisha Khan Major General283Nadeem Ahmed and the Pakistan Army for eld support The Pakistan284Meteorological Department Peshawar ofce for providing rainfall data285GAK thanks the Pakistan Government and the University of Cincinnati286for providing support to undertake a Master of Science degree at the287University of Cincinnati which helped in completing this paper Thanks288to Editor Richard Marston and three anonymous referees for their con-289structive and useful comments on our manuscript

290Appendix A Supplementary data

291Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in292the online version at doi101016jgeomorph200909035

293References

294Anbalagan R Singh B 1996 Landslide hazard and risk assessment mapping of295mountainous terrains a case study from Kumaun Himalaya India Engineering296Geology 42 237ndash246297Baig MS 2006 Active faulting and earthquake deformation in HazarandashKashmir298Syntaxis Azad Kashmir northwest Himalaya In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T299(Eds) International Conference on 8 October 2005 Earthquake in Pakistan Its300Implications and Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Islamabad Pakistan301Extended Abstract pp 27ndash28302Bendick R Bilham R Khan MA Khan SF 2007 Slip on an active wedge thrust from303geodetic observations of the 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geology 35304267ndash270305Calkins AJ Ofeld WT Abdullah SKM Ali ST 1975 Geology of the southern306Himalaya in Hazara Pakistan and adjacent areas Geological Survey Professional307Paper 716-C US Government Printing Ofce Washington DC 29 pp308Cascini L Bonnard C Corominas J Jibson R Montero-Olarte J 2005 Landslide309hazard and risk zoning for urban planning and development In Hungr O Fell R310Couture R Eberthardt E (Eds) Landslide Risk Management Taylor and Francis311London pp 199ndash235312Crosta GB 2004 Introduction to the special issue on rainfall triggered

^landslides and

313debris ows Engineering Geology 73 191ndash192314Dai EC Lee CF Nagi YY 2002 Landslide risk assessment and management an315overview Engineering Geology 64 65ndash87316District Census Report 1998 Population Census Organization Islamabad Pakistan317Dunning SA Mitchell WA Rosser NJ Petley DN 2007 The Hattian Bala rock318avalanche and associated landslides triggered by the Kashmir earthquake of3198 October 2005 Engineering Geology 93 130ndash144320ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2006 Annual321Review 2005ndash2006 The Army Press Islamabad 112 pp322ERRA (Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority) Pakistan 2007 District323Prole-Muzaffarabad Kamran Printers Islamabad 76 pp324Gupta RP Joshi BC 1990 Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach a case study325from the Ramganga catchment Himalayas Engineering Geology 28 119ndash132326Harp EL Jibson RW 1995 Inventory of landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge327California earthquake US Geological Survey Open File Report pp 95ndash213328Harp EL Jibson RW 1996 Landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge California329earthquake Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86 319ndash332330Harp EL Crone AJ 2006 Landslides Triggered by the October 8 2005 Pakistan331Earthquake and Associated Landslide-dammed Reservoirs US Geological Survey332Open-File Report 2006-1052 Washington DC 10 pp333Hussain A Khan RN 1996 Geological map of Azad Jammu and Kashmir Geological334Survey of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan335Hussain A Mughal N Haq I Latif A 2004 Geological map of the Garhi Habibullah336Area District Mansehra and parts of Muzaffarabad District AJK Geological Survey337of Pakistan Geological Map Series Islamabad Pakistan338Jayangondaperumal R Thakur VC Suresh N 2008 Liquefaction features of the 2005339MuzaffarabadndashKashmir earthquake and evidence of palaeoearthquakes near340Jammu Kashmir Himalaya Current Science 95 1071ndash1077

Fig 6 Post-earthquake landslide activity at the study sites

6 GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

UNCO

RREC

TED P

ROOF

341 Jibson RW Harp EL Michael JA 1998 A method for producing digital probabilistic342 seismic landslide hazard maps an example from the Los Angeles California area343 US Geological Survey Open File Report Boulder Colorado pp 98ndash113344 Jibson RW Crone AJ Harp EL Baum RL Major JJ Pullinger CR Escobar CD345 Marinez M Smith ME 2004b Landslides triggered by the 13 January and 13346 February 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador In Bommer JJ Rose WI Loacutepez DL347 Carr MJ Major JJ (Eds) Natural Hazards in El Salvador Geological Society of348 America Special Paper vol 375 Geological Society of America Boulder Colorado349 pp 69ndash88350 Jibson RW Harp EL Schulz W Keefer DK 2004a Landslides triggered by the 2002351 Denali Fault Alaska earthquake and the inferred nature of the strong shaking352 Earthquake Spectra 20 669ndash691353 Kamp U Growley BJ Khattak GA Owen LA 2008 GIS-based landslide susceptibility354 mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region Geomorphology 101 631ndash642355 Kamp U Owen LA Growley BJ Khattak GA 2009 Back analysis of landslide356 susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake an assessment357 of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps Natural Hazards in pressQ6358 Kamp U Owen LA Parker Hamilton J Halvorson SJ in preparation The 2005359 Kashmir earthquake an assessment of the ad hoc rebuilding effort Environmental360 HazardsQ7361 Keefer DK 1984 Landslides caused by earthquakes Geological Society of America362 Bulletin 95 406ndash421363 Kondo H Nakata T Akhtar SS Wesnousky SG Sugito N Kaneda H Tsutsumi H364 Khan AM Khattak W Kausar AB 2008 Long recurrence interval of faulting365 beyond the 2005 Kashmir earthquake around the northwestern margin of the366 Indo

^-Asian collision zone Geology 36 731ndash734

367 MonaLisa Khwaja AA Jan MQ 2008 The 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake368 preliminary seismological investigations and probabilistic estimation of peak ground369 accelerations Current Science 94 1158ndash1166370 Nath SK 2004 Seismic hazard mapping and microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya371 through GIS integration of site effects and strong ground motion attributes Natural372 Hazards 31 319ndash342373 Owen LA Sharma MC Bigwood R 1995 Mass movement hazard in the Garhwal374 Himalaya the effects of the20October 1991Garhwal earthquakeand the JulyndashAugust

3751992 monsoon season In McGregor DFM Thompson DA (Eds) Geomorphology376and Land Management in a Changing Environment Wiley Chichester pp 69ndash88377Owen LA Kamp U Khattak GA Harp E Keefer DK Bauer M 2008 Landslides378triggered by the October 8 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geomorphology 94 1ndash9379Peiris N Rossetto T Burton P Mahmood S 2006 EEFITMission October 8 2005 Kashmir380Earthquake Published Report The Institution of Structural Engineers London381Sato HP Hasegawa H Fujiwara S Tobita M Koarai M Une H Iwahashi J 2007382Interpretation of landslide distribution triggered by the 2005 Northern Pakistan383earthquake using SPOT 5 imagery Landslides 4 113ndash122384Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P JaboyedoffMJ Breguet A Dubois J Jaubert R385Cheema MA 2007a An interdisciplinary approach to understanding landslides and386risk management a case study from earthquake-affected Kashmir Mountain Forum387Mountain GIS e-Conference January 14ndash25 2008 httpwwwmtnforumorgrsec388sclesNeelum_PAK_landslides_2007pdf389Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P Nessi J Breguet A Dubois J Jaboyedoff MJ390Jaubert R Rietbergen S Klaus R Cheema MA 2007b Disaster Risk Livelihoods and391Natural Barriers Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction A392Case Study from Northern Pakistan The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Pakistan393Programme Final Report Karachi 53 pp394US Geological Survey (USGS) 2006 Magnitude 76 ndash Pakistan ndash earthquake summary395httpearthquakeusgsgoveqcentereqinthenews2005usdyaeusdyaesummary396accessed 21 August 2007397Varnes DJ 1978 Slope movement types and processes In Schuster RL Krizek RJ398(Eds) Landslides Analysis and Control National Academy of Sciences Transpor-399tation Research Board Special Report vol 176 pp 12ndash33400WMO (WorldMeteorological Organization) 2007 Pakistan httpwwwworldweatherorg401047c00901htm accessed 31 August 2007402WMO (World Meteorological Organization) 2008 Pakistan Muzaffarabad climato-403logical information httpwwwworldweatherorg 047c00901htm accessed 23404December 2008405Yeats RS Parsons T Hussain A Yuji Y 2006 Stress changes with the 8 October 2005406Kashmir earthquake lessons for the future In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T (Eds)407International Conferenceon8October 2005Earthquake in Pakistan Its Implicationsamp408Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Extended Abstract pp 16ndash17

409

7GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035

Page 8: Location Query / remark in articlewebcentral.uc.edu/eProf/media/attachment/eprofmediafile_761.pdfThe study area located in AJK and the NWFP covers an area of 80 81 ^ > ^ 750 km2, which

UNCO

RREC

TED P

ROOF

341 Jibson RW Harp EL Michael JA 1998 A method for producing digital probabilistic342 seismic landslide hazard maps an example from the Los Angeles California area343 US Geological Survey Open File Report Boulder Colorado pp 98ndash113344 Jibson RW Crone AJ Harp EL Baum RL Major JJ Pullinger CR Escobar CD345 Marinez M Smith ME 2004b Landslides triggered by the 13 January and 13346 February 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador In Bommer JJ Rose WI Loacutepez DL347 Carr MJ Major JJ (Eds) Natural Hazards in El Salvador Geological Society of348 America Special Paper vol 375 Geological Society of America Boulder Colorado349 pp 69ndash88350 Jibson RW Harp EL Schulz W Keefer DK 2004a Landslides triggered by the 2002351 Denali Fault Alaska earthquake and the inferred nature of the strong shaking352 Earthquake Spectra 20 669ndash691353 Kamp U Growley BJ Khattak GA Owen LA 2008 GIS-based landslide susceptibility354 mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake region Geomorphology 101 631ndash642355 Kamp U Owen LA Growley BJ Khattak GA 2009 Back analysis of landslide356 susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake an assessment357 of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps Natural Hazards in pressQ6358 Kamp U Owen LA Parker Hamilton J Halvorson SJ in preparation The 2005359 Kashmir earthquake an assessment of the ad hoc rebuilding effort Environmental360 HazardsQ7361 Keefer DK 1984 Landslides caused by earthquakes Geological Society of America362 Bulletin 95 406ndash421363 Kondo H Nakata T Akhtar SS Wesnousky SG Sugito N Kaneda H Tsutsumi H364 Khan AM Khattak W Kausar AB 2008 Long recurrence interval of faulting365 beyond the 2005 Kashmir earthquake around the northwestern margin of the366 Indo

^-Asian collision zone Geology 36 731ndash734

367 MonaLisa Khwaja AA Jan MQ 2008 The 8 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake368 preliminary seismological investigations and probabilistic estimation of peak ground369 accelerations Current Science 94 1158ndash1166370 Nath SK 2004 Seismic hazard mapping and microzonation in the Sikkim Himalaya371 through GIS integration of site effects and strong ground motion attributes Natural372 Hazards 31 319ndash342373 Owen LA Sharma MC Bigwood R 1995 Mass movement hazard in the Garhwal374 Himalaya the effects of the20October 1991Garhwal earthquakeand the JulyndashAugust

3751992 monsoon season In McGregor DFM Thompson DA (Eds) Geomorphology376and Land Management in a Changing Environment Wiley Chichester pp 69ndash88377Owen LA Kamp U Khattak GA Harp E Keefer DK Bauer M 2008 Landslides378triggered by the October 8 2005 Kashmir earthquake Geomorphology 94 1ndash9379Peiris N Rossetto T Burton P Mahmood S 2006 EEFITMission October 8 2005 Kashmir380Earthquake Published Report The Institution of Structural Engineers London381Sato HP Hasegawa H Fujiwara S Tobita M Koarai M Une H Iwahashi J 2007382Interpretation of landslide distribution triggered by the 2005 Northern Pakistan383earthquake using SPOT 5 imagery Landslides 4 113ndash122384Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P JaboyedoffMJ Breguet A Dubois J Jaubert R385Cheema MA 2007a An interdisciplinary approach to understanding landslides and386risk management a case study from earthquake-affected Kashmir Mountain Forum387Mountain GIS e-Conference January 14ndash25 2008 httpwwwmtnforumorgrsec388sclesNeelum_PAK_landslides_2007pdf389Sudmeier-Rieux K Qureshi RA Peduzzi P Nessi J Breguet A Dubois J Jaboyedoff MJ390Jaubert R Rietbergen S Klaus R Cheema MA 2007b Disaster Risk Livelihoods and391Natural Barriers Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction A392Case Study from Northern Pakistan The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Pakistan393Programme Final Report Karachi 53 pp394US Geological Survey (USGS) 2006 Magnitude 76 ndash Pakistan ndash earthquake summary395httpearthquakeusgsgoveqcentereqinthenews2005usdyaeusdyaesummary396accessed 21 August 2007397Varnes DJ 1978 Slope movement types and processes In Schuster RL Krizek RJ398(Eds) Landslides Analysis and Control National Academy of Sciences Transpor-399tation Research Board Special Report vol 176 pp 12ndash33400WMO (WorldMeteorological Organization) 2007 Pakistan httpwwwworldweatherorg401047c00901htm accessed 31 August 2007402WMO (World Meteorological Organization) 2008 Pakistan Muzaffarabad climato-403logical information httpwwwworldweatherorg 047c00901htm accessed 23404December 2008405Yeats RS Parsons T Hussain A Yuji Y 2006 Stress changes with the 8 October 2005406Kashmir earthquake lessons for the future In Kausar AB Karim T Kham T (Eds)407International Conferenceon8October 2005Earthquake in Pakistan Its Implicationsamp408Hazard Mitigation January 18ndash19 2006 Extended Abstract pp 16ndash17

409

7GA Khattak et al Geomorphology xxx (2009) xxxndashxxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Please cite this article as Khattak GA et al Evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides in the Kashmir Himalaya northern PakistanGeomorphology (2009) doi101016jgeomorph200909035