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7/31/2019 Local Volatility Models- Ankirchner
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Option PricingChapter 12 - Local volatility models -
Stefan Ankirchner
University of Bonn
Stefan Ankirchner Option Pricing 1
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Agenda
The volatility surface
Local volatility
Dupires formulaPractical note: how to calibrate the loc. volatility function
Further reading:
Chapter 1 in J. Gatheral: The volatility surface, 2006.
B. Dupire: Pricing with a smile. Risk 7, 1994.
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Implied vola
Implied vola varies with
different strikes
different maturities
Recall the volatility smile:
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Volatility surface
Volatility surface = graph of the the implied volatility as a
function of t2m and moneyness
Data: Exxon Mobile call prices, CBO on 5/12/2010.
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L l l ili d i i d i i
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Local volatility and transition densitiesProof of Dupires formula
Definition of local volatility
One way to make model prices consistent with market prices for
Plain Vanilla Options is to assume that the volatility is a functionof time and the underlying price:
dSt = rStdt + St(t,St)dWQt . (1)
Definition: the mapping (t, x) (t, x) is called local volatilityfunction.
We will see that
European call / put prices uniquely determine the local
volatility function,our pricing PDEs for American and exotic options remainalmost the same: only the constant vola has to be replacedwith the local volatility function.
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L l l tilit d t iti d iti
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Local volatility and transition densitiesProof of Dupires formula
Local volatility is determined by European Call Prices
Suppose that the market call prices C(T,K) are known for allpossible expiration dates T > 0 and strike prices K 0. Then thelocal volatility function is given by
(T,K) =
2 CT + rKCKK2
2CK2
(2)
Equation (2) is called Dupires formula. For the proof we use thetransition density of the price process St.
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Local volatility and transition densities
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Local volatility and transition densitiesProof of Dupires formula
Transition probabilities
Let (0, x; T, y) be the probability density of ST at y conditionalto S0 = x. This means that for any nice B R
P0,x(ST
B) = B
(0, x; T, y)dy.
Definition: (0, x; T, y) is called transition density of the processSt.
Notation: In the following we fix the initial condition (0, x) andsimply write (T, y) = (0, x; T, y).
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Local volatility and transition densities
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Local volatility and transition densitiesProof of Dupires formula
Kolmogorov forward equation
Theorem (Kolmogorov forward equation)
Suppose that St satisfies
dSt = rStdt + St(t,St)dWQt , S0 = x.
Then the transistion density(T, y) of St satisfies the PDE
T(T, y) =
y(ry(T, y)) +
1
2
2
y2
y22(T, y)(T, y)
.
Remark: The Kolmogorov forward equation is sometimes alsocalled Fokker-Planck equation.
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Local volatility and transition densities
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Local volatility and transition densitiesProof of Dupires formula
Option prices
The price of a call option expiring at T and struck at K satisfies
C(T, K) = erTEQ
(ST K)+
= erTR
(y K)+(T, y)dy
= erT
K
(y K)(T, y)dy.
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Local volatility and transition densities
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Local volatility and transition densitiesProof of Dupires formula
Partial derivatives
C(T,K) = erT
K
(y K)(T, y)dy
Observe that
TC(T,K) = rC(T, K)+erT
K
(y K) T
(T, y)dy(3)
KC(T,K) = erT
K
(T, y)dy (4)
2
K2C(T,K) = erT(T, K) (5)
Proof.
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Local volatility and transition densities
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yProof of Dupires formula
Proof of Dupires formula
With the Kolmogorov forward equation we get
TC(T,K)
= rC(T,K) + erT
K (y K)
T(T, y)dy
= rC(T,K) erT
K
(y K)
y(ry(T, y))
1
2
2
y2
y
2
2
(T, y)(T, y)
dy (6)
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Local volatility and transition densities
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yProof of Dupires formula
Proof of Dupires formula contd
Suppose that
A1) limy (y K) y
y22(T, y)(T, y)
= 0,
A2) limy y22(T, y)(T, y)
= 0,
A3) limy (y K)ry(T, y) = 0.Then we can show
Dupires formula: (T,K) =
2
CT
+rKCK
K2 2C
K2
Proof.
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Local volatility for pricing
Question: How to price American or exotic options that are notactively traded?
Derive the local volatility function from standard European
options,
use the local vola function in the pricing PDE for theAmerican or exotic option considered,
and solve the PDE numerically.
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Example: Pricing D&O call with a local volatility model
Assume that
dSt = rStdt + St(t,St)dWQt , S0 = x.
and that (t, x) has been calibrated from market prices ofstandard calls or puts.Let v(t, x) be the time t D&O call value under the assumption
that it has not been knocked out before t and that St = x. Thenv(t, x) satisfies the Black-Scholes PDE
vt(t, x) + rxvx(t, x) +1
22(t, x)x2vxx(t, x) rv(t, x) = 0,
with boundary conditions
v(t, L) = 0, 0 t T,v(T, x) = (x K)+, x > L.
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time-space parameterization of the local vola functionL l l f BS i li d l
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Local vola from BS implied vola
How to find the local vola function?
Dupires formula requires market prices for all strikes andmaturities!In reality we have market prices for only a finite number of Plain
Vanilla Calls.
Idea: Parameterize the local vola function and choose theparameters such that the model prices for European calls & putsare as close as possible to the real market prices.
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time-space parameterization of the local vola functionL l l f BS i li d l
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Local vola from BS implied vola
A simple time-space parameterization
A simple parameterization of the local vola function is given by
(t, y) = a0 + a1y + a2y2 + a3t + a4t
2 + a5ty
Let
T1 Tm be the maturities of traded calls. Ki,1, . . . , Ki,n(i) strikes of traded calls expiring at Ti,
1 i m. C(Ti,Ki,j) = market price of the traded call with expiration
Ti and strike Ki,j.
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time-space parameterization of the local vola functionLocal vola from BS implied vola
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Local vola from BS implied vola
A simple time-space parameterization contd
Assume that the local vola function satisfies
(t, y) = a0 + a1y + a2y2 + a3t + a4t2 + a5ty.
For a given set of parameters (a0, . . . , a5) one can calculate themodel call prices
Ci,j = erTiKi,j
(y Ki,j)(0, x; Ti, y)dy.
for all 1 i m and 1 j n(i).The quadratic distance to the market prices is given by
error(a0, a1, a2, a3, a4, a5) =mi=1
n(i)j=1
(C(Ti,Ki,j) Ci,j)2
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time-space parameterization of the local vola functionLocal vola from BS implied vola
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Local vola from BS implied vola
A simple time-space parameterization contd
With a search algorithm one can find (a0, . . . , a
5) such that
error(a0, . . . , a
5) min(a0,...,a5)
error(a0, . . . , a5).
The local volatility function is then approximately given by
(t, y) = a0 + a
1y + a
2y2 + a3t + a
4t2 + a5ty.
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time-space parameterization of the local vola functionLocal vola from BS implied vola
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Local vola from BS implied vola
BS implied vola and local volatility
Notation: BS(T,K) = BS implied vola for a call with strike K
and exp. date TNote that the market call price C(T,K) satisfies
C(T,K) = BS call(S0,K,T, BS(T, K), r).
We will show that the local volatility function (T,K) is uniquelydetermined by the BS implied volatility function BS(T,K).Therefore: instead of parameterizing and calibrating the local volafunction directly, one can proceed as follows:
Parameterize the BS implied vola function
Calibrate the BS implied vola function to market prices
Calculate the local vola function from the calibrated BSimplied vola function.
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time-space parameterization of the local vola functionLocal vola from BS implied vola
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Local vola from BS implied vola
Linking local vola and BS implied vola
Some new variables:log moneyness y = log
K
erTS0
implied total variance w(T, y) = T2BS(T, e
rTS0ey)
LemmaThe local volatility function satisfies
2(T, erTS0ey) (7)
=
w
T
(T, y)
1 yw
wy
(T, y) + 122wy2
(T, y) + 14 (14 1w + y2
w)(w
y)2(T, y)
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time-space parameterization of the local vola functionLocal vola from BS implied vola
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p
Steps in the proof of Equation (7)
a) First write the BS call price as a function of log moneyness and
implied total variance
CBS(y,w) := BS call(S0, erTS0e
y, T,
w
T, r).
Observe that
CBS(y, w) = S0
( yw
+ w2
) ey( yw w
2)
The partial derivatives of CBS satisfy
2CBS
w2(y, w) =
2CBS
yw(y, w) =
2CBS
y2(y, w)
CBS
y(y, w) =
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time-space parameterization of the local vola functionLocal vola from BS implied vola
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Steps in the proof of Equation (7)
b) Write the market call price as a function of T and logmoneyness:
C(T, y) := C(T, erTS0ey).
Dupires formula implies
1
22(T, erTS0e
y)(2C
y2 C
y)(T, y) = CT(T, y). (8)
Proof of (8).
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time-space parameterization of the local vola functionLocal vola from BS implied vola
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Steps in the proof of Equation (7)
c) Observe that by definition we have
C(T, y) = CBS(y,w(y, T)).
With this one can rewrite Dupires formula in terms of CBS andthen derive (7).Proof.
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Objections to local volatility models
Local volatility models are criticized because:
bad statistical properties: the local volatility functions change considerably over time.
E.g. parameters usually change from one week to the next bad prediction properties
See Dumas, Fleming, Whaley. Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical
Tests. Journal of Finance, 6. 1998.The local volatility model predicts the smile/skew to move inthe opposite direction as the underlying; in reality, both movein the same direction.See Hagan, Kumar, Lesniewski, Woodward. Managing Smile Risk.
Wilmott Magazine, 2002.
hedging based on volatility models is inconsistent
ad hoc model; no economic explanation of the local volatilityfunction
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