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Local Officials as Partisan Operatives: An Examinationof Early Voting Sites in Texas Counties
Andrea EckelmanDepartment of Political Science
University of Houston
Markie McBrayerDepartment of Political Science
University of Houston
R. Lucas WilliamsDepartment of Political Science
University of Houston
May 12, 2016
Abstract
We explore whether county commissioners follow their partisan allegiances when selecting voting sites. Be-
cause low-turnout elections are said to benefit Republicans and high-turnout elections to benefit Democrats,
we expect Republican-dominated commissions to create fewer early voting sites than Democrat-dominated
commissions. Similarly, because demographics are good predictors of citizen partisanship, we expect to
find Republican commissions select early voting sites that disenfranchise minority voters, while Democratic
commissions select voting locations more proximate to minority areas. Using an originally collected dataset,
we assess the party identification of county judges and commissioners and geo-code early voting locations
in Texas from the November 2014 election. First, we assess whether Republican commissions create fewer
sites in their counties than Democratic commissions. Second, we assess whether early voting locations are
equitably sited using spatial analyses in ArcMap. Third, we examine if the county commissioners court’s
partisan composition affects where the early voting sites are placed. Our results provide some support
for our theory that partisan county commissioners strategically create early voting sites to benefit their
party’s electoral fortunes; specifically, Republican commissions employ fewer early voting locations than
Democratic commissions. Yet, these locations do appear to be equitably sited. We discuss substantial and
statistical explanations for these results as well as their implications.
After the Supreme Court struck down the coverage formula in Section 4 of the Voting Rights Act
of 1965, several states, including Texas, moved quickly to pass new, more restrictive, voting laws.
Because parties vet candidates via the state nomination process, they can ensure party loyalists
occupy positions with key electoral powers, such as selecting early voting locations. In Texas,
the county commissioners court (composed of a county judge and four county commissioners)
has significant discretion in this regard, deciding where early voting locations will be placed. We
present three main reasons why county commissioners courts might strategically choose polling
sites: (1) they care about reelection and will utilize the tools of their office to enhance their chances
of winning, (2) they are progressively ambitious, and (3) parties select loyalists who will utilize
the powers of their office to bolster the party’s electoral prospects. We hypothesize that partisan
county commissioners will select locations that benefit their own party’s electoral prospects. To
that end, we seek to answer the question of how many sites the commissions will employ and
whether early voting sites are located in areas that disenfranchise minorities, given the close re-
lationship between race and partisanship in the electorate. There is some preliminary support for
our theoretical expectations. Specifically, county governments that are dominated by Republican
officials tend to have fewer early voting sites and less of their county’s population lives proximate
to such sites. Still, the early voting locations appear to be equitably sited in terms of race. Given
these results, we discuss the implications for democratic politics.
County Commission Description, Powers, and Responsibilities
Each state varies in how it selects early voting locations, and whether it allows early voting at all.1.
For instance, Washington, Oregon, and Colorado hold all elections by mail.2 In West Virginia, the
county commissioners select the election day sites, but early voting always occurs at the county
courthouse. North Carolina utilizes a State Board of Elections to appoint the county-level Board of
Elections, for which not more than two members may belong to the same party.3 Table 1 describes
how early voting is conducted in counties across the U.S.; whether county commissioners courts
1
(or the state’s equivalent) choose the location of in-person voting; and how many partisan county
commissioners are elected on a partisan ballot. In-Person Early Voting equals Y if counties in the
state conduct voting polls prior to election day. County prerogative equals Y if voting sites (in
general, not just early voting sites) are selected by county officials or the equivalent.4 Number (#)
of Partisan Counties equals the total count of counties in a state in which candidates for county-
wide office run in a primary and general election under partisan identities.5
In the State of Texas, each county commissioners court is made up of a county judge and four
county commissioners who share responsibility for placing early voting locations. Each of the
five positions are elected to four-year terms in partisan elections, and they comprise the governing
body of each county. County judges are elected by the county at-large and commissioners are
elected from four districts within each county. Party organizations in the state nominate members
to represent the party on the ballot. To be nominated, a prospective candidate must apply with
either a state- or county-level party chair. In terms of official responsibilities of commissioners
courts, county judges preside over the commissioners’ court and are the most powerful member.
Together, the judge and four county commissioners form the commissioners court, and they are
responsible for administering elections within the county. One of the more important functions of
the commissioners court is to determine where elections are held and how long the voting locations
are open.7 If the Texas county has a population less than 100,000, they need only have one early
voting location at the county election official’s main office, typically a city hall or court house,
meaning that in such a case the county government has no discretion in deciding its location.
Texas counties containing populations between 100,000 and 120,000 must set up at least one early
voting site in each county commissioner’s district if more than 15% of registered voters request
it.8 If the county’s population is between 120,000 and 400,000, then the county is required to have
the “main early voting polling place” to be operable for at least 12 hours each workday for the
final week of the early voting period, in addition to one site in each county commissioner’s district,
for a total of five early voting locations. Counties containing more than 400,000 residents have a
minimum of one early voting location per state legislative district, in addition to the main early
2
Table 1: Voting Location Determination by StateState In-Person Early Voting County Prerogative # Partisan Counties
Alabama N Y All (67)Alaska Y N 0 (10)
Arkansas Y Y All (75)California Y Y 0 (58)Colorado N N All (64)
Connecticut N - -Florida Y Y 62 (67)Georgia Y Y 157 (159)Idaho Y Y All (44)
Illinois Y Y All (102)Indiana Y Y All (92)
Iowa Y Y All (99)Kansas Y Y 103 (105)
Kentucky N Y All (120)Louisiana Y Y 0 (64)
Maine Y N All (16)Massachusetts N Y All (14)
Michigan N N All (83)Minnesota Y N 0 (87)Mississippi N Y All (82)
Montana Y N 46 (56)Nebraska Y Y All (93)Nevada Y Y All (17)
New Hampshire N N All (10)New Jersey Y Y All (21)
New Mexico Y Y All (33)New York N N All (57)
North Carolina Y N All (100)North Dakota Y Y 0 (53)
Oklahoma Y N All (77)Oregon N N 27 (36)
Pennsylvania N Y All (67)South Carolina N Y All (46)South Dakota Y Y 0 (66)
Tennessee Y N Some6
Texas Y Y All (254)Utah Y Y 27 (29)
Vermont Y N All (14)Virginia N Y All (95)
Washington N N 34 (39)West Virginia Y Y All (55)
Wisconsin Y N 0 (72)
voting location.9 There are 39 Texas counties with populations over 100,000, thus there are 39
county commissions with the potential discretion to decide early voting locations.
3
Party Organizations, Local Officials, and the Partisan Selection
of Polling Locations
We aim to determine whether county commissioners choose voting locations based on criteria
benefiting their own party in elections. Because local officials are beholden to their party organi-
zations, we argue that they toe the party line when the duties and powers of their office allow. For
instance, because county commissioners are elected on partisan ballots, they will be motivated to
look out for the interests of their party. Similarly to many state legislatures’ decennial redistricting
struggle, county commissions wish to shape the electoral landscape in a way that benefits their
own party. Commissioners’ desires to make it more convenient for their party’s “base” to vote
likely shape their decisions on where to place early voting locations and how many to place. We
expect these county officials to select voting sites that are geographically more proximate to these
demographic “bases.” We also expect Democratic county officials to place more sites overall in an
attempt to boost turnout.
The Costs of Voting, and Partisan Advantages in Turnout
According to Downs (1957), voters engage in a cost-benefit assessment of the decision to go to the
polls to vote. When perceived benefits outweigh the costs of casting a ballot, rational citizens vote.
This is, of course, a simplification of rational choice models of turnout. Aldrich (1993) explains
how the cost-benefit model is a practical tool for assessing the turnout phenomenon because simply
voting is one of the lowest-cost forms of participation. That is, casting a ballot is the most likely
form of political participation to experience higher benefits than costs. Among citizens choosing
not to turn out, the costs of voting that lead to “rational nonparticipation” include income, edu-
cation, institutional barriers, and the lack of resources associated with these factors (Rosenstone
and Hansen, 2003). In our examination of whether local party officials choose voting locations
that will benefit their own party, we simply assume increasing the costs of voting is a deterrent to
casting a ballot.
4
The vox populi regarding the partisan effects of turnout holds that large turnout benefits Demo-
cratic candidates and depressed turnout benefits Republicans. While research is mixed on the point
(e.g. Gomez, Hansford and Krause (2007); Hansford and Gomez (2010); Highton and Wolfinger
(2001); Tucker, Vedlitz and DeNardo (1986); DeNardo (1980)), we believe Republican and Demo-
cratic officeholders alike operate under the assumption that higher turnout benefits Democrats and
lower turnout benefits Republicans. Therefore, we need not assume this partisan turnout effect
to be the case; rather, we assume that local officeholders believe it to be the case. Laws thought
to depress turnout, such as voter ID restrictions, are often championed in Republican-dominated
state legislatures. Likewise, the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) of 1993, passed by a
Democratically controlled Congress, reduced barriers to voting by requiring voter registration ca-
pabilities be made available at all benefit-administering agency offices. Due in part to the belief
that turnout benefits Democrats, Congress divided along party lines on this bill. Of the 73 original
co-sponsors of this bill, only one was Republican. Of the 62 senators voting Yea, only 5 were
Republican. Of the 259 House members voting Yea, only 21 were Republican. Not only does the
general public believe large turnout benefits Democrats while low turnout benefits Republicans,
but partisan officeholders at the highest level seem to believe it as well.
For locally elected partisan officials, increasing the costs of voting involves placing legal and
logistical barriers between the voter and the voting booth. Voter ID laws and registration deadlines
are examples of legal barriers to voting through which potential voters must navigate if they are
to cast a ballot on election day. Logistical barriers to voting include features of electoral admin-
istration, such as weekday voting, single-day voting, business-hours-only voting, and distance to
the polling place. Haspel and Knotts (2005) show that locating polling sites further away from
prospective voters reduces the likelihood of turnout. Other scholars find more nuance in this ar-
gument, noting a non-linear negative relationship between greater distances to in-person precinct
voting sites and low turnout. However, distance to a polling place is correlated with voting by mail
(Dyck and Gimpel, 2005). Dyck and Gimpel do find a negative linear relationship between turnout
and distance to early voting location. There are also empirical instances of local officials’ polling-
5
location decisions having implications for who turns out. For example, local officials moving
polling locations has disproportionately affected Democratic voters due to increased costs associ-
ated with the logistics of finding and securing transportation (Brady and McNulty, 2011). Other ev-
idence suggests that decreasing the costs of voting increases turnout (Stein and Vonnahme, 2008).
As we argue below, party operatives utilize the prerogatives of their office to construct logistical
barriers to voting (Republicans) and also to facilitate turnout (Democrats).
Local Officials as Party Operatives
In our explanation of why county commissions may select early voting sites that disenfranchise
minority citizens, we make several key assumptions. First, county commissioners are effectively
legislators. This is a widely accepted notion and is particularly accurate in Texas.10 Second, Downs
(1957) tells us that parties are rational end-maximizing agents. Parties are primarily made up of
election-oriented office seekers. We assume that, once in office, party members utilize available le-
gal tools and prerogatives to maximize the number of votes cast for their party on election day. One
of those tools, we argue, is the ability to select polling locations. Third, legislators are prospective
political actors concerned about their own political futures. Electoral concerns are therefore key to
a legislator’s decision-making calculus (Mayhew, 1974; Fenno, 1978). Politicians are strategic and
will behave in ways that benefit their party (Aldrich, 1993). In pursuit of the best possible election
circumstances for the future, county commissioners select early voting sites to benefit their party’s
electoral fortunes, in addition to their own.
If parties are rational end-maximizing agents (Downs, 1957), then they will utilize their or-
ganizational clout to motivate sub-state elected officials to make decisions strategically toward
the goal of benefiting their party’s electoral prospects. According to Aldrich (1995), contempo-
rary parties have become better parties-in-government and parties-as-organizations than parties-
in-the-electorate. As “parties in service to candidates,” political parties seek to boost the electoral
fortunes of office-seekers. In addition to services such as campaign bundling and training that
Aldrich (1995) mentions, one way parties can serve their candidates is through the ability to take
6
advantage of institutional prerogatives, such as voting site selection. By selecting polling sites
in locations more proximate to neighborhoods where residential demographics favor the party,
forward-thinking legislators can provide an additional edge for their party in the next election
cycle.
By providing resources, such as campaign financing and contacts with campaign managers,
parties become conduits for political careers. While the party organization operates in service of
popular candidates, ambitious candidates at the local level must prove themselves to the party.
“Nomination by a major party...remains an all but necessary condition for election to major of-
fice.” (Aldrich, 1995). Both progressively and statically ambitious politicians rely on party re-
sources to be elected and reelected. Politicians who are progressively ambitious plan to represent
the party in higher offices. Statically ambitious politicians wish to maintain their current positions
(Schlesinger, 1966).11 County commissioners who are progressively ambitious need to demon-
strate political skills and show service to the party if they are to run for higher office. One way
progressively ambitious commissioners might do so is by utilizing their office to boost electoral
fortunes for the party. In this way, commissioners serve the interests of their parties by strategically
locating voting sites to be most easily accessible to likely supporters of their party.
Party organizations also maintain close ties with their candidates. From recruitment to cam-
paign activities such as voter registration, local and state party organizations play a significant role
in the election of their candidates (Frendreis, Gibson and Vertz, 1990). Furthermore, legislative
leaders at the state level are often personally involved in recruiting candidates at the local level
(Sanbonmatsu, 2006). Party recruiters desire candidates who will support the party’s goals while
in office. Indeed, one survey of local party chairs in the South found they devote a large portion
of their efforts to activities, including candidate recruitment, which further the party’s interests
(Steed et al., 1998). This is particularly true for local party organizations and local political elites.
Masket (2011) describes informal party organizations (IPOs) as local elites connected to the state
and national party. These partisan gatekeepers control the nomination process. As noted above,
parties vet candidates via the nomination process, allowing the party to select loyalists to lower
7
level positions and more talented politicians to ambitious offices such as executive positions, con-
gressional offices, or the state legislature. When these potential loyalists hold local positions such
as county commissioner, they are expected to toe the party line when the responsibilities of their
office involve the electoral success of the party. For county commissioners in Texas, who are nom-
inated by state and local party officials, the ability to determine the quantity and location of early
voting sites is a useful tool in bolstering party electoral success.
Having established party organizations as a primary source of motivation for county commis-
sioners’ behavior and the partisan electoral consequences of turnout, we move toward developing
specific expectations about how legislators in such a party-dominated local political environment
might behave. It is well established that Republicans and Democrats have very different voting
bases in terms of racial and ethnic groups. 58% of non-Hispanic white Texans identify as Re-
publican and 28% as Democrat. Black Texans identify as Democrat at a rate of 76%, while only
9% are Republican. 25% of Hispanic Texans identify as Republican and 44% as Democrat. .12
Given these differences, parties do well to enable the socioeconomic demographics who generally
support them at the polls. We assert that placing early voting locations in select quantities and
nearer to neighborhoods containing favorable demographics is an electorally adroit maneuver that
one should expect of office seekers motivated by election-oriented party organizations.
Polling Site Quantity Hypothesis: If county commissioners behave as partisan operatives, then
Democratic counties will have more sites than Republican ones, since officials believe that lower-
ing the costs of voting benefits Democrats whereas increasing the costs of voting benefits Repub-
licans.
Polling Site Selection Hypothesis: If legislators are forward-looking, end-maximizing party op-
eratives, then Republican county commissioners will strategically locate early voting sites geo-
graphically proximate to white areas in order to bolster Republican candidate success. Likewise,
Democrats will locate early voting sites geographically proximate to non-white areas in order to
8
bolster Democratic candidate success.
Data
The locations of the early voting sites were obtained by searching county websites, as well as
media publications, for a list of locations and hours. For cases in which the site information was
obtained using media publications, we also contacted the county and confirmed the sites with them.
In total, we have sites from 39 Texas counties for a total of 740 full-time, temporary, and mobile
early voting locations. Our sample only includes counties with populations greater than 100,000
because only these counties have the discretion to site early voting locations. For counties with
populations less than 100,000, the early voting locations are required to be at the county election
official’s main office, typically a city hall or court house, meaning that the county government
has no discretion in deciding its location. There are three types of early voting locations in the
data, including full-time, temporary, and mobile early voting locations. From these we created two
types of early voting sites—those that are open all days or all but one or two, and those that are
open fewer days than that. For instance, in Travis County, some mobile voting locations are open
every single day of the early voting period, and, thus, we coded them as being full-time sites. For
those sites that were open less than that, we categorized them as temporary/mobile while noting
how many days they were open. In the first set of analyses that assess how partisanship affects
the number of early voting locations, we model the number of sites per county (broken out as all
sites, full-time, or temporary) as a function of the partisan composition of the county government.
We collected the partisan composition of the county government through Internet searches, as well
as by contacting the counties themselves. We ensured that the commissioners and judges were
in office by January 2014. This variable can take on values from 0 to 5—0 means that there
are only Democratic officials (commissioners and county judge) seated on the commission and 5
means that all commission officials are Republican. We expect a negative relationship between
county government and the number of sites, since Republican counties will attempt to increase the
9
costs of voting, thereby benefiting their party. We also control for the county’s population, on the
assumption that a greater county population is associated with more early voting sites.
In the second set of analyses, we assess how much of the county’s population lives within
one mile of an early voting location. In our collection of early voting locations, we also gathered
information on site, street address, city, and ZIP code. This information was then used to geo-
code the sites using Texas A&M’s publicly available batch geo-coding system. Approximately
four-fifths of the data were geo-coded correctly using parcel locations or street interpolation. The
other fifth were geo-coded by finding the ZIP code centroid, which did not meet the necessary
accuracy required for this project. For the cases in which the sites had obtained only the ZIP code
centroid, we turned to alternative means of geo-coding, specifically using Google’s latitude and
longitude statistics for these locations. This strategy ensures that all sites are geo-coded accurately.
Once the sites were obtained, we projected the locations in ArcMap onto Census block groups
with information on total population. The National Historical Geographic Information System
(NHGIS), managed by the University of Minnesota, provides an accessible interface for Census
data with geographic identifiers, and their site was used to obtain the block group shape file and
data. The block group shape file is from the 2010 TIGER Lines. In the analyses, we project 1-mile
buffers around each of the early voting sites. For an illustration of this strategy, see Figure 1, in
which early voting locations and their corresponding 1-mile buffer are mapped for central Houston
in Harris County.
Methodologically, we assume that individuals are distributed evenly across block groups. The
percent of the block group that lies within the buffer is multiplied by the total number of individu-
als. For instance, if 30% of one block group with a population of 100 and 40% of a second block
group with a population of 200 lies within the one-mile buffer, then the total population of the
buffer is 110 (.3*100+.4*200). We use this strategy to calculate the total number of individuals
within the buffer regions. For instance, if 60,000 people live within the 1-mile buffers of the early
voting locations, and the county is comprised of 400,000 individuals, then we can conclude that
15% of people have reasonable access to early voting locations. In the second analysis, we posit
10
Figure 1: Map of Houston Early Voting Sites with 1-Mile Buffer
11
that as a county commission becomes more conservative (or Republican), a smaller portion of the
population will live within the 1-mile buffer, meaning that more of the county’s population lacks
proximate access to early voting sites. We also control for the county’s total population, the density
of said population, and the area of the county. It is likely that counties with greater area and lower
density will see more of their population have proximate access to early voting sites.
In our third set of analyses, we assess where county governments will place their early voting
sites and which demographic communities have access to such sites. Again, we use the 1-mile
buffers and determine how much of the non-Hispanic white, Hispanic, and black populations of
each county live within the buffers, employing the same technique used in the previous analy-
sis. This is a common empirical strategy in the environmental justice literature, which seeks to
determine which demographic communities are most burdened by the placement of toxic waste
sites (Sheppard et al., 1999; Boer et al., 1997; Centner, Kriesel and Keeler, 1996). Yet, we are
not interested in which communities are burdened by these early voting sites, so much as which
demographic communities have greater access to such an asset. Thus, we calculate the demogra-
phy of the communities that lie within the 1-mile buffers, specifically the percent of the county’s
non-Hispanic whites, blacks, and Hispanics that live within thosebuffers. For instance, if 20,000
Hispanics live within the 1-mile buffers in a county with 100,000 Hispanics, then 20% of the
county’s Hispanics are said to have sufficient access to early voting locations. Given that we ex-
pect Republicans to site more early voting locations in white areas and Democrats to site more in
non-white areas, then we should expect that in counties with Republican county governments, a
greater percentage of the white population will live within the 1-mile buffers relative to non-whites.
For example, a county government comprised of all Republicans might have, say, 24% and 25%
of its black and Hispanic population within the 1-mile buffers, respectively, while 35% of non-
Hispanic whites live within the buffers. Conversely, county governments dominated by Democrats
will have a greater percentage of their non-white populations living within their 1-mile buffers than
their white populations. Thus, we develop two measures as dependent variables—the first is the
difference between the percentage of a county’s non-Hispanic white population and its percentage
12
of Hispanic population lying within the buffers, and the second is the difference between the per-
centage of the non-Hispanic white population and the percentage of black population lying within
the buffers. Positive values for both of these measures would suggest that whites have greater ac-
cess to voting sites within the county, while negative values indicate that non-whites have greater
access to voting sites. For instance, a value of 2 means that 2% more of a non-Hispanic white pop-
ulation has access to early voting sites, relative to the non-white group. We would expect that there
would be a positive relationship between the partisanship of the county and these two measures.
That is, the more conservative the county government, the more whites (percentage-wise) would
live within one mile of an early voting location relative to non-whites. In all subsequent models,
we employ basic OLS models.
Results
As illustrated in Table 2, the degree to which a county government is Republican has a strong and
statistically significant effect on the number of early voting locations, even when controlling for
population. Specifically, for every one additional Republican commissioner or county judge, the
number of early voting locations declines by about 6. More substantively, a county with all Demo-
cratic officials on the county government would have approximately 32 more early voting locations
than a county government composed of all Republican officials. The same holds true in analyses of
full-time and part-time sites. For every additional Republican commissioner or county judge, the
number of full-time early voting locations declines by 1.5, meaning that an all-Democratic county
government would have approximately 8 more full-time sites than a comparable all-Republican
county government. Of the seventeen counties that opted to have temporary or mobile voting loca-
tions, we see a similar relationship, wherein more Republican members on the county government
is correlated with fewer temporary early voting locations. Still, the findings for temporary sites
should be taken with caution, given the small sample size. Ultimately, these results provide some
general support for the Polling Site Quantity Hypothesis, suggesting that Republican county com-
13
Table 2: Effect of County Partisanship on Number of Sites
Dependent variable:
Number of Sites
(All Sites) (Full-Time Sites) (Temporary Sites)
Republican County −6.309∗∗∗ −1.570∗∗ −4.921∗∗
(1.412) (0.591) (1.877)
Total Pop. 0.00001∗∗∗ 0.00001∗∗∗ 0.00001(0.00000) (0.00000) (0.00001)
Constant 36.628∗∗∗ 12.422∗∗∗ 23.443∗∗∗
(6.131) (2.569) (7.444)
Observations 39 39 17R2 0.544 0.761 0.390Adjusted R2 0.519 0.748 0.303Residual Std. Error 13.481 (df = 36) 5.648 (df = 36) 13.309 (df = 14)F Statistic 21.480∗∗∗ (df = 2; 36) 57.441∗∗∗ (df = 2; 36) 4.477∗∗ (df = 2; 14)
Note: ∗p<0.1; ∗∗p<0.05; ∗∗∗p<0.01
missions will create fewer early voting sites in order to increase the costs of voting in pursuit of
more a more favorable electoral environment for their party.
We also seek to assess whether the partisanship of the county government affects the percent
of the total population that lacks access to early voting locations. Below in Table 3, we find
general support for our hypothesis that more of the county’s population will lack access to early
voting sites, as the county government becomes more Republican. Specifically, for every additional
Republican member on the county government, the percent of the population that lives within the
1-mile buffer zones for all early voting sites decreases by 5.2%. That is, a county with an all-
Democratic commission and judge would have 26% more of their population living within the
1-mile buffer zones than a similar county with an all-Republican commission and judge. The same
relationship holds true for full-time sites, wherein for every additional Republican member on the
county government, the percent of the total population living within the 1-mile buffer zones for
full-time early voting locations decreases by 2.2%. In other words, a fully Republican county
government has 10% less of their total population living within one mile of a full-time early voting
14
Table 3: Effect of County Partisanship on Percent Proximate to Early Voting Sites
Dependent variable:
Percent of Population within 1-Mile Bufferl
(All Sites) (Full-Time Sites) (Temporary Sites)
Republican County −0.052∗∗∗ −0.022∗∗ −0.026(0.016) (0.010) (0.031)
County Population −0.00000 −0.00000 0.00000(0.00000) (0.00000) (0.00000)
Area 0.00004 −0.00000 0.0001(0.0001) (0.00004) (0.0001)
Density 0.00001 0.00004 −0.0002(0.0001) (0.0001) (0.001)
Constant 0.417∗∗∗ 0.277∗∗∗ 0.196(0.112) (0.072) (0.159)
Observations 39 39 17R2 0.324 0.166 0.291Adjusted R2 0.244 0.067 0.055Residual Std. Error 0.135 (df = 34) 0.087 (df = 34) 0.166 (df = 12)F Statistic 4.067∗∗∗ (df = 4; 34) 1.686 (df = 4; 34) 1.233 (df = 4; 12)
Note: ∗p<0.1; ∗∗p<0.05; ∗∗∗p<0.01
location, relative to a fully Democratic county government. The results for the temporary sites
are null, but, as noted previously, these results are based on fewer observations and thus may
be unreliable. Again, such results provide some general support for the Polling Site Quantity
Hypothesis, suggesting that Republican county commissions utilize their power to determine early
voting locations in a way that increases the size of population living distantly from the site, thereby
increasing the costs of voting in order to benefit their party’s electoral prospects.
Based on the findings in Table 4, we have little support for our Polling Site Selection Hypoth-
esis. In fact, our results run counter to our hypotheses in the case of black access to early voting
sites. For every additional Republican county official, the percentage of blacks that live within
a 1-mile radius of an early voting location increases by 2% relative to the white population. For
instance, if a county were all Republican, then we would expect that approximately 8% more black
15
Table 4: Effect of County Partisanship on Black Access to Early Voting Sites
Dependent variable:
Percent White Access Relative to Black Access
(All Sites) (Full-Time Sites) (Temporary Sites)
Republican County −0.020∗∗∗ −0.023∗∗∗ 0.002(0.005) (0.005) (0.007)
Constant 0.029 0.048∗∗ −0.028(0.019) (0.018) (0.023)
Observations 39 39 17R2 0.322 0.404 0.004Adjusted R2 0.304 0.388 −0.062Residual Std. Error 0.047 (df = 37) 0.047 (df = 37) 0.049 (df = 15)F Statistic 17.587∗∗∗ (df = 1; 37) 25.093∗∗∗ (df = 1; 37) 0.063 (df = 1; 15)
Note: ∗p<0.1; ∗∗p<0.05; ∗∗∗p<0.01
voters would live within 1 mile of the early voting locations relative to non-Hispanic whites. The
same relationship holds true for the full-time sites. For every additional Republican county of-
ficial, the percentage of black voters living within 1 mile of the early voting locations increases
by 2.3% relative to non-Hispanic whites. While these results seem to contradict our expectations
that, given strong voting correlations between blacks and Democrats, Republican commissions will
place voting sites less proximate to residential concentrations of blacks, we discuss below some
legal reasons why these results run counter to our hypothesis.
Based on the findings in Table 5, we have little support for our Polling Site Selection Hypothesis
with regards to Hispanics. Yet, in this case, the results appear null, suggesting that Hispanics and
whites have relatively equitable access to early voting sites regardless of the partisan affiliation of
the county government. As we discuss below, there are legal reasons to explain the failure of our
demographic hypotheses.
16
Table 5: Effect of County Partisanship on Hispanic Access to Early Voting Sites
Dependent variable:
Percent White Access Relative to Hispanic Access
(All Sites) (Full-Time Sites) (Temporary Sites)
Republican County −0.007 −0.008 0.004(0.006) (0.005) (0.011)
Constant −0.021 −0.012 −0.041(0.023) (0.019) (0.035)
Observations 39 39 17R2 0.036 0.071 0.010Adjusted R2 0.010 0.046 −0.056Residual Std. Error 0.057 (df = 37) 0.049 (df = 37) 0.075 (df = 15)F Statistic 1.393 (df = 1; 37) 2.833 (df = 1; 37) 0.155 (df = 1; 15)
Note: ∗p<0.1; ∗∗p<0.05; ∗∗∗p<0.01
Discussion
Based on the results above, we find support for the theory proposed here. Our results indicate
that Republican county commissions have fewer sites, with less of their total population living
within one mile of their early voting locations. This suggests that Republican county governments
increase the costs of voting for all constituents by having fewer early voting locations. In contrast,
Democrats employ more early voting locations in order to decrease the costs of voting for all
constituents. As we argue above, Republicans seek to depress turnout due to the popular notion
that Republicans win low-turnout elections and Democrats seek to facilitate turnout due to the
notion that Democrats win in high-turnout elections. As good partisan warriors, both Republican
and Democratic county commissioners utilize the prerogatives of their office to bolster their party’s
chances of electoral success across the ballot.
However, there was less obvious support for the notion that county commissions would locate
early voting sites, especially full-time sites, in residential areas made up of favorable racial demo-
graphics. We expected Republican commissions to locate sites geographically distant from blacks
and Hispanics due to voting trends suggesting these demographics tend to vote for Democrats.
17
Similarly, we expected Democratic commissions to locate sites more proximate to black and His-
panic areas. It turns out, Republicans locate sites, especially full-time sites, to be more inclusive of
their county’s black population. The results for Hispanics were largely null, suggesting that county
governments place early voting sites relatively equitably with regard to Hispanics. This may be
a signal that Republicans, or at least those in Texas, make some effort to reach out to minority
demographics. We believe a likely explanation for this finding stems from the Voting Rights Act.
Because Section 2 prohibits any discriminatory practice curtailing the ability to vote on the basis
of race, any attempt to use the prerogatives of the county commission to select voting sites in this
way would be illegal. Therefore, failure to find support for our Polling Site Selection Hypothesis
is not so surprising after all.
Moreover, care must be taken in any discussion of the equity of site selection. That is, are
we discussing equity in terms of all demographic sub-populations having the same access to early
voting sites, or whether the siting of early voting locations contributes to the equitable turnout of
all demographics? For instance, if 34% of blacks, Hispanics, and non-Hispanic whites live within
one mile of an early voting location, but only 26% of Hispanics and blacks vote early, while 40%
of non-Hispanic whites do, is such a situation equitable? As mentioned previously, different racial
and ethnic groups face different costs related to voting. Take, for instance, mobility in Texas. We
can imagine that individuals who have access to their own car in order to drive themselves, as
opposed to walking or taking public transit, to the early voting locations would face lower costs
in voting. Yet, not every racial and ethnic group has equal access to a personal vehicle. In the
counties examined in this analysis, nearly 83% of non-Hispanic whites drive themselves alone to
work, suggesting they have access to their own vehicle and therefore superior means by which
to transport themselves to an early voting location. In contrast, 78% of Hispanics and blacks
drive themselves to work, meaning that 5% less of these sub-populations have access to their own
vehicle. In other words, blacks and Hispanics face greater costs, at least in terms of the mode by
which they arrive at an early voting location, relative to non-Hispanic whites.
The fact that we only find support for one of our hypotheses may be a result of our admittedly
18
limited empirical models. First, Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is probably a deterrent to using
race as a basis for voting site selection. Second, there is likely more nuance to the idea that Repub-
licans would avoid all minority areas. For instance, there may be a socio-economic component that
we’ve yet to incorporate, like conservative governments targeting low-income white communities
while avoiding low-income minority communities. We hope to delve into such demographic nu-
ances in future iterations. Third, we would also like to analyze how these early voting sites affect
turnout. Currently, we are merely positing that the number and siting of early voting locations
would disenfranchise some groups more than others, depending on the party in power. ? show
that the existence of early voting does not increase turnout. However, they suggest that data on the
quantity and geographic proximity to populations would provide a clearer picture of the effects of
early voting on turnout. We hope to incorporate turnout data into our analysis to test this notion.
Ultimately, our findings that Republican commissions provide fewer early voting locations overall
than Democratic commissions and less of the population in Republican counties fall within a close
distance to the poll than in Democratic counties is encouraging for our theory of local officials as
party operatives.
19
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Notes
1The states that allow early voting are: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, D.C., Florida, Georgia,
Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mex-
ico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia,
Wisconsin, Wyoming
2These data were collected from the National Conference of State Legislatures at http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-
and-campaigns/absentee-and-early-voting.aspx
3http://www.orangecountync.gov/departments/boardofelections/index.php
4These data were collected by the authors using ballotpedia.org, local media, county government websites, and
secretary of state websites.
5These data were obtained from the National Association of Counties at http://www.naco.org/sites/default/files/documents/County%20Elections%20Partisian%20or%20Non%20Partisian.pdf.
6Tennessee uses county Election Commissions appointed by the state election commission to select locations.
7Texas Election Code: http://county.org/member-services/legal-resources/publications/Documents/Guide-to-Laws-
for-County-Officials.pdf
8United States Election Assistance Commission: http://www.eac.gov/assets/1/VirtualMeetingRoom/AVM.doc
9Texas Election Code: http://www.statutes.legis.state.tx.us/Docs/EL/htm/EL.85.htm
10For example, see here: http://mctx.org/dept/departmentsc/commissionerscourt/.
11Schlesinger also mentions discretely ambitious politicians who seek no reelection. We assume these politicians
are few and are generally party loyalists.
12These statistics were obtained from the Pew Research Center’s 2014 Religious Landscape Study (RLS-II).
23