Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
LNG Masterplan for Rhine-Main-Danube
The European Union’s TEN-T programme supporting
This project is co-funded by the European Commission / DG MOVE / TEN-T
A project implemented by LNG Masterplan Consortium
Sub-activity 1.1 Status Quo Analysis & Trends
D 1.1.1. Status Quo Analysis & Trends - LNG
Framework and market analysis for the Rhine corridor
The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the author. The European Union is not responsible for any
use that may be made of the information contained therein.
D 1.1.1. Status Quo Analysis & Trends LNG Framework and market analysis for the Rhine corridor
Version: 1.0
Date: 30.09.2014
Status: Final / Public
D 1.1.1 Status Quo Analysis & Trends - Rhine Corridor
SuAc 1.1 Status Quo Analysis & Trends
Document History
Version Date Authorised
1.0 Final & approved 30.9.2014 Port of Rotterdam, Port of Antwerp, Port of Mannheim,
Port of Strasbourg, Port of Switzerland
Contributing Authors
Organisation
Buck Constultants International, Pace Global, TNO
Port of Rotterdam, Port of Antwerp, Port of Mannheim, Port of Strasbourg, Port of Switzerland
Introductory note
The Status Quo Analysis & Trends of the LNG Framework and market analysis for the Rhine corridor
studies was subcontracted to a consortium formed by Buck Constultants International, Pace Global,
TNO after a tendering procedure. The final deliverable was approved by involved beneficiaries and
contractor(s) in September 2014.
Commissioned by:
Rhine Port Group
Nijmegen, September 2014
LNG Framework and Market
Analysis for the Rhine corridor _________________________________________________________
Status Quo Analysis
Contents
Page
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 LNG Framework and Market analysis 1
1.2 Scope of Status Quo Analysis 3
Chapter 2 LNG propelled vessels 5
2.1 Current fleet for IWT 6 2.2 Current fleet for Short sea shipping 20
2.3 Prognosis for fleet development 30
2.4 Current and expected LNG fleet in IWT and Short Sea Shipping 36
2.5 Current and expected LNG use per vessel category 42
2.6 Concluding remarks 45
Chapter 3 Drivers for LNG uptake 46
3.1 Macro-economic Drivers 49
3.2 Transport Market Growth Drivers 51
3.3 Energy price drivers 52
3.4 Tax Policy / Regulation 63
3.5 Technological Innovation 69
3.6 Infrastructure readiness 72
3.7 Business Owner’s Risk Perspective 72
3.8 Setting the fuel price: Switching Economics 75
3.9 Concluding remarks 75
Chapter 4 Summary and conclusions 76
Abbreviations 82
References 83
Annex 1 Characteristics of IWT-classes 86
Annex 2 Overview of seagoing vessels 87
Annex 3 Operational characteristics seagoing vessels 88
Annex 4 Current and expected number of LNG vessels in IWT 89
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 1 of 97
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 LNG Framework and Market analysis
Commissioned by the Rhine Port Group (consisting of Port of Rotterdam Authority, Port of
Antwerp, Port of Mannheim, Port of Strasbourg and Porta of Switzerland), the combination
of Buck Consultants International (BCI), TNO and Pace Consulting (Pace) is researching
the possibilities for LNG as an environmental friendly and economic priced fuel for inland
water transport (IWT) on the Rhine corridor. The aim of this study is to assess the need for
LNG (bunker) infrastructure in the Rhine corridor in the years 2015 and forth, specifically for
2020 and 2035.
The project is structured in four sections, at the heart piece of which lies the dynamic model
which is able to provide different scenarios of LNG penetration for inland water transport
(IWT) and short sea shipping (SSS).
Figure 1.1 Framework approach LNG and market analysis
Source: BCI (2014)
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 2 of 97
This document summarises the results of first section within this study, the Status Quo
Analysis & Trends. The document presents a prognosis for LNG as a fuel in inland water-
ways transport (IWT) and short sea shipping as available in existing literature. New re-
search as part of this project and other potential LNG markets such as demand for Heavy
Goods Vehicles (HGV) and industry will be discussed in the forthcoming sections within this
study.
Figure 1.2 Position of this report in framework of the LNG market analysis
Source: BCI (2014)
This report covers the results of the Status Quo Analysis & Trends. Other sections of this
study are covered in separate reports:
LNG supply study; and
LNG demand study.
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 3 of 97
1.2 Scope of Status Quo Analysis
Research questions
In this document, the following questions raised by the Rhine Port Group are answered (see
figure 1.3). These questions are clustered in four categories A, B, C and D.
Figure 1.3 Questions and activities
Source: BCI (2014)
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 4 of 97
Methodology
The methodology used to answer the research questions for the Status Quo Analysis &
Trends report is a literature study. The current status of use of LNG by different user groups
and how experts and market stakeholders view developments in the LNG market are ad-
dressed by looking at results of recent studies. The major sources that have been used are
presented in a table at the beginning of each section.
During the course of this project a new model for estimating supply and demand of small
scale LNG is designed. The output of this model is evaluated by comparing it to estimates
found in other studies. As some developments are either very recent or very volatile in the
current (small scale) LNG market it was necessary to gather additional information through
interviews with market stakeholders. As for instance up to the time of writing this reports
there are only four inland waterway transport vessels running (partially) on LNG the base for
finding user profiles are rather small.
Report Setup
The four categories described above are dealt with in two chapters:
Chapter 2 provides answers to the clusters A and B and deals with the current fleet as
well as the expected fleet development of IWT and sea going vessels in Europe for the
years 2020 and 2035. For this purpose, the LNG penetration level in the fleet is estimat-
ed and translated to the required LNG volume.
Chapter 3 provides answers to the clusters C and D and deals with the drivers for LNG
uptake (including energy price and other drivers).
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 5 of 97
Chapter 2 LNG propelled vessels
As described in chapter 1, this chapter answers the questions shown in clusters A and B
(see below).
Figure 2.1 Questions and activities
The first part of this chapter gives a description of the existing fleet for inland waterway
transport (section 2.1) and sea going vessels (section 2.2). Section 2.3 describes the ex-
pected development of the fleet for both IWT and sea going vessels. For both vessel cate-
gories, conversion to LNG can be interesting. Special attention has been paid to the calcu-
lation of the fuel usage. The calculation of fuel use for both inland waterway transport and
sea going vessels follows the same methodology. Figure 2.2 illustrates the methodology:
Figure 2.2 Calculation steps for fuel use
Section 2.4 presents an overview the current and planned LNG fleet in both IWT and SSS,
based on databases on LNG penetration in Europe. Furthermore the section presents an
overview of the forecasts for LNG uptake that can be found in literature. Finally, section 2.5
described the expected total LNG usage for the current, planned and forecasted fleet up
until 2035.
Fleet and ship categories
Ship operations per category
Engine power per category
Specific fuel use per category
Fuel usage
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 6 of 97
2.1 Current fleet for IWT
2.1.1 Introduction
This section describes the development of inland waterway transport and the inland fleet.
The first part of this section focuses on the structure of the fleet and the developments for
the future, while the latter part will concentrate on the operational characteristics, such as
the equipment of the ships and fuel use.
The most relevant documents that have been analysed for this section are listed in table
2.1:
Table 2.1 Overview of used literature and studies
Publisher Title Relevant information
NEA (2009) Cost structure inland waterway transport Specifications engines and fuel use of
inland ships
TNO (2012); Shipping scenarios for the delta programme Prognoses for inland waterway transport
TNO (2010) Fleet development inland waterway transport Trends in the enlargement of the inland
ships
CCNR (2013) Market perspectives 2013 Activities inland shipping Rhine corridor
2.1.2 Fleet and fleet development
Transport on the Rhine corridor
The Rhine corridor is defined as the Rhine River in Germany, France and Switzerland, in-
cluding the Rhine delta in the Netherlands and Belgium and the tributary rivers in Germany
and Luxemburg, such as the Saar, the Mosel, the Neckar and the Main. Figure 2.3 gives an
overview of the complete Rhine corridor and the service area of this corridor:
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 7 of 97
Figure 2.3 Overview of the Rhine corridor
Source: Rhine Port Group, 2014
1
Figure 2.4 presents the total transport volume of the countries that are part of the Rhine
corridor. The total transport volume for Switzerland is estimated, based on the annual fact-
sheets of the Port of Switzerland. Due to the economic crisis in 2008-2009, the total IWT
volume in the Rhine corridor decreased by 18% in 2009, but total volume recovered in 2010
(growth of 24%). The decline in 2009 was caused because of a strong decline in transport
of ores and coals for the industries in Germany and France.
1 Invitation to tender – LNG Masterplan Rhine-Main-Danube – Ac 1 – LNG Framework and Market Analysis for The Rhine corridor.
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 8 of 97
Figure 2.4 Transported volumes per country 2008-2012
Source: Eurostat (2014)
The total transported volume in, specifically, the Rhine corridor in 2012 was nearly 700 mil-
lion tons and the payload exceeded 100 billion tons-kilometres. Table 2.2 presents the
transport volume for the year 2012:
Table 2.2 Transported volumes in the Rhine corridor in 2012
River / area
Total volume (in million x tons)
Payload distance (in million x ton km)
Rhine (GE) 188.7 46,548 Main(GE) 16.7 2,910 Mosel in Germany 12.7 2,799 Saar (GE) 4.2 255 Ruhr area (GE) 30.2 1,533 Netherlands 303 41,073 Flanders (BE) 69.3 4,200 Wallonia (BE) 42 1,790 Mosel in France 8.5 580 Nord-Pas-de-Calais (FR) 9.3 879 Luxemburg 8.5 290 Main-Danube-Canal 5.8 895
Total 698.9 100,853
Source: CCNR (2013)
Between 2011 and 2012, the total transported volume within the Rhine corridor had a mini-
mal increase (0.4%). The transported volume per river differed, due to specific industries in
the region and variations in developments. For example, the steel industry in Saarland
(Germany) grew due to specialisation, while the industry in Liege (Belgium) decreased. In
effect, the transported volume on the Saar increased and the total transported volume in
Wallonia decreased between 2011 and 2012. This example shows that the transported vol-
ume by IWT is strongly related to economic changes and sector developments.
IWT on the Rhine is the primary mode of transport for the supply of the steel industries (iron
ore) (mainly in Germany) and the energy sector (coal). Important other product groups for
IWT in terms of volume are liquid fuels and petrochemical products, chemical products and
345 271 347 345 350
246 204
230 222 223
130
108
162 173 190 73
68
73 68 69
00
200
400
600
800
1,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tra
nsp
ort
vo
lum
e in
to
nn
es
x m
illio
n
Transport volumes countries Rhine corridor
Netherlands Germany Belgium France Luxemburg Switzerland
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 9 of 97
building material. Containerised cargo accounts for 9% of the total volume. Figure 2.5 pre-
sents the volume of products, transported by IWT in the countries along the Rhine corridor:
Figure 2.5 Transport of product groups by IWT in 2012
Source: CCNR (2013)
Number of inland vessels
The Rhine corridor comprises the inland waterways of Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany,
Luxemburg, France and Switzerland. These countries, with the exception of Luxemburg, are
member of the CCNR, the Central Commission for the Navigation on the Rhine.
Table 2.3 gives an overview of the total fleet of the member states of the CCNR:
21%
18%
15%
14%
11%
9%
8% 4%
Distribution (volume) of transport goods on the Rhine
Ores and metal residues
Solid mineral fuels (coal)
Petroleum and petrochemicalproductsCrude minerals, construction
Chemical products
Containerised goods
Agricultural products
Food products and feed
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 10 of 97
Table 2.3 Overview of the inland waterway fleet of CCNR countries in 2012
Netherlands Germany Belgium France Switzerland Luxembourg Total
Cargo carrying vessels
General Cargo Vessel 3,414 929 1,052 962 16 9 6,382
Push Freight Barge 1,170 786 262 474 4 0 2,696
Lash Ship 1 121 0 0 0 0 122
Lighter 101 52 3 1 0 0 157
Tank Vessel 1,105 510 259 46 49 21 1,990
Push Tank Barge 44 44 5 74 2 2 171
Tank Lighter 16 12 0 0 0 0 28
Total 5,851 2,454 1,581 1,557 71(74*) 32 11,546
Push and tug boats
Push boat 187 213 75 146 1 5 627
Tug 593 131 57 11 2 1 795
Push Tug 408 75 44 0 4 6 537
Total 1,188 419 176 157 7 12 1,959
Other
Passenger Vessel 737 986 52 493
72 4 2,359
Other 2,491 0 134 3 14 7 2,650
Total 10,267 3,859 1,943 1,717 167 55 18,514
* The Port of Switzerland counts 74 Swiss barges in total. This figure differs from the inventarisation of IVR (71
cargo carrying vessels).
Source: IVR 2013
The cargo carrying fleet (11,546 ships) exists of motor vessels and convoys. The motor
vessels (general cargo vessels and tank vessels) account for over 70% of the fleet (8,372).
The convoys consist of a pusher and barges for dry bulk and liquid bulk. The convoys,
which include the push freight barges and the push tank barges, account for almost 25%
(2,867 ships).
Motor vessels can also be deployed as a combination. In such a case, motor vessel func-
tions as a pusher for barges. The use of combinations in the Rhine corridor will not be dis-
cussed separately within this study, because these combinations change per journey and
over time.
Figure 2.6 illustrates the actual fleet for the cargo carrying fleet, with a breakdown in motor
vessels and push tows.
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 11 of 97
Figure 2.6 IWT fleet in the Rhine corridor countries in 2012
Source: IVR 2013
Trends in fleet development
Figure 2.7 presents the number of new vessels for the years 2000 until 2012. On average,
174 new vessels are built per year over this period. Since the peak in 2009 (343 new ves-
sels), the number of new vessels declined. In 2012 only 85 new vessels have been deliv-
ered. No information is available on the breakdown of the new built vessels in dry cargo and
tankers.
Figure 2.7 Numbers of new built vessels for each year 2000-2012
Source: IVR, 2013
4,637
1,624 1,314 1,009 65 30
1,214
830 267
548
6 2
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Netherlands Germany Belgium France Switzerland Luxembourg
Number of vessels in Rhine corridor countries
Motor ships Push freight/tank barges
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
No
. o
f n
ew
vessels
Year
Number of yearly new vessels 2000-2012
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 12 of 97
Just before the economic crisis in 2008, the financial possibilities for ship owners to invest in
new vessels were very good (see also chapter 3). Many ship owners ordered new vessels
to modernize the fleet. The tanker fleet has to converse from single hull tankers to double
hull tankers due to new ADN-regulations (enforcement in 2018).
This conversion of the tank fleet resulted in a relatively high number of new vessels in 2009
and 2010 to respectively 96 and 120 new tanker vessels.. In 2011 and 2012, the number of
new (double hull) tanker vessels has declined to respectively 86 and 39 vessels.
The total capacity of the inland waterway fleet has increased significantly, due to the build-
ing of new vessels and only limited number of vessels that were scrapped.
Furthermore, the average tonnage of vessels has increased for more cost efficient
transport. Because of the expected growth of transport volumes, older and smaller ships
have been replaced by larger ships. In recent years, the replacement of older ships has
been stimulated due to scrapping schemes. Figure 2.8 presents the development of the
average ship size for dry cargo and tankers:
Figure 2.8 Development of the average tonnage for new build vessels between 2000 and 2012
Source: IVR, 2013
The increase of the average volume of the ships is also illustrated by figure 2.9. This figure
illustrates the development of the average ship size for motor ships and convoys (in ton-
nage) for different size classes of inland waterways (CEMT-classes IV, V and VI).
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Vo
lum
e i
n t
on
es
Year
Average tonnage of vessels 2002-2012
Dry cargo Tank cargo Linear (Dry cargo) Linear (Tank cargo)
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 13 of 97
Figure 2.9 Development of the average tonnage for new build vessels 1970 1970-2020
Source: TNO (2010)2
Figure 2.8 shows that the average ship size increased by more than 40% between 1998
and 2008, based on the observation of passing ships at different inland waterways. The
figure presents a bandwidth for the expected increase of the ship size between 2008 and
2020. This bandwidth expresses two trend analyses (1) by using the linear trend for the ship
size between 1970 and 2008 and (2) by using the average annual increase of the ship size
between 1970 and 2008 as a trend.
2 TNO (2010); Fleet development inland waterway transport (Vlootontwikkeling binnenvaart)
426
946
1304
1857
477
1043
1562
2271
762
1523
2219
3109
1552
1868
2662
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Av
era
ge t
on
nag
e p
er
sh
ip (
in t
on
nes)
Year
CEMT-klasse IV: observation CEMT-klasse V: observation
CEMT-klasse VI: observation CEMT-klasse IV: prediction
CEMT-klasse V: prediction CEMT-klasse VI: prediction
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 14 of 97
Age of the fleet
Figure 2.10 illustrates the age distribution for motor vessels, based on the IVR-database.
Data for push freight/tanker barges is not available at the moment.
Figure 2.10 Age distribution (by year of construction) of motor vessels
Source: IVR, 2013
Compared to the dry cargo fleet, the tanker fleet is significantly younger. For tanker vessels,
25% of the tankers are younger than 10 years old and 50% is older than 35 years. For the
general cargo fleet is more than 55% is more than 45 years old and almost 7% is less than
10 years old. The difference in age distribution between tank vessels and general cargo
vessels is earlier explained, due to the conversion of single hull vessels to double hull ves-
sels.
2.1.3 Segmentation of ship classes
The IWT vessels for freight transport are being categorised according to the CEMT-classes.
As discussed in section 2.1.2, the cargo carrying fleet consists of 11,546 vessels; 8,372
motor vessels and 2,876 push barges (convoys). The CEMT-classes account for both cate-
gories. Annex 1 gives an overview of the characteristics of the motor vessels and push
barges, according to the CEMT-classes.
2,437
392
1,104
289
712
317
683
99
570
182
439
198
437
513
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Dry cargo
Tank
Age distribution of inland vessels
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 15 of 97
Table 2.4 presents the characteristics of the motor vessel fleet, based on the CEMT-classes
(see annex 1):
Table 2.4 Categorisation of motor vessels according to CEMT-classes in 2012
Country Number of vessels I II III IV Va VIa
Belgium 1,311 312 215 454 198 117 15
Germany 1,439 29 85 687 443 193 2
France 1,008 620 155 191 35 7 -
Luxembourg 30 3 2 6 14 3 3
Netherlands 4,519 223 825 1,467 940 906 159
Switzerland 65 2 2 4 24 33 -
Total Fleet 8,372 1,051 1,168 3,025 1,779 1,202 146
Source: SAB, processed by BCI3
On average, the fleet in Belgium and France consists of smaller vessels because of the
existing network of smaller canals.
Table 2.5 presents the characteristics of the push barges that are being used for convoy
shipments:
Table 2.5 Categorisation of large push barges according to CEMT-classes in 2012
Country Number of vessels IV Va Vb +
Belgium 267 51 196 20
Germany 830 278 552 -
France 548 137 394 17
Luxembourg 2 2 - -
Netherlands 1,214 335 846 33
Switzerland 6 6 - -
Total Fleet 2,867 811 1,975 81
Source: SAB, processed by BCI
Volume and engine power
The CEMT-classes prescribe a normative volume and engine power, but in practice, many
variations exist due to the specific preferences of the ship owners. Ships are custom made,
based on the preferences and the intended operations of the ship owner. That is why the
categories of the ships are not homogenous, but they show variations in engine power, size
and volume. Tables 2.6 and 2.7 present the average volume and engine power for inland
vessels.
3 SAB (Stichting Afvalstoffenvaardocumenten Binnenvaart) provides a database of individual ships
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 16 of 97
Table 2.6 Specifications of motor vessels in the Rhine corridor
CEMT-class No. of vessels Average volume
(tons) Average engine power
(kW)
I 1,051 361 225
II 1,168 540 291
III 3,025 953 475
IV 1,779 1,549 751
Va 1,202 2,768 1,272
Via 146 5,161 2,115
Total 8,372 1,284 621
Source: SAB, processed by BCI
The push barges for convoy transport are categorised in the higher CEMT-classes. For
these vessels, there are no characteristics for the volume. The table 2.7 presents the aver-
age engine power per CEMT-category:
Table 2.7 Specifications of large push barges in the Rhine corridor
CEMT-class No. of vessels Average volume (tons)
Average engine power (kW)
IV 811 1,306 1,555
Va 1,975 2,620 3,709
Vb + 81 4,533 N/A
Total 2,867 2,307 2,262
Source: SAB, processed by BCI
The tables 2.6 and 2.7 present the specifications for the freight carrying fleet. The economic
feasibility for LNG conversion is decided by the ratio between the investments and the lower
operational costs, due to the difference in price level between LNG and diesel. Today’s
standpoint is that the conversion to LNG is especially interesting for the larger freight carry-
ing ships CEMT-class IV and higher), because of a higher annual fuel use. Though, the
actual annual fuel use is determined by the specific fuel use (litres per hour) and the annual
operating hours of the ship. The uptake of LNG in inland shipping will be discussed in sec-
tion 2.4 and 2.5.
To complete the analysis of the specification of vessels, table 2.8 presents the average en-
gine power for the rest of the fleet in the Rhine corridor:
Table 2.8 Specifications of other vessels in the Rhine corridor
Other vessel types No. of vessels Average engine power (kW)
Push boat / Push Tug 1,164 317
Tug 795 397
Passenger 2,359 371
Other 2,650 436
Source: SAB, processed by BCI
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 17 of 97
2.1.4 Operational characteristics
This section will discuss the operational characteristics of IWT vessels, with a focus on fuel
consumption. Diesel is the primary fuel for inland waterway vessels. The usage of other
fuels are, until now, very limited. In this section, fuel use should is equivalent to diesel.
The fuel consumption of a ship depends on various factors, such as the ship design, the
engine and the type of operations (see also chapter 3). The study concentrates on the spe-
cific fuel use of different ship categories and the annual fuel consumption by inland water-
way transport.
Fuel use
First of all, the specific fuel depends on the design of the ship, as well as the engine design.
The engine creates the propulsion to elevate the water resistance of the ship.
Thus, the specific fuel use is related to the energy efficiency of the engine, the efficiency of
the propulsion and the water resistance of the ship. Overall, newer ships are more energy
efficient, because of a better design (shape), which reduces the water resistance of the
ship, more efficient engines and more efficient propellers.
Second, the fuel use depends on the travels the vessel makes. The fuel use for sailing on a
canal differs from sailing on a river, let alone sailing upstream or downstream. Also the wa-
ter level is an important factor, since the propeller of a ship is much more efficient for high
water than for low water. And finally, the loaded volume is an important factor for the fuel
consumption, because of the draught of the ship and the proportionate resistance in the
water.
NEA4 has published the specific fuel use for inland vessels in 2009. The study presents
average fuel use per category, based on an average operation for the load and the type of
waterway. Table 2.9 presents the specific fuel use for different ship types:
Table 2.9 Specific fuel use per CEMT category for motor vessels and convoys
CEMT Specific fuel use (litres/hour)
Motor vessels I 36.8 II 54.0 III 73.3 IVa 139.5 Va 240.8 VIa 327.2 Convoys IVa 123.9 Va 196.7 Vb+ 245.1
Source: NEA, 2009
4 NEA (2009); Cost structure inland waterway transport 2008 (Kostenkengetallen binnenvaart 2008)
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 18 of 97
The specific fuel use increases for the CEMT-categories. The table above shows that the
specific fuel consumption is in line with the average engine power and the size of the ship.
The specific fuel use for combinations is not presented in this table. When operated in a
convoy (motor vessel pushing a push barge), the specific fuel use of the motor vessel will
be higher, due to a higher pay load. For the use of motor vessels in combinations and the
tonnage of the combinations, there is no data available.
Exploitation models
The CCNR distinguishes three exploitation models for inland ships. The exploitation models
prescribe the necessary crew on a ship and the maximum sailing hours per day and per
week. The exploitation model is not permanent, but can be changed during the year by the
ship owner. Depending on the transport demand (availability of cargo) and the destination of
the cargo, the ship owner will change the exploitation category. This means that the exploi-
tation model of a ship changes over time, there is no direct relation between the ship type
and the exploitation model. Table 2.10 presents the maximum sailing hours per exploitation
model.
Table 2.10 Overview of exploitation models for inland shipping
Exploitation model Description Maximum hours per day Estimated hours per year
A1 Day-trip basis 14 hours 3,360 hours
A2 Semi continuous 18 hours 4,752 hours
B Full continuous 24 hours 8,064 hours
Source: NEA, 20095
The total fuel consumption of inland vessels can now be calculated from the following com-
ponents:
1 The specific fuel use per ship type (in tons fuel per hour)
2 The number of ships per ship type (in no. of ships)
3 The number of operating hours per year (operating hours per year)
Since the exact exploitation model of the vessels is unknown (and changes over time), a
bandwidth for the annual fuel use will be calculated. The boundaries for this bandwidth are
defined by the minimum number of operating hours (e.g. full exploitation as day-trip vessels)
and the maximum number of operating hours (e.g. full continuous sailing vessels). The cal-
culation for this bandwidth is presented in table 2.11.
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 19 of 97
Table 2.11 Annual fuel usage of inland shipping, based on three exploitation models (tons x 1,000)
Motor vessels No. of vessels (2012)
Specific fuel use (litres/hour)
Day-trip basis (3,360 hours)
Semi continuous (4,752 hours)
Full continuous (8,064 hours)
I 1,051 37 109 154 261 II 1,168 54 177 251 426 III 3,025 73 624 882 1,497 IVa 1,779 140 698 987 1,675 Va 1,202 241 814 1,151 1,953 VIa 146 327 134 190 322 Convoys 0 0 0 IVa 811 124 283 400 678 Va 1,975 197 1,092 1,545 2,622 Vb+ 81 245 56 79 134
Total 11,238 123* 3,987 5,639 9,569
Source: BCI 2014, (using SAB, IVR and NEA)
*Average fuel use for all categories
The annual fuel use for the inland waterway fleet varies between 4 million and 9.5 million
tons. This bandwidth is based on calculations for the exploitation as a day-trip vessel (low
fuel use per year) or exploitation as a full continuous vessel, and with an estimated number
of operational hours per year (table 2.13) which assumes that all the ships sail almost 90%
of the legally permitted sailing hours.
In case of the lower limit, when all the ships operate with a minimum of operating hours, the
total fuel use will be 4 million tons per year. This assumes a strong underestimation. The
upper limit of 9.5 million tons per year is the result of the maximum operating hours for each
ship, which implies an overestimation. The bandwidth of 4 – 9.5 million tons fuel use can be
narrowed. The vessels operating on day-trip basis are, in general, the smaller ships with
lower fuel use, while the ships with a higher operating profile are, in general, the larger
ships with a higher fuel use. The expected annual fuel use will be 5.5 – 8.5 million tons.
2.1.5 Conclusions
This section describes the development of inland waterway transport, the trends in fleet
development and the fuel consumption of the inland fleet. In recent years, the transported
volume shows a small increase. Nevertheless, the transport volume in 2012 is still 10% un-
der the volume of 2008. Meanwhile, the IWT fleet has expanded, both in the number of ves-
sels and the total volume of the vessels. Finally, the average volume per vessel has in-
creased, due to enlargement of scale.
The fuel consumption of the inland fleet depends on the ship size, the engine power and the
operational characteristics and exploitation of the ship. Based on the available information,
the fuel use for inland vessels in the Rhine corridor is estimated at 5.5-8.5 million tons per
year in 2012. Part of the inland waterway fleet will converse to LNG, in the future. Section
2.4 and 2.5 will focus on the possible use of LNG by the inland vessels.
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 20 of 97
2.2 Current fleet for Short sea shipping
2.2.1 Introduction
This paragraph gives an overview of the developments of short sea vessels and deep sea
vessels with activities in Northern Europe. These vessels are likely to bunker fuels in the
port of Antwerp, Zeebrugge or Rotterdam. The focus lies on the activities of the fleet in
Northern Europe, its development and operational characteristics. The analysis concludes
with an estimation for the annual fuel use of the seagoing fleet with activities in Northern
Europe.
In order to perform this analysis, different sources have been consulted, and data of various
studies has been combined. Table 2.12 below gives a short overview of the literature for
this study.
Table 2.12 Overview of the literature for the analysis of the sea going vessels
Publisher Title Relevant information
UNCTAD Review maritime transport 2013 (2013) Fleet and fleet development
Lloyd’s Register LNG-fuelled deep sea shipping (2012) Fleet and fleet development
DMA North European LNG infrastructure project
(2012)
Fleet active in Northern Europe
Fuel use of fleet in Northern Europe
IMO Updated 2000 study on greenhouse gas emis-
sions from ships (2008)
Engine power main engines and auxilia-
ry engines
Specific fuel use for engines
Recently, an update for the IMO study in Greenhouse gas has been published (June 2014).
This new publication presents new data and adjusted calculation methods for fuel use and
CO2 emission by sea going vessels. Though, the publication from 2008 provides the data,
needed for this study, on specific fuel consumption for different vessel categories.
2.2.2 Trends in fleet development for seagoing vessels
Total size of the fleet; short sea and deep sea
The UNCTAD6 reported a total fleet size of 1.6 billion tonnages (in deadweight tonnage or
dwt) in 2013. According to UNCTAD, the total volume of seagoing vessels increased by
28% between 2010 and 2013. Table 2.13 gives an overview of the total tonnage per ship
type7.
6 UNCTAD (2013); Review maritime transport 2013
7 This increase is not subject to changes in definition
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 21 of 97
Table 2.13 World fleet of sea going vessels; short sea and deep sea (in dwt x 1000)
Principal types 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fleet develop-
ment
2010-2013 (%)
Oil tankers 450,053 474,846 469,516 490,743 9%
Bulk carriers 456,623 532,039 623,006 684,673 50%
General cargo ships 108,232 108,971 80,825 80,345 -26%
Container ships 169,158 183,859 196,853 206,577 22%
Other types: 92,072 96,028 166,667 166,445 81%
• Gas carriers 40,664 43,339 44,060 44,346 9%
• Chemical tankers 7,354 5,849 23,238 23,293 217%
• Off-shore 24,673 33,227 70,767 69,991 184%
• Ferries and passenger ships 6,152 6,164 5,466 5,504 -11%
• Other/n.a. 13,229 7,450 23,137 23,312 76% World total 1,276,137 1,395,743 1,536,868 1,628,783 28%
Source: UNCTAD 2013 (Review of the Maritime transport 2010-2013)
The main increase in the total volume of sea going vessels is caused by the increase of
bulk carriers, oil tankers and container vessels. Furthermore, there is a remarkable growth
in chemical tankers and ships for the off-shore industry. The total volume of ships for gen-
eral cargo decreased by almost 30 million tons. One of the main reasons for this reduction
is the containerisation of goods.
A large part of the world fleet is operating only outside Northern Europe. For an analysis of
the fleet that does operate in European waters, DMA8 presents figures from 2010. Accord-
ing to the DMA study, the world fleet counted approximately 106 thousand ships, with a total
volume of 1.43 billion tonnages (dwt). More than 14,000 ships visit the Emission Control
Area (ECA) in Northern Europe more or less frequently. In conclusion, 13% of the world
fleet visits the ECA in Northern Europe and only 2% of the ships operate solely within this
region. The total volume of the ships that is active in the ECA accounts for 413 million dwt
(29% of the volume of the world fleet)9. Table 2.14 gives an overview of the total world fleet
and the number of ships visiting the ECA in Northern Europe.
Table 2.14 Number of ships of the global fleet and the ships with activities in ECA-Northern Europe; short sea
and deep sea
Ship types
Global
Fleet
Active in
N- Europe
100%
in ECA
50%-99%
in ECA
1%-49% in
ECA
Tanker (LNG tankers
excluded)
14,213 3,105 138 600 2,367
LNG tanker 360 69 3 0 66
Bulker & General Cargo 26,781 5,572 293 1,047 4,232
Container & Ro-Ro 7,410 1,964 190 228 1,546
Passengers 8,392 766 444 105 2,17
Miscellaneous 49,622 2,536 1166 671 699
Total 106,778 14,012 2,234 2,651 9,127
Source: DMA 2012
8 DMA (2012); North European LNG infrastructure project
9 DMA (2012); North European LNG infrastructure project
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 22 of 97
Note that there are inconsistencies in the data on total fleet development: UNCTAD data for
2010 show a total volume of the world fleet of 1.27 billion tonnage (dwt), whereas the DMA
study assumes a total volume of 1.43 billion tons. The difference between both studies ac-
counts 156 million tons (14%) This variety is explained by the used data sources by
UNCTAD and DMA; UNCTAD uses the shipping database, provided by Clarkson, and in-
cludes all ships from 100 GT and above, whereas DMA use AIS data for ship movements in
2010. The UNCTAD study shows more recent data, but does not distinguish the ships that
are active within the North-European ECA.
Age of the fleet
The average age of the world fleet is just over 20 years10. The fleet of General Cargo ships
is, on average, the oldest segment of the fleet with an average age of 22 years; more than
50% of the ships are over 20 years of age. The bulk carriers and container ships represent
the youngest fleet; for both vessel types, 50% of the ships are 0-10 years old. In recent
years, an enlargement of the ship size occurred; 35% of all the ships are 0-10 years old, but
the total volume of these ships exceed 60% of the total volume. The figures 2.11 and 2.12
present the age distribution of the world fleet by number of ships and volume.
10
UNCTAD (2013); Review maritime transport 2013
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 23 of 97
Figure 2.11 Age distribution of the world fleet by number of ships
Source: UNCTAD 2013 (Review of the Maritime transport 2010-2013)
Figure 2.12 Age distribution of the world fleet by volume
Source: UNCTAD 2013 (Review of the Maritime transport 2010-2013)
44
23
12
24
17
20
15
29
11
20
13
15
12
18
7
10
10
10
13
20
12
12
10
12
16
10
58
34
50
44
Bulk carriers
Container ships
General cargo
Oil tankers
Others
All ships
Age distribution of the world fleet by no. of ships
0–4 years 5–9 years 10–14 years 15–19 years 20 + years
49
34
22
37
23
40
16
32
13
28
20
22
11
16
10
20
13
14
13
13
10
10
10
12
11
5
44
4
34
12
Bulk carriers
Container ships
General cargo
Oil tankers
Others
All ships
Age distribution of the fleet by volume (dwt)
0–4 years 5–9 years 10–14 years 15–19 years 20 + years
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 24 of 97
The fleet of bulk carriers showed a rapid growth until 2012. The oil tankers fleet has been
renovated in the nineties, due to the replacement of the single hull vessels by double hull
vessels. The container fleet expanded in the recent decade, due to containerization. This
process of containerization also resulted in the limited replacement of the general cargo
fleet.
2.2.3 Vessel categories and characteristics
The DMA-study11 presents an overview of ships in 75 specific categories, of which 73 cate-
gories are seagoing vessels. The categories describe the type of ship, the size of the ship
(in dead weight tonnage) and specifications for the function of the ship. Table 2.15 gives an
overview of the main categories with a subdivision based on function and further specifica-
tions. Annex 2 gives a complete overview of the ship types, the number of ships in the world
fleet and the number of ships that are active in ECA Northern Europe:
Table 2.15 Categories and type of ships in the DMA database
No. Category Type No. Sub-
categories Specification
1 Tanker (LNG tankers excluded)
Chemical/Products 4 Size by dwt
Crude 5 Size by dwt
LPG 2 Size by cbm
Other tanker 2 Size by dwt
Products 5 Size by dwt
Pure Chemical 4 Size by dwt
2 LNG-tanker* LNG 2 Size by cbm
3 Bulker & General Cargo Bulker 6 Size by dwt
General cargo 5 Size by dwt
Other dry 3 Specials and reefer
4 Container & Ro-ro Container 6 Size by TEU
Ro-ro 2 Size by CEU
Vehicle (PCC) 2 Size by CEU
5 Passenger Ferry 5 Function: Pax/RoPax
Cruise 2 Size by no. of passengers
Yacht 1 6 Miscellaneous Fishing 3 Function: e.g. trawlers
Off shore 8 Function: Drilling, supply, platforms, etc.
Services 11 Function: Tugs, workboats, research
Other 6 Function: e.g. pontoons
Source: DMA 2012
*LNG-tankers are LNG carrying vessels. They form a special category for the in the DMA analysis.
11
DMA (2012); North European LNG infrastructure project
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 25 of 97
Type and function
The active fleet within the Emission Control Area (ECA) in Northern Europe counts just over
14 thousand ships (see also table 2.13). The myriad of the active fleet in Northern Europe
consists of bulk carriers, tankers and container & Ro-ro vessels. Figure 2.13 gives the dis-
tribution of the ship types that are active in Northern Europe. The DMA database gives no
insight in the specific port visits of the ship types.
Figure 2.13 Type of ships in the Northerern European fleet
Source: DMA 2012
The myriad of the ships with activities in ECA-Northern Europe are ships for general cargo
(3,060) and bulk carriers (2,050). Furthermore, the active fleet in Northern Europe consists
of 1,546 chemical tankers and just over 1000 container ships. The service ships and ferries
are mostly dedicated to the ECA. Respectively 61% and 77% of these ship types sail 100%
in the ECA-Northern Europe.
2.2.5 Operational profile and fuel usage
Average sailing days at sea
In 2008, IMO12 has performed a study for emissions by sea going vessels. Based on a
sample of 40.000 ships, they presented an overview of average sailing days per ship type
and the operating hours for the auxiliary engines. Table 2.16 presents the average sailing
and the running days for the auxiliary engine.
12
IMO (2008); Updated 2000 study on greenhouse gas emissions from ships
40%
22% 0,4%
14%
18%
5%
Active ships in ECA-Northern Europe
Bulker & General Cargo Tanker ex LNG LNG tanker
Container & Roro Miscellaneous Passenger
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 26 of 97
Table 2.16 Running days per year for main engine and auxiliary engine
Category
Days at sea (main engines)
Running days auxiliary engines
Tanker (LNG tankers ex-cluded)
211 417
LNG tanker 267 425
Bulker & General Cargo 237 410
Container & Ro-ro 238 437
Passenger 228 360
Miscellaneous 210 360
Source: IMO 2008
Auxiliary engines will be used during manoeuvres with higher risks, for example when enter-
ing a port, and for the operations for pumps, cranes and winches. For the latter operations
(in the port), onshore power supply can be used, which lowers the fuel use by auxiliary en-
gines. During sailing hours, the auxiliary engines supply the on-board electricity, among
others for cargo care (ventilation and refrigeration). Some ships are equipped with more
auxiliary engines, which explain why the number of running days exceeds the number of
days per year. Moreover, the running hours of the auxiliary engines exceed the running
hours of the main engine and form substantial factor for the total fuel use.
Annex 3 provides an overview of the days at sea and the running days for the auxiliary en-
gines per category.
Engine power and fuel use for the analyses of engine power and fuel use, the fleet will be
further categorized, according to their size. This categorization only accounts for cargo car-
riers and not for passenger ships, fishing boats, etcetera. The latter ship categories might
be interesting targets for conversion to LNG, especially passenger ships. The opportunities
of LNG for passenger ships will be addressed in the demand study.
Table 2.17 shows the definition for the categories for the cargo carrying fleet.
Table 2.17 Definition size categories for different ship types (in TEU for container vessels and cbm for all other)
Type of ship Specific function Large Medium Small
Tanker ex LNG Chemical/Products 120,000+ 20,000-60,000
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 27 of 97
Engine power
The main engine in the ship provides the propulsion of the ship. All the ships are equipped
with an auxiliary engine for electricity supply and other services on board; (crude) tankers
are also equipped with a boiler engine to heat the residual oil for the main engine and for
heating and pumping of the cargo.
This section presents an analysis of the engine powers for main engine and auxiliary en-
gines, based on the databases from the DMA-report (2012) and IMO report (2008). Annex 3
provides the complete overview of the engine power (main engine and auxiliary engine) for
each ship type.
Table 2.18 presents the average engine power for the main engine, while table 2.19 pre-
sents the average power for the auxiliary engine:
Table 2.18 Average power of the main engine per ship type and size category (in kW)
Ship type Average of fleet
Large size Medium size Small size
Tanker ex LNG 7,840 20,843 7,135 6,123
LNG tanker 30,957 37,322 24,592
Bulker & General Cargo 6,595 16,166 9,061 3,894
Container & Ro-ro 23,840 68,477 28,190 7,243
Passenger 17,922
Miscellaneous 3,030
Source: IMO 2008
Table 2.19 Average power of the auxiliary engine per ship type and size category (in kW)
Ship type Average of fleet
Large size Medium size Small size
Tanker ex LNG 607 1,133 602 538
LNG tanker 2,910 3,210 2,610
Bulker & General Cargo 453 746 541 339
Container & Ro-ro 1,362 3,081 1,580 659
Passenger 893
Miscellaneous 314
Source: IMO 2008
Container ships, passenger ships and LNG tankers have a relatively high engine power,
because they are designed for a high sailing speed. The reason for this is the desired short
trip time. For container ships, this is because of the high value of the goods and time to
marker, for LNG this is because of the heat losses of the cryogenic tanks and for passen-
gers this is related to the relative high value of time of persons.
The design speed and engine power of new ships are currently in a downward trend. This
has to do with the EEDI (Energy Efficiency Design Index) requirements and the expected
increase in future fuel costs. Also the average ship size is increasing, because energy con-
sumption per ton kilometre and other costs are lower for larger vessels.
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 28 of 97
The power of the auxiliary engines depends largely on the necessary equipment on the
ship. Crude carriers and tanker ships are also equipped with steam boilers. The boilers are
being used to heat up the residual oil for combustion and for cargo heating or pumping of
cargo. LNG carriers also use steam turbines for the propulsion, instead of a combustion
engine. These turbines are being heated up by a boiler system. The IMO study from 2008
presents an estimation of the fuel use for boiler systems, based on the expert meeting13.
Table 2.20 gives an overview of these assumptions for the fuel use of boiler systems:
Table 2.20 Fuel use for boiler engines on tankers
Ship type Volume Fuel use boiler engine
VLCC 200,000+ dwt 250 tons per discharge of the vessel
Suez Max Tankers 120-200,000 dwt 150 tons per voyage
Aframax Tankers
80-120,000 dwt 60 tons per year
Small Crude Tankers 60-79,999 dwt
10-59,999 dwt
< 9,999 dwt
30 tons per day
15 tons per day
5 tons per day
Product tankers
60,000+ dwt 20 -59,999 dwt 10 -19,999 dwt 5 -9,999 dwt -4,999 dwt
60 tons per day
50 tons per day
30 tons per day
15 tons per day
5 tons per day
LNG tankers All 190 tons per day
Source: IMO 2008
Fuel use
The annual fuel use is related to the engine power (main engine and auxiliary engine), the
running days and the energy efficiency of a ship (specific fuel oil consumption, SFOC).
Tables 2.21 and 2.22 present the average energy efficiency for the main engines and the
auxiliary engines (in g fuel / kWh) that has been used for the IMO-study:
Table 2.21 Specific fuel oil consumption for the main engine (in g fuel / kWh)
Engine age Above 15000 kW 15000- 5000 kW Below 5000 kW
< 1983 205 215 225
1984-2000 185 195 205
2001-present 175 185 195
Source: IMO 2008
13
IMO (2007); Revision of the MARPOL Annex VI and the NOx technical code - Input from the four subgroups
and individual experts to the final report of the Informal Cross Government/Industry Scientific Group of Ex-
perts
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 29 of 97
Table 2.22 Specific fuel oil consumption for the auxiliary engine (in g fuel / kWh)
Engine age Above 800 kW Below 800
Any 230 245
Source: IMO 2008
The DMA study presents the fuel use in ECA in Northern Europe. For this calculation, the
specific fuel uses were calculated for each category and for different age-categories. Table
2.23 presents the total fuel use for main engines and auxiliary engines in 2010:
Table 2.23 Fuel use per year for ship types and size categories (in tons x 1,000 per year)
Ship type Fuel use Large size Medium size Small size Unspeci-
fied
Tanker ex LNG 2,487 103 788 1,572 24
LNG tanker 38 0 38 0 0
Bulker & General Cargo 2,343 19 404 1,675 245
Container & Ro-ro 5,254 460 1,744 1,219 1,831
Passenger 416 0 0 0 416
Miscellaneous 902 0 0 0 902
Total in ECA – North Europe 11,440 583 2,973 4,465 3,419
Source: DMA 2012
2.2.6 Conclusions
In section 2.2, the fleet of seagoing vessels that are active in Northern Europe has been
described. The number of seagoing vessels with activities in Northern Europe consists of
14,021 ships. This part of the fleet is likely to bunker their fuel in the ports of Zeebrugge,
Antwerp or Rotterdam, as part of the Rhine corridor.
Furthermore, the paragraph describes the annual fuel use of seagoing vessels, and particu-
larly the vessels with activities in Northern Europe. The estimated fuel consumption is
based on the engine power per ship type and the sailing hours. The total fuel use for the
ships that were active in Northern Europe is estimated at 11 million tons fuel (MGO and
HFO) in 2010.
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 30 of 97
2.3 Prognosis for fleet development
2.3.1 Development of inland shipping
Transport volume
The development of the volume for inland waterway transport depends on the development
of the transport demand, both sea port related and continental transport and, second, on the
market share for IWT (modal split). TNO has developed different scenarios for inland wa-
terway transport until the year 210014. These long term scenarios are determined from two
variables for economic developments (high growth and low growth) and the interest in sus-
tainable development (moderate climate change and accelerated climate change). Figure
2.14 explains the points of departure for the scenarios.
Figure 2.14 Variables for scenario development
Source: TNO, 2010
Figure 2.15 below presents the development for inland waterway transport for these scenar-
ios for the period 2010-2050, based on the transported volume of 2010.
14
TNO (2012); Shipping scenarios for the delta programme (Scheepsscenario’s voor het Deltaprogramma)
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 31 of 97
Figure 2.15 Scenarios for transport volume by IWT on the Rhine between 2010 and 2050
Source: TNO, 2010
The assumptions for economic growth correspond to the long term scenarios, developed by
the Central Planning Office of the Netherlands in 2006. The high economic growth in these
scenarios is estimated at 2.1% per year, while the low economic growth is 1.2% per year.
The economic development explains the total transport demand within the Hamburg – Le
Havre range.
The assumptions for climate change are based on the long term scenarios by the Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013), which have been translated to the
Dutch/ Northern European situation by the Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI). These
scenarios describe the expected water level in the Rhine delta, which affect the opportuni-
ties for inland waterway transport within the Rhine corridor.
Furthermore, the scenarios assume modal shift from road transport to more sustainable
modes of transport (rail and inland shipping). This modal shift is (partly) the result of the
European policies to stimulate multimodal transport within the EU.
TNO presents transport development in lower and higher volume scenarios. The bandwidth
for the high growth scenarios is 302 - 322 million tons per year in 2050. This means an av-
erage annual growth of 1.6 to 1.8% per year. The bandwidth for the low growth scenario is
between 240 and 255 million tons per year, with an average annual growth between 0.7 to
0.9%.
150
350
550
750
950
1150
1350
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Tra
nsp
ort
ed
vo
lum
e I
WT
(in
to
ns
x m
illi
on
) Transport volumes for inland waterway
Steam Pressure Warm Calm
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 32 of 97
Prognosis of the IWT fleet
Due to the expansion of the total fleet in 2008 and 2009 and the enlargement of the ships,
there is an over capacity of the volume for inland waterway transport. TNO ea.15 estimated
an overcapacity of 300 million tons for inland waterway transport on the Rhine in 2010. Re-
lated to the scenarios for the transport demand for inland waterway, a shortage of the avail-
able capacity is only expected for the high growth scenario after 2040 (see figure 2.16).
Figure 2.16 Transported volumes on the Rhine 2010-2050
Source: TNO 2010, TNO 2012
New ships can be delivered within three years; this means that there is no urgency for fur-
ther expansion of the fleet. Though, most of the ships are rather old and do not comply with
the emission norms of CCR-2. At the European level, the discussion has started to enforce
a new scrapping scheme for the older vessels. The purpose of this scheme is to accelerate
the modernization of the inland waterway fleet. The exact figures of the effect of these pro-
grammes are at the moment not available. Furthermore, little is known about the installation
of new engines or (SCR) catalysts.
15
TNO ea. (2012); Multimodal international container network (Multimodaal internationaal container netwerk)
150
350
550
750
950
1150
1350
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tra
nsp
ort
vo
lum
e IW
T (
in t
on
s x
millio
n)
Transport volumes for inland waterway
Steam Pressure Warm Calm Over capacity (2010)
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 33 of 97
Prognosis of the IWT fuel use
The total transported volume in 2012 by inland waterway transport was almost 700 million
tons, while the total fuel use of the inland waterway vessels has been estimated 5.5 – 8.5
million tons. The main driver for the future fuel use by inland waterway vessels is the ex-
pected transport volume.
Table 2.24 presents the estimated fuel use for the future years, related to the prognosis for
fuel use as presented in figure 2.16.
Table 2.14 Development of fuel use by inland vessels 2012-2035 (in million tons)
2012 2015 2020 2035
Lower band 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.6
Upper band 8.5 9.0 9.8 12.0
Source: BCI (2014) based on TNO (2012)
The band width calculated for the fuel use in 2035 ranges from 6.6 million tons to 12.0 mil-
lion tons. This widening band width is due to the combination of the estimated bandwidth for
the fuel use in 2012 (5.5-8 million tons) in combination with the diverging scenarios for the
transported volume.
The expected enlargement of the ships, in combination with the technical improvement of
vessel engines will diminish the fuel use. Thus, the expected fuel use in the future will curve
down to the lower band. On the other hand, persistent lower water levels will result in lower
capacity use and a higher fuel use per tonnage.
2.3.2 Development of seagoing transport and short sea
UNCTAD reports an overall growth of the volume of the world fleet of 28% between 2010
and 2013. This growth is directly related to an increase in international trade and the de-
mand for oversea transport of goods. Just like with IWT, the response of total fleet devel-
opment to economic changes is in delay. An illustration: The downturn on the demand for
transport volume in 2008 lead to a decline of orders for new ships in 2009. Meanwhile, the
fleet still increased. Only from 2012 onwards, the number of new deliveries starts to decline.
The DMA study explains the changes in the world fleet by expansion of the fleet and by
replacements of the older vessels. The expansion of the fleet is estimated at 2% per year,
while the replacement of older vessels is estimated at 2% per year, as well. According to
these estimations, the total fleet will increase by 35% between 2010 and 2025, due to an
increase of the average ship size. For the fleet with activities in the ECA in Europe, the ex-
pected number of vessels in 2025 is nearly 19,000.
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 34 of 97
Lloyd’s Register16 estimated an expected fleet development of 35% between 2011 and
2020 and a further growth of 18% between 2020 and 2025, measured in gross tonnage.
In 2007, an IMO17 expert group estimated the fleet development between 2006 and 2020. In
their estimations, they distinguish the fleet development for different ship types and size
categories. The average annual growth of the total fleet was estimated 3.7% per year.
The DNV study18 presents two different scenarios for the development of the fleet. The
higher growth scenario estimates an increase of the fleet between 50-60% between 2012
and 2020, whereas the lower growth scenario presents a growth of 25-30% for the same
period. The expected annual growth for the high and low scenario is respectively 6% and
3%. Applied to the fleet size according to Lloyd’s in 2012, the absolute increase of the
ocean going fleet is 560-280.
The studies of DMA, Lloyd’s register, DNV and IMO present the fleet developments for dif-
ferent time horizons. Figure 2.17 illustrates the estimated fleet development for these stud-
ies from 2010 until 2020/2025.
Figure 2.172 Expected fleet development 2010-2025
Source: Lloyd’s Register, DMA, DNV, IMO
16
Lloyd’s Register (2012); LNG-fuelled deep sea shipping 17
IMO (2007); Revision of the MARPOL Annex VI and the NOx technical code - Input from the four subgroups and individual experts to the final report of the Informal Cross Government/Industry Scientific Group of Ex-perts
18 DNV (2012); Shipping 2020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Fle
et
vo
lum
e (
dw
t in
to
ns x
millio
n)
Year
Development of fleet volume 2010-2025
Dev. gross tonnage Lloyd's (world fleet) Dev. dead weight tonnage DMA (ECA fleet)
Dev. dead weight tonnage DMA (world fleet) Dev. gross tonnage IMO (2007)
Dev. gross tonnage DNV (high) Dev. gross tonnage DNV (low)
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 35 of 97
Lloyd’s, DMA and the IMO expert group present comparable growth figures until 2020/2025
(2-4% per year). The replacement rate of older vessels is estimated at 2%, but could turn
out to be a little higher in reality. The economic lifetime of a ship is 25-30 years, but the ac-
tual life time is much longer. The life time of the ships might go down, because innovations
and enlargement of the ship size require an accelerated depreciation rate. Consequently,
the rate of new built vessels lies between 4-7% per year.
Expected fuel use by sea going vessels
The fuel use will be estimated, based on the development of transport demand, the fleet
size and the characteristics of the fleet.
First of all, the sea going fleet with transport activities in Northern Europe consisted of 14
thousand ships. The total fuel consumption of this part of the fleet is estimated at 11 million
tons fuel (mostly MDO/MGO and HFO). For the future years, the ocean going fleet will ex-
pand with, approximately, 2-4% per year, due to an increase in international trade. Further-
more, the replacement rate of the ships varies from 2-3% per year. Table 2.25 presents the
upper and lower bound for the development of the fleet size:
Table 2.253 Upper and lower bound for fleet development sea going vessels
2012 2015 2020 2035
Lower band 14,021 14,879 16,428 22,110
Upper band 14,021 15,772 19,189 34,558
Source: Lloyd’s Register, DMA, DNV, IMO
For the period 2012-2035, the fleet will expand from 14 thousand ships to 22 – 35 thousand
ships. On average, the number of new built ships is 700-1560 per year. This estimation is
based on an increase in transport demand in Northern Europe. The expansion of the fleet
will result in a growing fuel use for sea going vessels (2-4% per year), but there are more
aspects that influence the fuel use.
The increase of the ship size and the replacement of the ships will affect the composition of
the fleet significantly. The average ship size will increase, due to enlargement of the ships.
Also the composition of the fleet will develop strongly. The growth segments for sea going
vessels are mainly product tankers, LNG (gas) tankers and container ships, while share of
crude tankers, dry bulk ships and general cargo ships will decrease. Notable is that the
ships in the growth segments have a relatively high specific fuel use, which will result in a
higher fuel use per transported ton.
Finally, improving engine technologies, ship design and naval architecture increase the en-
ergy efficiency of the ships. In this regard, the IMO has adopted the EEDI and the Ship En-
ergy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP), to impose the sector to decrease the energy
use. DNV has performed a study to assess the effect of EEDI and SEEMP for fuel use and
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 36 of 97
CO2-emissions. The expected result of the EEDI and SEEMP is a decrease in fuel usage
up to 10-40% for an individual ship19.
Although energy efficiency of the ships increases, the overall fuel use by sea going vessels
is expected to grow. DNV (2011) concludes that the fuel use by the world fleet will increase
by 40-70% for the period 2010-2035, even when energy efficiency measures have been
implemented. The calculations have been performed for the high growth and a low growth
scenario, in accordance with the IPCC-scenarios. Table 2.26 presents the development of
the fuel use from the DNV-study for the sea going fleet with activities in Northern Europe:
Table 2.264 Bandwidth for the fuel use of the sea going vessels in Northern Europe 2012-2035
2012 2015 2020 2035
EEDI/SEEMP - High
growth 11.0 11.6 12.7
18.7
EEDI/SEEMP - Low
growth 11.0 11.5 12.4 15.5
Source: BCI, 2014
The expected fuel consumption for the sea going vessel with activities in Northern Europe is
expected to grow at the same pace as the fuel consumption of the world fleet. Table 2.28
shows that the fuel use of these ships varies from 15.5-18.7 million tonnes in 2035. The
main driver for the increasing fuel consumption is the increasing transport demand. Due to
the energy efficiency schemes for the shipping industry, the increase in fuel use will be
curbed.
2.4 Current and expected LNG fleet in IWT and
Short Sea Shipping
In this section an overview is given of the current and expected LNG fleet in Inland Water
Transport (IWT) and Short Sea Shipping (SSS)20. The following subsections display the
amount of LNG propelled vessels for IWT and SSS in the regions of the Rhine corridor and
in North West Europe. Although their propulsion makes use of LNG, LNG carriers are not
specifically treated in this study.
Globally there are about 370 LNG carriers in operation, of which 260 have steam turbines
able of burning Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) or boil-off gas. Another 60 LNG carriers are equipped
as dual-fuel. 21
19
DNV, 2011; Assessment of IMO mandated energy efficiency measures for international shipping 20
In section 2.3 information is given on the total fleet in IWT and SSS, this section is focusing on the vessels
using LNG for propulsion of the vessel 21
Visser, A. (2012), World Fleet of LNG Carriers. ABB (2014), Reference list LNG carriers.
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 37 of 97
The following table presents an overview of sources used in this analysis.
Table 2.27 Overview of the literature for the analysis on current and expected LNG fleet in IWT and Short Sea
Shipping
Publisher Title Relevant information
CCNR LNG IWT Project Database (2014) Database of current and planned LNG
vessels in IWT
DNV LNG for Shipping – Current status (2014) Database of current and planned LNG
vessels in Maritime shipping
DLH (ea) LNG as an alternative fuel for the operation of
ships and heavy-duty vehicles (2014)
Forecast for LNG usage in IWT and
SSS
Panteia (ea) Contribution to Impact Assessment of
measures for reducing emissions of inland
navigation (2013)
Forecast for LNG usage in IWT
SER Duurzame Brandstofvisie met LEF: Deelrapport
Brandstoftafel Scheepvaart
Forecast for LNG usage in IWT and
Maritime
Lloyd’s Register LNG-fuelled deep sea shipping (2012) Forecast for LNG usage in Maritime
shipping
DMA North European LNG infrastructure project
(2012)
Forecast for LNG usage in Maritime
shipping
PWC Updated 2000 study on greenhouse gas emis-
sions from ships (2008)
Forecast for LNG usage in Maritime
shipping
2.4.1 LNG propelled IWT vessels
The number of current and expected LNG propelled IWT vessels in the Rhine Corridor are
displayed in the following table. The number of LNG-fuelled IWT ships is limited. Currently,
only 4 LNG propelled IWT vessels are operating in Europe, 14 more are either in production
or in planning. Of the 4 LNG propelled IWT vessels in Europe, all four operate on the Rhine
and Belgian and Dutch Inland Waterways. Of the 14 LNG propelled IWT vessels in produc-
tion or in planning, nine will operate on the Rhine. The other five ships will operate on the
Northern German Waterways or on the Danube. The four ships that are currently in use sail
between the seaports and the inland ports along the Rhine22:
The MS Argonon sails between Rotterdam and Antwerp and storage depots in the
Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Switzerland. Bunkering is done in the Seaports.
Greenstream and Green Rhine sail exclusively for one client between Rotterdam and
storage depots along the Rhine (up to Basel). Bunkering is performed in Rotterdam.
The MS Eiger sails between ports in the upper Rhine area (Mannheim, Strasbourg /
Kehl, Ottmarsheim and Basel / Weil) and the seaports Antwerp and Rotterdam. It is un-
known where the ships bunker.
It is currently unknown where on the Rhine the planned ships will sail.
Most ships currently sailing on LNG are chemical tankers. The ships that are planned or in
production are more diverse in nature. About half are again tankers, but the newly devel-
22
Source: CCNR 2014 and websites companies.
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 38 of 97
oped ships also involve some container and Ro-ro vessels. All current vessels and most of
the planned vessels are partly financed by a public authority.23
Table 2.28 Currently operating and planned IWT vessels with LNG
Ship Ship type Engine type Engine power
propulsion
Delivered 2014 [kW] MTS Argonon Chemical Tanker 2x Caterpillar 2,500 Greenstream Chemical Tanker 4x Scania 300 kW 1,200 Green Rhine Chemical Tanker 4x Scania 300 kW 1,200 Eiger Container Vessel 2x Wärtsilä 6L20DF 2,200 Planned/ in production
Damen River Tanker 1145 EcoLiner 1x Caterpillar 1,250 Multi-purpose Ro-Ro Ro-Ro Unspecified 1,200 I-Tankers 1403 and 1404 Chemical Tanker Unspecified 1,320 Combined tanker LNG-MGO Tanker Unspecified 1,320 LNG Tanker Chemical Tanker 1 x Wärtsilä 8L20DF 1,400 LNG Inland Tankers Chemical Tanker 1 x Wärtsilä 8L20DF 1,320 LNG Future Pusher Pusher Unspecified 1,320 Sirocco Chemical Tanker Unspecified 1,320 Gas-electric Container Vessel LNG SI-electric 1,200
Source: CCNR (2014)
Although much has been written on the introduction of LNG in IWT, there are only a few
concrete forecasts on the uptake of LNG as a fuel type:
In a recent study for the Dutch Fuel Vision for 2050, experts in IWT were consulted on
their expectations for LNG uptake. They ranged the possible LNG uptake between 9%
and 25% (SER 2014).
In a recent impact assessment led by Panteia on greening of Inland Navigation, LNG
was included as a measure for a stage 5 emission level (NOx 0.4 g/kWh, PM 0.01
g/kWh). LNG was found to be suitable for application in newly built vessels exceeding
110 m in length with a capacity of 2,750 ton or more, and in push boats with an engine
power exceeding 2000 kW. Conversion to LNG is further economical for vessels ex-
ceeding 135 m (or approx. 5000 t). In this scenario, uptake could amount for as much as
50% of all capacity.
Based on the above mentioned Impact Assessment, DLR ea. developed two scenarios for
LNG uptake. The study considers LNG to be a viable option for new build vessels of with a
capacity of 2,500 ton or more.
In a moderate scenario, 50% of new build ships larger than 2,500 t between 2014 and
2030 with LNG will be equipped with LNG. Furthermore, 10% of the container and tank-
er fleet (larger than 2,500t) will be retrofitted. Total share of LNG is 15% in 2030.
In an Accelerated scenario, 75% of new build ships larger than 2,500 t between 2014
and 2030 with LNG will be equipped with LNG. Furthermore, 50% of the container and
tanker fleet (larger than 2,500t) and 24% of the existing freighters will be retrofitted. To-
tal share of LNG in 2030 is 30%.
23
Source: CCNR 2014. It is unknown for which part of the total investments were financed by public sources.
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 39 of 97
The following table presents an overview of different forecasts for LNG uptake in 2015,
2020 and 2035. Please note that most forecasts only take into account shares for the years
2020 and 2030. The numbers presented in below table therefore consist of extrapolations of
forecasts mentioned in the studies.
Table 2.29 Scenarios for LNG uptake in 2015, 2020 and 2035
LNG share 2015 2020 2035
Minimum 0% 4% 12%
Maximum 0% 15% 50%
Average 0% 7% 34%
Source: Calculations TNO based on CCNR 2014, SER (2014), Panteia ea. (2013) and DLR ea. (2014)
The forecast includes both new built and retrofit vessels, and no division is available. Ex-
pectations by experts is that retrofitting IWT vessels to LNG will be most suitable for push
barges, partly because installing an LNG tank will not influence the loading capacity of the
vessel, and because these vessels have a high fuel usage (see chapter 3). The demand for
retrofit and new built will be further discussed in the Demand Study.
2.4.2 LNG propelled SSS vessels
According to recent figures from DNV (2014), the number of LNG-fuelled vessels is ex-
pected to increase rapidly. The currently global operational LNG fleet in consists of 48 ves-
sels. Another 50 vessels are scheduled for delivery by the end of 2018, see figure 2.18.
Figure 2.18 Current and expected development of LNG-fuelled fleet, excluding LNG carriers and inland
barges
Source: DNV (2014)
As shown in Figure 2.19, the largest share of this fleet is dominated by regional ferries, pa-
trol vessels and platform supply vessels (PSV). Taking the planned ships into account (situ-
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 40 of 97
ation of the year 2018), more than 60% of the LNG-fuelled vessels belong to this group of
vessels. However, it is also observed that a growing share of the LNG vessels is expected
for container ships, general cargo ships, chemical tanker as well as Ro-ro and RoPax.
Figure 2.19 Breakdown of LNG-fuelled fleet by vessel type for the current and planned fleet (short) sea ship-
ping
Source: DNV, 2014
Due to stricter emission control regulations, the largest number of these LNG ships is ex-
pected to be concentrated in Europe and North America. LNG-fuelled ships are especially
beneficial in ECA regions. In the order books, it is confirmed that the majority of the LNG-
fuelled ships (approx. 56) will operate in Norway and the Baltic Sea. Vessels from Norway
are partly financed through a NOX fund. The NOX fund supported to cover 80% of the addi-
tional investment costs for installing an LNG vessel. Precondition for subsidy was that ves-
sels only operate in Norwegian waters. In total, 49 vessels are partly financed by the NOx
fund.24
All vessels currently sailing in Europe, and most of the ships in development, are owned by
Norwegian carriers, and are primarily sailing in the Baltic area. About 11 vessels in devel-
opment are owned by other ship owners that are primarily based in the North Sea area.
24
NHO (2013), The Norwegian NOx Fund – how does it work and results so far
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 41 of 97
Figure 2.20 Breakdown of European LNG-fuelled fleet by country of operator
Source: TNO calculations based on DNV 2014
Narrowing on the Rhine area
Based on the type of vessel and the owner of the vessels a selection was made of ships
that are relevant for the Rhine area. The selection was made based on the country of op-
erator and the vessel type. Firstly, ships operating in US were excluded. The vessels oper-
ating under US flag are relative small Ro-ro ships, and are assumed to sail short sea in US
waters. For the other (European) ships, service vessels (such as patrol vessels, icebreakers
or PSV) and the main part of the passenger ferries were excluded from the analysis. These
vessels all sail under Norwegian (or Finnish) flag and are assumed to sail mainly in Norwe-
gian waters. The other vessels are assumed to sail between different ports in the North-
European area and were thus deemed relevant for the analysis. These ships sum up to 22
short sea vessels (see Table 2.30).
Table 2.30 Existing and planned LNG fuelled vessels relevant to the Rhine area.
Current Planned
Car/passenger ferry 4 Ro-Ro 4 General Cargo 2 2 LPG carrier 3 Chemical tanker 2 Gas carrier 2 Container Ship 2 Product tanker 1
Total 2 20
Source: TNO assumption based on DNV 2014
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 42 of 97
Estimates up to 2035
Forecasts for LNG uptake in sea shipping vary significantly and are largely dependent on
several drivers which will be discussed in chapter 3. Table 2.31 presents an overview of
LNG penetration in shipping (dwt). Many sources such as DNV (2012), SER (2014) and
Lloyds (2012) foresee an exponential growth path for LNG uptake. The uptake however is
largely dependent on drivers such as the price difference between LNG and diesel, which is
discussed in chapter 3.
Table 2.31 Scenarios for LNG uptake until 2030 for short sea shipping
2015 2020 2035
Minimum (PWC, 2012 frozen scenario) 0% 1% 4% Maximum (DMA) 0% 15% 40% Average 0% 5% - 8% 20% - 26%
Sources: TNO calculations based on DNV (2012), Lloyds (2012), PWC (2013), SER (2014)
2.5 Current and expected LNG use per vessel cate-
gory
2.5.1 Current and expected LNG use for IWT
Using information on the LNG propelled vessels from section 2.4 about the current fleet
calculations were made on the total fuel usage of LNG propelled vessels. This calculation is
based on:
the engine size of the vessel;
the average power usage of the engine (60% to 80% depending on the ship type);
the energy efficiency of the engine (roughly 40%);
the total operating hours of the motor of the vessel (4,700 for semi-continue operations
and 6,000 for continued usage);
the energy content of the fuel (49 MJ per kg LNG).
Table 2.32 presents the outcome of the analysis. In the Rhine corridor currently approxi-
mately 4 kton LNG per year is used by Inland Navigation. Including the planned capacity
this increases to 10 kton. This fuel usage is only a fraction of the total fuel consumption in
the Rhine Area (5.5 to 8.5 million. ton).
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 43 of 97
Table 2.32 LNG usage by inland vessels for the current and planned fleet
Ship Ship type Engine type Total LNG usage
Delivered 2014 [ton]
MTS Argonon Chemical Tanker 2x Caterpillar 1,439
Greenstream Chemical Tanker 4x Scania 300 kW 592
Green Rhine Chemical Tanker 4x Scania 300 kW 592
Eiger Container Vessel 2x Wartsila 6L20DF 1,616
Total 2014
4,239
Planned/ in production
Damen River Tanker 1145 EcoLiner 1x Caterpillar 700
Multi-purpose Ro-ro Ro-Ro Unspecified 504
I-Tankers 1403 and 1404 Chemical Tanker Unspecified 651
Combined tanker LNG-MGO Tanker Unspecified 651
LNG Tanker coaster Chemical Tanker 1 x Wärtsilä 8L20DF 691
LNG Inland Tankers Chemical Tanker 1 x Wärtsilä 8L20DF 651
LNG Future Pusher Pusher Unspecified 651
Sirocco Chemical Tanker Unspecified 651
Gas-electric Container Vessel LNG SI-electric 504
Total
5,654
Total 2014 and planned 9,893
Source: TNO calculations based on CCNR 2014
In the forecast on LNG uptake, no information is given on the average size of the vessel. A
first calculation of the total LNG usage up to 2035 based on the range for total fuel usage
from section 2.3 and the different uptake scenario’s from section 2.4 is presented in the
table below. As shown in table, the range is enormous: for the year 2035 it ranges from 0.8
to 6.0 ton.
Table 2.33 Expected LNG usage by IWT for the years 2015, 2020 and 2035 (mln ton)
LNG share 2015 2020 2035
Minimum 0 0.2- 0.4 0.8- 1.4
Maximum 0.0 0.9- 1.5 3.3- 6
Average 0.0 0.4- 0.7 2.2- 4.1
Source: TNO calculation based on TNO (2012), CCNR (2014), SER (2014), Panteia ea. (2013),
DLR (2014), DNV (2012), Lloyds (2012), PWC (2013)
2.5.2 Current and expected LNG use for Short Sea Shipping
The LNG usage for short sea shipping is calculated using the same methodology as Inland
Shipping. As shown in the table, the fuel usage differs extensively per type of vessel.
Smaller service vessels (tug boats, patrol vessels) use significantly less fuel (1,000 to 1,200
ton per year) than for instance short sea container vessels or chemical tankers (around
6,000 ton per year).
Buck Consultants International / Pace Global / TNO 44 of 97
Table 2.34 LNG usage for selected ships for different short sea shipping types
Ship type
Engine power
propulsion
Average power (incl.
aux. power)
Days at sea Operation
Engine efficiency
Fuel energy LNG consumption
[kW] [%] [hrs/year] [%] [MJ/hr] [kg/hr] [ton/year]
Car/passenger ferry 4,400 30% 350 8,400 44% 10,800 220 1,851
PSV 4,400 30% 350 8,400 44% 10,800 220 1,851
Patrol vessel 4,000 30% 200 4,800 44% 9,818 200 962
General Cargo 2,500 70% 200 4,800 44% 14,318 292 1,403
RoPax 8,400 60% 300 7,200 44% 41,236 842 6,059
Container Ship 12,000 70% 200 4,800 48% 63,000 1,286 6,171
Ro-ro 5,400 50% 300 7,200 44% 22,