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Chapter 4

Chapter 4Understanding Interest Rates 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 1Why are interest rates?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pod73wrvdSQ&list=PLgLzhdC3EzlJb3Ws4zfjUtmmWtCFzlWD-

2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# What are Cash Flows?Different streams of cash payments to the holders of debt instruments (e.g. Bonds, Annuities, etc.) 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# Measuring Interest RatesWhat is the Present Value?Would you rather have money today or tomorrow?A dollar paid to you one year from now is less valuable than a dollar paid to you todayWhy?A dollar deposited today can earn interest and become $1 x (1+i) one year from today. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 4Discounting the Future

2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 5Simple (Loan) Present Value

2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 6Quick Check!Whats the PV of a Loan that has to be paid ($250) in two years, if the interest rate is 15%?

PV = $250 / (1 + 0.15) = $250 /1.3225 == $ 189.04 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# Time Line$100$100Year01PV1002$100$100n100/(1+i)100/(1+i)2100/(1+i)nCannot directly compare payments scheduled in different points in the time line 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# Four Types of Credit Market InstrumentsSimple LoanE.g. Commercial loans to businessesFixed Payment LoanMortgagesCoupon BondA Bond that pays a coupon (interest) every year or every 6 monthsDiscount BondAlso called, Zero-coupon bondDoes not pay a coupon (interest)Always issued at a Discount ( < $1,000) 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 9Yield to MaturityThe interest rate that equates the present value of cash flow payments received from a debt instrument with its value today 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 10Differences/SimilaritiesSimple loans and discount bonds make payment ONLY at their maturity dates.

Fixed-payment loans and coupon bonds have payments periodically until maturity 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# Simple Loan

2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 12Fixed Payment Loan

2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 13Coupon Bond

2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 14Table 1 Yields to Maturity on a 10%-Coupon-Rate Bond Maturing in Ten Years (Face Value = $1,000)When the coupon bond is priced at its face value, the yield to maturity equals the coupon rateYour book (confusing): The price of a coupon bond and the yield to maturity are negatively related. My own opinion: Price of a coupon bond and YTM have an inverse relationshipThe yield to maturity is greater than the coupon rate when the bond price is below its face value

2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 15Consol or PerpetuityA bond with no maturity date that does not repay principal but pays fixed coupon payments forever

For coupon bonds, this equation gives the current yield, an easy to calculate approximation to the yield to maturity 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 16Discount Bond

2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 17The Distinction Between Interest Rates and Returns

Rate of Return: 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 18The Distinction Between Interest Rates and Returns (contd)The return equals the yield to maturity only if the holding period equals the time to maturityA rise in interest rates is associated with a fall in bond prices, resulting in a capital loss if time to maturity is longer than the holding periodThe more distant a bonds maturity, the greater the size of the percentage price change associated with an interest-rate change 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 19The Distinction Between Interest Rates and Returns (contd)The more distant a bonds maturity, the lower the rate of return that occurs as a result of an increase in the interest rateEven if a bond has a substantial initial interest rate, its return can be negative if interest rates rise 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 20Table 2 One-Year Returns on Different-Maturity 10%-Coupon-Rate Bonds When Interest Rates Rise from 10% to 20%

2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 21Interest-Rate RiskPrices and returns for long-term bonds are more volatile than those for shorter-term bondsThere is no interest-rate risk for any bond whose time to maturity matches the holding period 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 22The Distinction Between Real and Nominal Interest RatesNominal interest rate makes no allowance for inflationReal interest rate is adjusted for changes in price level so it more accurately reflects the cost of borrowingEx ante real interest rate is adjusted for expected changes in the price levelEx post real interest rate is adjusted for actual changes in the price level 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 23Fisher Equation

2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 24Figure 1 Real and Nominal Interest Rates (Three-Month Treasury Bill), 19532011

Sources: Nominal rates from www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H15 and inflation from ftp://ftp.bis.gov/special.requests/cpi/cpia.txt. The real rate is constructed using the procedure outlined in Frederic S. Mishkin, The Real Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 15 (1981): 151200. This procedure involves estimating expected inflation as a function of past interest rates, inflation, and time trends and then subtracting the expected inflation measure from the nominal interest rate. 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-# 25Problems AssignedPage 91: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 12

Enjoy this Homework! We will go over them during next class!

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2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 4-#