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Liverpool City Region Local Enterprise Partnership Invitation to Tender

for

Liverpool City Region Econometric Forecasts

8th February 2016

Contents

Section Page

1. INTRODUCTION Background and summary/overview of requirements

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2. SPECIFICATION OF REQUIREMENTS A description of requirements, specifications and criteria to be met

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3. FORMAT OF TENDER How the tender is to be structured and how any proposal is to be presented

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4. EXAMINATION AND EVALUATION OF TENDERS Indicates the basis on which the contract will be awarded, how tenders will be examined and criteria under which they will be evaluated

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5. GENERAL CONDITIONS OF TENDER Generally sets out conditions relating to such matters as the need for tax compliance, freedom of information and data protection provisions, conflict of interest, intellectual property, latest time for submission of tender, etc.

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APPENDICES

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1. Introduction 1.1 Background and Summary of Requirements:

The Liverpool City Region Local Enterprise Partnership (LCR LEP) of 12 Princes Parade, Liverpool, L3

1BG now invites tenders for the delivery of Liverpool City Region Econometric Forecasts.

Date: To be delivered end of April/beginning of May

Location: UK – Liverpool City Region

A detailed specification of requirements is set out in Section 2. Tenders must comply with the

format of tender as set out in Section 3.

1.2 Financial Arrangements

Payment for services covered by this invitation to tender will be on the submission of appropriate

invoices, subject to LCR LEP’s standard payment terms, and which will be based on agreed

deliverables. Invoicing arrangements will be agreed with the successful service provider, following

the award of contract.

1.3 Further Information and Query Handling

Every effort has been made to ensure that this documentation contains all the necessary

information for completion of tenders. However, in the interests of equity, requests for additional

information, clarification on the content of this document and all other queries of substance (other

than in relation to purely factual or procedural matters) must be made by email. Any additional

information elicited will be made available to all potential tenderers who have obtained a copy of

this document via LCR LEP’s website www.liverpoollep.org.

Any queries should be submitted by email only, not later than 17.30 on 19th February 2016

addressed to:

Name: Nicola Christie

E-mail: Nicola.Christie@liverpoollep.org

1.4 Timetable

The timetable in relation to this tender process is as follows:

Latest time and date for receipt of tenders 17.30 on 19th February 2016

Award of contract – anticipated 14th March 2016

Dates of award of contract may change.

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2. Specification of Requirements

2.1 Background Information

The Liverpool City Region Local Enterprise Partnership was created in 2012 to bring together

businesses and civic leaders to drive private sector led growth and job creation. The LEP works with

City Region partners to identify how current assets can be exploited for further economic growth. Its

role is to provide a clear focus on priorities and interventions for the long term. The LEP fully

engages with government on key policy issues and commissions market intelligence and research,

where required, to inform the City Region’s evidence base.

Over the last 15 years Liverpool City Region has improved its economic and social performance, and

raised its ambitions and achievements. However significant challenges remain. The City Region’s rise

has been from a low baseline, and at the same time other areas have improved. The recession has

had an impact, along with government’s deficit reduction measures. Liverpool City Region is not

where it wants or needs to be yet.

Challenges faced by the Liverpool City Region:

Wealth Gap – GVA per capita only ¾ of the national average

Job Gap – low employment, high unemployment, especially young people, low jobs density

Lower Skills – relatively low share of workers with higher level skills and high share with no

qualifications

Graduate level jobs – create more graduate level jobs to absorb more of the students it

educates and attract graduates from outside

Productivity Gap – high levels of inactivity contribute to a significant productivity gap

Business Gap – low business birth rate compared to nationally, relatively small stock of

businesses and low business survival rates

Income Gap – low household incomes, greater dependency on benefits and state pensions,

particularly challenging given government changes to the welfare system

Poverty Gap – home to some of the country’s most economically and socially disadvantaged

neighbourhoods

High Inactivity – high levels of long term sickness and significantly higher proportions of

workless households than the national average

To get to where it wants to be, Liverpool City Region needs to:

Create, attract and retain better jobs

Raise skill levels and retain skilled people

Increase connectivity

Encourage innovation

Improve place quality – address problems faced by people and places excluded from

economic success

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Devolution represents a unique opportunity for Liverpool City Region; a tool that could affect future

economic performance across skills, employment, housing & planning, energy & environment,

culture and European funding. The LEP has been commissioned by the Combined Authority (CA) to

lead on the development of an overarching Single Growth Strategy for the City Region aligned with

devolution implementation plans. The Single Growth Strategy will:

Confirm an overarching vision and identity for Liverpool City Region

Identify how current assets can be exploited for further growth

Provide a clear focus on priorities, interventions and iconic projects for the long term (25

years) and short term deliverables over the next 5 years

Raise the Liverpool City Region profile nationally and internationally to service additional

investment

Create a strategic framework for implementation to ensure delivery and performance

Align to devolution themes and Combined Authority portfolios

Position Liverpool City Region within the Northern Powerhouse; show how City Region

assets complement the North and wider UK and could improve national productivity

This specification sets out the requirements for new economic forecasts for Liverpool City Region

and its wider functional economic geography commissioned by LCR LEP for use by strategic partners

and members, to inform, in particular, the City Region Single Growth Strategy, Strategic Housing &

Employment Land Market Assessment (SHELMA) as well as transport activity.

This commission is intended to fulfil existing data imperatives of both the LCR LEP and its strategic

partners, providing consistent and robust figures on the current and forecast economic performance

of the Liverpool City Region and its wider functional economic geography to help understand and

support the potential for accelerated economic growth.

2.2 Project Requirements

The last Liverpool City Region forecasting study was undertaken by the LCR LEP in 2013, and

attempted to quantify the impact of fully developing a number of key sites across the City Region to

enable growth over the period to 2030. This study informed the development of the LCR Growth

Plan and Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) submission to government.

The LEP is now seeking a robust but disaggregated set of economic forecasts that will inform an

assessment of growth in the long term (20-25 years). This will include quantifying the potential

impact of above-trend activity through the modelling of scenarios incorporating different

assumptions. This invitation to tender specifies current forecasting requirements and project

objectives.

2.3 Project Objectives

The Liverpool City Region Local Enterprise Partnership wishes to commission a piece of work, the key

objectives of which are:

Provide an updated assessment of the relative performance of the local and national

economy over the course of the recession and recovery to date.

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Provide baseline figures on economic performance to demonstrate historic and current

trends across a range of indicators based on up-to-date data and expectations.

Provide whole economy estimates and forecasts for employment and output disaggregated

by standard industrial classifications (SIC), at as detailed a SIC level as is felt feasible.

Provide whole economy estimates and forecasts for employment and output disaggregated

by spatial areas, at as detailed as is felt feasible recognising the sectoral disaggregation

required above.

Quantify the size and performance of Key Growth Sectors (Non-standard industries)1 that

have the potential to transform the Liverpool City Region economy.

Provide forecast figures of the potential impact of above-trend activity, incorporating a

number of major above-trend growth developments in the Liverpool City Region economy.

2.4 Project Details

It is expected that there will be a close working relationship between the appointed consultants and

the LCR LEP and Single Growth Strategy working group, with regular updates.

Baseline Economic Forecasts for Liverpool City Region

The provision of up-to-date baseline forecasts and estimates of past economic performance for the

Liverpool City Region will be a core part of the commission. The data provided should consist of

estimates of key performance indicators for at least the past two decades, as well as forecasted data

for each year up to approximately 2040. The forecast should take account of government austerity

measures and provide an insight into the size of impact within the City Region and wider functional

economic area.

Although the primary geography of interest is that of the LEP area, the six core local authority areas

of Halton, Knowsley, Liverpool, Sefton, St Helens and Wirral, on-going research across Combined

Authority work streams including housing & planning and transport will require forecasting results at

wider geographies that incorporate the wider City Region:

SHELMA – 6 core local authorities plus West Lancashire

Transport – 6 core local authorities plus Cheshire West & Chester, Flintshire & Wrexham

(North Wales), Warrington and West Lancashire

All data should include disaggregation down to the constituent local authority district level. In

addition comparator baseline forecasts and past economic performance should be provided for the

North West and UK.

The following core outputs need to be produced for all geographies, including each local authority

area and comparator areas as part of the study:

Workplace-based employees (full-time equivalent)

Employment (including self-employment)

1 Note that these sectors are not always easily defined through SIC codes, and LCR LEP and its partners will

listen to suggested methodologies.

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Gross Value Added (If possible consistent with the Office for National Statistics Regional GVA

dataset)

Population and working-age population

Population by age bands

Occupations (If possible Replacement Demand)

Qualification levels by Key Growth Sectors (NVQ/NQf 1-4, no qualifications, other

qualifications)

Sector breakdowns of workplace-based employment and GVA are also required in as much detail as

is possible. The baseline forecast will provide the reference case against which the above-trend

scenario forecasts will be compared.

Development of estimates for the size and prospects of the City Region Key Growth Sectors

Current economic conditions are challenging, both nationally and locally, Liverpool City Region

economic growth and improved competitiveness is focused on key economic assets and strengths of

Key Growth Sectors. These sectors are:

Low Carbon

Knowledge Economy

o Advanced Manufacturing

o Life Sciences

o Creative and Digital

o Business and Professional Services

Superport

Tourism and Visitor Economy

The complex activity undertaken in these sectors makes them difficult to categorise using traditional

methods of industrial classification. Therefore aggregations of standard industrial classification class

and sub-class codes are expected to be used as reasonable proxy measures of Key Growth Sector

activity, albeit with an awareness of the wider impact each of these sectors may have on the

economy.

These definitions will need to be incorporated into the utilised forecast model of the local economy

in order to estimate their size and their potential prospects. The forecasting house is asked to

suggest an approach to this incorporation within their tender that ensures simplicity and

transparency of approach.

Points to note:

The LEP is aware of the cross-sector nature of the Key Growth Sectors and requires a set of

forecasts that incorporates the full-range of activities in each sector, accepting that this

would result in “double-counting” if sectors were aggregated together.

The LEP also requires a separate set of forecasts with sector disaggregation for the whole

economy which avoids “double-counting”. This work should enable the modelling of impacts

of above-trend scenarios for the whole economy, taking account of the contribution the

bespoke Key Growth Sectors will make. We recognise this will require local inputs and a

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methodology to source such data from local partners and are keen to hear ideas of how this

might be best undertaken.

Key Growth Sector forecasts should provide data outputs for workplace-based employment, GVA

and if achievable occupations and qualifications. A key application of this will be skills assessments;

using forecast growth in key sectors to assess the demand for labour and associated levels of

skills/qualifications. In addition comparator forecasts and estimates of past economic performance

for Key Growth Sectors should be provided for the North West and UK.

Development of above-trend scenarios

This project requires the development of above-trend scenarios. The number of “above-trend”

scenarios will be agreed by the LEP and strategic partners from Single Growth Strategy and

Devolution policy interventions that have the potential to drive improvements in the economic

competitiveness of Liverpool City Region and its wider functional economic area.

The LEP and strategic partners will work with the appointed consultants develop the Single Growth

Strategy and Devolution policy interventions into above-trend scenarios. Following appointment,

forecasting house requirements with regard to the modelling of above-trend scenarios will be

confirmed.

The same outputs will need to be produced for this scenario as the baseline scenario.

2.5 Evidence base

All evidence used to determine the impacts of above-trend scenarios will be supplied by Liverpool

City Region LEP directly.

2.6 Geographies relevant to study

Geographies required are Liverpool City Region and its constituent local authority districts (Halton,

Knowsley, Liverpool, Sefton, St Helens and Wirral). To help inform local housing and employment

land assessments and transport research, wider Liverpool City Region functional economic

geographies of Liverpool City Region plus West Lancashire and Liverpool City Region plus West

Lancashire, Warrington, Cheshire West & Chester and Flintshire & Wrexham are also required.

2.7 Client Group

The client group consists of the Liverpool City Region LEP and strategic partners. An inception

meeting will be used to agree the methodology for defining the elements that make up the above-

trend growth scenarios and the format of all information needed by the consultants.

2.8 Study Outputs

The final study output will consist of:

Electronic copies (excel form) of all estimates and forecasts referred to in this specification.

A final report introducing the project, outlining the methodology adopted and describing the

main findings.

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A technical appendix providing a detailed guide in terms of how the forecasts were

constructed and the assumptions used; the appendix will provide details of any underlying

model used to produce the set of forecasts.

The Liverpool City Region LEP will lead responses to enquiries relating to the forecasts

produced, however may in particular instances require the support of the appointed

consultants. The consultants should provide a Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) list and

provide technical support when requested.

2.9 Timetable for Proposal

The development of the City Region Single Economic Strategy needs to be informed by economic

forecasts; therefore the LCR LEP requires outputs from this work to be provided by the end of

April/beginning of May 2016.

Consultants responding to this specification must set out a clear timetable for production of the

forecasts.

A clear payment schedule should also be set out to reflect this timetable.

2.10 Ownership of Outputs

The Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) for the forecasts produced and any associated outputs lie with

the client. As such, all outputs will be the property of Liverpool City Region LEP, who will hold the

right to make all or any of the results public, provide results to partners for free and sell on results to

other parties.

3. Format of Tender

Tenders must address all the requirements and be in the format requested below. Tenders not in

this format will not be considered.

3.1 General Information

The following must be supplied:

3.1.1 Organisation identity including name, address, telephone number, e-mail address, fax

number, company registration number, VAT registration number and website address (if

applicable). Please also state if the organisation is a Small to Medium Enterprise (SME) as

defined in Section 382 and 465 of the Companies Act 2006.

3.1.2 Details of an individual in the organisation who will be the single point of contact for this

tender

3.1.3 If the organisation is a subsidiary of another company or member of a group, details of any

holding or parent company and the structure of the group

3.1.4 Name, address, telephone number and e-mail address of any third parties involved in

tender.

3.1.5 Confirmation of acceptance by the tenderer and any third parties of the conditions of tender

described in Section 5 of the invitation to tender.

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3.1.6 A list of all key personnel to be attached to the project and details of their previous relevant

experience in implementing the type of project specified at 2.

3.1.7 Details of the organisation’s customer base specifying numbers, size and business sector

together with details of at least one relevant referee.

3.1.8 A statement that none of the circumstances listed in paragraphs 1 and 2 of Article 45 of EU

Directive 2004/18/EC apply to the tenderer (see Appendix B);

3.1.9 An appropriate financial profile for the last three years must be provided including, in the

case of corporate entities, independently audited accounts. Where a tenderer is trading for

less than three years accounts for each year of trading must be provided.

3.1.10 Copies of current certificates of insurance should be provided.

3.2 Proposals

3.2.1 A textual response on a point by point basis outlining how the requirements specified in

section 2 will be met and demonstrating experience in the successful delivery of similar

projects.

3.3 Pricing

[Important Note: LCR LEP does not award agreements based on lowest costs but cost will be an

important element in the decision making progress]

All prices quoted must be fixed and firm and shall apply during the whole of the Contract period. All

prices quoted shall be in pounds sterling, exclusive of Value Added Tax (VAT) and the schedule must

include the following information.

3.3.1 Tenderers to state the period for which their tenders remain unchanged from the date of

submission.

3.3.2 An indication of the applicable rate of VAT in respect of each of the services being proposed.

3.3.3 Details of any other or ancillary costs, taxes or duties which may be incurred. Proposals

should clearly indicate any discounts to which LCR LEP would be entitled, including public

sector discounts, early payment discounts, forward contract discounts and any other

discounts.

3.4 Contract

A contract will be provided to the tenderer whose proposal is deemed to be the most economically

advantageous subject to agreement on conditions of that contract.

Please note the following:

3.4.1 Any terms and conditions in the proposed contract do not imply acceptance by LCR LEP of

the Tenderer’s Services until the contract is signed by an authorised officer of LCR LEP.

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3.4.2 All works carried out shall be governed by the Laws of England and subject to the exclusive

jurisdiction of the Courts of England.

3.4.3 LCR LEP may cancel the tender process at any time prior to a contract being entered into.

4. Examination and Evaluation of Tenders

4.1 Tenders will be examined initially by reference to the following:

4.1.1 Completeness of proposals and tender documentation as specified in Sections 2 and 3

(Specification of Requirements and Format of Tender) of this document;

4.1.2 Stated ability of the tenderer to meet all the requirements specified in Section 2 of this

document;

4.1.3 Statement that none of the circumstances listed in paragraphs 1 and 2 of Article 45 of EU

Directive 2004/18/EC apply to the tenderer;

4.1.4 Only those tenders who satisfy conditions in relation to the above will be eligible for

inclusion in the award process.

4.2 Award Criteria

4.2.1 The opportunity to contract will be awarded to the submission which most ably

demonstrates a successful track record similar to those meeting the specifications set out in

Section 2, and not otherwise validly excluded, on the basis of the following award criteria

scored from 100 marks weighted as indicated;

Demonstration of independence and credibility in economic forecasting 25

Knowledge of the Liverpool City Region Economy/recent economic performance 35

Cost 10

Content, delivery and originality 20

Staff experience 10

4.3 Clarification

4.3.1 During the evaluation period clarification may be sought in writing from tenderers.

Responses to requests for clarification may not materially change any of the elements of the

tenders submitted. No unsolicited communications from tenderers will be entertained

during the evaluation period. A number of the most competitive tenderers may be invited

to make presentations on their proposals for the purpose of elaboration, clarification and/or

aiding mutual understanding. Any proposed subcontractors may be required to participate

in the presentation.

5. General Conditions of Tender

Tenders should be prepared in English and are subject to the following:

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5.1 This Invitation to Tender shall form part of the contract documents. The contract will not be

concluded/take effect until at least 10 days after unsuccessful tenderers have been notified

of the result of this tendering procedure.

5.2 LCR LEP will use its reasonable endeavours to hold confidential any information provided by

tenderers subject to their obligation under law, including the Freedom of Information Act

(FOIA). Tenderers should indicate when tendering what parts of their tenders are

commercially sensitive and which they consider should be kept confidential should an FOIA

request be received. LCR LEP may not consult with tenderers about any such sensitive

information before making a decision on any FOIA request received. Similarly, LCR LEP

requires that all information provided pursuant to this invitation to tender will be treated in

strict confidence by tenderers.

5.3 Tenderers must comply with the Data Protection Act 1998, current Employment and

Discrimination legislation and employ Sustainable Procurement practices.

5.4 Tenderers must have regard to statutory terms relating to minimum pay and to legally

binding industrial or sectoral agreements in preparing tenders.

5.5 Information supplied by tenderers will be treated as contractually binding. However, LCR

LEP reserves the right to seek clarification or verification of any such information.

5.6 Any conflicts of interest involving a tenderer must be fully disclosed to LCR LEP particularly

where there is a conflict of interest in relation to any recommendations or proposals put

forward by the tenderer.

5.6.1 Any registerable interest involving the tenderer and LCR LEP, members of the local authority

or their relatives must be fully disclosed in the response to this tender request, or should be

communicated to LCR LEP immediately upon such information becoming known to the

tenderer, in the event of this information only coming to their notice after the submission of

a bid and prior to the award of the contract.

5.7 In the event of a group of respondents jointly submitting an acceptable offer, the contract

will be awarded by LCR LEP to one contractor who acts as the agreed prime contractor. The

prime contractor is responsible for the delivery of all services provided for under the terms

of the contract and shall assume all the duties, responsibilities and costs associated with the

position of prime contractor.

5.7.1 The successful tenderer shall be responsible for the delivery of all services provided for

within the contract on the basis of a fixed price agreement set at the beginning of the

contract. Prices quoted in the tender cannot be increased during the currency of the tender.

Similarly the Tenderer cannot alter the terms and conditions.

5.7.2 LCR LEP retains the right to withhold payment where a contractor has failed to meet his/her

contractual obligations in relation to the delivery of services to an acceptable level of quality.

5.8 LCR LEP will not be liable in respect of any costs incurred by tenderers in the preparation of

tenders or any associated work effort.

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5.9 Responses to this Invitation to Tender will be evaluated in their own right. No recognition

will be given to information previously submitted.

5.10 LCR LEP is not bound to accept the lowest price, or any tender submitted.

5.11 LCR LEP shall grant a non exclusive temporary licence to use its name and logo for the

purpose of the tender only.

5.12 The successful supplier will acknowledge that this project is partly funded by ERDF and

undertakes to ensure that: all promotional literature relating to the event displays the

correct ERDF brand requirements and that expenditure is eligible under the terms of ERDF

funding (guidelines available on request).

5.13 Tenders must be completed in accordance with the format specified in Section 3. Tenders

which are incomplete will not be evaluated.

5.14 Three (3) copies of the tender in a sealed envelope marked “Tender for Liverpool City

Region Econometric Forecasts” and addressed to:

Name Nicola Christie

Address The Liverpool City Region Local Enterprise Partnership, 12 Princes Parade,

Liverpool L3 1BG

should be delivered to the above address not later than 17.30 on 19th February 2016.

An electronic version of the tender should also be sent to Nicola.Christie@liverpoollep.org

Tenders delivered after this time will not be accepted.

5.14 Acceptance by LCR LEP of the tenderer’s application does not indicate acceptance by LCR

LEP of an agreement for the tenderer to supply the services to LCR LEP.

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Appendix B ARTICLE 45 OF EU DIRECTIVE 2004/18/EC Personal situation of the candidate or tenderer 1. Any candidate or tenderer who has been the subject of a conviction by definitive judgment

of which the contracting authority is aware for one or more of the reasons listed below shall be excluded from participation in a public contract:

(a) Participation in a criminal organisation, as defined in Article 2(1) of Council Joint Action

98/733/JHA; (b) Corruption, as defined in Article 3 of the Council Act of 26 May 1997 and Article 3(1) of

Council Joint Action 98/742/JHA respectively; (c) Fraud within the meaning of Article 1 of the Convention relating to the protection of the

financial interests of the European Communities; (d) Money laundering, as defined in Article 1 of Council Directive 91/308/EEC of 10 June 1991

on prevention of the use of the financial system for the purpose of money laundering. 2. Any economic operator may be excluded from participation in a contract who: (a) Is bankrupt or is being wound up, whose affairs are being administered by the court, who

has entered into an arrangement with creditors, who has suspended business activities or who is in any analogous situation arising from a similar procedure under national laws and regulations;

(b) Is the subject of proceedings for a declaration of bankruptcy, for an order for compulsory

winding up or administration by the court or of an arrangement with creditors or of any other similar proceedings under national laws and regulations;

(c) Has been convicted by a judgment which has the force of res judicata in accordance with the

legal provisions of the country of any offence concerning his professional conduct; (d) Has been guilty of grave professional misconduct proven by any means which the

contracting authorities can demonstrate; (e) Has not fulfilled obligations relating to the payment of social security contributions in

accordance with the legal provisions of the country in which he is established or with those of the country of the contracting authority;

(f) Has not fulfilled obligations relating to the payment of taxes in accordance with the legal

provisions of the country in which he is established or with those of the country of the contracting authority;

(g) Is guilty of serious misrepresentation in supplying the information required under this

Section or has not supplied such information.