Livelihood, Early Assessment, Livelihood, Early Assessment, Protection Protection

LEAP – EthiopiaLEAP – Ethiopia

LEAP Training 21 to 23 April 2010, Addis Ababa

LEAP objective and purposeLEAP objective and purpose Based on 2006 Ethiopia Drought Index project Based on 2006 Ethiopia Drought Index project

experienceexperience GFDRR Project that links drought and flood GFDRR Project that links drought and flood

monitoring and early warning with the GoE monitoring and early warning with the GoE managed risk management frameworkmanaged risk management framework

Software platform to calculate weather based Software platform to calculate weather based indices:indices:

• Monitoring of drought and other risksMonitoring of drought and other risks

• Guide to disbursements for a PSNP scale-upGuide to disbursements for a PSNP scale-up

Integral part of the Ethiopia Risk Management Integral part of the Ethiopia Risk Management FrameworkFramework

Ex-ante risk management toolEx-ante risk management tool

Ethiopia Risk Management Ethiopia Risk Management FrameworkFramework

Early Warning System

with reliable baseline and trigger points

Contingency Planning

for appropriate and timely response

Ex-Ante Financing

of contingency plans

Capacity Building

for effective plan implementation

II. Develop budgeted contingency plans

IV. Establish timely emergency financing through use of contingency financing

I. IMPROVE INDEX: LEAP

III. Build planning and implementation capacity at regional level

LEAP productsLEAP products

WRSI: Water Requirement Satisfaction WRSI: Water Requirement Satisfaction Index and 19 related parameters (PET, Index and 19 related parameters (PET, water excess etc.)water excess etc.)

Yield reduction estimatesYield reduction estimates Livelihood parameters (number of Livelihood parameters (number of

beneficiaries, cost for livelihood protection beneficiaries, cost for livelihood protection at Woreda level)at Woreda level)

Moisture index (rainfall/evapotranspiration Moisture index (rainfall/evapotranspiration comparison)comparison)

WRSI Index = intermediate WRSI Index = intermediate productproductCrop

andWeather

Information

Water BalanceCalculation

WRSIIndex

Number of Beneficiaries

LPCI

Crop Yields

Crop baskets

Rangeland Yields

Shocks in Livelihood

StudiesPrices of Food

WHAT DO WE WANT FROM LIVELIHOOD WHAT DO WE WANT FROM LIVELIHOOD PROTECTION COST INDEX?PROTECTION COST INDEX?

Represent cost of intervening early to protect Represent cost of intervening early to protect vulnerable livelihoods vulnerable livelihoods

Signal amount of financial resources needed for Signal amount of financial resources needed for regions to protect vulnerable livelihoods before regions to protect vulnerable livelihoods before harvestharvest

Trusted by GoE and donors to trigger timely Trusted by GoE and donors to trigger timely resourcesresources

Provide early warning of livelihood stress levelsProvide early warning of livelihood stress levels Crop and pasture monitoring toolCrop and pasture monitoring tool Easily customizable according to new purposesEasily customizable according to new purposes Open source and available for freeOpen source and available for free

Costs (Livelihood Protection

Cost Index LPCI)

Number of Beneficiaries

for Livelihood Protection

Water Requirement

Satisfaction Index

(WRSI)for Crops + Rangelands

Weather data Crop + soil coefficients

Yield reduction in % “hot spot” monitoring

Target group: vulnerable population Target group: vulnerable population 80 to 90% of Rural Livelihoods directly 80 to 90% of Rural Livelihoods directly

or indirectly depend on rainfed or indirectly depend on rainfed agricultureagriculture

Developing the LPCIDeveloping the LPCI

CONTINGENCY PLANNINGCONTINGENCY PLANNING

LPCI LPCI

LivelihoodsLivelihoods

Appropriate and timely response

Appropriate and timely response

Contingent Financing

Contingent Financing

protects

triggers activates

implement

Contingency Plans

Contingency Plans

Livelihood AnalysisLivelihood Analysise.g. SNNPRe.g. SNNPR

•Risk Profiling

•Drought Risk Assessment

•Drought Impact Assessment

•Drought Scenarios

Types of intervention needed

Timing of intervention

Target population

Costs

•Implementing partners

Current LEAP phaseCurrent LEAP phase

Capacity building – LEAP training and Capacity building – LEAP training and study toursstudy tours

Development of flood and pastoralist Development of flood and pastoralist indicesindices

Verification of LEAP drought index, Verification of LEAP drought index, stakeholder supportstakeholder support

Complete hand over to GoEComplete hand over to GoE

LEAP is being developed byLEAP is being developed by

WFP Rome, initiator, insurance based risk financing (Niels WFP Rome, initiator, insurance based risk financing (Niels Balzer, Ulrich Hess – Vanessa Cardamone, Giuditta De Balzer, Ulrich Hess – Vanessa Cardamone, Giuditta De Simone)Simone)

MoARD intents to make LEAP corner stone of food security MoARD intents to make LEAP corner stone of food security warning system (Mattewos Hunde)warning system (Mattewos Hunde)

Local Consultants (Addisu and Girma; crop and needs data)Local Consultants (Addisu and Girma; crop and needs data) NMA Ethiopia, provides data and feedback.NMA Ethiopia, provides data and feedback. CSA and MoARD provide dataCSA and MoARD provide data Several government bodies provide feedbackSeveral government bodies provide feedback International Consultants (Sandro Calmanti and Peter International Consultants (Sandro Calmanti and Peter

Hoefsloot)Hoefsloot) WFP/VAM Addis, overall guidance, data delivery and WFP/VAM Addis, overall guidance, data delivery and

feedback from the field (Elliot Vhurumuku – Teshome feedback from the field (Elliot Vhurumuku – Teshome Erkineh and Dr Muktar ReshidErkineh and Dr Muktar Reshid))

World Bank finances through GFDRR GrantWorld Bank finances through GFDRR Grant (Will Wiseman (Will Wiseman – Wout Soer)– Wout Soer)

Data providersData providers National Met Agency (rainfall and et0)National Met Agency (rainfall and et0) University of Reading (rainfall)University of Reading (rainfall) NOAA (rainfall estimates)NOAA (rainfall estimates) LEWS project (Livestock Early LEWS project (Livestock Early

Warning System): Forage MapsWarning System): Forage Maps MoARD (crop and production MoARD (crop and production

data)data) CSA (crop and needs data)CSA (crop and needs data) USGS (NDVI)USGS (NDVI) EUMETSAT Germany : Meteosat NDVIEUMETSAT Germany : Meteosat NDVI Almost all provide data for free -> enhances Almost all provide data for free -> enhances

sustainabilitysustainability

What has been done so farWhat has been done so far

First steps to LEAP three years agoFirst steps to LEAP three years ago Now version 2.20Now version 2.20 Software will be updated regularly (next year Software will be updated regularly (next year

floods and rangeland)floods and rangeland) 100 page manual and 40-page tutorial 100 page manual and 40-page tutorial

includedincluded LEAP website : LEAP website : http://vam.wfp.org/leap Training has been provided in 6 workshops to Training has been provided in 6 workshops to

over 75 Ethiopian professionals.over 75 Ethiopian professionals. Users: WFP, World Bank consultants, MoARD, Users: WFP, World Bank consultants, MoARD,

NMA, and YOU!NMA, and YOU!

Recent LEAP developmentsRecent LEAP developments NMA provides real-time rainfall through Dr. NMA provides real-time rainfall through Dr.

Muktar Reshid Muktar Reshid ITHACA (Fabio Giulio Tonolo , Franca ITHACA (Fabio Giulio Tonolo , Franca

Disabato): methodology based on MODIS to Disabato): methodology based on MODIS to detect floodsdetect floods

ENEA (Sandro Calmanti) works on rangeland ENEA (Sandro Calmanti) works on rangeland production estimates linked to needsproduction estimates linked to needs

Servers in Addis will be installed at DRMFSS Servers in Addis will be installed at DRMFSS and NMA (Mattewos Hunde and Teshome and NMA (Mattewos Hunde and Teshome Erkineh)Erkineh)

Peter Hoefsloot integrates all above in LEAPPeter Hoefsloot integrates all above in LEAP

Continuously running LEAP activitiesContinuously running LEAP activities

Providing new data to the LEAP Providing new data to the LEAP community through internet community through internet download and mail:download and mail:• rainfall estimates (also through mail)rainfall estimates (also through mail)• NMA data integration (ET0 and rainfall) NMA data integration (ET0 and rainfall) • NDVI (vegetation greenness)NDVI (vegetation greenness)

Monthly LEAP bulletins in cropping Monthly LEAP bulletins in cropping seasonseason

Technical support through mailTechnical support through mail

LEAP bulletinsLEAP bulletins

Monthly in Belg Monthly in Belg and Meher and Meher cropping seasonscropping seasons

MapsMaps HighlightsHighlights

Still to doStill to do

Emphasis on making LEAP operationalEmphasis on making LEAP operational Introduce improved needs and Introduce improved needs and

beneficiary algorithms into LEAP beneficiary algorithms into LEAP (based on work by Sandro Calmanti)(based on work by Sandro Calmanti)

Training trainers and software Training trainers and software developersdevelopers

Ensure continuous records - some Ensure continuous records - some datasets have gapsdatasets have gaps

LEAP is free!LEAP is free!

Download from LEAP pageDownload from LEAP page http://vam.wfp.org/leap (program + (program +

data = 76MB)data = 76MB)

If you need data by mail rather than internet update, please send an e-mail to

peter.hoefsloot@planet.nl

Drought Index VerificationDrought Index Verification

Correlation against historical Correlation against historical production/yield and beneficiary production/yield and beneficiary datadata• FAO/WFP natl cereal crop production, FAO/WFP natl cereal crop production,

1999-2003 1999-2003 87% 87%• MoARD natl cereal crop yields, 1995-2003 MoARD natl cereal crop yields, 1995-2003

75% 75%• WFP beneficiary numbers, 1994-2004 WFP beneficiary numbers, 1994-2004

81%81%• DPPA % of drought affected pop DPPA % of drought affected pop 80% 80%

Field verification Field verification • Purpose:Purpose: (1) Verify accuracy of drought index for rigor (1) Verify accuracy of drought index for rigor

in capturing actual performance of dominant staple in capturing actual performance of dominant staple crops on ground; (2) Generate baseline date for further crops on ground; (2) Generate baseline date for further validation of indexvalidation of index

• 13 woredas associated with 10 selected weather 13 woredas associated with 10 selected weather stations visitedstations visited

• Minor differences emanated from identified gaps in Minor differences emanated from identified gaps in model but comparison against modelled estimates model but comparison against modelled estimates reveal that index fairly captured conditions in most reveal that index fairly captured conditions in most woredasworedas

• Recommendation:Recommendation: Improved agro-met data inputs; Improved agro-met data inputs; further improvement and pilot testingfurther improvement and pilot testing

Drought Index Verification IIDrought Index Verification II

A water balance model drives the A water balance model drives the indexindex

Index based on just rainfall too crude.Index based on just rainfall too crude. Water balance model: bookkeeping on crop water Water balance model: bookkeeping on crop water

useuse