Chapter 4 Lists and References

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Chapter 4. Lists and References Chapter 4 includes lists of the document contributors (both interdisciplinary team members and other contributors), a distribution list for agencies, individuals, organizations, municipalities and tribal groups who were sent the Wrangell Island Project FEIS, references cited in the FEIS, and an index of key words by page number.

Document Preparers and Contributors The following list of contributors to the Wrangell Island Project EIS. Other Forest Service employees contributed to the completion of this document through their assistance in support functions. Their help is greatly appreciated.

Interdisciplinary Team Members Joe Delabrue, Wildlife Education: B.S. Fisheries and Wildlife Biology, Utah State University, 2002 Relevant experience: 19 years

Jackie de Montigny, Soils/Wetlands/Invasive Plants Education: B.A. Education, University of Montana, 1979 M.S. Forestry, University of Montana, 1993 Relevant experience: 27 years

Karen Endres, Aquatics Education: B.S Civil Engineering, Michigan Technological University, 1998 M.S. Civil Engineering, Michigan Technological University, 2000 Ph.D. Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, 2004 Relevant Experience: 19 years

Dee Galla, Recreation Education: B.S. Wildland Recreation Management, University of Idaho, 1990 Relevant experience: 29 years

Jason Powell, Access Management Education: B.S. Forest Engineering, Oregon State University, 2010 Relevant experience: 9 years

Greg Roberts, Silviculture Education: B.S. Forestry, Southern Illinois University, 1987 Relevant experience: 24 years

Andrea Slusser, Interdisciplinary Team Leader Education: B.S. Natural Resources Planning, Humboldt State University, 2000 M.L.A., University of Washington, 2012 Relevant experience: 17 years

Jane Smith, Cultural Resources Education: B.S. Anthropology, Radford University, 1983 Relevant experience: 34 years

Nathan Stearns, Timber Economics and Supply Education: B.S. Forest Management, Administration and Utilization, University of Wisconsin, 1998 Relevant experience: 19 years

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James Steward, Scenic Quality Education: Oregon State University, 1982 Relevant experience: 26 years

Rick Turner, Plants: Sensitive and Rare; Invasive Plants Education: B.S. Forestry, Stephen F. Austin State University, 1994 M.S. Biology, Stephen F. Austin State University, 1999 Relevant experience: 24 years

Major Contributors and Reviewers Sally Burch, Geographic Information Systems Analysis Education: B.S Relevant experience: 27 years

Richard Burke, Forest Transportation Planner Education: AAS Civil Engineering Technology, Mount Hood Community College, 2005 B.S. Forest Engineering, Oregon State University, 2010 Relevant experience: 13 years

Gregory Dunn, Wildlife Planner Education: B.S. Zoology and B.S. Fish and Wildlife Management, Northern Arizona University, 2000 Relevant Experience: 11 years

Pat Heuer, Forester/NEPA Coordinator Education: B.S. Forest Management, Colorado State University, 1991 Certified Silviculturist, USFS, 1997 Relevant Experience: 28 years

Shelia Jacobson, Forest Fisheries Biologist Education: B.S. Fisheries and Wildlife Management, University of Missouri-Columbia, 1990 Relevant Experience: 27 years

Andy Klimek, Geographic Information Systems Analysis Education: B.A. English, Juniata College, 1991 Relevant experience: 19 years

Brenda Miller, Geographic Information Systems Analysis Education: B.S. Forestry, Mississippi State University, 1985 Relevant experience: 26 years

Tim Piazza, Forester/NEPA Planner Education: B.S. Natural Resources Management, Sheldon Jackson College, 1999 A.A.S. Forestry, Mount Hood Community College, 1992 Relevant experience: 28 years

Gene Primaky, Geographic Information Systems Analysis Education: Certificate of Forestry, AV Tech, 1990 Relevant experience: 27 years

Julianne Thompson, Forest Hydrologist Education: B.S. Natural Resources Management, California Polytechnic State University, 1985 Relevant experience: 29 years

Lists and References 4

Wrangell Island Project FEIS ♦ 265

Kristin Whisennand, Enterprise Writer/Editor Education: B.A. Anthropology, Dartmouth College, 1984 B.S. Resource Conservation Management and Forestry, University of Montana, 2006 Relevant Experience: 14 years

Marina Whitacre, Writer/Editor Education: B.A. Biology, Colorado College, 1994 M.S. Range Science, Utah State University, 2004 Relevant Experience: 14 years

Distribution of the Environmental Impact Statement

List of Agencies, Organizations and Persons to whom copies of the Statement are Sent This environmental impact statement is available online at: https://www.fs.usda.gov/project/?project=34831. Individuals who specifically requested a copy of the document and those who submitted substantive comments on the draft environmental impact statement were provided this link either through an email or letter. In addition, paper copies of the document have been sent to the following Federal agencies, federally recognized tribes, State and local governments, organizations and individuals.

Library of Congress

US Government Publishing Office

USDA National Agricultural Library

Environmental Protection Agency

Office of Environmental Policy and Compliance

US Fish and Wildlife Service

Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Southern Southeast Area Office

City and Borough of Wrangell

National Marine Fisheries Service

Rebecca Knight

George Woodbury

Earthjustice

Greenpeace

Irene Ingle Public Library

Jack Ozment

Sitka Public Library

Wrangell Cooperative Association

In addition to agencies, organizations and persons to whom a paper copy of the FEIS was sent, approximately 383 contacts have been notified of the availability of the FEIS on the World-Wide Web via a letter delivered by the US Post Service, and 753 have been notified electronically. These lists of recipients are available in the Wrangell Island project record. Hard copies of the FEIS are also available for public review at the Wrangell Ranger District Office.

4 Lists and References

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References The following list of references includes both literature cited in this DEIS and other sources of information used in the Wrangell Island Project analysis. Complete reference lists are included in individual resource reports which are on file in the Wrangell Island Project EIS project record.

Ager, T.A., P.E. Carrara, J.L. Smith, V. Anne and J. Johnson. 2010. “Postglacial vegetation history of Mitkof Island, Alexander Archipelago, southeastern Alaska.” Quaternary Research 73:259-268.

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Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development (ADCCED). 2006. Community profiles online. Available online at: https://www.commerce.alaska.gov/dcra/DCRAExternal (accessed March 14, 2017).

ADCCED. 2016. Website. Communities-Wrangell. Available online at: https://www.commerce.alaska.gov/dcra/DCRAExternal (accessed March 14, 2017).

Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC). 2008. Water Quality Standards. 18 AAC 70. Amended as of July 1, 2008. Supplement to the Alaska Administrative Code. Available online at: http://www.dec.state.ak.us/water/wqsar/wqs/pdfs/18%20AAC_70_WQS_Amended_July_1_2008.pdf (accessed March 14, 2017).

Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G). 1994. Subsistence Resource Use Patterns in Southeast Alaska: Summaries of 30 Communities.

ADF&G. 2012. Feasibility assessment for increasing sustainable harvest of Sitka black-tailed deer in a portion of Game Management Unit 3. Division of Wildlife Conservation. Unit 3, p.1-50.

ADF&G. 2015. Unpublished harvest data from Lowell, R.E.

Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development (ADOL). 2013. State of Alaska, Department of Labor and Workforce Development website. Available online at: http://labor.state.ak.us/ (accessed March 14, 2017).

ADOL. 2016. Alaska Population Overview, 2015 Estimates. November. Available online at: http://live.laborstats.alaska.gov/pop/estimates/pub/popover.pdf (accessed March 14, 2017).

Alaska Department of Natural Resources (ADNR). 2013. Division of Forestry, Coastal Region, Southern Southeast Area. Five-year Schedule of Timber Sales. Available online at: http://forestry.alaska.gov/Assets/uploads/DNRPublic/forestry/pdfs/timber/ketchikan_timber/2015-2019/2015_2019_FINAL_FYSTS_no_matrix.pdf (accessed March 14, 2017).

ADNR. 2015. Alaska Division of Forestry five-year schedule of timber sales. Available online at: http://forestry.alaska.gov/timber/fiveyearschedules (accessed March 14, 2017).

Alaska Natural Heritage Program (AKNHP). 2015. Alaska Rare Plant List.

AlaskaWeb. 2016. Website. AlaskaWeb.org. Wrangell, Alaska. Available online at: http://alaskaweb.org/cmtys/wrangell.html (accessed March 14, 2017).

Alexander, S.J. 2012. Employment Coefficients and Indirect Effects, for NEPA Planning: 2012 Update.

Alexander, S.J., E. Henderson and R. Coleman. 2010. Economic Analysis of Southeast Alaska: Envisioning a Sustainable Economy with Thriving Communities. Forest Service, Alaska Region Publication R10-MB-725, Juneau, AK, 93 p.

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Allen, B.M. and R.P. Angliss. 2010. Alaska Marine Mammal Stock Assessments, 2009. Seattle, Washington: US Department of Commerce, NOAA, NMFS, Alaska Fisheries Science Center. 287 p.

Ames, K.M., and H.D.G. Maschner. 1999. Peoples of the Northwest Coast: Their Archaeology and Prehistory. London, England: Thames and Hudson.

Arhangelsky, K. 2006. Non-Native Plant Species Inventory Of Southeast Alaska: Ketchikan, Wrangell, Mitkof, Kupreanof. Summary of 2006 Survey Findings Final Report for USDA Forest Service, State and Private Forestry. Unpublished report.

Arimitsu, M.L., J.F. Jiatt, M.D. Romano, E.N. Madison, and J.S. Conaway. 2010. Kittlitz’s and marbled Murrelets in Kenai Fjords National Park, south-central Alaska: At sea disturbance, abundance, and Foraging habitat, 2006-08. USGS Open-File Report 2010-1181, 68 p.

Armstrong, R.H. 1995. Guide to the birds of Alaska. Alaska Northwest Books, Anchorage. 322 p.

Arndt, K.L., R.H. Sackett and J.A. Ketz. 1987. “A Cultural Resource Overview of the Tongass National Forest, Alaska.” Submitted to USDA Forest Service, Tongass National Forest, under Contract No. 53-0109-6-00203. 3 vols. GDM Inc., Fairbanks, Alaska.

Aubry, K.B and M.G. Raphael. 2014. Martens, Sables, and Fishers: New Synthesis Informs Management and Conservation. United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Pacific Northwest Research Station. Science Findings Issue 160: April. Audubon Society 2015. Christmas bird count. Website: http://birds.audubon.org/christmas-bird-count (accessed March 14, 2017).

Bachelet D., J. Lenihan, R. Neilson, R. Drapek, and T. Kittel. 2005. “Simulating the response of natural ecosystems and their fire regimes to climate variability in Alaska.” Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35: 2244–2257.

Banner, A., P. LePage, J. Moran, and A. de Groot. 2005. Pattern, Process, and Productivity in Hypermaritime Forests of Coastal British Columbia. British Columbia: Ministry of Forests, Forest Science Program.

Barrett, T.M. and R.R. Pattison. 2017. No evidence of recent (1995-2013) decrease of yellow-cedar in Alaska. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research 47: 97-105.

Beier, C.M., S.E. Sink, P.E. Hennon, D.V. D'Amore, G.P. Juday. 2008. “Twentieth-century warming and the dendroclimatology of declining yellow-cedar forests in southeastern Alaska.” Canadian Journal of Forestry Research 38: 1319-1334.

Berman, M., G.P. Juday and R. Burnside. 1999. Climate Change and Alaska Forests: People, Problems and Policies. Proceedings from Assessing the Consequences of Climate Change for Alaska and the Bering Sea Region. 29-30 October 1998. Center for Global Change and Artic System Research, University of Alaska Fairbanks.

Beschta, R.L., M.R. Pyles, A.E. Skaugset, C.G. Surfleet. 2000. “Peakflow responses to forest practices in the western cascades of Oregon, USA.” Journal of Hydrology 233: 102-120.

Blejwas, K. 2016. Personal communication with Karen Blejwas, Regional Wildlife Biologist, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, August 8.

Bloxton. T.D., Jr. 2002. Prey Abundance, Space Use, Demography, and Foraging Habitat of Northern Goshawks in Western Washington. Master’s Thesis. University of Washington. 80 p.

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Boreal Partners in Flight Working Group (BPIF). 1999. Landbird Conservation Plan for Alaska Biogeographic Regions, Version 1.0. Unpublished report. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage. 45 p.

Bormann, B.T., H. Spaltenstein, M.H. McClellan, F.C. Ugolini, K. Cromack, Jr., and S.M. Nay. 1995. “Rapid soil development after windthrow disturbance in pristine forests.” Journal of Ecology 83: 747–757.

Brady, J.G. 1897. “Report of the Governor of the District of Alaska to the Secretary of the Interior 1897.” Available online at: http://books.google.com/books?id=glQZAQAAIAAJ&pg=PA14&lpg=PA14&dq=what+did+glacier+packing+company+wrangell+alaska+do?&source=bl&ots=3GhhZKzDj7&sig=BJ_6ZfILJvzOOPMn25cUKI78l4&hl=en&ei=kVf1TKLMEsqr8AaRsZ2xBw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3&ved=0CB8Q6AEwAg#v=onepage&q&f=false (accessed March 14, 2017).

Brinkman, T.J., T. Chapin, G. Kofinas, and D.K. Person. 2009. “Linking hunter knowledge with forest change to understand changing deer harvest opportunities in intensively logged landscapes.” Ecology and Society 14(1): 36. Available online at: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art36/ (accessed March 14, 2017).

British Columbia Ministry of Forests. 1996. Coastal black-tailed deer study. Brochures 38-41, 58. Integrated Wildlife-Intensive Forestry Research (IWIFR) Program. A co-operative program of: B.C. Ministry of Forests; B.C. Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks; University of British Columbia; Canadian Forest Products Ltd.; Timber West Forest Ltd.; MacMillan Bloedel Ltd. Available online at: http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfd/pubs/Docs/Bro/Bro-deer.htm (accessed March 14, 2017).

Caouette, J.P., and E.J. DeGayner. 2008. “Broad-Scale Classification and Mapping of Tree Size and Density Attributes in Productive Old-Growth Forests in Southeast Alaska’s Tongass National Forest.” Western Journal of Applied Forestry 23(2): 106-112.

Carlson, M.L., I.V. Lapina, M.S. Shephard, J.S. Conn, R. Densmore, P. Spencer, J. Heys, J. Riley, and J. Nielsen. 2008. Invasiveness Ranking System for Non-native Plants of Alaska. Technical Paper R10-TP-143. Anchorage: USDA Forest Service, Alaska Region.

Carlson, R.J. and J.F. Baichtal. 2015. “A Predictive Model for Locating Early Holocene Archaeological Sites Based on Raised Shell Bearing Strata in Southeast Alaska, USA.” Geoarchaeology 30(2): 128-138.

Carstensen, R., J. Schoen, and D. Albert. 2007. “Chapter 4: Biogeographic Provinces of Southeast Alaska.” In: A Conservation Assessment and Resource Synthesis for the Coastal Forests and Mountains Ecoregion in the Tongass National Forest and Southeast Alaska. Available online at: https://www.conservationgateway.org/ConservationByGeography/NorthAmerica/UnitedStates/alaska/seak/era/cfm/Pages/BioGeoProv.aspx (accessed March 14, 2017).

Chapin, T.G., D.J. Harrison, and D.D. Katnik. 1998. “Influence of landscape pattern on habitat use by American marten in and industrial forest.” Conservation Biology 12(6):1327-1337.

Chen, J., J. Franklin, and T. Spies. 1993. “Contrasting Microclimates among Clearcut, Edge, and Interior of Old-Growth Douglas-fir Forest.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 63(1): 219-237.

Chen, J., J. Franklin, and T. Spies. 1995. “Growing-Season Microclimate Gradients from Clearcut Edges into Old-Growth Douglas-Fir Forests.” Ecological Applications 5(1): 74-86.

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Cheveau, M., L. Imbeau, P. Drapeau and L. Belanger. 2013. “Marten space use and habitat selection in managed coniferous boreal forests of Eastern Canada.” The Journal of Wildlife Management 77: 749-760.

City and Borough of Wrangell, Alaska (CBWA). 2014. Website. History of Wrangell. Available online at: http://www.wrangell.com/visitorservices/history-wrangell (accessed March 14, 2017).

Clausen, D.L., and R.F. Schroeder, compilers. 2004. Social acceptability of alternatives to clearcutting: discussion and literature review with emphasis on southeast Alaska. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-594. Portland, Oregon: USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 37 p.

Cook, J.A., N.G. Dawson, and S.O. MacDonald. 2006. “Conservation of highly fragmented systems: The north temperate Alexander Archipelago.” Biological Conservation 133: 1-15.

Concannon, J. 1995. Characterizing structure, microclimate and decomposition of peatland, beachfront, and newly-logged forest edges in southeastern Alaska. Dissertation. University of Washington.

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Cotter, P., and M. Kirchhoff. 2007. “Marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus).” In: A conservation assessment and resource synthesis for the Coastal Forests and Mountains Ecoregion in the Tongass National Forest and Southeast Alaska. The Nature Conservancy and Audubon Alaska. Anchorage. Available online at: https://www.conservationgateway.org/ConservationByGeography/NorthAmerica/UnitedStates/alaska/seak/era/cfm/Documents/7.3_MarbleMurrelet.pdf (accessed March 14, 2017).

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Dahlheim, M.E., P.A. White, and J.M. Waite. 2009. “Cetaceans of Southeast Alaska: distribution and seasonal occurrence.” Journal of Biogeography 36: 410-426.

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Davis, S.D. 1990. “Prehistory of Southeastern Alaska.” In Handbook of North American Indians, Vol. 7, Northwest Coast. W. Suttles, editor. Washington, D.C.: Smithsonian Institution Press. pp. 197-202.

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Deal, R.L. 1999. The effects of partial cutting on stand structure and growth, and forest plant communities of western hemlock-Sitka spruce stands in Southeast Alaska. Dissertation. Oregon State University.

Deal, R.L. 2001. “The effects of partial cutting on forest plant communities of western hemlock-Sitka spruce stands in southeast Alaska.” Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31: 2067-2079.

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Deal, R.L., and J.C. Tappeiner. 2002. The effects of partial cutting on stand structure and growth of western hemlock-Sitka spruce stands in southeast Alaska. USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, Juneau, AK.

DeGange, A. 1996. A Conservation Assessment for the Marbled Murrelet in Southeast Alaska. PNW-GTR-388. Juneau, Alaska: USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.

Dellasala, D.A., J.C. Hagar, K.A. Engel, W.C. McComb, R.L. Fairbanks, and E.G. Campbell. 1996. “Effects of silvicultural modifications of temperate rainforest on breeding and wintering bird communities, Prince of Wales Island, Southeast Alaska.” The Condor 98: 706-721.

Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 1990. Listing of Stellar Sea Lions as Threatened under Endangered Species Act with Protective Regulations. Federal Register. Vol 55, April 5, 1990, pp. 12645. (55 FR 12645)

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Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2016. Endangered and Threatened Species; Identification of 14 Distinct Population Segments of the Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) and Revision of Species-wide Listing; Final Rule. Federal Register Vol. 81, September 8, 2016, pp. 62259-62320. (81 FR 62259)

Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service. Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Identification of 14 Distinct Population Segments of the Humpback Whale and Revision of Species-wide Listing; Final Rule. Federal Register Vol. 81, December 21, 2016, pp. 93639-93641. (81 FR 93639)

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Glaser, P.H., 1999. The Impact of Forestry Roads on Peatlands within the Tongass National Forest, Southeast Alaska. Unpublished white paper.

Godbout, G., and J.P. Ouellet. 2008. “Habitat selection of American marten in a logged landscape at the southern fringe of the boreal forest.” Ecoscience 15(3): 332-342.

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Hawksworth, F.G. 1977. The 6-class dwarf mistletoe rating system. General Technical Report RM-48. Fort Collins, Colorado: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station. 7 p.

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Heithecker, T. and C. Halpern. 2007. “Edge-related gradients in microclimates in forest aggregates following structural retention harvests in western Washington.” Forest and Ecology Management 24(8): 163-173.

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USDA Forest Service. 2013a. Forest Health Conditions in Alaska 2012. Protection Report R10-PR-32. Anchorage, Alaska: USDA Forest Service, Alaska Region. 89 p.

USDA Forest Service. 2013b. Wrangell-Petersburg Integrated Weed Management Project. EA, DN, and FONSI. USDA Forest Service, Tongass National Forest.

USDA Forest Service. 2015. Tongass National Forest Wrangell Ranger District; Alaska; Wrangell Island Project Environmental Impact Statement: Corrected Notice of Intent. Federal Register Vol. No. 80, October 27, 2015, pp. 65691-65692. (80 FR 65691)

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USDA Forest Service. 2016a. Forest Health Conditions in Alaska 2015. A Forest Health Protection Report. Protection Report R10-PR-038. Anchorage, Alaska: USDA Forest Service, Alaska Region. 90 pp. Available online at: http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd491888.pdf (accessed March 15, 2017).

USDA Forest Service. 2016b. Land and Resource Management Plan. Management Bulletin R10-MB-769j. December.

USDA Forest Service. 2016c. Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan, Final Environmental Impact Statement Plan Amendment, Volume I. Management Bulletin R10-MB-769e. June.

USDA Forest Service. 2016d. Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan, Final Environmental Impact Statement Plan Amendment, Volume II. Management Bulletin R10-MB-769f. June.

USDA Forest Service. 2016e. Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan, Record of Decision. Management Bulletin R10-MB-769l. December.

USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). 2013. “PLANTS database.” Available online at: http://www.plants.usda.gov (accessed March 15, 2017).

United States Department of Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service). 1986. Recovery plan for the Pacific bald eagle. USDI Fish and Wildlife Service, Portland, Oregon.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2007. Queen Charlotte Goshawk Status Review. Juneau, Alaska: USFWS, Alaska Region, Juneau Fish and Wildlife Field Office. 173 p.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2008. Birds of Conservation Concern. Arlington, Virginia: USDI Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Bird Managements.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2010. Scoping comments for the Wrangell Island project. USDI Fish and Wildlife Service, Juneau, AK.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2015. Species status assessment for the Alexander Archipelago wolf (Canis lupus ligoni). Version 1.0, December 2015. Alaska Region, Anchorage, Alaska. 162 pp.

United States Geological Survey and USDA, Natural Resources Conservation Service. 2013. Federal Standards and Procedures for the National Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD). U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 11–A3, 4th edition. 63 p. Available online at: http://pubs.usgs.gov/tm/tm11a3/ (accessed March 15, 2017).

University of Alaska Museum Herbarium (UAMH). 2015. ARCTOS specimen database. Retrieved January 13, 2012, from http://arctos.database.museum/ (accessed March 15, 2017).

University of Washington. 2015. Consortium of Pacific Northwest Herbaria specimen database. Retrieved January 13, 2012, from http://www.pnwherbaria.org/data/search.php (accessed March 15, 2017).

Vennesland, R.G., and R.W. Butler. 2004. “Factors influencing great blue heron nesting productivity on the Pacific coast of Canada from 1998-1999.” Waterbirds 27(3): 289-296.

Vennesland, R.G., and R.W. Butler. 2011. “Great blue heron (Ardea herodias).” The Birds of North America Online. A. Poole, ed. Ithaca, New York: Cornell Lab of Ornithology. Available online at: http://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/025 (accessed March 15, 2017).

Vermillion, R. 2012. Estimating costs of the Tongass Timber Program. Unpublished report. December.

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Vose, J.M., D.L. Peterson, and T. Patel-Weynand, editors. 2012. Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: A comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S. forest sector. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870. Portland, Oregon: USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 265 p.

Wemple, B.C., J.A. Jones, and G.E. Grant 1996. “Channel Network Extension by Logging Roads in Two Basins, Western Cascades, Oregon.” Journal of the American Water Resources Association 32: 1195.

Widén, Per. 1997. “How, and why, is the goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) affected by modern forest management in Fennoscandia?” Journal of Raptor Research 31: 107-113.

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Wolken, J., T. Hollingsworth, T. Rupp, F. Chapin, III, S. Trainor, T. Barrett, P. Sullivan, A. McGuire, E. Euskirchen, P. Hennon, E. Beever, J. Conn, L. Crone, D. D’Amore, N. Fresco, T. Hanley, K. Kielland, J. Kruse, T. Patterson, E. Schuur, D. Verbyla, J. Yarie. 2011. “Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska’s forest ecosystems.” Ecosphere 2: 124.

Wu, T.H., W.P. McKinnell III, D.N. Swanston. 1979. “Strength of tree roots and landslides on Prince of Wales Island, Alaska.” Canadian Geotechnical Journal 16: 19-33.

Ziemer, R.R. 1981. “The role of vegetation in the stability of forested slopes.” Proceedings of the International Union of Forest Research Organizations XVII IUFRO World Conference. pp. 297-308.

Ziemer, R.R., and D.N. Swanston. 1977. Root Strength Changes after Logging in Southeast Alaska. PNW-306. Portland, Oregon: USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.

Index

A Alaska Mental Health Trust, 2, 14, 16, 57, 64, 65, 66, 68,

74, 95, 99, 103, 107, 111, 114, 116, 119, 123, 124, 126, 155, 167, 168, 188, 204, 212, 214, 220, 235, 248, 255, 261, 262, 263, 264, 265, 266, 268, 270, 276

Alaska rein orchid, 32, 208, 209, 211 Alaska yellow-cedar

decline, 170, 173, 174, 175, 239, 240, 245 regeneration, 173

Aleutian holly fern, 205 annualized jobs, 12, 69, 71, 72, 73

B biogeographic province, 13, 79, 81, 103 black bear, 77 brown bear, 77, 86, 110 brown creeper, 77, 87, 112

C Canada goose, 77, 91, 120 carbon sequestration, 30, 169, 171, 173, 174 clearcutting, ii, iv, v, vi, 7, 8, 12, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 32, 69,

70, 74, 86, 91, 96, 105, 106, 123, 125, 131, 132, 133, 154, 176, 182, 188, 212, 226, 233, 241, 243, 245, 251, 273, 275

climate change, xv, 16, 67, 168, 169, 171 common hawkweed, 216, 217 conservation strategy, 24 corridors (old-growth connectivity), iii, iv, v, vi, 13, 18, 19,

20, 21, 24, 81, 82, 98, 105, 116, 124, 188, 273, 276

D decay fungi, 238, 245 deer, 77, 82, 87, 117, 172, 256, 258, 259, 264, 266, 268 deer model, x, xi, 28, 29, 91, 259 distance zones, xvii, 13, 56, 127, 128, 129, 130, 132 Dungeness crab, 196, 257 dwarf mistletoe, 238, 241, 243, 245

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E Earl West, iv, v, vi, 9, 13, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 66, 73, 74,

99, 107, 111, 115, 116, 119, 128, 132, 154, 157, 158, 167, 168, 177, 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 187, 188, 191, 193, 195, 197, 213, 216, 217, 218, 220, 225, 233, 235, 247, 262, 263, 265, 267, 268, 270

ecosystem services, 248 Edible thistle, 32, 208, 209, 211 elevational corridor (wildlife), vi, 20, 243, 246 employment, x, xvi, 28, 70, 71 endemic species, 76, 93 Environmental Justice, xv, 15, 67, 205 essential fish habitat (EFH), 2, 196, 197, 198, 199

F fish passage, 9, 159, 163, 196 fish species, 175, 197 fish stream crossing, 159 fisheries, 2, xiii, 11, 15, 82, 197 floodplains, 15, 55, 184, 198 forest health, 170, 173, 235, 237, 239, 240, 243, 244, 245,

246, 248 forest health and productivity, 248

G game management unit (GMU), 57, 257 goshawk, 76, 78, 81, 83, 95, 101 great blue heron, 77, 92, 122 greenhouse gasses, 169, 170, 174

H hairy woodpecker, 77, 87, 112 Highbush Lake, 11, 129, 132, 225, 233 humpback whale, 76, 77, 80, 82, 83, 94, 95

I income, xvi, 31, 70, 71, 72, 205 incomplete and unavailable information, 67, 249 invasive plants, 23, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 220 inventoried roadless area (IRA), 2, 25, 31, 57, 58, 85, 103,

106, 108, 234, 262, 269 irreversible and/or irretrievable commitments, i, 1, 64,

199, 252, 254

K karst, 67, 80, 200 Kunk Creek, 177, 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 186, 187, 188,

189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 196

L land ownership, x, xi, xvi, xvii, xviii, xix, 11, 13, 28, 29, 58,

64, 68, 79, 80, 99, 100, 101, 103, 104, 107, 108, 109, 111, 112, 115, 119, 120, 122, 123, 154, 212, 259, 260, 261, 262

land use designation (LUD), 2, 13, 56, 58, 117, 127, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 153, 164, 213, 236

landings, i, xiv, 22, 33, 209, 210, 252, 271, 273, 274, 275 landslides, 250, 252, 253 log storage, 22, 158 log transfer facility (LTF), 23, 157 logging systems, iv, v, vi, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 74, 218,

245, 276 Long Lake, iii, iv, vi, 9, 13, 18, 19, 21, 129, 132, 133, 177,

181, 182, 184, 185, 187, 189, 191, 193, 225, 233, 234, 253, 272, 273

Lung lichen, 31, 208, 209, 211

M management indicator species (MIS), 2, xvi, 76, 78, 84, 85,

86, 87, 91 marbled murrelet, 77, 92, 123 marine access facilities, xiv, 22, 94, 95, 157, 158, 197, 199,

225 marine environment, 196 marten, xi, 29, 76, 81, 85, 87, 104 mass wasting, 248, 249, 250 McCormack Creek, xiv, 9, 25, 129, 177, 181, 182, 183, 184,

185, 186, 187, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 273

meadow hawkweed, 216, 217 Midpoint, 221, 227 migratory birds, 15, 78, 94, 125 Mill basin, iii, iv, v, vi, xix, 9, 13, 18, 19, 20, 21, 132, 133,

147, 227, 234 mitigation and monitoring, 204, 214 Mountain lady’s slipper, 32, 209, 211

N Nemo Point, 128, 132 Nemo-Skip Loop, 128, 129, 132, 225, 233 North Wrangell, 58, 221, 227

O Old Hermit, 9, 221, 227 old-growth reserves (OGR), 24, 85 orange hawkweed, 216, 217, 218 otter, 77, 87, 116 oxeye daisy, 216, 217, 218

Lists and References 4

Wrangell Island Project FEIS ♦ 285

P Pat Creek, iv, v, vi, 9, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 66, 73, 157,

158, 177, 181, 183, 184, 185, 186, 187, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 195, 197, 216, 254

patch size, 105 present activities, 211 productive old-growth (POG), vi, 21, 102, 235 public involvement, 1, 8, 55

Q Queen Charlotte goshawk, 76, 78, 81, 83, 95, 101

R rare plants, 209, 211 recreation opportunity spectrum (ROS), 226 recreation places, 9, 58, 128, 129, 132, 221, 225, 227, 233 red squirrel, 77, 87, 115 red-breasted sapsucker, 77, 87, 112 reed canary grass, 217, 218 Regeneration and Species Composition, 244, 245 riparian management areas, 2, 22, 105, 126, 184, 185, 188,

189, 190, 192, 194, 198, 199, 253 road

National Forest System, 64, 155, 264, 267 temporary, ii, iii, iv, v, vi, ix, xii, xviii, 7, 14, 18, 19, 20,

21, 22, 27, 30, 31, 155, 156, 160, 161, 163, 165, 166, 167, 168, 186, 187, 219, 248, 249, 252, 253, 254, 262, 263, 264, 265, 266, 267, 268, 269, 270

road construction, ix, x, xiv, 25, 27, 28, 75, 251 road density, xi, 29 road maintenance, 64, 70, 131, 156, 160, 162, 210, 218,

220, 276 road maintenance and reconditioning, 156 rock quarries, 22, 158, 209, 210, 213, 216, 217, 218, 219,

254, 274

S Salamander Creek, xiv, 25, 128, 177, 181, 183, 184, 185,

186, 187, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 196, 225 Salamander Ridge, xix, 9, 129, 151, 225, 233 salmon, 81, 84, 85, 86, 110, 172, 196, 202, 203, 256, 257,

269, 270 scenic integrity objective (SIO), xvii, 13, 127, 128, 130, 132,

133, 134, 153 sedimentation and turbidity, 9, 94, 175, 199, 204, 253, 254 short-term use, 156 Silver Bay Mill, 158 silvicultural systems, 236, 240, 242, 243, 245, 246

even-aged management, 32, 240, 241, 245 intermediate treatments, 241 uneven-aged management, 32, 118, 240, 242, 243, 245,

246 silviculture

species composition, 58, 210, 235, 236, 237, 240, 241, 243, 244, 245, 246, 247, 248, 273

stand structure, 237, 243 size-density model, 79 small sales, iii, iv, v, vi, xiv, 18, 19, 20, 24, 69, 131 soil productivity, 64, 248, 249, 250, 251, 254, 272 soils

landslides, 155, 175, 198, 210, 248, 251, 253, 254, 255 mass wasting, 248, 249, 250 slopes greater than 67 percent gradient, 255, 256 slopes greater than 72 percent gradient, 248, 255 unstable slopes, 248, 255

stream buffers, 24, 25, 103, 108, 109, 116, 117, 121, 247, 262, 263, 265, 266, 268, 269

stream class, 175, 198 stream crossing, xviii, 31, 163, 175, 187, 188, 189, 190,

191, 192, 194, 195, 196, 198, 216, 217, 219 streamflow, 175, 181, 182 subsistence, 12, 69, 87, 155, 172, 204, 256, 259, 262, 263,

264, 265, 266, 267, 268, 269, 270, 271 deer, 77, 82, 87, 117, 172, 256, 258, 259, 264, 266, 268

suitable forest land, 130

T Thoms Creek, 9, 66, 129, 202, 213, 218, 225, 233 Thoms Lake, 21, 66, 213, 225, 234, 272, 273 threatened, endangered, and sensitive species, xvi, 76, 77,

82 plants, xv, 65, 67, 205, 206 rare plants, 209, 211, 213 sensitive plants, 31, 32, 208, 209, 211

threeleaf foamflower, 209, 211, 213 timber availability, 55 timber economics, ii, xiv, 55, 65, 66, 68 timber market, xv, 68 trail

temporary, 156 travel management, 2, ii, i, iii, iv, v, vi, xiii, xiv, 1, 8, 14, 18,

19, 20, 21, 55, 64, 66, 102, 155, 159, 160, 161, 162, 163, 164, 165, 166, 220, 227, 234 costs, 165, 166

Tribal consultation, 200

U unavoidable adverse impacts, 199

V value comparison unit (VCU), 2, xvi, xvii, xix, 6, 13, 15, 17,

57, 58, 79, 81, 96, 97, 100, 113, 114, 115, 127, 130, 132, 133, 153, 154, 235, 247

vegetation, 74, 113, 184, 235, 236, 237 visual priority route (VPR), 2, 127, 241 visual sensitivity, 155 vole, 77, 93, 124

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Wrangell Island Project FEIS ♦ 286

W water quality, 9, 14, 21, 22, 56, 77, 94, 116, 117, 121, 155,

175, 177, 178, 184, 197, 199, 252, 273 wetlands, 23, 33, 55, 82, 86, 121, 122, 184, 188, 196, 271,

272, 273, 274, 275, 276 effects, 271, 272, 274, 275, 276

wildlife analysis area (WAA), 2, xi, xvi, xvii, xviii, xix, 13, 29, 57, 79, 80, 81, 91, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 122, 123, 124, 258, 259, 260, 261, 263, 265, 266, 267, 268

windthrow, 198, 207, 210, 235, 236, 237, 238, 239, 241, 244, 245, 247, 249, 250

wolf, 76, 81, 84, 88, 101

Y young growth, i, ii, x, xvii, 4, 5, 12, 28, 80, 81, 82, 93, 110,

112, 121, 122, 131, 153, 154, 242, 245, 247 Yunshookuh, 225

Z Zimovia Strait, xix, 4, 13, 87, 132, 149, 177, 181, 182, 183,

184, 185, 186, 187, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 196, 225, 233

Appendix A Rationale for Scheduling the Wrangell Island Project

Wrangell Island Project FEIS ♦ 287

Appendix A - Rationale for Scheduling the Wrangell Island Project

Introduction Coordinated timber harvest project planning is essential for meeting the goals of the Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan (Forest Plan) and to provide an orderly and predictable flow of timber to the local forest products industry. To determine the volume of timber to offer each year, the Forest Service can look to current market conditions and level of industry operations. However, the planning process for timber harvest projects also requires the Forest Service to rely on projections of future harvest levels to determine quantity and type of timber harvest projects to initiate each year. Appendix A explains how the Forest Service uses information about future markets, observations regarding the past, and current conditions to determine the volume of timber harvest that needs to be initiated through the planning process on an annual basis. Appendix A relies on the annual timber demand analysis and the most recent project schedule.

Appendix A meets two primary objectives: 1) explain why this project was selected for inclusion into the Tongass National Forest (Tongass) Timber Program; and 2) explain the basis and components of the Tongass Timber Program. To accomplish these objectives, Appendix A addresses the following questions:

1. How does the Wrangell Island Project fit into the greater Tongass Timber Program?

2. How does the Forest Service decide where timber harvest projects are located?

3. Why is timber from the Tongass National Forest being offered?

4. How does the Forest Service develop forecasts regarding future timber market demand?

5. What steps must be completed to prepare a contract for offer?

6. How does the Forest Service maintain an orderly and predictable timber program?

How Does the Wrangell Island Project Fit into the Greater Tongass Timber Program? The Wrangell Island Project is designed to respond to the July 2, 2013 Secretary of Agriculture’s Memorandum 1044-009, Addressing Sustainable Forestry in Southeast Alaska, by proposing the commercial harvest of old-growth timber that will contribute to the supply of timber needed to maintain timber industry infrastructure and job skills during the transition to young-growth management. Furthermore, the Secretary’s Memorandum 1044-009 reinforced Department intent to maintain Southeast Alaska’s natural resources while also supporting economic opportunity for communities located within and adjacent to the Tongass National Forest. The Wrangell Island Project, the first proposed timber project following the amendment of the Forest Plan (2016), is of particular relevance to maintaining timber industry infrastructure, job skills, and supporting local and regional economic opportunity during this time of transition.

This project also contributes to the Tongass Timber Program planning objective of providing an orderly flow of timber from planning through harvest to meet timber supply requirements. A position statement regarding Wrangell Island Project’s timber sale harvest plan (see Gate 1 – Initial Planning of Timber Sale Project) was completed to document that this project warrants additional investment of funds and personnel and that it is reasonable to be conducting an environmental analysis at this point in time. Anticipated budget allocations and resources were sufficient to prepare and offer this project.

Appendix A

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The Wrangell Island Project is currently in Gate 2 – Project Analysis and Design (see Gate 2 – Project Analysis and Design (and Decision)) and involves environmental analysis and public disclosure as required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). A no-action alternative is also being analyzed. If an action alternative is selected in the decision for this project, this volume will be added to the volume available for offer.

This project meets all laws and regulations governing the removal of timber from National Forest System lands, including Forest Service policies as described in Forest Service manuals and handbooks, the Forest Plan, and Record of Decision.

Why is This Project Occurring in This Location? The Wrangell Island Project proposed action is located on Wrangell Island, wholly-within the Wrangell Ranger District and encompasses 4,767 acres of National Forest System lands. Site-specific reasons the Wrangell Island Project is occurring in this location include accessibility, Forest Plan compliance, land suitability, and impacts to other forest uses:

• Access – The project area is on Wrangell Island which has an existing road system to access proposed timber harvest units, two existing log transfer facilities that facilitate moving the timber off the island if needed for access, and small sawmills. The remaining medium-sized mill in Southeast Alaska is on relatively nearby Prince of Wales Island which could process a larger timber sale.

• Lack of Available Timber Volume – Much of the volume available to offer (Table 92), it has gone through environmental analysis and has a decision (NEPA), is now expected to appraise negative since these projects were created during a better market and cannot be offered at this time. See Pool 2 – Timber Volume Available for Offer. To maintain the timber industry in the midst of a down market and the transition to young growth, this project is needed at this time because it is anticipated that positive contracts can be created from the alternatives analyzed even though the preliminary financial efficiency analysis results from FASTR is negative as a whole (see FEIS, Issue 1).

• Community benefits – The project location is connected to the greater Wrangell community using a public road system. Connection to a community, which is also connected by commercial air service, barge lines and the Alaska marine Highway system, encourages direct and indirect employment and revenue through the supply of personnel, goods, and services.

• Forest Plan – Proposed harvest units are within lands identified as suitable as established by the Forest Plan, appendix A.

• Suitability – The project area contains sufficient acres of suitable forest land to make this timber harvest proposal reasonable. Areas with suitable timber need to be considered for harvest in order to provide a supply of timber from the Tongass National Forest which 1) meets the annual market demand for such forest, and 2) meets the market demand from such forest for each planning cycle, pursuant to Section 101 of the Tongass Timber Reform Act (TTRA). An explanation of these market demands is in the decision for the Forest Plan (USDA Forest Service 2016d, pp. 26 through 31).

• Transition to young-growth management – The 2016 Forest Plan Amendment was designed to expedite the Tongass National Forest to transition to young-growth management. Currently, most of the mills in Southeast Alaska are configured to handle and manufacture old-growth logs. In order for the timber industry to successfully survive this transition, a certain amount of old-growth ‘bridge’ timber needs to be offered until the young growth is commercially acceptable for the markets. At this time, most of the young-growth market involves export either out of Alaska

Appendix A

Wrangell Island Project FEIS ♦ 289

to other states or overseas. Therefore, in order to supply the local mills, a stable amount of old-growth timber must be offered. Wrangell Island is a source for this timber.

• Multiple and differing size of offers – The Wrangell Island Project is designed to be offered over several years in multiple timber contract offers. The volume that needs to be logged by helicopter may be offered in one contract that may need to be purchased by a larger operator, although microsales may also be feasible. Smaller units that can be logged with ground-based equipment could be bid on by a small operator.

• Subsistence – Timber harvest impacts on subsistence resources are projected to have few differences based on the sequence of harvest locations across the Tongass National Forest. Furthermore, timber harvests in other locations on the Tongass National Forest are expected to have similar potential effects on other resources, including subsistence resources, because of widespread distribution of subsistence use and other factors. Harvest within other areas is foreseeable under the Forest Plan.

Why is Timber Volume from the Tongass Being Offered for Sale?

National Legislation At the national level, the legislative record is clear regarding the role of the timber program in the multiple-use mandate of the national forests. One of the original objectives for creation of national forests was to provide natural resources, including timber, for the American public. The Organic Administration Act of 1897 (partially repealed in 1976) directed the agency to manage the forests in order to "improve and protect the forest ... [and] for the purpose of securing favorable conditions of water flows, and to furnish a continuous supply of timber for the use and necessities of the citizens of the United States" (emphasis added). The Multiple-Use Sustained Yield Act of 1960 directs the Forest Service to administer Federal lands for “outdoor recreation, range, timber, watershed, and wildlife and fish purposes.”

The National Forest Management Act (NFMA) of 1976 states that “the Secretary of Agriculture...may sell, at not less than appraised value, trees, portions of trees, or forest products located on National Forest System lands.” Although the heart of NFMA is the land management planning process for national forests, the Act also sets policy direction for timber management and public participation in Forest Service decision making. Under NFMA, the Forest Service is directed to “limit the sale of timber from each national forest to a quantity equal to or less than a quantity which can be removed from such forest annually in perpetuity on a sustained-yield basis.”

NFMA directs the Forest Service to complete land management plans for all units of the National Forest System. Forest plans are developed by an interdisciplinary team to provide for the coordination of outdoor recreation, range, timber, watershed, wildlife and fish, and wilderness uses. Forest plans designate areas of national forest where different management activities and uses are considered appropriate, including those areas suitable for timber harvest.

Alaska-Specific Legislation Timber volume from the Tongass National Forest is being offered as part of the multiple-use mission of the Forest Service identified in the public laws guiding the agency. In addition, Alaska-specific legislation and the Tongass Forest Plan directs the Forest Service to seek to provide timber to meet market demand, subject to certain limitations.

The Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) and the Tongass Timber Reform Act (TTRA) provide overall direction on the issue of Tongass National Forest timber supply. TTRA, Section

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Wrangell Island Project FEIS ♦ 290

101 deleted ANILCA, Section 705 (a), which mandated a fixed timber supply and fixed budget appropriations, and inserted the following:

Sec. 705. (a) Subject to appropriations, other applicable law, and the requirements of the National Forest Management Act of 1976 (P.L. 94-588); except as provided in subsection (d) of this section, the Secretary shall, to the extent consistent with providing for the multiple use and sustained yield of all renewable forest resources, seek to provide a supply of timber from the Tongass National Forest which (1) meets the annual market demand for timber from such forest and (2) meets the annual market demand from such forest for each planning cycle.

Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan The Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan (Forest Plan), as amended, guides all natural resource management activities and establishes management standards and guidelines for the Tongass National Forest. It describes resource management practices, levels of resource production and management, and the suitability of lands for different kinds of resource management. In short, the Forest Plan embodies the provisions of the National Forest Management Act (NFMA), the implementing regulations, and other guiding documents. The multiple-use goals and objectives, and the land use prescriptions and standards and guidelines, constitute a comprehensive statement of the Forest Plan's management direction.

The Forest Plan was completed in 1979 and revised in 1997. The 1997 revision was amended in 2008 to respond to a Ninth Circuit Court ruling and the 2005 5-year review. A subsequent amendment was signed in December 2016 to transition the Tongass National Forest into young-growth timber management based on the Secretary of Agriculture’s issued Memorandum 1044-009 and the 2013 5-year review. The Forest Plan defines appropriate activities within each of 19 land use designations (LUDs) and other administrative boundaries.

The environmental effects analysis in the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) for the Forest Plan revision (1997) assumed the maximum timber harvest allowed under each alternative would occur annually over the next 100 years. In that way, the Forest Plan analysis could display the maximum environmental effects that could be reasonably foreseen using the management practices in place at that time. However, substantially less timber volume and acres have actually been harvested than the maximum level allowed under the decision for the 1997 Forest Plan. Thus, effects on other resources are expected to be less than projected.

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Figure 33. Tongass Timber Volume Harvested (MMBF) for Fiscal Years 2001-2016

USDA Investment Strategy for Creating Jobs and Healthy Communities in Southeast Alaska After consecutive decades of population loss, Southeast Alaska and its 32 communities have experienced some population stabilization in recent years. However, socioeconomic community conditions remain tenuous with declining school enrollments, high energy costs, and limited job opportunities in many rural communities.

USDA agencies (Farm Service Agency, Forest Service, and Rural Development) and the US Economic Development Administration (USEDA) have partnered to support community revitalization through investment in economic development planning, restoration-based job creation, and community capacity building. Overall USDA investment strategy goals include:

• creating quality jobs and sustainable economic growth; • promoting small business creation, expansion, and retention; • improving access to capital; and • promoting job training and educational opportunities.

To support regional economic opportunity, USDA agencies collaborated with local business and community leaders to implement an industry cluster-based approach to economic development – the Southeast Alaska Cluster Initiative as facilitated by the Juneau Economic Development Council (JEDC). During the past 5 years (2010 to 2015), the USDA invested $1,030,000 in the Southeast Alaska Cluster Initiative via primarily Forest Service and Rural Development agencies. June 2015 marked a significant milestone for the Southeast Alaska Cluster Initiative as it signified nearly 5 years of USDA investment in implementing a strategic approach to regional economic development including economic research, asset mapping, cluster work group facilitation, and consult regarding regional economic development opportunities.

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While the Forest Service discontinued funding for the Southeast Alaska Cluster Initiative in 2015, significant staff resources remain invested to ensure the long-term sustainability of the overall effort. USDA agencies continue to work together to align resources, focus investments, and collaborate to encourage economic diversification and community well-being across Southeast Alaska.

Transition to Young-Growth Timber On July 2, 2013, the Secretary of Agriculture issued Memorandum 1044-009, Addressing Sustainable Forestry in Southeast Alaska, to support the transition away from old-growth timber harvesting towards a forest industry based on the utilization of young-growth timber. The memorandum states “to conserve the Tongass National Forest under the principles of the Multiple-Use Sustained-Yield Act of 1960, Tongass Timber Reform Act and other relevant statutes, we must speed the transition away from old-growth timber harvesting and towards a forest industry that utilizes second-growth – or young-growth – forests. Moreover, we must do this in a way that preserves a viable timber industry that provides jobs and opportunities for residents of Southeast Alaska.” Secretary’s Memorandum 1044-009 provided the impetus and guidance for the 2016 Forest Plan Amendment.

Retaining the existing forest products industry is recognized as critical to the successful transition to a predominantly young-growth timber management program; therefore, the transition to young-growth timber harvest will be managed at a pace that allows industry to adjust, adapt, and develop markets for new products. Furthermore, maintaining Southeast Alaska’s forest products industry’s expertise and infrastructure is important to supporting the regional economy while also pursuing ongoing development of other economic sectors including tourism, recreation, seafood and mariculture, and renewable energy.

The transition’s long-term goal is that the majority of active forest management on the Tongass National Forest will be comprised of ecological restoration, young-growth forest management, small and microsale old-growth timber sales and pre-commercial thinning. These projects would in turn supply local and regional wood products markets.

Old-growth “Bridge Timber” Pursuant to Secretary’s Memorandum 1044-009, the Forest Service is asked to seek opportunities to supply sufficient old-growth “bridge timber” while the industry re-tools for processing young growth. To achieve this, a supply of old-growth will continue to be offered while commercial young-growth timber processing and marketing opportunities are explored and developed. This will help maintain the existing workforce and retain local knowledge and experience as businesses retool toward smaller diameter wood utilization.

The amount of old-growth “bridge timber” harvested will decrease as more young-growth timber becomes economically feasible to harvest until it reaches a value of 5 million board feet (MMBF). The actual duration and scale at which old-growth “bridge timber” will be needed is unclear. The decision on the Forest Plan Amendment estimated the transition to 41 MMBF, in young-growth timber, will be reached at year 16 of implementation. However, this is dependent on many factors including: 1) the role of State and private land in contributing timber supply to maintain the timber industry; 2) the availability of young growth that is economic to harvest; 3) export and domestic processing policies; and 4) fluctuations in domestic and world markets for forest products must be considered, are unpredictable, and will influence the overall transition timeframe.

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How Does the Forest Service Develop Forecasts about Future Timber Market Demand? Consistent with the Tongass Timber Reform Act provisions, the Forest Service makes two types of market demand forecasts for Tongass National Forest timber. The first, “planning cycle market demand,” forecasts long-term demand for timber from the Tongass National Forest over the life of the Forest Plan, derived from trends in demand for manufactured end products. Based on these long-term projections, the Forest Service also estimates annual market demand in order to determine how much timber to plan to offer on an annual basis.

Market Demand for the Planning Cycle Research economists with the Forest Service’s Pacific Northwest (PNW) Research Station have prepared several studies of “planning cycle market demand” for Tongass timber, including general technical reports by Brooks and Haynes (1990, 1994, and 1997) and Brackley et al. (2006 and 2008). For the 2016 Forest Plan Amendment, a timber demand analysis by Daniels et al. (2016) was used.

Daniels et al. developed a baseline demand model, projecting from 2015 to 2030, to construct three scenarios representing alternative futures for timber harvest – all incorporating a transition from predominantly old-growth to young-growth timber harvest. Table 91 shows Daniels et al. (2016) projections for the scenarios in terms of total volume. This volume will be a mix of old-growth volume and young-growth volume over time. The baseline demand model assumes projected trends in imports, consumption, and market share will remain constant. Additional assumptions include softwood log exports from all owners will continue at current 5-year average, “other” production will remain constant, markets for utility logs and other low-grade material will remain elusive, and the large majority of residues are sold. Alternative future scenarios reflect conditions related to changing timber quality, growing wood energy markets, and rebounding housing market demand.

Scenario One incorporates the young-growth transition and resulting changing quality of timber from the Tongass National Forest over time. It includes a transition period of 10 years of tapering levels of old-growth harvest as the industry adjusts and more young growth becomes available. By 2025, old-growth harvest will be limited to 5 MMBF annually for small and micro sales designed to provide raw material for small businesses and specialty products. Prior to 2025, Scenario One reflects the baseline model.

Table 91. Tongass National Forest Timber Sale Volume to Meet Derived Demand

Year Baseline Scenario 1

Young Growth Transition

Scenario 2 Wood Energy

Growth

Scenario 3 Housing Market

Recovery

2015 40.9 40.9 40.9 40.8 2016 41.6 41.6 41.6 41.6 2017 42.3 42.3 43.4 42.5 2018 43.1 43.1 46.3 43.3 2019 43.8 43.8 49.2 44.1 2020 44.5 44.5 52.1 45.0 2021 45.3 45.3 55.1 45.8 2022 46.0 46.0 58.0 46.7 2023 46.7 46.7 60.9 47.5 2024 47.5 47.5 63.8 48.4 2025 48.2 44.0 63.0 45.0 2026 48.9 44.5 65.7 45.6

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Year Baseline Scenario 1

Young Growth Transition

Scenario 2 Wood Energy

Growth

Scenario 3 Housing Market

Recovery

2027 49.7 45.0 68.4 46.2 2028 50.4 45.5 71.0 46.8 2029 51.1 45.9 73.7 47.4 2030 51.9 46.4 76.4 47.9

Annual Average 46.4 44.6 58.1 45.3 Source: Tongass National Forest Timber Demand: Projections for 2015 to 2030 (Daniels et al. 2016) Note: Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 accommodate the transition to predominately young-growth timber harvest.

Scenario Two builds upon the first scenario by adding markets for wood energy products. It is Forest Service policy to support the conversion from distillate fuel to wood-based energy in Southeast Alaska’s residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Expanding markets for biomass energy will impact Tongass National Forest timber harvest by generating demand for two biomass sources – sawmill residues and low- and utility-grade logs. Scenario Two includes derived demand estimates as the conversion is phased in over time.

Scenario Three is motivated by uncertainty in the US housing market – a traditional driver of global lumber demand. Notably, Scenario Three assumes a higher trajectory for the market by considering only pre-recession (prior to 2007) domestic consumption growth rates. During recent years, US sawnwood consumption levels have grown at levels nearly matching those of the pre-recession housing boom. The third scenario is based on the possibility that domestic sawnwood demand growth will continue at a pre-recession rate throughout the projection period.

Demand for Tongass National Forest timber currently depends on markets for sawnwood and exports of softwood logs. Therefore, the model was most sensitive to changes in Pacific Rim log demand. Areas of uncertainty include the prospect of continuing changes in markets and competition, the impact of the transition to young-growth timber, and the rates of investment in manufacturing in Alaska. While transitioning to young-growth management is the purpose of the Forest Plan Amendment, a major step, following the example of successful sawmills in the Lower 48, would be for Southeast Alaska’s timber industry to retool its equipment to process smaller logs from younger trees. To do so, however, requires substantial investment over several years. More information regarding demand for Tongass National Forest timber is provided in the Forest Plan Amendment FEIS, appendix G (USDA Forest Service 2016c).

In short, the Wrangell Island Project will contribute to providing critical “bridge” timber to sustain the current industry and jobs in Southeast Alaska communities, while market opportunities are developed for Tongass young-growth forest products. Therefore, an underlying need exists for a reliable economic supply of sawtimber for Southeast Alaska sawmills to help support the timber industry and employment through the transition years until the industry can transition to a stable supply of young-growth timber.

Annual Market Demand The annual market demand forecast is based on a methodology used to set the short-term goals for the Tongass Timber Program – the volume the Tongass National Forest plans to offer in the current year, pending sufficient funding and sufficient NEPA-cleared volume.

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The formulas and procedures used in forecasting annual market demand are described in a Forest Service report titled Responding to the Market Demand for Tongass Timber (Morse 2000). These procedures, which have become known as the “Morse Methodology,” are based on the premise that:

• Forest product markets are volatile, especially in the short run. • Timber purchasers in Southeast Alaska have few alternative suppliers of timber if they cannot

obtain it from the Tongass National Forest. Oversupplying this market has relatively few adverse economic effects; undersupplying it can have much greater negative economic consequences.

• It takes years to prepare National Forest System timber for sale, including completion of environmental impact statements.

• It is difficult to estimate demand for timber from the Tongass National Forest, even a year or two in advance.

• Industry must be able to respond to rapidly changing market conditions in order to remain competitive.

Accordingly, the Morse Methodology establishes a system that considers factors such as sawmill capacity and utilization of that capacity, and seeks to build and maintain sufficient volume of timber under contract (i.e., timber purchased but not yet harvested) to allow the industry to react promptly to market fluctuations. Industry actions such as annual harvest levels are monitored and timber program targets are developed by estimating the amount of timber needed to replace volume harvested from year to year. The methodology is adaptive, because if harvest levels drop below expectations and other factors remain constant, future timber offerings would also be reduced to levels needed to maintain the target level of volume under contract. Conversely, if harvest levels rise unexpectedly, future timber volume targets would also increase sufficiently to ensure the inventory of volume under contract is not exhausted. By dealing with uncertainty in a flexible, science-based fashion, the Morse Methodology is an example of adaptive management.

The Morse Methodology originally used the projected harvest from the final 1997 Brooks and Haynes report. These procedures were adjusted (Grewe 2017) to use the annual projected harvest figures and scenarios from Daniels et al. 2016 to calculate the annual timber offer. Of noteworthy importance, Daniels et al. timber harvest projections inform the implementation of Morse Methodology, but did not result in changes to the basic procedure and underlying method outlined by Morse.

For fiscal year 2017, the goal for volume of timber to be offered is 53 MMBF. This goal is not intended to represent actual timber purchases. Rather, it reflects the estimated volume of timber the Forest Service needs to offer to replace the volume expected to be harvested and help build a 3-year supply of timber under contract, which allows the industry to respond to market fluctuations. The actual volume of timber offered in any given year, however, reflects a combination of factors including final budget appropriations, completing the NEPA process, the practice of offering smaller sales for smaller operators rather than all the volume from a NEPA decision, the statutory requirement that timber sales offered in the Alaska Region appraise positive, and volume affected by litigation. Due to these factors, the actual amount of timber that is offered and sold may be substantially less than the expected timber purchases as predicted in the annual demand calculations. The document displaying the most recent annual demand calculation and the factors used in these calculations are in the project record. Notably, the planned annual timber volume offer could include a combination of new, previously offered, and reconfigured timber sales. Both old- and young-growth green timber and salvage sales will be components of this program.

For planning and scheduling purposes, the Tongass uses a 5-year timber sale plan, which is consistent with Forest Service Manual 2430. This 5-year plan is based on completed and ongoing environmental analyses, and provides a plan that can be adjusted in response to changing market conditions and the NEPA public involvement process. Volume on outlying timber sales are estimates and may adjust

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considerably over time. The 5-year plan for 2017-2021 has been posted on the Tongass National Forest public website https://www.fs.usda.gov/main/tongass/home.

Both the “annual market demand” and the “planning cycle market demand” projections provide guidance to the Forest Service to request budgets, to make decisions about workforce and facilities, and to indicate the need to begin new environmental analysis for future program offerings. They also provide a basis for expectations regarding future harvest, and thus provide an important source of information for establishing the schedule of probable future offerings. The weight given to the projections will vary depending on a number of factors, such as how recently they were done and how well they appear to have accounted for recent, site-specific events in the timber market.

What Steps Must Be Completed to Prepare a Timber Contract for Offer? The Tongass Timber Program is complex. A number of projects are underway at any given point in time, each of which may be in a different stage of planning and preparation. A system of checkpoints, or “gates”, helps the Forest Service track the accomplishments of each stage of a project from inception to contract termination (See Forest Service Handbook 2409.18 – Timber Sale Preparation).

Gate 1 – Initial Planning of Timber Sale Project A timber sale project plan, often referred to as a position statement, is a brief analysis of the project area with the intent of determining the feasibility of a potential timber sale. After the position statement is developed, the Forest Service decides whether the project area merits continued investment of time and funds for completion (see Forest Service Handbook 2409.18, chapter 20).

Gate 2 – Project Analysis and Design (and Decision) This stage is commonly referred to as the “NEPA” phase and includes field work, public scoping, analysis including a financial efficiency analysis, draft disclosure of the effects of the project on the environment, public comment, final analysis and disclosure, decision, and potentially administrative appeals and litigation. Gate 2 activities must be completed before a contract is awarded. Legislation, policy changes, and appeals and litigation have recently extended completion of some projects, often doubling the desired time frame (see Forest Service Handbook 2409.18, chapter 30).

Gate 3 – Sale Plan Implementation and Appraisal (Preparation of a Timber Harvest Contract) During this stage, the sale plan information and direction included in the decision document from Gate 2 is used to layout units and design roads on the ground. Additional site-specific information is collected at this time. Gate 3 activities need to be complete before a contract is offered for bid (see Forest Service Handbook 2409.18, chapter 40).

Gate 4 – Final Package Preparation, Review, Appraisal, and Offering (Advertise a Contract) The costs and value associated with the timber volume designed in Gate 3 are appraised and packaged in a contract. The contract is a legally binding document that tells a prospective contractor how the timber must be harvested to conform to the project decision document. This step occurs during the final year of the project development and culminates with the advertisement of the project for sale (see Forest Service Handbook 2409.18, chapter 50).

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Gate 5 – Bid Opening Gate 5 is completed with the opening of bids for the project. If a bid is submitted, contractual provisions govern when the award of the contract takes place, the contract length and operation season, and how timber removal is to occur (see Forest Service Handbook 2409.18, chapter 60).

Gate 6 – Award a Contract Gate 6 is the formal and executed contract between a bidder and the Forest Service (see Forest Service Handbook 2409.18, chapter 70).

How Does the Forest Service Maintain an Orderly and Predictable Timber Program?

Pools of Timber (Pipeline Volume) As discussed earlier, the Forest Service tracks the accomplishment of the different steps of development of each timber harvest contract with the Gate System. From a timber program standpoint, it is also necessary to track and manage multiple projects as they move through the Gate System. Because of the timeframes needed to accomplish a given timber harvest project and the complexities inherent in that project and program development, it is necessary to track various timber program volumes from Gate 1 through Gate 6.

The goal of the Tongass National Forest is to provide an even flow of timber offerings on a sustained-yield basis to meet market demand. This has been difficult to accomplish due to a combination of uncertainties including: 1) delays related to appeals and litigation; 2) changing economic factors, such as rapid market fluctuations; and 3) industry-related factors, such as changes in timber industry processing capabilities. To achieve an even flow of timber volume offerings, ‘pools’ of volume in various stages of the Gate System are maintained so volume offered can be balanced against current year demand and market cycle projections.

Today, upward trends in demand are resolved by moving out-year timber projects forward, which may leave later years not capable of meeting the needs of the industry. In other instances, a number of new projects are started based on today’s market but will not be available for a number of years. By the time added projects are ready for offer, the market and demand for this volume may have changed. Three pools of timber volume are tracked to achieve an even flow of timber harvest offerings.

The objective of the timber pools concept is to maintain sufficient volume in preparation and under contract to be able to respond to yearly fluctuations in a timely manner. Table 92 displays the current estimated volume in each pool, as well as the goal which the Tongass has established for the volume to be maintained in each pool, based on historic patterns. Objections and litigation can cause timber harvest projects to be reevaluated, which can cause delays in making projects available to move through the pools, thereby not fully meeting the goals for volumes in each pool.

Pool 1 - Timber Volume under Analysis (Gate 1 and Gate 2) Volume in Gate 1, the initial planning step, represents a large amount of volume. This level offers the timber program manager a higher degree of flexibility and thus, does not greatly influence the flow of volume through the pipeline. A signed Project Plan (Forest Service Handbook 2409.18, chapter 20) is the completion of this gate. A Gate 1 has been completed for the Vallenar young-growth project on Gravina Island. Gate 1 reports are also planned to be completed for Prince of Wales Island, Zarembo Island and associated islands, Mitkof Island and part of Revillagigedo Island after timber inventory work has been completed. The total volume of timber available for each project is unknown until the inventory and

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analysis is completed. The amount of the volume identified at Gate 1 is subject to change during the Gate 2 analysis due to mitigation of resource concerns, Responsible Official decisions or public involvement.

Gate 2, timber volume under environmental analysis, includes projects being analyzed and undergoing public comment through the NEPA process. This pool includes any project that has started the scoping process through those projects ready to have a decision issued. In addition, tracking how much volume is involved in appeals or litigation may be necessary to determine possible effects on the flow of potential timber projects. A signed NEPA decision (Forest Service Handbook 2409.18, chapter 30) is the completion of this gate. Volume affected by objections and litigation is tracked as a subset of this pool (table 92). The other area under Gate 2 analysis at this time, in addition to the Wrangell Island project, is Saddle Lakes on Revillagigedo Island. Some small projects that are covered under Categorical Exclusions are also being analyzed.

Based on historic patterns, the Tongass National Forest has established a goal for the pipeline volume to be maintained in each of the timber pools. The goal for Pool 1 is to be maintained at approximately 4.5 times the amount of the projected harvest to account for the amount of time to complete projects at various stages of analysis. That goal reflects a number of factors which can lead to a decrease in volume available, such as a decision in Gate 1 to drop from further analysis in a particular planning area (called the “no go” decision), a falldown in estimated volume between Gate 1 and Gate 2, and volume not available for harvest due to litigation.

Pool 2 - Timber Volume Available for Sale (Gates 3, 4, and 5) Timber volume available for offer includes projects for which environmental analysis has been completed, and have had administrative appeals or objections and litigation resolved. Timber in this pool can include a combination of new offers, previously offered unsold contracts, and remaining volume from cancelled contracts. Enough volume in this pool is needed to maintain flexibility and stability in the timber program in order to schedule future offerings with the size and configuration that best meets market needs (USDA Forest Service 2016a, p. 2-5). At this time, this may include offering enough old-growth timber, such as the Wrangell Island Project, to assist industry to transition to young-growth management with a focus on maintaining current critical industry expertise and infrastructure. The goal is to maintain Pool 2 at approximately 1.3 times the amount of the projected harvest to allow flexibility and stability in offering contracts.

The size and species composition of timber sale contracts need to meet the configuration and markets of the Tongass-wide sawmills. The Forest Service plans sale offerings to encourage competitive bidding in a range of volumes to provide opportunities for businesses in Southeast Alaska. The goal is to match sale sizes to the needs of potential bidders in the area of interest while providing for cost-efficient operations (Forest Service Manual 2431.13).

While there appears to be 153 MMBF volume available to offer that has a completed NEPA analysis and decision (Table 92), most of this volume could not or would not be offered at this time for various reasons. Although projects may have a NEPA decision, contracts may not be offered from those projects if the volume appraises deficit as is the case with several projects with poorer timber or a lower-value marketable species mix; no prospective market in that location for that amount of volume; projects were either designed for small sales, or otherwise slated for small sales as part of the decision or as part of an informal appeal resolution, or if changed circumstances or policy would affect the ability to offer them.

An estimated 100 MMBF of the total Pool 2 volume would probably appraise negative and cannot be offered to be in accordance with the 2017 Appropriations Bill. Two of these larger projects are on the north end of the Tongass. A large offer would necessitate appraising it to a mill that can handle that amount of volume which would be on Prince of Wales Island increasing the transportation costs beyond the value of the timber. Other projects that are not proposed for offer do not have a currently marketable

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species mix and value, which may include young growth, enough volume to warrant mobilization, or an apparent lack of potential bidders based on prior experience. Whether an offer may appraise positive may change in the future depending on the market and other factors. If this appears to be the case, then an appraisal may be done and the volume offered.

A steady supply of old-growth timber is needed to support the current mills which are currently designed primarily to manufacture and market old-growth timber. Young-growth timber has been mostly destined for export. Over time, the existing industry may need to retool or new industries develop that can use more smaller-diameter timber typical of young-growth stands in order for the transition to young-growth management be successful. Therefore, it is important to look at the mix of old-growth and young-growth timber in Table 92 in relationship to the annual FY 17 timber demand. This also aligns with the analysis done for the 2016 Forest Plan Amendment (pp. 3-506 through 3-515) and the 2016 Forest Plan Amendment decision (pp. 7, 28 through 30). Young-growth timber volume available for offer (49 MMBF in Pool 2) may not meet the needs of some of the current Southeast Alaska industry participants.

The amount of volume to be offered annually as small sales is based on a determination of the approximate need of sawmills within close proximity of the project area and a consideration of the amount of volume currently under contract. Small volume contracts are generally offered in situations where: 1) the project is designed to be specifically allocated to small operators; 2) an allocation for smaller offers has made during the decision or during informal appeal or objection resolution meetings; and 3) harvest is within Phase 2 or 3 lands as determined by the Forest Plan. There are currently about 59 MMBF with completed environmental analysis (a NEPA-decision) slated for small sales, however, much of this volume (about 43 MMBF) is located in the north end of the Tongass National Forest where there are fewer small sawmills.

Delays at Gate 2 have affected contract preparation at Gate 3 and have made scheduling of offers uncertain. At Gate 4, contracts have been fully prepared and appraised, and are advertised for bids. This allows potential purchasers an opportunity to do their own evaluations of these offerings to determine whether to bid, and if so, at what level.

Pool 3 - Timber Volume under Contract (Gate 6) Timber volume under contract contains the volume that has been sold and a contract awarded to a purchaser, but which have not yet been fully harvested. Timber contracts typically give the purchaser initially at least three years to harvest and remove the timber purchased; however, they can be extended under certain circumstances, such as inoperable periods of weather, injunctions, and other contractual delays. Contract length is also based on the amount of timber in the contract and the accessibility of the area for mobilization. The longer the contract period, the more flexibility the operator has to remove the timber based on market fluctuations. This allows purchasers to have a continuous supply of timber volume available for harvest so they can plan their operations while maintaining flexibility for weather conditions, market fluctuations, and other unanticipated challenges. Therefore, one of the bases of the Morse methodology from which annual demand is determined is to build and maintain sufficient volume under contract (USDA Forest Service 2006d, p. 27) and one of the Forest Plan objectives is to maintain 3 years of volume under contract (USDA Forest Service 2006a, p. 2-5).

In the recent past and currently, maintaining the 3 years of volume under contract for all purchasers has been problematic because of lack of NEPA-cleared volume available in locations relatively adjacent to processing facilities, competition for certain types of sales in some areas, and the dedication of only offering small sales from some projects (see Table 92). This volume of timber is the industry’s dependable timber supply, allowing adaptability for business decisions. This practice is not limited to the Alaska Region, but is particularly pertinent to Alaska because of the nature of the land base. The relative absence of roads, the island geography, the steep terrain, results in the consequent remoteness of much of the

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suitable timber land base from timber operations necessitates that timber purchasers may need longer-than-average lead times to plan operations, stage equipment, set up camps, and construct roads prior to beginning timber harvest activities.

A combination of projected harvest and projected demand is used to estimate the volume needed to maintain an even-flow timber program. As purchasers harvest timber, they deplete the volume under contract. Timber harvest is then planned and offered to provide the forest products industry the opportunity to replace this volume and build or maintain their working inventory. Although there will be variation for practical reasons from year to year, in the long-run over both the high points and low points of the market cycle, the volume harvested should equal the timber volume sold.

Table 92. Accomplishments in Gate System and Timber Pools (MMBF) as of May 2017

Pipeline Pool Volume FY 2017 Goal

Total timber volume

Old-growth volume - larger

operators

Old-growth volume - small

sales only Young-growth

volume

Pool 1 Volume Under Analysis

(Gate 1 and 2) 238 1 63 to 115 N/A 4 N/A 4 3 to 4

Pool 2 Volume Available for

Offer (Gate 3, Gate 4, Gate 5)

69 2 153 49 59 5 45

Pool 3 Remaining Volume

Under Contract (Gate 6)

159 3 67 6 47 16 4

1 – Volume under analysis includes all timber volume in projects with a completed project plan (Gate 1) up to the completion of the decision on the environmental analysis (Gate 2). A range is shown to display the range of volume for the alternatives for the on-going Gate 2 projects. Volume under analysis goal should be approximately 4.5 times based on the 2017 annual timber demand of 53 MMBF. 2 – Volume Available for Offer includes the volume that has a completed Gate 2 NEPA document decision. All volume is considered whether it appraises deficit, slated for small sales, or may have an interested purchaser. The goal for volume available for offer which has a completed Gate 2 NEPA document is to have at least 1.3 times based on the 2017 annual timber demand. However, it does not include volume from the four projects involved with the Greenpeace deer model on-going litigation (Case No. 3:08-CV-0162-RRB). 3 – Estimated volume under contract available for harvest as of June 2017 not including settlement contracts as described by 36 CFR §223.12 and those contracts which are in the process of being terminated. Volume under contract goal is for purchasers to have three times the volume under contract – based on 53 MMBF annual timber demand. 4 –To be determined - Volume for smaller operators is determined either at the Gate 2 decision stage, at Gate 3 or by whether the successful bidder of the contract is considered to be a small operator. 5 – Most of this volume is on the north part of the Tongass National Forest, primarily the Hoonah and Juneau Ranger Districts. Most of this volume was restricted by a decision to offer only small sales. Other volume is within Phase 2 lands as identified through the Tongass Timber Program Adaptive Management Strategy (USDA Forest Service 2016d, p. 6).

How Objections and Litigation Affect the Tongass Timber Program Timber harvest projects require site-specific environmental analysis that usually is documented in an environmental assessment (EA) or an environmental impact statement (EIS). The public is notified of the analysis and is provided the opportunity to comment on project proposals.

This project will go through a pre-decisional administrative review process (36 CFR §218), which became effective March 27, 2013. This pre-decisional administrative review process is commonly referred to as an objection process. Under this process, individuals and entities may file objections after an environmental analysis document is completed but before a decision document is signed. This process builds on early participation and collaboration efforts, with the intent of resolving concerns before a

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decision is made. Often, to resolve points made during the objections process, the Objections Decision Officer requests that additional analysis is performed which may delay the scheduling of timber volume offers from the project.

After a project has advanced through the objection process, the project can still be litigated. Although litigation does not always preclude offering timber volume, the Forest Service and potential purchasers are often reluctant to enter into a contract where the outcome is uncertain. Since litigation can be a lengthy process, litigation can also affect the Tongass National Forest’s ability to provide a reliable timber supply. Often with an unfavorable decision, the court will vacate the project’s decision and no volume can be offered from that project. As of June 2017, the NEPA volume under litigation totals 33.4 MMBF and involves the Scott Peak, Overlook, Soda Nick, and Traitors Cove projects.

How Does The Forest Service Decide Where Timber Harvest Projects Should Be Located? The first consideration for where timber harvest projects should be located is to determine where the Forest Plan allows timber harvest to occur. The Forest Plan used the two-step process from the 2012 Planning Rule as outlined in FSH 1909.12, chapter 60. This results of this process are documented in Forest Plan, Appendix A, Identification of Lands Suitable for Timber Harvest Production and Limitations on Timber Harvest (USDA Forest Service 2016c).

The first step of this process is to identify and eliminate from consideration those lands not suitable for timber production based on legal and technical factors. This includes those lands where timber harvest is prohibited by statue, executive order, regulation or where administratively withdrawn. Examples of these include wilderness, national monuments, land use designation (LUD) II areas, stream buffers identified under the TTRA, Section 103, and inventoried roadless areas. Also included in the first step of the process are those lands not physically capable, such as non-forested lands, low-productive forest, lands that may be irreversibly damaged such as high-vulnerability karst, very steep unstable slopes or land that may not be able to be restocked with trees. The second step of this process includes the limitation of lands where the Forest Plan land use designation does not allow timber production, such as those classed as non-development LUDs or where prohibited by other standards and guidelines. In total, the Forest Plan ROD identified 338,973 acres of young growth and 229,606 acres of old growth where timber harvest is allowed (USDA Forest Service 2016d, p. 9).

Forest-level and District-level Planning The Tongass National Forest’s Forest Fupervisor is responsible for the overall management of the Tongass Timber Program. Included within these responsibilities is making the determination on the amount of timber volume to be made available to industry. Whether or not sufficient funding is appropriated to attain the program is the responsibility of the U.S. Congress and the President.

Using the land base where timber harvest is allowed, District Rangers develop a 5-year plan of potential timber harvest projects. The goal of the plan is to attain a forest offer level for the current year, and to develop a timber program for several years of the planning cycle. The offer level for the current year is based, to the extent possible, on the forecasted annual market demand. Actual demand may fluctuate from year to year due to short-term market fluctuations. Actual offer levels vary year to year depending on several factors, including volume in Gates 2 through 3, and current market conditions.

The District Ranger’s role is to develop and recommend to the Forest Supervisor timber harvest projects that meet Forest Plan goals and objectives. Districts work on various timber harvest projects simultaneously, resulting in continual movement of projects through the stages of the timber program pipeline. This schedule allows the necessary time to complete preliminary analysis, resource inventories,

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environmental documentation, field layout preparations and permit acquisition, appraisal of timber resource values, advertisement of contract characteristics for potential bidders, bid opening, and physical award of the contract. Project delays through the completion of Gate 2 attributable to legal injunctions and litigation have affected the offer level in recent years. Once all of the rangers’ recommendations are made and compiled into a consolidated schedule, the Forest Supervisor is responsible for the review and approval of the final timber harvest plan and prioritization of projects as necessary.

Considerations the District Ranger takes into account for each project include:

• If the project area contains a sufficient number of suitable timber acres and if the timber being considered for harvest can be achieved while meeting Forest Plan direction.

• Other resource uses and potential future uses of the area and of adjacent areas and of non-National Forest System lands.

• Areas where the investment necessary for project infrastructure (i.e., roads, bridges) is achievable with the estimated value of timber volume in the project area. The contract would allow any maintenance and upgrade of the facilities necessary for removal of timber volume where infrastructure already exists.

• Areas where investments for the project coincide with long-term management based on Forest Plan direction.

The implementation of timber projects depends in part on the final budget appropriation to the agency. In the event insufficient budget is allocated, or resolution of pending litigation or other factors delay projects, timber harvest projects are selected and implemented on a priority basis. Generally, the higher-priority projects where investments such as road networks, camps or log transfer facilities have already been established or where land management status is not under dispute. The distribution of projects across the Tongass National Forest is also taken into account to distribute the effects and to provide timber volume in proximity to timber processing facilities. Timber harvest projects scheduled for the current year that are not implemented, or the remaining volume of projects that are only partially implemented, are shifted to future years in the plan. The multi-year plan becomes very dynamic in nature due to the number of influences on each district.

Conclusion There is a long legislative history and recognition that timber harvest is one of the appropriate activities on national forests, starting with the founding legislation for national forests in 1897. The Organic Administration Act provides that national forests may be established “to improve and protect the forest within the boundaries, or for the purpose of securing favorable conditions of water flows, and to furnish a continuous supply of timber for the use and necessities of the citizens of the United States.”

US Congress’ policy for national forests, as stated in the Multiple-Use Sustained Yield Act of 1960, is “the national forests are established and shall be administered for outdoor recreation, range, timber, watershed, and wildlife and fish purposes.” Accordingly, US Congress authorizes the US Department of Agriculture’s secretary to sell trees and forest products from the national forests “at no less than appraised value.” The National Forest Management Act (NFMA) further directs that forest plans shall “provide for multiple use and sustained yield, and in particular, include coordination of outdoor recreation, range, timber, watershed, wildlife, fish and wilderness.” The Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) further provided for timber harvest from the Tongass National Forest as well as other uses such as subsistence. Effects on subsistence resources from timber harvest Tongass-wide are projected to have few differences based on the sequence in which areas are harvested. Because of the multiple use mandate and other requirements of the laws, these effects to subsistence are necessary, consistent with sound management of public lands.

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In addition to nationwide statutes, Section 101 of the Tongass Timber Reform Act (TTRA) directs the Forest Service to seek to meet market demand for timber from the Tongass, subject to certain qualifications. It is the goal of the Tongass National Forest to provide an even-flow of timber on a sustained-yield basis and in an economically efficient manner. The amount of timber offered each year is based on the objective of offering enough volume to meet projected annual demand. That annual demand projection starts with installed mill capacity, and then looks to industry rate of capacity utilization under different market scenarios, the volume under contract, and a number of other factors, including anticipated harvest and the range of expected timber purchases.

As described by Morse (April 2000), in terms of short-term economic consequences, oversupplying the market is less damaging than undersupplying it. If more timber is offered than purchased in a given year, the unsold volume is still available for re-offer in future years. Conversely, a short fall in the supply of timber can be financially devastating to the forest products industry.

References Brackley, A.M. and R.W. Haynes. 2008. Timber Products Output and Timber Harvests in Alaska: An

Addendum. Res. Note PNW-RN-559. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.

Brackley, A.M., T.D. Rojas, and R.W. Haynes. 2006. Timber products output and timber harvests in Alaska: projections for 2005-25. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-677. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 33 p.

Brooks, D.J. and R.W. Haynes. 1997. Timber products output and timber harvests in Alaska: projections for 1997-2010. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-409. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 17 p.

Daniels, J.M., M.D. Paruszkiewicz and S.J. Alexander. 2016. Tongass National Forest timber demand, projections for 2015 to 2030. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-934. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 53 p.

Grewe, N. 2017. Tongass National Forest: Updated Timber Sale Procedures. USDA Forest Service Region 10, Juneau, AK. 9 p. On file with: Regional Economist, Alaska Region, Juneau, AK 99802.

Morse, K.S. 2000a. Responding to the Market Demand for Tongass Timber: Using Adaptive Management to Implement Sec. 101 of the 1990 Tongass Timber Reform Act. April 2000. Management Bulletin. R10-MB-413. Juneau, AK: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Alaska Region. 43 p.

Morse, K.S. 2000b. Tongass National Forest Timber Sale Procedures: Using Information About Market Demand to Schedule FY2001 Timber Sale Offerings. October 2000. On file with: Regional Economist, Ecosystem Planning. Juneau, AK: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Alaska Region. 17 p.

USDA Forest Service. 2003. Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement. Juneau, AK: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Alaska Region, Tongass National Forest. R10-MB-481a.

USDA Forest Service. 2013. Secretary’s Memorandum 1044-009, Addressing Sustainable Forestry in Southeast Alaska.

USDA Forest Service. 2016a. Land and Resource Management Plan, Tongass National Forest. R10-MB-769j. December.

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USDA Forest Service. 2016b. Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan, Final Environmental Impact Statement Plan Amendment, Volume I. R10-MB-769e. June.

USDA Forest Service. 2016c. Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan, Final Environmental Impact Statement Plan Amendment, Volume II. R10-MB-769f. June.

USDA Forest Service. 2016d. Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan, Final Environmental Impact Statement Plan Amendment, Record of Decision. R10-MB-769l. December.

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