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*Thesetemperaturesweretakenfromthislineartemperaturegraph:
LinearAverageTemperature(DegreesF)*
CarbonMonoxide(Partspermillion)**
Methane(Partsperbillion)**
NitrousOxide(Partsperbillion)**
1750 *** 275 750 280
1800 *** 280 770 275
1850 *** 290 800 280
1900 56.625 300 880 285
1950 57.100 325 1000 290
2000 57.550 375 1700 315
2005 57.600 379 1774 319
**Anthropogenicemissions:
Global average radiative forcing (RF) in 2005 (best estimates and 5 to 95% uncertainty ranges) with respect to 1750 for CO2, CH4, N2O and other important agents and mechanisms, together with the typical geographical extent
(spatial scale) of the forcing and the assessed level of scientific understanding (LOSU). Aerosols from explosive
volcanic eruptions contribute an additional episodic cooling term for a few years following an eruption. The range for linear contrails does not include other possible effects of
aviation on cloudiness.
Percentageofanthropogenicemissions
***Thesetemperaturesdon’tfollowthelinearpatternasindicatedinthe1880‐2007graphabove.Theaveragetemperatureswereveryclosetothe1900temperatureof56.625degreesFwithlittlefluctuation.Thesetemperaturescanonlybeestimatedbylookingatthedifferentaveragetemperaturesbefore1900.Theseaverageglobaltemperatureswereestimatedfromicecoresamplesfromvaryingplaceswithvaryingextremes.Thisisthereasonforallthedifferentcoloredlines,butyoucanestimatethatthesetemperatures
wereaboutthesameasthe1900temperature:
ReasonsfortemperatureandAnthropogenicemissionchanges:• TheincreaseinCO2emissions,whichismainlyduetotheuseoffossilfuelsalongwithdeforestation,both
ofwhichwerecausedbyhuman‐inducedactivities.CO2isresponsiblefor64%ofthetotalGHGanthropogenicemissions.Thesecondlargestcontributorwith19%ofthetotalanthropogenicemissionsisCH4.CH4emissionshaveincreasedmainlyduetotheriseinnumbersoflivestockandricefields.N2Oincreasesarealmostsolelyduetotheuseoffertilizers.N2Oisthethirdlargestcontributorofanthropogenicemissions.• GlobaltotalannualanthropogenicGHGemissions,weightedbytheir100‐yearGWPs,havegrownby
70%between1970and2004.Asaresultofanthropogenicemissions,atmosphericconcentrationsofN2Onowfarexceedpre‐industrialvaluesspanningmanythousandsofyears,andthoseofCH4andCO2nowfarexceedthenaturalrangeoverthelast650,000years.
• Mostoftheglobalaveragewarmingoverthepast50yearsisverylikelyduetoanthropogenicGHGincreasesanditislikelythatthereisadiscerniblehuman‐inducedwarmingaveragedovereachcontinent
• Uncertaintiesinclude:Climatedatacoverageremainslimitedinsomeregionsandthereisanotablelackofgeographicbalanceindataandliteratureonobservedchangesinnaturalandmanagedsystems,withmarkedscarcityindevelopingcountries.Analyzing and monitoring changes in extreme events are more difficult than for climatic averages as longer data time-series of higher spatial and temporal resolutions are required. The effects of climate changes on human and some natural systems are difficult to detect due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers.
Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature; (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data; and (c)
Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All differences are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990. Smoothed curves
represent decadal averaged values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive
analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c).
Comparisonofobservedcontinental‐andglobal‐scalechangesinsurfacetemperaturewithresults
simulatedbyclimatemodelsusingeithernaturalorbothnaturalandanthropogenicforcings.Decadalaveragesofobservationsareshownfortheperiod1906‐2005(blackline)plottedagainstthecentreofthedecadeandrelativetothecorrespondingaverageforthe1901‐1950.Linesaredashedwherespatial
coverageislessthan50%.Blueshadedbandsshowthe5to95%rangefor19simulationsfromfiveclimatemodelsusingonlythenaturalforcingsduetosolaractivityandvolcanoes.Redshadedbandsshowthe5to95%rangefor58simulationsfrom14climatemodelsusingbothnaturalandanthropogenicforcings.
Locationsofthesignificantchangesindataseriesofphysicalsystems(snow,iceandfrozenground;hydrology;andcoastalprocesses)andbiologicalsystems(terrestrial,marine,andfreshwaterbiological
systems)areshowntogetherwithsurfaceairtemperaturechangesovertheperiod1970‐2004.Asubsetofabout29,000dataserieswasselectedfromabout80,000dataseriesfrom577studies.
PossibleScenariosfortheFuture
• Thereishighagreementandmuchevidencethatwithcurrentclimatechangemitigationpoliciesandrelatedsustainabledevelopmentpractices,globalGHGemissionswillcontinuetogrowoverthenextfewdecades.o ContinuedGHGemissionsatorabovecurrentrateswouldcausefurtherwarmingandinducemany
changesintheglobalclimatesystemduringthe21stcenturythatwouldverylikelybelargerthanthoseobservedduringthe20thcentury.
o Aerosolshaveanetcoolingeffectandtherepresentationofaerosolandaerosolprecursoremissions,includingsulfurdioxideblackcarbonandorganiccarbon,hasimprovedinthepostSRESscenarios.Generally,theseemissionsareprojectedtobelowerthanreportedinSRES.
• Forthenexttwodecadesawarmingofabout0.2°CperdecadeisprojectedforarangeofSRESemissionsscenarios.EveniftheconcentrationsofallGHGsandaerosolshadbeenkeptconstantatyear2000levels,afurtherwarmingofabout0.1°Cperdecadewouldbeexpected.Afterwards,temperatureprojectionsincreasinglydependonspecificemissionsscenarios.
• SNESScenarios:o SRESreferstothescenariosdescribedintheIPCCSpecialReportonEmissionsScenarios(SRES,
2000).TheSRESscenariosaregroupedintofourscenariofamilies(A1,A2,B1andB2)thatexplorealternativedevelopmentpathways,coveringawiderangeofdemographic,economicandtechnologicaldrivingforcesandresultingGHGemissions.TheSRESscenariosdonotincludeadditionalclimatepoliciesabovecurrentones.Theemissionsprojectionsarewidelyusedintheassessmentsoffutureclimatechange,andtheirunderlyingassumptionswithrespecttosocio‐economic,demographicandtechnologicalchangeserveasinputstomanyrecentclimatechangevulnerabilityandimpactassessments.
o TheA1storylineassumesaworldofveryrapideconomicgrowth,aglobalpopulationthatpeaksinmid‐centuryandrapidintroductionofnewandmoreefficienttechnologies.A1isdividedintothreegroupsthatdescribealternativedirectionsoftechnologicalchange:fossilintensive(A1FI),non‐fossilenergyresources(A1T)andabalanceacrossallsources(A1B).B1describesaconvergentworld,withthesameglobalpopulationasA1,butwithmorerapidchangesineconomicstructurestowardaserviceandinformationeconomy.B2describesaworldwithintermediatepopulationandeconomicgrowth,emphasizinglocalsolutionstoeconomic,social,andenvironmentalsustainability.A2describesaveryheterogeneousworldwithhighpopulationgrowth,sloweconomicdevelopmentandslowtechnologicalchange.NolikelihoodhasbeenattachedtoanyoftheSRESscenarios.
GlobalGHGemissions(inGtCO2‐eqperyear)intheabsenceofadditionalclimatepolicies:sixillustrativeSRESmarkerscenarios(coloredlines)and80thpercentilerangeofrecentscenariospublishedsinceSRES(post‐SRES)(grayshadedarea).Dashedlinesshowthefullrangeofpost‐SRESscenarios.Theemissions
includeCO2,CH4,N2OandF‐gases.
Case Temperature Change
(°C at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999) a
Sea Level Rise (M at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
Best estimate Likely range Model-based range excluding future rapid
dynamical changes in ice flow Constant Year 2000
concentrations^b 0.6 0.3 – 0.9 NA
B1 scenario 1.8 1.1 – 2.9 0.18 – 0.38 A1T scenario 2.4 1.4 – 3.8 0.20 – 0.45 B2 scenario 2.4 1.4 – 3.8 0.20 – 0.43
A1B scenario 2.8 1.7 – 4.4 0.21 – 0.48 A2 scenario 3.4 2.0 – 5.4 0.23 – 0.51
A1FI scenario 4.0 2.4 – 6.4 0.26 – 0.59
HowWeCanChange
• Someplannedadaptation(ofhumanactivities)isoccurringnow;moreextensiveadaptationisrequiredtoreducevulnerabilitytoclimatechange.
• Unmitigatedclimatechangewould,inthelongterm,belikelytoexceedthecapacityofnatural,managedandhumansystemstoadapt.
• Awiderangeofmitigationoptionsiscurrentlyavailableorprojectedtobeavailableby2030inallsectors.Theeconomicmitigationpotential,atcoststhatrangefromnetnegativeuptoUS$100/tCO2‐equivalent,issufficienttooffsettheprojectedgrowthofglobalemissionsortoreduceemissionstobelowcurrentlevelsin2030.
• Manyimpactscanbereduced,delayedoravoidedbymitigation.Mitigationeffortsandinvestmentsoverthenexttwotothreedecadeswillhavealargeimpactonopportunitiestoachievelowerstabilizationlevels.Delayedemissionsreductionssignificantlyconstraintheopportunitiestoachievelowerstabilizationlevelsandincreasetheriskofmoresevereclimatechangeimpacts.
• TherangeofstabilizationlevelsforGHGconcentrationsthathavebeenassessedcanbeachievedbydeploymentofaportfoliooftechnologiesthatarecurrentlyavailableandthosethatareexpectedtobecommercializedincomingdecades,providedthatappropriateandeffectiveincentivesareinplaceandbarriersareremoved.Inaddition,furtherRD&Dwouldberequiredtoimprovethetechnicalperformance,reducethecostsandachievesocialacceptabilityofnewtechnologies.Thelowerthestabilizationlevels,thegreatertheneedforinvestmentinnewtechnologiesduringthenextfewdecades.
• Makingdevelopmentmoresustainablebychangingdevelopmentpathscanmakeamajorcontributiontoclimatechangemitigationandadaptationandtoreducingvulnerability.
• Decisionsaboutmacro‐economicandotherpoliciesthatseemunrelatedtoclimatechangecansignificantlyaffectemissions.
EnergySupply:Energyinfrastructureinvestmentsdecisionswillhavelongtermimpactsongreenhousegasemissions,becauseofthelonglife‐timesofenergyinfrastructure.Theycancreateopportunitiestoachieveemissionreductionsby2030,notablythrough:
• investinginthereductionofenergyconsumptionratherthaninnewenergysupplyinfrastructure• switchingfromcoaltogas;• nuclearpower,althoughsafety,weaponsproliferationandwastemanagementremainasconstraints;• renewableenergy(hydro,solar,wind,geothermalandbioenergy);• combinedheatandpowergeneration,• applicationofCarbonCaptureandSequestration(CCS)technologies.• Anincreaseinthepriceoffossilfuelcouldmakelow‐carbonalternativemorecompetitive,butcould
alsoleadtotheuseofhigh‐carbonalternativessuchasoilsandsandheavyoils.
Sector Adaptationoption/strategy Underlyingpolicyframework
(Constraints=blackfont;Opportunities=reditalicfont
Water Expandedrainwaterharvesting;waterstorageandconservation
techniques;waterre‐use;desalination;water‐useand
irrigationefficiency
Nationalwaterpoliciesandintegratedwaterresourcesmanagement;water‐related
hazardsmanagement
Financial,humanresourcesandphysicalbarriers;integratedwaterresourcesmanagement;synergieswithothersectors
Agriculture Adjustmentofplantingdatesandcropvariety;croprelocation;
improvedlandmanagement,e.g.erosioncontrolandsoilprotection
throughtreeplanting
R&Dpolicies;institutionalreform;landtenureandlandreform;training;capacitybuilding;cropinsurance;financialincentives,e.g.subsidiesandtaxcredits
Technological&financialconstraints;accesstonewvarieties;markets;longergrowingseasoninhigher
latitudes;revenuesfrom‘new’products
Infrastructure/settlem
ent
Relocation;seawallsandstormsurgebarriers;dune
reinforcement;landacquisitionandcreationofmarshlands/wetlandsasbufferagainstsea
levelriseandflooding;protectionofexistingnaturalbarriers
Standardsandregulationsthatintegrateclimate
changeconsiderationsintodesign;landusepolicies;buildingcodes;insurance
Financialandtechnologicalbarriers;availabilityof
relocationspace;integratedpoliciesandmanagements;synergieswithsustainable
developmentgoals
Humanhealth
Heat‐healthactionplans;emergencymedicalservices;improvedclimate‐sensitive
diseasesurveillanceandcontrol;safewaterandimproved
sanitation
Publichealthpoliciesthatrecognizeclimaterisk;strengthenedhealthservices;regionaland
internationalcooperation
Limitstohumantolerance(vulnerablegroups);knowledgelimitations;financialcapacity;upgradedhealthservices;improvedqualityoflife
Tourism Diversificationoftourismattractions&revenues;shiftingskislopestohigheraltitudesandglaciers;artificialsnow‐making
Integratedplanning(e.g.carryingcapacity;linkageswithothersectors);financialincentives,e.g.subsidiesand
taxcredits
Appeal/marketingofnewattractions;financialand
logisticalchallenges;potentialadverseimpactonothersectors(e.g.artificialsnow‐makingmayincreaseenergyuse);revenues
from‘new’attractions;Transport Realignment/relocation;design
standardsandplanningforroads,rail,andotherinfrastructuretocopewithwarminganddrainage
Integratingclimatechangeconsiderationsintonationaltransportpolicy;investmentinR&Dforspecialsituations,
e.g.permafrostareas
Financial&technologicalbarriers;availabilityoflessvulnerableroutes;improvedtechnologiesandintegrationwithkeysectors(e.g.energy)
Energy Strengtheningofoverheadtransmissionanddistributioninfrastructure;undergroundcablingforutilities;energyefficiency;useofrenewable
sources;reduceddependenceonsinglesourcesofenergy
Nationalenergypolicies,regulations,andfiscalandfinancialincentivesto
encourageuseofalternativesources;incorporatingclimatechangeindesign
standards
Accesstoviablealternatives;financialandtechnologicalbarriers;acceptanceofnew
technologies;stimulationofnewtechnologies;useoflocal
resources
Sector Keymitigationtechnologiesandpracticescurrentlycommerciallyavailable.
Keymitigationtechnologiesand
practicesprojectedtobecommercializedbefore
2030.
EnergySupply[4.3,4.4]
Improvedsupplyanddistributionefficiency;fuelswitchingfromcoaltogas;nuclearpower;renewableheatandpower(hydropower,solar,wind,geothermalandbioenergy);combinedheatandpower;earlyapplicationsofCCS(e.g.storageofremovedCO2fromnaturalgas)
CarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS)forgas,biomassandcoal‐firedelectricitygeneratingfacilities;advancednuclearpower;advancedrenewableenergy,includingtidalandwavesenergy,concentratingsolar,andsolarPV.
Transport[5.4]
Morefuelefficientvehicles;hybridvehicles;cleanerdieselvehicles;biofuels;modalshiftsfromroadtransporttorailandpublictransportsystems;non‐motorizedtransport(cycling,walking);land‐useandtransportplanning
Secondgenerationbiofuels;higherefficiencyaircraft;advancedelectricandhybridvehicleswithmorepowerfulandreliablebatteries
Buildings[6.5]
Efficientlightinganddaylighting;moreefficientelectricalappliancesandheatingandcoolingdevices;improvedcookstoves,improvedinsulation;passiveandactivesolardesignforheatingandcooling;alternativerefrigerationfluids,recoveryandrecycleoffluorinatedgases
Integrateddesignofcommercialbuildingsincludingtechnologies,suchasintelligentmetersthatprovidefeedbackandcontrol;solarPVintegratedinbuildings
Industry[7.5]
Moreefficientend‐useelectricalequipment;heatandpowerrecovery;materialrecyclingandsubstitution;controlofnon‐CO2gasemissions;andawidearrayofprocess‐specifictechnologies
Advancedenergyefficiency;CCSforcement,ammonia,andironmanufacture;inertelectrodesforaluminummanufacture
Agriculture[8.4]
Improvedcropandgrazinglandmanagementtoincreasesoilcarbonstorage;restorationofcultivatedpeatysoilsanddegradedlands;improvedricecultivationtechniquesandlivestockandmanuremanagementtoreduceCH4emissions;improvednitrogenfertilizerapplicationtechniquestoreduceN2Oemissions;dedicatedenergycropstoreplacefossilfueluse;improvedenergyefficiency
Improvementsofcropsyields