Limits of Intuition

Module 2

• Imagine a huge piece of paper about the thickness of one textbook page. If it were folded in half 50 times, how thick would it be?

• The answer is 250 times the original thickness, or about 50,000,000 miles!

• Assuming a world population of about 5.5 billion, if we gathered everyone together and allotted each person a generous two-by-two feet of ground, how large an area would we need? – The answer is less than 800 square miles, only about the

size of Jacksonville, Florida.

• What if we allowed everyone a spacious cubical apartment of 20 feet on a side? – The answer is that every human being on earth would fit

comfortably into the Grand Canyon!

Hindsight Bias

• The tendency to believe, after learning the outcome, that you knew it all along.

Monday Morning Quarterbacking!!!

After the Chris Brown/Rihanna incident…how many of you “knew” Chris Brown was a violent kid?

Overconfidence• We tend to think we

know more than we do.

• 82% of U.S. drivers consider themselves to be in the top 30% of their group in terms of safety.

• 81% of new business owners felt they had an excellent chance of their businesses succeeding. When asked about the success of their peers, the answer was only 39%. (Now that's overconfidence!!!)

Overconfidence Examples

• “There is no reason for anyone to have a computer in their home.” (Ken Olsen, president of Digital Equipment Company, 1977)

• “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” (Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, physicist, & president of the British Royal Society, 1895)

Overconfidence Examples

• “Reagan doesn’t have the presidential look.” (United Artists Executive when asked whether Reagan should be offered the starring role in the movie The Best Man, 1964)

• “A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range of probability.” (Harvard Economic Society, November 16, 1929)

Overconfidence Examples

• “Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific endeavors.” (Lee DeForest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957)

• “Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years.” (Alex Lewyt, manufacturer of vacuum cleaners, 1955)

Aries

• Sometimes, certain situations appear to worsen before they improve. Note the word 'appear'. We believe a particular development to be negative because such developments tend to appear out of the blue and throw carefully-laid plans into chaos. We overlook the fact that the seemingly negative development is actually a progression. Expect to be reassured about this very soon

Taurus

• Statisticians work out how likely or unlikely situations are to occur and the likelihood of risk. They can only speculate using information available to them and form an opinion based on this information. Before you reach a conclusion about how risky a certain situation is, ensure you make use of what your instincts are telling you. Something isn't as risky as you believe it to be

Gemini

• We reserve the right to change our minds. When we decide to alter or replace something, there are always people who huff and puff or sigh wearily, wishing we weren't making their life more difficult or complicated. You appear to have identified a need to change a plan that might be met with resistance from someone else. That's their problem, not yours.

Cancer

• Imagine you had a tangled ball of string that would take a week to untangle. Do you persevere and begin the task of untangling or do you buy a new ball of string? What happens to the existing ball of string? Does it simply get thrown away? You believe something is too complicated to persevere with. Replacing it might be easier but it won't be an improvement in many other ways

Leo

• Soap operas and television dramas would be very dull if storylines didn't contain recurring dramas. Viewers would switch off after brief periods of time if they weren't encouraged to see how certain storylines unfolded. The prospect of a drama appears to be motivating you in some way now. Remember that it's one thing to watch a drama. It's another to be part of it.

Virgo

• There are times when we must be focused and attentive. There are other times when it pays to relax and look at a much bigger picture. Your focus on a certain area is as understandable as it is admirable but through focusing so intently on one aspect of it, you risk not seeing other, essential information. Let situations come to you, rather than you controlling them.

Libra

• Years ago, 'bigger was better'. If something was to impress, then it needed to be impressive in size or stature. In recent years, we've become used to smaller things being both impressive and practical. Don't be daunted by how 'big' a situation or possibly a person appears. Soon, you will be reassured that it or they are actually much smaller or less intimidating than you thought!

Scorpio

• To be successful, we must introduce change of into our lives. We must abandon old habits and beliefs and replace them with something better or more appropriate. Eventually, these new habits and beliefs need replacing as our circumstances, needs or goals change. You're in the process now of releasing whatever has no place in your world. Welcome it, don't fear or resent it

Sagittarius

• People born under your sign tend not to do very much in 'half measures'. If something excites and motivates you, then likelihood is high that you'll invest every bit of time and effort toward achieving something worthwhile. Sometimes though, you cannot fathom why something that motivates you doesn't do the same for someone else. Believe that it does, just in a different way.

Capricorn

• In looking at your astrological outlook, I am again reminded of gold diggers who bought plots of land, dug for years and never discovered gold. They sold their mines, believing them to be worthless and often to buyers who struck gold within days. Don't give up on something that doesn't seem to be coming to fruition. You're about to discover efforts haven't been in vain.

Aquarius

• Responses we receive from others are based on what we give to them. That's a belief subscribed to by many people for thousands of years. It's therefore interesting that we receive from some people what we know we never gave them. Someone is behaving a certain, puzzling way now. Trust that they're responding in a way they believe to be right. Be patient and understanding.

Pisces

• I've never tried to train a fish but there are many who can do it. Like any other creature, training requires motivation in particular ways. If a fish or any creature learns over time that a reward awaits them for doing something, they'll usually do it. You're being encouraged to react a certain way by a certain person now. Don't feel obliged to respond if the reward isn't worth having.

The Barnum Effect

• It is the tendency for people to accept very general or vague characterizations of themselves and take them to be accurate.

A tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share our

beliefs and behaviors.

False Consensus Effect

We Need Research!

• *To the empiricist, intuition is an invalid source of knowledge – we must TEST and INVESTIGATE!!