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7/29/2019 Limited Input

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Irrigated Crop Budgets

Corn Management Comparisons
http://agrilifecdn.tamu.edu/communications/files/2012/08/TAMAgEXT.png


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Overview

Declining Resources

Crop Profitability

Extension Tools


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ChangingTimes


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Source: NPGCD Hydrology and Groundwater Resource 2011-2012 Publication


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Source: NPGCD Hydrology and Groundwater Resource 2011-2012 Publication


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Source: NPGCD Hydrology and GroundwaterResource 2011-2012 Publication

Active LargeProductionWells in theDistrict and

Wells AddedSince 2006


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Irrigated Crop

Profitability


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Estimated Costs and Returns for

2013 Primary Irrigated Crops in Texas High Plains

CornCorn

Silage Cotton SorghumSorghum

Silage Wheat

Production/Ac 225 bu 27 tons 1100 lbs 75 cwt 21 tons 65 bu

Price $6.50 $60$0.68 /

250 $10.60 $54 $8.70

GrazingIncome - - - $102.00

Gross Returns $1462.50 $1620.00 $955.50 $795.00 $1134.00 $667.50

Ac-In Applied* 22 20 12 14 13 15

Variable Costs $705.09 $831.72 $644.08 $405.25 $514.98 $394.26

Returns AboveVC $757.40 $788.27 $311.41 $389.74 $619.01 $273.23

*Ac-In Priced at $4.40/mcf assuming 1 mcf = 1 ac-in


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Estimated Costs and Returns for

2013 Primary Irrigated Crops in Texas High Plains

CornCorn

Silage Cotton SorghumSorghum

Silage Wheat

Production/Ac 225 bu 27 tons 1100 lbs 75 cwt 21 tons 65 bu

Price $6.00 $55$0.80 /

250 $9.65 $50 $6.75

GrazingIncome - - - $102.00

Gross Returns $1350.00 $1485.00 $1087.50 $723.75 $1050.00 $540.75

Ac-In Applied* 22 20 12 14 13 15

Variable Costs $705.09 $831.72 $644.08 $405.25 $514.98 $394.26

Returns AboveVC $644.91 $653.28 $443.42 $318.50 $535.02 $146.49

*Ac-In Priced at $4.40/mcf assuming 1 mcf = 1 ac-in


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Estimated 2013 Corn returns over variable cost for various yields & prices

Yield: 170 200 225 240 260

Price$/bu

bushels

Returns over Variable Costs ($)

5.50 251.91 404.91 532.41 620.91 738.916.00 336.91 504.91 644.91 740.91 686.91

6.50 421.91 604.91 757.41 860.91 998.91

7.00 506.91 704.91 869.91 980.91 1128.91

7.50 591.91 804.91 982.41 1100.91 1258.91

Assumes VC in budgets with variable harvest/hauling ($0.40/bu) and $4.40 natural gas

Estimated 2013 Cotton returns over variable cost or various yields & prices

Yield: 500 800 1100 1400 1700

Price$ / lb

lbs


0.58 -37.86 81.78 201.42 312.06 440.70

0.63 -12.86 121.78 256.42 391.06 525.70

0.68 12.14 161.78 311.41 461.06 610.70

0.73 37.14 201.78 366.42 531.06 695.70

0.80 62.14 220.24 443.42 601.06 780.70

Assumes VC in budgets with variable strip ($8.00/cwt), ginning ($2.75/cwt) & $4.40 natural gas


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Estimated 2013 Sorghum returns over variable cost for various yields & prices

Yield: 45 60 75 90 105

Price$/cwt

cwt


9.25 27.20 157.85 288.50 435.35 582.20

9.65 45.20 181.85 318.50 455.15 591.80

10.60 87.95 238.85 389.75 556.85 723.95

11.00 105.95 262.85 419.75 592.85 765.95

11.50 128.45 292.85 457.25 637.85 818.45

Assumes VC in budgets with variable harvest/hauling (54/cwt) and $4.40 natural gas

Assumes VC in budgets with variable harvest/hauling (77/bu) and $4.40 natural gas

Estimated 2013 Wheat returns over variable cost for various yieldsand prices

Yield: 45 55 65 75 85

Price$/bu

bushels


6.75 -26.89 86.69 153.24 206.58 247.31

7.75 41.09 141.69 211.49 281.29 332.31

8.70 83.84 193.94 273.23 352.54 413.06

9.25 108.59 224.16 308.99 393.79 459.81

9.75 131.09 251.69 341.49 431.29 502.31


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Estimated 2013 Corn Silage returns over variable cost for various yields & prices

Yield: 18 22 27 32 38

Price$/bu

tons


45 43.53 194.53 383.28 644.53 958.03

55 266.98 457.98 696.73 935.48 1221.98

60 313.53 524.53 788.28 1124.53 1528.03

68 457.53 700.53 1004.28 1380.53 1832.03

75 583.53 854.53 1193.28 1604.53 2098.03

Estimated 2013 Sorghum Silage returns over variable cost for various yields &prices

Yield: 12 16 21 26 30

Price

$/cwt

tons


40 30.27 161.27 325.02 561.27 750.27

50 150.27 321.27 535.02 748.77 919.77

54 198.27 385.27 619.02 925.27 1170.27

60 270.27 481.27 745.02 1081.27 1350.27

67 354.27 593.27 892.02 1263.27 1560.27Assumes VC in budgets with variable harvest/hauling ($7.25/ton) and $4.40 natural gas

Assumes VC in budgets with variable harvest/hauling ($7.25/ton) and $4.40 natural gas


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Irrigated Corn Costs of Production 2009-2013

Seed

(per acre)

Fertilizer

(per acre)

Insecticide

(per acre)

Herbicide

(per acre)

Irrigation

Labor

Cash Rent

&Leases


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Making the Decision

Utilize Extension Resources to Aid in DecisionMaking

Drought Spreadsheets, Commodity Budgets,

Market Outlook Reports,http://agecoext.tamu.edu/

FARM Assistance (Like Us on Facebook)

QuickBooks Premier 2012/ Ipad Training Crop Profitability/Lease Spreadsheets

Irrigated Decision Aid
http://agecoext.tamu.edu/http://agrilifecdn.tamu.edu/communications/files/2012/08/TAMAgEXT.pnghttp://agecoext.tamu.edu/http://agecoext.tamu.edu/


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Projected Risk in Net Farm Incomefor Base Scenario & Alternative 1

Base Scenario

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

2001 2004 2007 2010

$1,000

5% 25% Mean 75% 95%

Alternative 1

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

2001 2004 2007 2010

$1,000

5% 25% Mean 75% 95%


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Irrigated Decision Aid Methodology

Adapt southern plains profitability spreadsheetto a useable version for the northern plains Crop Profitability/Lease Agreements/Breakeven

Easy to update on an annual basis

Extend analysis to evaluate MVP of water appliedper crop to assist in optimal planting decisions Considering circle size, GPM and crop water

requirements Profitability of crop or crop combination for the year

Disseminate results and decision aid to producersvia meetings, workshops and web


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Irrigated Decision Aid Applications

Assist irrigated producers in makingmanagement decisions on the optimalcrop mix for their land.

KEY Calculation ROVC/Acre-Inch applied

Corn Example

Total ROVC $754.37 = $34/Ac-inDivided by Ac-Inches 22

Applied


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Real World Examples

Scenario 1 Joe Farmer can pump 300 gpm on a 120

acre pivot

He is considering planting either corn, cotton,

or sorghum as a summer crop. Based on2013 Enterprise Budgets, the ROVC for eachcommodity is as follows:

Corn $754.37/Acre

Cotton $313.64/Acre Sorghum $389.53/Acre

Which irrigated crop should he plant tomaximize ROVC under limited water

conditions?


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Real World Examples

Scenario 2

Joe Farmer decides to plant 50 acres of cornsince it has the highest revenue potential in

Scenario 1 He must now decide which dryland crop to

plant on the remaining 70 acres

He is considering either dryland cotton, grainsorghum, or sunflowers

Which irrigated/dryland combination willmaximize ROVC on the land?


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Thanks!

Documents

Limited Input