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Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy. John S. Daniel National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chemical Sciences Division Boulder, Colorado USA. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Limitations of Single-Basket Trading:Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy
John S. DanielNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Chemical Sciences DivisionBoulder, Colorado USA
Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy, Daniel, Solomon, Sanford, McFarland, Fuglestvedt, and Friedlingstein, Climatic Change, 2012 (online 2011).
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Limitations of Single-Basket Trading:Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy
Montreal Protocol SuccessA Lesson for Climate PolicyImplications for HFC Policy
John S. DanielNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Chemical Sciences DivisionBoulder, Colorado USA
Limitations of Single-Basket Trading: Lessons from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Policy, Daniel, Solomon, Sanford, McFarland, Fuglestvedt, and Friedlingstein, Climatic Change, 2012 (online 2011).
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.)
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.)• No “trading” among groups
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.)• No “trading” among groups• Highly successful
Adapted fromVelders et al, PNAS, 2007
A MeasureOf SuccessA MeasureOf Success
No Proto
col
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Montreal Protocol Multiple Basket Approach
• Groups of gases controlled separately (e.g., CFCs, HCFCs, halons, etc.)• No “trading” among groups• Highly successful• CFCs/HCFCs Illustration
Adapted fromVelders et al, PNAS, 2007
A MeasureOf SuccessA MeasureOf Success
No Protocol
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
CFC/HCFC Contribution to O3 Depletion
ProjectionsProjectionsObs - basedObs - based
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Impact of a Trade to HCFCs
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Single-Basket Range of O3 Depletion
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Kyoto ProtocolSingle Basket Approach
PFCs
CO2
CH4
N2O HFC
s
SF6
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Kyoto ProtocolSingle Basket Approach
PFCs
CO2
CH4
N2O HFC
s
SF6
2010 Radiative Forcing
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Kyoto ProtocolSingle Basket Approach
PFCs
CO2
CH4
N2O HFC
s
SF6
2010 Radiative Forcing
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
CO2/CH4 Impact on Climate(RCP4.5)
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Impact of a Trade to All CH4 Emissions
All CH4
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Impact of a Trade to All CO2 Emissions
All CO2
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Ambiguity of Single Basket
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Implications for HFCs
Velders et al, PNAS, 2009
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Implications for HFCs
Velders et al, PNAS, 2009
1.8
Radiative Forcing Changefrom 2010 to 2050 (RCP8.5)
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Implications for HFCs
Velders, PNAS, 2009
This can all be avoided
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Implications for HFCs
Velders, PNAS, 2009
PotentialLong-term penalty
This can all be avoided
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
N2O and Ozone Depletion
Ravishankara et al., 2009
3 April 2012, Bonn, Germany
Conclusions
• The Montreal Protocol successfully implemented a multi-basket approach to deal with the international problem of stratospheric ozone depletion.
• A single-basket approach, as used in the Kyoto Protocol, can lead to some level of ambiguity in the climate impact of regulation.
• If regulation on some group of gases (e.g., HFCs) has the inadvertent affect of delaying CO2 regulation, this will have multi-century climate implications.
