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www.HSDent.com
The Great Global Crash Begins: Second and Final Stock Top
Likely Today… Once in a Lifetime Opportunities Ahead
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“Simplicity is the ultimate
sophistication.”
Leonardo da Vinci
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Radical Innovator Steve Jobs on Why He Doesn’t Do Market Research
"Did Alexander Graham Bell do any market
research before inventing the phone?"
"Henry Ford said: 'If I'd asked people what they
wanted, they would have said a faster horse!'"
"Customers don't know what they want until we
show them.
"I strive to give people what they would want if
they only knew it was possible."
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"You can see the key economic trends that will
impact your life, your business, your
investments and your family over the rest of
your lifetime... and your kids!
"This is especially critical in an unprecedented
economic explosion wherein more progress
has been made in the last 120 years than in all
of human history."
– Harry Dent
My Offering:
www.HSDent.com
2,000
7,000
12,000
17,000
22,000
27,000
2.4
3.4
4.4
5.4
6.4
7.4
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Mill
ions
Immigration-adjusted Births Lagged for Peak Spending, left Dow Adjusted for Inflation, right
My First Breakthrough in 1988: The Spending Wave Births Lagged for Peak Spending vs. The Real Dow
Source: Dent Research, U.S. Census Bureau, Bloomberg
www.HSDent.com
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Baby Boom Generation Peak Spending at Age 46Consumer Spending by Age
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dent Research
Age
Ave
rage
An
nu
al E
xp
en
ditu
res
4639 54201520072000
www.HSDent.com
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Australia Spending Wave Best in Developed World, Along with Israel45-to-49-Year-Olds
Mill
ions
Source: United Nations Population Division
2025
2045
2035
2065
2080
Next Global
Depression
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20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Not Just Macro But Cradle to Grave: Consumer Life Cycle of Spending S
pe
ndin
g
Age
Starter Homes
2784
Prescription Drugs
& Vitamins
34
Trade-Up
Homes 42
60
47
Furniture &
Restaurants
51College Tuition
58
Appliances & Home Renovation
68
Vacation & Retirement Homes
80
74Cruise Ships
ApartmentsNursing
Homes
29
Infant’s Furniture
Child Care
3536
Toys
38Kid’s
Clothes
44
Peak
Spending
Hospitals & Doctors*
Source: Dent Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, *Out-of-Pocket, Not Including Government Insurance
63Net Worth & Autos64
57
Flowers &
Indoor Plants
Life Insurance & Financial Planning
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1. Nursing Homes / Assisted Living Facilities
2. Funerals and Cremation Services
3. Pharmaceuticals
4. Vitamins and Skin Care
5. Cruise Ships
6. Long-Term Care Insurance
7. Lawn and Garden Services
8. Cosmetic Dentistry and Implants
9. Home Security Systems
10. Housekeeping Services
10 Top “Aging” Demographic Growth Sectors For DCs in Next Boom
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1
2
3
4
5
6
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Bill
ions,
Ag
es 1
5-6
4
Mill
ions,
Ag
es 4
5-4
9
Global Spending Wave: EMs Dominate Future Growth, not DCsDeveloped vs. Emerging Countries (Based on $25K GPD per Capita PPP Threshold)
Source: United Nations Population Division, Total Economy Database
Developed
Emerging
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300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
China Spending Wave Already Peaked in 2011: Down ForeverWorkforce, Ages 15-64
Source: United Nations Population Division
Mill
ions
2011
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
India Spending Wave Grows Strongly into 2050-55; SE Asia SimilarWorkforce, Ages 15-64
Source: United Nations Population Division
Mill
ions
2050-55
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$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
China
Indonesia
India Appears to Have Stronger GDP per Capita Gains Than ChinaGDP per Capita (PPP) vs. Urbanization
% Urban
Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, The Conference Board
$13,040
55%
$18,369
59%
$20,000
$30,000
India
$7,435
34%
$25,000
GD
P P
er
Ca
pita
, P
PP
Me
asu
re
www.HSDent.com
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
U.S. Immigration-Adjusted Births Moved Forward for Peak Spending, left U.S. Long-Term Interest Rates, right
My Most Important Concept: 80-Year Four Season Economic CycleU.S. Immigration-Adjusted Births Moved Forward for Peak Spending
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Center for Health Statistics, Dent Research
Mill
ions
Pe
rce
nt Y
ield
Spring Boom
Summer
Inflation/
Recession
Winter Deflation/
Depression
Fall
Bubble
Boom
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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Hierarchy of Macroeconomic Cycles: Progression of Major TopsDeveloped Countries
10-Year
Boom/Bust
Cycle
35-Year
Geopolitical
Cycle
39-Year
Generation
Cycle45-Year
Innovation
Cycle
= All Four
Cycles Point Down
1930-33 1973-76 2020-22
Source: Dent Research
www.HSDent.com
2,000
7,000
12,000
17,000
22,000
27,000
2.4
3.4
4.4
5.4
6.4
7.4
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Mill
ions
Immigration-adjusted Births Lagged for Peak Spending, left Dow Adjusted for Inflation, right
QE Creates “Markets on Crack:” 120% Overvalued At 2/19/20 PeakBirths Lagged for Peak Spending vs. The Real Dow
Source: Dent Research, U.S. Census Bureau, Bloomberg
2007
2023
2036/37
2055/56
www.HSDent.com
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Corporate Profits (Indexed to Q4 '08) EPS, GAAP (Indexed Q1 '09)
S&P 500 EPS Grows 119% More Than Profits Since 2009 QE
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg
175%
384%
Ind
ex o
f 1
00
Fro
m R
esp
ective
Bo
tto
ms
www.HSDent.com
$167 $164 $164 $157
$234
$376
$488
$627
$359
$206
$303
$446
$400
$500
$566$581
$555
$506
$800 $800
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
QE/Free Money Fuels Stock Buybacks by S&P 500 Companies: Then Tax Cuts!Billions, annual
Source: Bloomberg, Howard Silverblatt, Investors.com
$1.8 Trillion
From 2003 to 2007
$5.6 Trillion
From 2009 to 2019
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Non-financial Corporations Rest of the World Households Institutions
Corporations: Only Net Buyers of Stocks Since 2009… What the #@*?Cumulative Net Buying of U.S. Equities, % Market Cap
Source: Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse
www.HSDent.com
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Unprecedented QE Mostly Created Final Massive Stock Bubble
Source: Federal Reserve
Inde
x 1
00
= R
espe
ctive
20
08
-09 B
ott
om
s
Monetary Base
M2 Money Supply
GDP
S&P 500
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2.75
3.25
3.75
4.25
4.75
5.25
5.75
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Massive US Bubble in Private Financial Assets: 50% Reset to Reality U.S. Financial Assets Excluding Financial Sector as Ratio to GDP
Source: Federal Reserve
Ra
tio
5.9$123 Tr
-50%
-$61.5 Tr
www.HSDent.com
$280.6
$168.4
$105.3
$73.7
$83.3
$25.0
$8.1
$4.9
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2017 2022
In T
rilli
ons U
SD
Global Real Estate Debt Securities Equities Gold/Crypto
$477.3T
$272.0T
-30%
-40%
-40%
-70%
$205T+ Disappears
$206T of $477T Global Financial Assets Disappears! 2.4 X Global GDP
Source: Savills World Research
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Debt/Asset Bubbles Like Magic: Now You See Them, Now You Don’t!
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20%
19%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Years
1929-1940 2007-2018
Winter Season from 2008: Worse Real GDP Than Great DepressionCumulative Real GDP Growth From Peak, 11-Year Periods
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
6%?
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1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
1875:
Steamship
Reaper
Super Bubbles Every 90 Years: Or Two 45-Year Innovation CyclesKey Technologies Emerge on S-Curves Every 45 Years
1830:
Steam Engine
Canals
2055:
Biotech
Nanotech
Source: Dent Research
= Great Bubble Crashes/Resets Every 90 Years
1920:
Rail Road
Telegraph
1965:
Automobile
Electricity
2010:
Internet
Portable Computing
1837-42
1929-32
2019-22e
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1700 1730 1760 1790 1820 1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030
90-Year Great Resets Since Industrial Revolution & Stock ExchangesStock Prices Since 1700
Source: Conquer the Crash by Robert Prechter, pg. 33, Dent Research
1
1,000
10
100
10,000
100,000
British
Stock
Prices
U.S.
Stock Prices
Grand Supercyle Bear Market and Bull MarketAnnual average Prices, semi log scale
(B)
(A) (C)
(I)
(II)
(III)
(IV)
(V)
V
4
2
3 1
2
4
5
3
Great Resets
1
5
IV
III
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• 90-Year Super Bubble/Great Reset Bottom, aka
1932, 1842
• 80-Year End of Winter Season, aka 1942
• 40-Year Generation/Spending Wave Bottom, aka
1982, 1942
• 20-Year Half-Generation Cycle aka 1922, 1942, 1962,
1982, 2002
• 10-Year Boom/Bust Cycle; First 3 Years Each
Decade, aka 2000–02, 1990-02, 1980-82, 1970-72,
1960-62… 2008-09 Only Exception (2010-12 Europe)
Rare Convergence of Long-Term Cycles Bottoming in Late 2022
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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2,200,000
2,400,000
2,600,000
2,800,000
1953 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 2023 2030 2037 2044 2051 2058
Japan Taiwan South Korea
Rise of East Asia: Spending Wave Peaks in Japan, S. Korea & Taiwan47-Year Birth Lag
Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Japan, National Statistics, Republic of China (Taiwan), Statistics Korea
Ja
pa
n
Ta
iwa
n a
nd
So
uth
Ko
rea
www.HSDent.com
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
China Spending Wave Already Peaked in 2011: Down ForeverWorkforce, Ages 15-64
Source: United Nations Population Division
Mill
ions
2011
www.HSDent.com
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018
China
Taiwan
Japan
South Korea
Successive Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China Accelerations Since 1965GDP Per Capita by Year
Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, The Conference Board
$29.4k
$8.3k
$8.4k
$41.8k
$53.8k
$11.9k
$19.8k
$3.9k
GD
P P
er
Ca
pita
, P
PP
Me
asu
re
$45.2k
www.HSDent.com
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
China GDP per Capita (PPP) vs. Urbanization
% Urban
$19,800 at
59% in 2018
$25,000 at
85% by 2043
GD
P P
er
Ca
pita
, P
PP
Me
asu
re
Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, The Conference Board
From 1950 From 1980
Urbanization Growth/yr 0.70% 1.05%
$ Gain per 1% Gain in Urban $ 414 $ 478
Implied GDP/Capita at 85% $ 30,483 $ 32,129
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Country
Date Range
of
Acceleration
(# of years)
Total
GDP per
Capita Gain
GDP per
Capita Gain
per Year
Change in
Urbanization
% Points
GDP per
Capita vs.
Every 1%
Urbanization
Gain
Japan1965-1990
25 years$21.1K $0.8K 9% pts $2.3K
South
Korea
1985-2018
33 years$33.4K $1.0K 16% pts $2.1K
Taiwan1985-2018
33 years$41.9K $1.3K 21% pts $2.0K
Australia1985-2015
30 Years$21.0K $0.7K 1% pts N/A
China2000-2018
18 years
$15.9K
$26.5 adj $0.9K
23% pts
38% adj$0.7K
The Accelerations in E. Asia Are Off-the-Charts in GDP/Cap PPP Gains
Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, The Conference Board
www.HSDent.com
4/01/1983 4/01/1988 4/01/1993 4/01/1998 4/01/2003 4/01/2008
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
Real Estate Index, right
Nikkei, left
-66%
-82%
Japan’s Boomer Bubble Bursts: Stocks Late 1989, Real Estate 1991
Source: Yahoo! Finance, : Land Institute of Japan, 6-City Real Estate Index
Index 1
00=
2000
www.HSDent.com
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
% o
f G
DP
Households & NPISHs Non-Financial Corporations Government
No Deleveraging in Japan: Massive Public Debt & QE to Offset Decline
418%
255%
104%
59%71%
147%
86%
304%
130%
98%
24%
8%
Source: https://www.bis.org/statistics/totcredit.htm
218%
163%
https://www.bis.org/statistics/totcredit.htm
www.HSDent.com
0
100
200
300
400
500
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Shanghai: Mother of Real Estate Bubbles with 78% Downside… What!!In
de
x=
200
3
Source: China Real Estate Index Systems, Bloomberg, Dent Research
9.1 Times Gain
Bubble Intensity = 0.50
9.1 Times Gain / 18.25 Duration
18.25 Years 18.25 Years
Bubble
Origin
-78%
Forecast
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• 78% Net Worth in Real Estate vs. 30% U.S., 67% Australia
• 89% Owned vs. 62% U.S.
• 50 Million Homes or 22% Urban, Vacant… WHAT???
• 49% of Sales Second Home, 24% Third or More Home… High Speculation
• Consumer Mortgage Debt Up 8.4 Times Since 2008
• Who to Buy When People Panic and Sell Vacant Extra Homes?
China’s Real Estate Disaster Ahead
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
A
D
E
B
C
Shanghai Composite Keeps Spiking Less Intensely: Weakening Sign
1,000
334
www.HSDent.com
7%24%
65%45%23%
42%
55%
51%83%
72%
125%160%
8%
20%
38%
45%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
2000 2007 2014 2018
Household
Corporate
Government
Financial
China’s Debt Has Grown 19.1 Times Since 2000.. What???…And 5.4 Times Since 2007
$2.1T or
121% of
GDP
Source: “Debt and (Not Much) Deleveraging,” McKinsey Global Institute, February 2015, Financial Times, Dent Research
Trilli
ons
$7.4T or
158% of
GDP
$28.2T or
282% of
GDP
$40.3T or
301% of
GDP
www.HSDent.com
Debt/Asset Bubbles Like Magic: Now You See Them, Now You Don’t!
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Minor
Bubble #1:
111%
Major
Bubble #1:
223%
Minor
Bubble #2:
97%
This Is Not a Bubble? Greatest Crash Since 1929 – 1932 AheadDow Jones Industrial Average
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Major
Bubble #2
6,500
5,000 -83%
357%
-40%
-39%-54%
www.HSDent.com
400
800
1,600
3,200
6,400
12,800
25,600
1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
5,000
Megaphone Topping Patterns in Dow: 1965–1972 and 2000–20
Source: Bloomberg
Log
Sca
le
A
A
B
BD
C E
D
C
Ea
bd
ec
www.HSDent.com
1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932
Dow Masters & Johnson
Orgasm Cycle
Bubbles & Crashes Fits Perfectly with Male Orgasm Model: Dow 1929
Source: Bloomberg, Masters and Johnson
Orgasm
Excitement
&Plateau
(Arousal)
Desire
(Appetitive)
www.HSDent.com
$2.7
$3.2
$3.7
$4.2
$4.7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Tri
llions
Fed Balance Peaks Late 2014 at $4.52T, Tapers Down $754B to $3.76T
$4.516T
$3.762
$4.463
(+$702B From
Bottom)
Source: Federal Reserve
www.HSDent.com
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Trilli
ons
Excess Reserves Required Reserves
Bank Reserves at Fed Peak at $2.72T and Fall to $1.26T: Stress Point
Source: Federal Reserve
$1.58T
$225B
$1.26T
9/18
$2.72T
9/10/2014
www.HSDent.com
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
9/8/19 9/18/19 9/28/19 10/8/1910/18/1910/28/1911/7/1911/17/1911/27/1912/7/1912/17/1912/27/19 1/6/20 1/16/20 1/26/20 2/5/20 2/15/20 2/25/20 3/6/20 3/16/20
Bill
ions
Treasury Bills Purchased by the Fed Total Repurchase Agreements by the Fed
Fed Repo Injections Explode to $763B and Exploding: No Big Deal?
Source: Federal Reserve
$442B
(+$200B)
$321B
(+0.0B)
$763B
Total
(+$200B)
www.HSDent.com
$3.76
$3.86
$3.96
$4.06
$4.16
$4.26
7,650
8,150
8,650
9,150
9,650
10/1/19 10/15/19 10/29/19 11/12/19 11/26/19 12/10/19 12/24/19 1/7/20 1/21/20 2/4/20 2/18/20 3/3/20 3/17/20
Tri
llions
Final Orgasm Stage: Stocks Surge with Repo QE Then Crash w/ VirusNasdaq vs. Fed Balance Sheet
Fed Balance
Sheet (Trillions)
Moved Forward
2.5 Weeks
Nasdaq
Source: Yahoo! Finance, Federal Reserve, Dent Research
www.HSDent.com
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
$5.0
$5.5
$6.0
$6.5
$7.0
$7.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Tri
llions
Fed Prints as Much in 8 Months as It Did in 80 Months: Exponential!
$4.52T
$3.76T
$7.16T
Source: Federal Reserve
$0.88T
+$3.4T
+$3.6T
8 months
80 months
www.HSDent.com
Zombie Companies Explode Especially from 2008 Recession Forward
Source: Axios Markets newsletter written by Dion Rabouin
www.HSDent.com
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
S&P 500 Clearly Broke Bottom Trendline from 2009: Bubble Over!
Source: Yahoo! Finance
2,192
3,394
www.HSDent.com
1,200
2,400
4,800
9,600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Nasdaq Finally Breaks Above Top Trendline with Major Throw Over Log Scale
Source: Yahoo! Finance
8,133
9,838
12,074
www.HSDent.com
Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03
700
1200
1700
2200
2700
3200
3700
4200
4700
5200
30
80
130
180
230
280
330
380
430
Jul-29 Nov-29 Mar-30 Jul-30 Nov-30 Mar-31 Jul-31 Nov-31 Mar-32 Jul-32 Nov-32
Dow, left
Nasdaq, right
1929 Dow vs 2000 Nasdaq Bubble Bursts: There’s a Pattern
Source: Yahoo! Finance
-78%
-89%
www.HSDent.com
17000
19000
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
170
220
270
320
370
Jul-29 Aug-29 Sep-29 Oct-29 Nov-29 Dec-29 Jan-30 Feb-30 Mar-30 Apr-30 May-30 Jun-30 Jul-30
9/3/192929,569
4/16/1930
5 Month Bounce
27,572
11/23/1929
Down 49%
29,199
Classic Scenario Like 1929: First Sharp Crash and 5.5-Month Bounce
Source: Yahoo! Finance
www.HSDent.com
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20
2941
2347
3394
2192
3588
S&P 500 Hits Megaphone Top at 3,588: Next Target 2,100, -41%
-20%
-35% 2100-41%
www.HSDent.com
6500
7500
8500
9500
10500
11500
12500
3/19/20 4/2/20 4/16/20 4/30/20 5/14/20 5/28/20 6/11/20 6/25/20 7/9/20 7/23/20 8/6/20 8/20/20 9/3/20 9/17/20
Nasdaq 100 Final Channel Final Blow-Off With Sept 2 Top at 12,439?
Source: Yahoo! Finance
12,439 12,400+
11,18011,265
www.HSDent.com
The Really Dumb Money Driving This Rally: Small Traders on Options
1.4
4.2
9.7
7.6
3.3
4.2
+5.5m
+4.3m
+2.8m
Source: Tao of Trading
www.HSDent.com
250
750
1,250
1,750
2,250
2,750
3,250
3,750
11,500
13,500
15,500
17,500
19,500
21,500
23,500
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Smart Money Flow Index, left S&P 500, right
Smart Money Selling into this Top Just as into 2000 Tech Bubble TopBloomberg Smart Money Flow Index vs. S&P 500
Source: Bloomberg
www.HSDent.com
Nasdaq Volatility Index Rose Into This Top, Like The One in February
Source: Yahoo! Finance
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
6500
7500
8500
9500
10500
11500
12500
13500
Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20
Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
NDX, left
VXN, right
www.HSDent.com
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
6,500
7,500
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
4,403
7,197
3,120
1,500
6,199
ASX 200 Bubble and Burst Scenario: Best Case 3,120, Worst 1,500
Source: Yahoo! Finance
www.HSDent.com
40%
122%
76%
65%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Australia
Government
Consumer
Corporate
Financial
Australia Debt Lower Than Most DCs, Except ConsumerP
erc
en
t o
f S
ele
cte
d D
ebt to
Na
tion
al G
DP
303% Total Combined
Debt to GDP!
Source: “Debt and (Not Much) Deleveraging,” McKinsey Global Institute, February 2015, ABS, Dent Research
www.HSDent.com
20.9
16.0
15.0
12.6
11.7
9.7
9.2
9.0
8.8
8.6
8.3
8.3
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
4.6
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.6
3.5
0 5 10 15 20
Hong Kong
Beijing
Shanghai
Vancouver
Sydney
Melbourne
Los Angeles
Auckland
San Francisco
Honolulu
London
Toronto
Miami
Seattle
New York City
Denver
Singapore
Phoenix
Tampa
Dallas
Chicago
Atlanta
Median Multiple (Home Price-to-Income)
Very High
Extreme
Moderately High
Closer to Normal
The Most Dangerous Real Estate Bubbles Globally NowChina, Australia, California, Canada & U.K. Dominate
Source: “15th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2019,” Demographia
www.HSDent.com
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048
Mill
ion
s
Real Home Price Index, left 42-year olds minus 84-year olds, right
Japan Net Housing Demand Never Bounced, Further Down Into 2033Peak Buyers (42) minus Dyers (84)
Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan, Dallas Fed
10
0=
200
5
www.HSDent.com
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1987 1993 1998 2004 2009 2015 2020 2026 2031 2037
Mill
ions
Real Home Prices, left U.S. Net Housing Demand (42 minus 78), right
Real Estate Will Never Be the Same: Dyers Slow into 2039 in U.S. U.S. Net Housing Demand, Peak Buyers (42) minus Dyers (78)
100
=2
005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Dallas Federal Reserve, Dent Research
20%41%
www.HSDent.com
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
1968 1982 1995 2009 2023 2036 2050
Real House Price Index, left Australia (40-44) minus (80-84), right
Australia: 42% Overvalued: Down into 2022, Bounce Then Down AgainPeak Buyers (40-44) minus Dyers (80-84)
Source: United Nations Population Division, Dallas Federal Reserve
10
0=
200
5
Th
ou
sand
s
-50%
-42%
www.HSDent.com
25
75
125
175
225
275
325
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Australia Eight City Index Suggests Range of 32%-49% Decline
Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics, Dent Research
+209% Rise
-71%
-49%
+341% Rise
Most Likely
Worst Case
Inde
x=
100
in
20
00 Best Case
-41%
-32%
www.HSDent.com
25
75
125
175
225
275
325
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Sydney Bubble Best Support in 2006 at 52% Down to 2006 Levels
Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics, Dent Research
+117% Rise
-70%
-52%
+342% Rise
Most Likely
Worst Case
Inde
x=
100
in
20
00
Best Case-43%
www.HSDent.com
Sydney Has Highest Capital Value/Rents: Gone Mad Since 2012
Source: : Reproduced from a report written by Savills World Research, a division of Savills (UK) Limited, with permission from Global Real Estate: Trends in the world’s largest asset
class, published in July 2017 by HSBC Holdings plc. HSBC is a trademark of HSBC Holdings plc and all rights in and to HSBC vest in HSBC Holdings plc.
www.HSDent.com
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Melbourne Bubble Best Support at 59% Down to 2006 Levels
Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics, Dent Research
+154% Rise
-76%
-59%
+527% Rise
Most Likely
Worst Case
-36%Best Case
Inde
x=
100
in
20
00
www.HSDent.com
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Brisbane Bubble Best Support at 39% Down to 2006 Levels
Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics, Dent Research
+73% Rise
-73%
-39%
+266% Rise
Most Likely
Worst Case
Best Case -20%
Inde
x=
100
in
20
00
www.HSDent.com
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Adelaide Bubble Best Support at 37% Down, Best Case Down 18%
Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics, Dent Research
+30%
-68%
-37%
+217% Rise
Most Likely
Worst Case
Best Case-18%
Inde
x=
100
in
20
00
www.HSDent.com
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Perth Bubble Most Hard to Predict: 20% to 35% Range, ‘06-‘09 Levels
Source: Australia Bureau of Statistics, Dent Research
+24%
-72%
-35%
+220% Rise
Most Likely
Worst Case
Best Case-20%
Inde
x=
100
in
20
00
www.HSDent.com
-77%-75%
-57%-55%
-46% -45%-42%
-34%-30% -29%
-15% -14%
-3%
-90.00%
-80.00%
-70.00%
-60.00%
-50.00%
-40.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
Investment Max Downside 2006-2020: Gold Near as Volatile as Stocks
www.HSDent.com
$45
$55
$65
$75
$85
$95
$105
$115
$125
19
/02
/202
0
21
/02
/202
0
23
/02
/202
0
25
/02
/202
0
27
/02
/202
0
29
/02
/202
0
2/0
3/2
020
4/0
3/2
020
6/0
3/2
020
8/0
3/2
020
10
/03
/202
0
12
/03
/202
0
14
/03
/202
0
16
/03
/202
0
18
/03
/202
0
20
/03
/202
0
22
/03
/202
0
24
/03
/202
0
26
/03
/202
0
28
/03
/202
0
30
/03
/202
0
1/0
4/2
020
3/0
4/2
020
5/0
4/2
020
7/0
4/2
020
9/0
4/2
020
11
/04
/202
0
13
/04
/202
0
15
/04
/202
0
17
/04
/202
0
19
/04
/202
0
21
/04
/202
0
23
/04
/202
0
25
/04
/202
0
27
/04
/202
0
29
/04
/202
0
1/0
5/2
020
3/0
5/2
020
5/0
5/2
020
7/0
5/2
020
9/0
5/2
020
11
/05
/202
0
13
/05
/202
0
SPY TLT GLD BTC-USD LQD
Safe Havens in Crash: T Bonds Best, Then Gold, Corp Bonds & Bitcoin ETFs Indexed to 100 on February 19, 2020: Stock Crash Shaded in Grey through March 23, 2020
Source: Yahoo! Finance
-16.8%
6.5%
13.7%
-3.6%-3.1%
-33.4%-34.1%
-12.5%
-3.6%
14.1%17.7%
7.6%
-48.4%
Gold
S&P 500
Bitcoin
T Bonds
Corp Bonds
www.HSDent.com
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
150
650
1150
1650
2150Gold, right S&P 500, left
Gold
S&P 500
Aggressive QE
Aggressive QE
Gold Mostly Risk-On and Bubbled Like Stocks, Except Stronger In QE
Source: Yahoo! Finance
www.HSDent.com
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20
Gold Near Channel Bottom at 1,910 Ahead, Hits 2,220 Target Late Sept
2220
1910
www.HSDent.com
Gold Has Resistance Ahead at 2,200: Late 2022 Low Target Is $1,000
2,200
www.HSDent.com
$200
$450
$700
$950
$1,200
$1,450
$1,700
$1,950
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Gold Peaks Near $2,200 Target With Lows Near $1,000 in Late 2022?
In our newsletter we gave a major sell signal for
gold and silver on April 25, 2011 five months
ahead of the top in gold and at the top in silver.
Critical
Break
at $1,525
Source: Bloomberg
$400
$700 Worst Case
Bubble
Origin
1
2
3
4
5
$970 Most Likely
$2,220
www.HSDent.com
Country
(Order of
Population)
GDP per
Capita
2000
GDP per
Capita
2018
Gains
2000-18
Change
in Urban
2000-18
$’s per
1%
Urban
$’s per
Year
Projection
at 85%
Urban
China $3,910 $19,800 $15,889 23%pts $691 $883 $24-27,000
India 2,848 8,148 5,300 6% 883 294 23-30,000
Indonesia 6,359 13,855 7,495 13% 577 416 19-23,000
Bangladesh 1,869 4,774 2,905 15% 194 161 7-10,000
Philippines 4,525 8,775 4,250 1% N/A 236 21-24,000
Vietnam 2,830 7,658 4,828 13% 371 268 20-23,000
Thailand 10,392 19,901 9,510 20% 475 528 35-38,000
Myanmar 1,709 6,628 4,919 4% 1,230 273 22-30,000
Malaysia 18,594 32,811 14,218 15% 948 790 34-35,000
Cambodia 1,503 4,474 2,971 6% 495 165 18-21,000
Asia’s Growth After China and East Asia: Southeast Asia and India
Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, The Conference Board
www.HSDent.com
• Sell Stocks into Final Rebound Likely Between Early September,
and Late October.
• Sell Non-Strategic Real Estate NOW Before Real Depression
Starts by Early 2021… What Worth in 2005? Most Likely Target
• Best Safe Havens: US and Australian Treasury Bonds, AAA
Corporate; Cash Flow Positive Residential and Medical
Rentals/REITs; and US Dollar as Currency.
• Dent Sector Fund Looks Forward to Thriving in the Volatile and
Counter-Trends Ahead; Get on List: www.dentsectorfund.com
• Sean Allison Has the Ultimate Thrive in Volatile Up and Down
Markets: Simple, Targeted, Risk-Protected Options
Summary Points
www.HSDent.com
U.S. Lowest on Money Printing: China Worse as Prints Condos!
125.4
40.536.034.6
www.HSDent.com
Safe Haven US Dollar Mostly Between 80 and 120: 120 Target in Crisis