‘Like it or Lump it’

Glimpses of the future

Forces shaping the future

• Globalisation – connected, competitive, faster

Forces shaping the future

• Globalisation• Life cycle – low birth rate, more single

people, longer life expectancy & later retirement

Forces shaping the future

• Globalisation

• Life cycle• Information & other technologies –

many technologies, the Grid, postmodern values

Forces shaping the future

• Globalisation

• Life cycle

• Information & other technologies• Me-society – mass-customisation, an it-

must-fit-me-world

Forces shaping the future

• Globalisation

• Life cycle

• Information & other technologies

• Me-society• Politics – disillusionment, consumer

politics, who decides

Forces shaping the future

• Globalisation• Life cycle• Information & other technologies• Me-society• Politics• Shape of society – more middle class -

the poor left behind? More feminine?

Forces shaping the future

• Globalisation• Life cycle• Information & other technologies• Me-society• Politics• Shape of society• Economy – labour shortages, relationships,

work central

Forces shaping the future

• Globalisation• Life cycle• Information & other technologies• Me-society• Politics• Shape of society• Economy• Sustainability – prospects

Forces shaping the future

• G lobalisation• L ife cycle• I nformation & other technologies• M e-society• P olitics• S hape of society• E conomy• S ustainability

THE SHRINKING CHURCH

1979-89 – 13% decline in England

1989-98 – 22% decline in England

Less than 1.00% attendance by 2016?

A CHANGING CHURCH

• The shrinking church

• A mass approach doesn’t work

We treat everyone the same

But society is more personalised

An it-must-fit-me world

A CHANGING CHURCH

• The shrinking church

• A mass approach doesn’t work

• Subversive incarnation

DOING CHURCH DIFFERENTLY

• From “you come to us” to “we’ll come to you”

• From Sunday church to weekday church

• From missionary congregations to missionaries

• From “we’ll do it on our own” to “we’ll do it together”

A THEOLOGICAL BASIS

• Mission central to church

• Incarnation central to mission

• Trust central to incarnation

• Accountability central to trust

The Tomorrow Project

• Independent charity• The future of people’s lives - 20 year

timescale• Wide range of topics • Research, consultation and

communication• 24 supporters• Tomorrow Network

Why think about the future?

• We all have assumptions about the future – are they valid?

• If we want to shape the future, we need to plan for it

• It helps us to understand the present

A four-stage approach

• What’s happening now?

• What forces will shape the future?

• What alternative futures exist?

• So what?

A middle class society

• Decline of manual workers

• From to

• Spread of middle class values

Globalisation

• Greater interdependence

• Partnerships at HE

• Global competition at secondary level?

Postmaterialist attitudes

• Strong leadersself-expression

• Economic growthquality of life

• Families focused on childrenfocused on self-gratification

• Religious rules/structurespersonal search for meaning

Tomorrow’s Workplace

• The new economy

• The relationship economy

• The fulfilment economy

• The all-age economy