LIGHTNING DEATHS IN GREAT BRITAIN AND IRELAND

By TREVOR BAKER Television South, Southampton

HE odds against anyone being killed by lightning in any one year in England and T Wales are about 13 million to one, in Scotland 17 million to one, in Northern Ireland 31 million to one, and in the Republic of Ireland nearly 9 million to one. These figures emerge from the statistics of lighting deaths during the 20 years 1961 to 1980 for the United Kingdom, and the years 1954 to 1973 for the Irish Republic. In the previous 20 years in England and Wales the incidence of such deaths was considerably higher, as shown in Table 1.

TABLE 1. Lightning deaths in England and Wales

Decade All Male Female deaths deaths deaths

1941-50 92 76 16 1951-60 96 78 18 1961-70 45 34 11 1971-80 30 26 4

Total 1941-80 263 214 49

Recent work by Webb (1984) (Table 3, page 54) shows some decade-to-decade variation in thunderstorm frequencies, with 1951-60 being the most thundery in the last 80 years at Kew and Manchester, but the variation is less than the decreases in fatalities shown in Table 1. The most likely explanation of the dramatic reduction in lightning deaths is that fewer people were working outdoors and this tends to be borne out by the fact that the numbers engaged in agricultural and horticultural work in the United Kingdom decreased from 1331 OOO in 1950 to 651 OOO in 1980 - a drop of 49 per cent - although there was no similar trend towards fewer deaths in Scotland and Ireland. There was a similar decrease in the number of deaths reported in the USA between 1940 and 1974 (Golde and Lee 1976) and this was attributed to the movement of population from country areas into towns. However, the number of lightning fatalities amongst American hikers, climbers and other outdoor enthusiasts increased markedly in the same period.

Certainly in this country fewer women than men work outdoors and this is reflected in Table 1 - about 4.3 times as many men have been killed by lightning in England and Wales. Pakiam et a1 (1981) reported that in Singapore over the period 1956 to 1979 the male/female ratio for lightning deaths was 4.7, and suggested a ratio of 4.5 in Australia.

SCOTLAND

In Scotland only one female was killed by lightning between 1951 and 1980, but eight males died (see Table 2). The risk for both sexes is considerably lower than in England and Wales, and the decadal distribution does not exhibit the same kind of changes as in England and Wales: 1961-70 had more deaths than 1951-60, and 1971- 80 had only half the 1961-70 total. The total number of occurrences, however, is too small for significant conclusions to be drawn.

Statistics for Scotland for 1941-50 are not available, because before 1951 lightning deaths were included in the categories of deaths from 'heat or cold' and not classified separately.

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TABLE 2. Lightning deaths in Scotland TABLE 3. Lightning deaths in the Republic

deaths deaths Period Male Female deaths deaths

of Ireland Decade Male Female

1951-60 3 0 1961-70 4 0 195469 0 0 1971-80 1 1 1970 4 0

1971 0 1 Total 1951-80 8 1 1972 0 0

1973 1 1

Total 1954-73 5 2

NORTHERN IRELAND

Little can be written about Northern Ireland in this context because between 1941 and 1980 only one death in the province was attributed to lightning - one male in 1970.

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

There were no lightning deaths in the Republic between 1954 and 1969, but seven between 1970 and 1973 (Table 3).

For the 20-year period 1954 to 1973, the odds against anyone being killed in an average year by lightning were 8.6 million to one, of a male being killed six million to one, and of a female being killed 15 million to one.

GREATEST RISK

The greatest risk, then, is to males in England and Wales with one chance in 4.2 million per year based on the 40-year period, but down to 1 in 7-9 million per year for 1961-80 - both representing a very tiny risk. There are many aspects of everyday life which involve much greater hazard - for example crossing the road, swimming, and riding horses or bicycles. Even the chance of being murdered is almost two hundred times as great.. .

OTHER COUNTRIES

Statistics of lightning deaths in other countries are hard to come by. Pakiam et a1 (1981) compiled the statistics reproduced here in Table 4.

TABLE 4. Comparison of death rate (per million) for various countries

Country Period Death rate per millions per annum

~

United Kingdom 1951-60 Australia 1950-60 U.S.A. 1959-65 Austna 1964-68 German Federal Republic 1952-60 Republic of South Africa 1963-69 ReDublic of Singapore 1961-79

0.2 0-4 0.6 1.3 0.8 1 -5 1.7

Most of the periods in Table 4 are quite short, but we can, on the same coarse

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scale, add Table 5 (overleaf):

TAEILE 5. Death rate (per million) in the British Isles

Period Death rate per millions per annum

United Kingdom 1951-80 0.1 United Kin dom 1961-80 0.1 Republic ohreland 1954-73 0.1

RISK OF LIGHTNING DEATH IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

The data for the United Kingdom can be used to assess the risk of death overall and in the constituent countries over various periods as in Table 6.

TABLE 6. Odds against death by lightning in one year (Millions to one)

PERIOD 1941-80 1951-80 1961-80

UNITED KINGDOM An person Mares Females

9.0 13.6 5.4 8.2

24.7 35.8 _____ ~~~

ENGLAND Any person 7.0 8.3 13.0 AND Males 4.2 5.0 7.9 WALES Females 19.5 22.3 33.5

SCOTLAND Any person 17.3 17.4 Males 9.3 10.0 Females 80.9 54.2

NORTHERN An person 57.1 44.5 30.8 IRELAND Mares 27.8 21.8 15.1

Females Infinite Infinite Infinite

REFERENCES

1179 Golde, R. H., and Lee, W. R. (1976) Proc. Insr. Efecrr. Eng. 123, No. 10R, Reviews, pp. 1163-

Pakiam, J. E., Chao, T. C., and Chia, J . (1981) Mer. Mug. 110, pp. 175-187 Webb, J. D. C. (1984) Thunder in Britain and the abnormal June of 1982. Weather 39 (2), pp.

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