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8/13/2019 Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 1
8/13/2019 Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 2
C
....................................................................................................................................................... 3
L R P I........................................................................................................ 4
I .................................................................................................................................................. 5F F R ............................................................................................................................................ 10
C O ..................................................................................................................................................... 11
C: B P ................................................................................................................... 12
E: NF P ................................................................................................................ 13
E: E H ............................................................................. 14
E: J G / L ................................................................................................................ 15
E: J G/L () .............................................................................................. 16
E: H F ......................................................................................................................... 17
E: I R NF P .................................................................................. 18
E: F ............................................................................................................................... 19
E: P, L F, E .................................................................................... 20
E: L F P R ............................................................................................. 21
E: ..................................................................................................................... 22
C C: M ............................................................................... 23
C C: C B ...................................................................................... 24
C: O ............................................................................................................................ 25
C: B L L .................................................................................................................... 26
R : N .................................................................................................................................. 27
R : R ......................................................................................................................................... 28
R : R ........................................................................................................................ 29
R : E A ...................................................................................................................... 30M: H ................................................................................................................... 31
M: O ............................................................................................................................... 32
O: C G ................................................................................................................................. 33
M: D ............................................................................................................ 34
E: C .................................................................................................................................. 35
E: P...................................................................................................................................... 36
: M ................................................................................................................... 37
: G C ...................................................................................................... 38
I: R D I C .............................................................................................. 39
I: C & P P....................................................................................................... 40I E ................................................................................................................................. 41
8/13/2019 Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 3
Summary
"G":
D N L N M C R N
"B":
O G 0.2% ( 3 ) A 3 +17% +3% A C O G 1%
. H, .
2014.
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 4
Lighthouse Recession Probability Index
8/13/2019 Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 5
Introduction
R . K
.
I , NBER (N B
E R). NBER "
" (, , GDP ).
NBER ' ;
(D 2007) D 1, 2008 . B , &P
500 I 1,575 741. , J 2009
20, 2010 . B , &P 500
940 1,142.
NBER
( NBER ' ,
).
.
H, , &P 500
O 2007,
8 .
, F R B (
). H, ,
.
( 2 G, , D
) . ,
IRP (
).
I , ECRI (E C R I),
, "".
C B L I &P 500 I,
M2 (
).
A ,
NBER .
8/13/2019 Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 6
R GDP ; O A 28, 2008 ( 8
" "), Q2 2008 GDP +1.9%
+3.3%, 2% . L, 1.3%,
3.7%, 9.2% 5.4% (, ). &P 500 I '
2 1/2 .
F ""
NBER.
O 50 , : F.
, . D
F
. A F.
;
"" ( 3 ).
. O
( , ,
).
. O :
( ) ( ) /
8/13/2019 Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 7
N . ( )
( ). . ("")
; ("")
. A ,
. A 50% ,
100% .
"L R P I" (LRPI)
. H (: 3)
(: 1). O LRPI
1971, ( 40%50% ).
F R B . L C / P
( ). I ( , ,
). H, C/P
, LRPI (1 ).
LRPI C/P.
I , C "
80% ". A, "" 70% (2003/4) .
20% A 2012, 1.7% .
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 8
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 9
40% LRPI ( 40%) .
&P 500
( ):
A LRPI 7% (A 1980)
(2001) ' ' (20082009).
. ('') (
)
(19822000).
P LRPI .
8/13/2019 Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 10
Fed Funds Rate
("F") 9 .
F F ;
. A 2 4.5
1954.
R . ; .
( ) , ( )
. N
.
L R P I.
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 11
Crude Oil
A 75% 100% . C M 2011 F 2012. C . C $113/ . LRPI
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 12
Construction: Building Permits
? N ! A 25%+
. M 2001 . 2011 . A 1990/91
( 250 316 2013).
C . H,
. LRPI.
8/13/2019 Lighthouse Macro Report - 2013 - December
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 13
Employment: Non-Farm Payrolls
"", , .
"" . A
1% .
; "" 1980 1982
. , "E ",
(>40 ). "H " ( ) 60,000
. O , , .
D ? O 47% A . 2007, , 2.5
. P "" . F
(Q1 2008) Q1 2010 1.2 "" ( $2154) ;
2 0.8 . 4
($1421) , 0.9 . A ($7$14), 1.3
, 2 . LRPI.
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 14
Employment: Establishment versus Household Survey
N B E R (NBER) E
H .
O ( ). H,
. E .
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 15
Employment: Jobs Gained / Lost
C 191,000 (12 ) .
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 16
Employment: Jobs Gained/Lost (zoomed-in)
E 100,000, 300,000
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 17
Employment: Hire and Fire
E , 4 4 .
( ).
( ). ( ) ' ';
.
, 1/3 (4.2 12 = 50) .
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 19
Employment: Full Time
, .
P , ( ).
R :
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 20
Employment: Population, Labor Force, Employees
, , .
. N :
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 21
Employment: Labor Force Participation Rate
' '( ). M
, .
L , ( , ).
E .
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 22
Employment: Unemployment
L (49%) , 45.5% (, , ,
, ) , ' '
A . I, 2.5 2008. E
. I ,
, .
2007, 13 90, .
E .
, N 15.3%
( 7.0%).
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 23
Consumer Confidence: University of Michigan Survey
M, R, 500 ,
1964 100. A
.
(2005) (1981; 19801981 , ' ). A 25%+
. 2011 . LRPI
.
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 24
Consumer Confidence: Conference Board Survey
C B, , 3,000
. 18 .
.
(1992, 2003), 1981/2 2001 ( ). 2011 " ".
LRPI .
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 25
Credit: Total Outstanding
M . F 60
, 2009, 2% (
?). I 1987 ( ). A
: () ; ,
. , ,
. LRPI ,
.
Q2'09 CMDO GDP (374%). Q3'07 10.6%
( &P 500 1,575).
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 26
Credit: Bank Loans and Leases
1971, 2%
H,
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M R E I D 2013 P 27
Retail Sales: Nominal
F LRPI, " " ( ). N , .
:
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 28
Retail Sales: Real
N ; LRPI R :
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 29
Retail Sales: Real per-capita
R 5% N R :
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 30
Retail Sales: Excluding Autos
M , $80 1/5 , , .
O , 3% (A: +17%).
I Q4 2012, 45% (FICO
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M R E I D 2013 P 31
Manufacturing: Hours Worked
C ' A 2%
( 1996); LRPI
H
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 32
Manufacturing: Orders
I M (IM) ,, .
A 50 "" ( ). (1989).
LRPI .
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M R E I D 2013 P 33
Orders: Capital Goods
D , . "" . " "
5% 0%. LRPI. C .
D
G .
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M R E I D 2013 P 35
Energy: Consumption
I . . I 1% , '
L ,
C 100% "E " LRPI
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M R E I D 2013 P 36
Energy: Production
E . , , (1983, 1992, 1997, 2006), "";
2.5% . 0.5%
, .
I N, 1.8%, 100%
LRPI
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 37
Transportation: Miles Traveled
2.25 (0.7%) , . I
0.1% , (
).
2001 . 2011 (
). 2007 ;
1980/81. O ,
. A A
' .
, . ,
, LRPI. I M,
, .
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 38
Transportation: Gasoline Consumption
C , ;
"L" (1996) 2012 ( ) ,
0% " ", ,
. I LRPI.
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 39
Income: Real Disposable Income per Capita
I
G , ( )
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L I M
M R E I D 2013 P 41
Inflation Expectations
R = . R :
IP. 5 (), 10 () 30
() . "" ;
( ). , ,
. I :
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L I M
A .
A.G@LIM.
,
'
,
'
, , ,
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
, ()
() ,