Lifeline:Lifeline:A Knowledge Network Spanning the Rural Digital DivideA Knowledge Network Spanning the Rural Digital Divide

Workshop on Knowledge Networks

FAO Headquarters

Rome, Italy

Feb. 8-10, 2005

Sponsored byFood and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, USAFebruary 8-10, 2005

Contact: Raj.Reddy@cmu.edu, Anton.Mangstl@fao.org, Rahul.Tongia@cmu.edu

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The VisionThe Vision

Reduce hunger and food insecurityReduce hunger and food insecurity

……by providing direct access to knowledge and know-by providing direct access to knowledge and know-how to the people who need it, i.e., farmers in villages how to the people who need it, i.e., farmers in villages

Create a global infrastructureCreate a global infrastructure that connects end-users that connects end-users with existing knowledge with existing knowledge andand experts experts Providing access to essential knowledgeProviding access to essential knowledge

Eliminate gatekeepers to knowledgeEliminate gatekeepers to knowledge Reduce asymmetric informationReduce asymmetric information

Create efficiency and transparency in the supply chainCreate efficiency and transparency in the supply chain Improve farmer’s share in the value chainImprove farmer’s share in the value chain

Make information intrinsically availableMake information intrinsically available Social empowerment and accountabilitySocial empowerment and accountability

Access Access Data Data Information Information Knowledge Knowledge Action Action Opportunities Opportunities

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February 2005 Workshop: Consultative WorkshopFebruary 2005 Workshop: Consultative Workshop

Format: Format: Bring together experts from academia, industry, and Bring together experts from academia, industry, and FAO to study the feasibility of creating a global infrastructure for FAO to study the feasibility of creating a global infrastructure for directly linking end-users to expertsdirectly linking end-users to experts How would it work (stakeholders and design)?How would it work (stakeholders and design)? What would it take (effort and expenditure)?What would it take (effort and expenditure)? Will it be sustainable?Will it be sustainable?

Workshop Goal: Workshop Goal: Create a plan of action to realize the Lifeline Create a plan of action to realize the Lifeline knowledge networkknowledge network Design a system architecture for LifelineDesign a system architecture for Lifeline Determine a roadmap for deploying LifelineDetermine a roadmap for deploying Lifeline

R&D requiredR&D required Indicators for successIndicators for success Pilot projects/trials proposals, extending to global deploymentPilot projects/trials proposals, extending to global deployment

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Knowledge Networks Stakeholders Knowledge Networks Stakeholders and their Needsand their Needs

Rural Communities – individuals and representativesRural Communities – individuals and representatives Learn about and get better prices for Learn about and get better prices for inputsinputs (fertilizer, seeds, (fertilizer, seeds,

pesticides, etc.) and pesticides, etc.) and outputsoutputs (agro-products) (agro-products) Reduce transaction costs significantlyReduce transaction costs significantly Reduce damages from catastrophic conditions (weather, pests, Reduce damages from catastrophic conditions (weather, pests,

etc.)etc.)

Rural Service Providers – public and privateRural Service Providers – public and private Increase supplier and consumer basesIncrease supplier and consumer bases Improve supply-chain managementImprove supply-chain management

GovernmentsGovernments Create rural information networks whose value and utility extends Create rural information networks whose value and utility extends

beyond agriculturebeyond agriculture Data collectionData collection Information dissemination, etc.Information dissemination, etc.

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““Bill of Rights” for the Information SocietyBill of Rights” for the Information Society

Getting the right information to the right people, in Getting the right information to the right people, in the right timeframe, in the right language, with the right timeframe, in the right language, with

the right granularitythe right granularity

- - Jaime Carbonnel (c. 1998)Jaime Carbonnel (c. 1998)

Farmers typically unable to tap into even Google-like Farmers typically unable to tap into even Google-like sources of informationsources of information

Often illiterate or functionally illiterateOften illiterate or functionally illiterate Lack connectivity, especially data connectivityLack connectivity, especially data connectivity Rarely have relevant information accessibleRarely have relevant information accessible

Internet and existing databases/portals give too much raw (and Internet and existing databases/portals give too much raw (and unverified) informationunverified) information

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Achieving the “Bill of Rights”Achieving the “Bill of Rights” Right InformationRight Information

Rural users ask Lifeline network any question Rural users ask Lifeline network any question they they wantwant

Right PeopleRight People Sharing relevant information with all potentially impacted people, not just those who ask Sharing relevant information with all potentially impacted people, not just those who ask

questionsquestions

Right LanguageRight Language Spoken language interaction in all languagesSpoken language interaction in all languages ““Knowledge Officers” for collecting, transcribing, translating, analyzing, creating, indexing, Knowledge Officers” for collecting, transcribing, translating, analyzing, creating, indexing,

and disseminating informationand disseminating information

Right TimeframeRight Timeframe Response within minutes if answer exists in the database or within a few hours to days if Response within minutes if answer exists in the database or within a few hours to days if

it requires expert inputit requires expert input

Right GranularityRight Granularity Synthesize an actionable summary from multiple documents as an “encyclopedia on Synthesize an actionable summary from multiple documents as an “encyclopedia on

demand”demand”

Bill of Rights can only be exercised if Lifeline network is Bill of Rights can only be exercised if Lifeline network is accessibleaccessible and and affordableaffordable

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Example Applications of Lifeline NetworkExample Applications of Lifeline Network

Hierarchical structure spanning districts, regions, countries, etc. Hierarchical structure spanning districts, regions, countries, etc. Outside experts interact with higher level Knowledge OfficersOutside experts interact with higher level Knowledge Officers Builds up an ever-increasing multimedia databaseBuilds up an ever-increasing multimedia database

Can provide static (e.g., best-practices) as well as dynamic (e.g., weather, prices, etc.) informationCan provide static (e.g., best-practices) as well as dynamic (e.g., weather, prices, etc.) information

Innovative mechanisms and processes for information digitization, exchange, analysis, and disseminationInnovative mechanisms and processes for information digitization, exchange, analysis, and dissemination

Must also strengthen local/neighboring and peer-to-peer interactionsMust also strengthen local/neighboring and peer-to-peer interactions Farmers themselves are often the best source of locally relevant knowledgeFarmers themselves are often the best source of locally relevant knowledge

An illiterate farmer goes to a Village Knowledge Officer (with a computer connected to a multimedia database) and asks a question in his or her local language

The KO retrieves answer from local Multilingual database within minutes 80 - 90% of the time

For the remaining 10 - 20% of the time the KO puts up the question to a higher level office and gets an answer back, typicallyin less than 24 hrs

100s of domain experts populate the databases, both as part of their jobs and as volunteers (say, 2 questions per week)

Multi-level Information Flow - An archetypal scenarioMulti-level Information Flow - An archetypal scenario

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AV data collection, Transliteration and TranscriptionInformation Retrieval

Translation, Information Retrieval

Verification of Query-Answer RelevanceAnd RFP to domain experts

Knowledge Management& Coordination (national level)

Domain experts: Volunteer toanswer at least 2 questions a week(or part of job responsibility)

District

State

Knowledge officers and Domain ExpertsKnowledge officers and Domain Experts

Knowledge Management& Coordination (global)

World

Nation

Expe

rtise

of K

now

ledg

e Offi

cers

Village

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District Region/Nation (sub)continent

Records question of the end-user in audio-video format. Enters text transcription of the question.

Searches local languagedatabase for answer

Need not be knowledgeable in English.

Enters translation of questions.

Searches multilingual database for answer

Sends answer after translation to lower level

If question not among FAQs or automated system, sends to higher level

Picks questions of critical nature and validates the answer provided at lower level

If critical or unanswered question, puts up request to experts even if not paid for by end-user

Same as next level up, but with the range of analyses broadened to the region/subcontinent level

3,000 people

Transcription (and possibly Transliteration)

300,000 people

Translation andInformation Retrieval

0.3B people

Knowledge Management& Coordination

Roles of Knowledge OfficersRoles of Knowledge Officers

30M people

Verification &RFP from Experts

Global

Brings experts to where their knowledge is needed.

Mobilization of resources towards their need.

Identifies and triggers initiatives to control “epidemic”-like problems

3 Billion people

Knowledge Analysis and Inference

Village

(All numbers shown are for rural, developing country populations = beneficiaries)

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Design AssumptionsDesign Assumptions End-users interact at Village Knowledge CentersEnd-users interact at Village Knowledge Centers

Equipped with a networked computer and basic A/V Equipped with a networked computer and basic A/V equipmentequipment

Staffed by a Knowledge OfficerStaffed by a Knowledge Officer Humans are intrinsic to Knowledge Networks Humans are intrinsic to Knowledge Networks

(raw information (raw information knowledge!)knowledge!)

Domain experts provide answers to previously Domain experts provide answers to previously unanswered questionsunanswered questions

Many answers converted into an “encyclopedia-on-Many answers converted into an “encyclopedia-on-demand” video documentary at higher-level centers demand” video documentary at higher-level centers centers and dubbed into local languagescenters and dubbed into local languages

Lifeline Network also available for direct access Lifeline Network also available for direct access browsing by literate and networked usersbrowsing by literate and networked users

1111

Read text formatquestion

Search multilingualdatabase for answer

Write Translation

Found Answer?

Send questionto higher level

No

Give translated answer to KO1

Yes

X

X

Load Questions& answers

Look for QoCN*

Is confidence

of KO2 good?

Request DomainExpert for answer

Yes

Is critical

Yes

No

No

X

X

X

Read statistics of FAQs and answers

from experts to questions

Generate reports;Reorganize data

to create reliable answers to Critical

or Frequently asked questions;

Mobilizes resources towardstheir need.

Identifies and triggersInitiatives to control

“epidemic-like” problems

X

Record the question:Up to 1 min video

Transcribe into local language

Search local cache

Collect 10 cents

Found Answer?

Give answer to User

X

Yes

Send questionto higher level

Inform user: may cost moreif personalized processing

required

No

Yes

X

State/NationKO

Regional and Global KODistrict KO

Village KO

Sample WorkflowSample Workflow

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Assume One Level-1 Knowledge Officer per village (cluster)

1 Min of video allowed per question.= ~ 5 min. of prep/processing time by KO1= ~12 Questions per hour

Only 15% are unanswerable, and forwarded to KO2

Requisite higher order KOs required to answer the questions at each step of the hierarchy• Assumes 85-90% hit rates (being able to answer the question without sending the question up• Assumes 5 – 10 minutes per question total time

Repeats at each hierarchy

Factors in seasonality, working hours, etc.

Information stored as a combination of text, graphics, audio, and video• Corresponds to tens of thousands of TeraBytes (TB) of storage per year

Number of Knowledge OfficersNumber of Knowledge OfficersDistrict State/Nation Region/Sub-

continentGlobal

20,000,000 people1,000 people 400,000 people 0.5B people 3B people

Number of officers needed at different levels

Village

Per Division Basis (KO=Knowledge Officer)KO1 KO2 KO3 KO4 KO5

Village-Cluster 1.0 District 100 30 Nation/Region 10,000 3,000 450 (sub)Continent 100,000 30,000 4,500 600 Global 1,000,000 300,000 45,000 6,000 750

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Business ModelBusiness Model Model viability based onModel viability based on

Per question costs ~ 20 cents (net)Per question costs ~ 20 cents (net) Can be <10 cents depending on assumptions such as hit (success) Can be <10 cents depending on assumptions such as hit (success)

rate, ability to synergize infrastructure, etc.rate, ability to synergize infrastructure, etc. Marginal costs are much lowerMarginal costs are much lower

6 questions per capita (rural, developing country) per year, or 6 questions per capita (rural, developing country) per year, or 0.6 questions per family per week0.6 questions per family per week

1 million rural Knowledge Centers established 1 million rural Knowledge Centers established Less than one per villageLess than one per village

Includes all the remote hardware, including telecom Includes all the remote hardware, including telecom systemssystems Network could be utilized for other development needs as well!Network could be utilized for other development needs as well!

Would be adding billions to the rural economy, but only Would be adding billions to the rural economy, but only costing a little over $1/year per personcosting a little over $1/year per person

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Total Budget (Annual) Total Budget (Annual) indicative—steady state conditionsindicative—steady state conditionsGlobal costs by level ($/year) KO1 KO2 KO3 KO4 KO5 continued…

[per unit annual cost] 1,200$ 2,000$ 8,000$ 40,000$ 80,000$ Village-Cluster 1,000,000 1,200,000,000 - - - - District 10,000 - 600,000,000 - - - Nation/Region 100 - - 360,000,000 - - (sub)Continent 10 - - - 240,000,000 - Global 1 - - - - 60,000,000

sub-total 1,200,000,000 600,000,000 360,000,000 240,000,000 60,000,000

Global costs (cont.) Computers Servers Storage A/V equipment Other Staff (Hi) Other Staff (Lo) TOTAL-Basic

[per unit annual cost] 250$ 1,300$ 500$ 20,000$ 10,000$ 2,000$ Village-Cluster 250,000,000 - - - - - 1,450,000,000 District 75,000,000 39,000,000 3,302,772 - 50,000,000 60,000,000 827,302,772 Nation/Region 11,250,000 5,850,000 16,513,860 2,000,000 5,000,000 9,000,000 409,613,860 (sub)Continent 1,500,000 780,000 9,908,316 400,000 7,500,000 5,000,000 265,088,316 Global 187,500 97,500 3,302,772 20,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 68,607,772

337,937,500 45,727,500 33,027,719 2,420,000 65,500,000 76,000,000 3,020,612,719

Other costs per site (annual) Rental Training/R&D Misc-capital Misc-operational Telecom TOTAL-Misc

Village-Cluster 50$ 50$ 40$ 100$ 360$ 600,000,000$ District 2,400$ 2,000$ 300$ 500$ 1,000$ 62,000,000$ Nation/Region 3,600$ 100,000$ 1,000$ 1,500$ 2,500$ 10,860,000$ (sub)Continent 20,000$ 250,000$ 3,000$ 5,000$ 10,000$ 2,880,000$ Global 75,000$ 5,000,000$ 10,000$ 10,000$ 50,000$ 5,145,000$

sub-total 74,635,000$ 87,500,000$ 43,140,000$ 105,210,000$ 370,400,000$ 680,885,000$

Telecom costs are critical and depend on whether we build an new optimized system or use stop-gap measuresThese costs are also non-linear depending on penetration (1 per two villages vs. 1 per village will have a different *per unit* cost)

Grand total by level ($/year) at site total globally by level

Aggregating per level

Salaries Equipment Operating aggregated per level

Village-Cluster 2,050$ 2,050,000,000$ incl. levels within 1,200$ 250$ 600$ 2,050$ District 88,930$ 889,302,772$ 191,000$ 36,730$ 66,200$ 293,930$ Nation/Region 4,204,739$ 420,473,860$ 22,840,000$ 4,029,166$ 6,728,600$ 33,597,766$ (sub)Continent 26,796,832$ 267,968,316$ 253,650,000$ 41,550,495$ 67,574,000$ 362,774,495$ Global 73,752,772$ 73,752,772$ 2,601,500,000$ 419,112,719$ 680,885,000$ 3,701,497,719$

Total 3,701,497,719$

NOTE: all cash flows trickle up from the villagesAmounts at left (per level) are by location of net cash utilization

gross costs 3,701.50$ per village-cluster per yearper rural person gross 1.23$ per year

Little over $1 per rural person in a developing country)

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Scaling OptionsScaling Options Distributed deployment - grows over timeDistributed deployment - grows over time

Begin with “low hanging fruit”Begin with “low hanging fruit” Selection by geographic coverageSelection by geographic coverage Selection by socio-economic coverage Selection by socio-economic coverage Selection by infrastructure availability (telecom, power, etc.)Selection by infrastructure availability (telecom, power, etc.) Can begin with one village per district firstCan begin with one village per district first

Initial deployment will have limited answers in the databaseInitial deployment will have limited answers in the database Will impact economics during “teething period”Will impact economics during “teething period”

Actual villages vary in size (distribution)Actual villages vary in size (distribution) ““How many unconnected villages are there?”How many unconnected villages are there?”

What’s a village?What’s a village? How many are there, of what size?How many are there, of what size? What connectivity is or isn’t available?What connectivity is or isn’t available?

Assume min. 3,000 people (or other threshold) required to have a Assume min. 3,000 people (or other threshold) required to have a Knowledge CenterKnowledge Center

Lose a small percentage of the population but a large number of villages – Lose a small percentage of the population but a large number of villages – work in clusters of villages insteadwork in clusters of villages instead

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Issues: Hardware/System Issues: Hardware/System Lack of user literacy let alone e-literacy!Lack of user literacy let alone e-literacy! Robustness: Repairs/warranty/operating conditions and physical Robustness: Repairs/warranty/operating conditions and physical

securitysecurity Even a simple water pump lies idle in parts of the world due to lack of Even a simple water pump lies idle in parts of the world due to lack of

parts/maintenanceparts/maintenance

Telecom availabilityTelecom availability Bandwidth is key to multimedia applicationsBandwidth is key to multimedia applications Even affects system (database) designEven affects system (database) design

Electricity availabilityElectricity availability Else requires standalone power (expensive)Else requires standalone power (expensive)

Do the technology solutions (language, interface, expert systems, Do the technology solutions (language, interface, expert systems, multimedia searchable databases, etc.) exist? multimedia searchable databases, etc.) exist? Will take several years to build up appropriate vocabularies, syntax models, etc.Will take several years to build up appropriate vocabularies, syntax models, etc.

Seeking perfection should not delay good enoughSeeking perfection should not delay good enough What database(s) structure is optimal and multimedia searchable? What database(s) structure is optimal and multimedia searchable?

Distributed? Unstructured?Distributed? Unstructured?

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Issues: Business and PolicyIssues: Business and Policy

Financial ViabilityFinancial Viability Average numbers may be misleadingAverage numbers may be misleading

Some big farmers (or agribusiness) contribute most to the Some big farmers (or agribusiness) contribute most to the outputoutput

How do we determine user and operating How do we determine user and operating priorities?priorities? Willingness to pay?Willingness to pay? Timeliness?Timeliness? Importance – as per whom?Importance – as per whom?

Intellectual Property issuesIntellectual Property issues Risk of amplification of existing dividesRisk of amplification of existing divides

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Issues: “Trust”Issues: “Trust”

What is a “wrong” answer?What is a “wrong” answer? How do we know or find out if it was wrong?How do we know or find out if it was wrong?

Subjective answers are harder to monitor than objective (“numbers”) Subjective answers are harder to monitor than objective (“numbers”) onesones

What is done about it?What is done about it? Issues of liability and recourseIssues of liability and recourse

Danger of monopolies, misinformation, etc.Danger of monopolies, misinformation, etc. How to oversee the KOs?How to oversee the KOs?

How do we train the KOs?How do we train the KOs? How to sensitize and “train” end-users?How to sensitize and “train” end-users?

Incomplete or incorrect questions will lead to similarly Incomplete or incorrect questions will lead to similarly problematic answersproblematic answers

System must become incorporated into user decision-makingSystem must become incorporated into user decision-making

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More Than Just Internet ConnectivityMore Than Just Internet Connectivity

This is infrastructure plus information This is infrastructure plus information ““Bill of Rights” Bill of Rights”

Potential additional uses of Lifeline networkPotential additional uses of Lifeline networkOther development agencies and institutionsOther development agencies and institutions

E.g., Health Internetwork (WHO) todayE.g., Health Internetwork (WHO) today Doesn’t include accessDoesn’t include access Doesn’t cater to the rural poorDoesn’t cater to the rural poor

Public and private usersPublic and private usersFAO should not wait for them (or the “market”)FAO should not wait for them (or the “market”)

2020

Market Mechanisms Don’t Always WorkMarket Mechanisms Don’t Always Work

Some infrastructure requires governmental pushSome infrastructure requires governmental push E.g., Rural Electrification or the National Highway E.g., Rural Electrification or the National Highway

System in the USSystem in the US Developing countries need concerted (global) effortDeveloping countries need concerted (global) effort

Rich get richer in a global economyRich get richer in a global economy Lifeline network levels the playing fieldLifeline network levels the playing field

Population still growing in developing countries Population still growing in developing countries

with less land available and increasing with less land available and increasing

deterioration of soil productivitydeterioration of soil productivity

The longer we wait, the harder the challengeThe longer we wait, the harder the challenge

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Conclusions and ActionsConclusions and Actions

At an annual cost of ~$1/rural capita, creating a Lifeline At an annual cost of ~$1/rural capita, creating a Lifeline knowledge network is an optimal use of global capitalknowledge network is an optimal use of global capital

Stakeholders and countries must agree on a Stakeholders and countries must agree on a deployment plandeployment plan R&DR&D Pilots and demonstration (100 deployments)Pilots and demonstration (100 deployments) Selected regions and geographies (10,000 deployments)Selected regions and geographies (10,000 deployments) Increasing densities (100,000 deployments)Increasing densities (100,000 deployments) Global (1,000,000 deployments)Global (1,000,000 deployments)

Minimum penetration target (% by year 20_ _):Minimum penetration target (% by year 20_ _):““20 by '10, 50 by '15, 100 by '20”20 by '10, 50 by '15, 100 by '20”

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Detailed information Detailed information available in the spreadsheet…available in the spreadsheet…

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Thank you!Thank you!