LIFECOURSE POLICIESLIFECOURSE POLICIESANDAND

SOCIAL REGIMESSOCIAL REGIMES

Paul BernardPaul BernardProfessor of SociologyProfessor of SociologyUniversitUniversitéé de Montrde Montrééalal

Second KELA lectureSecond KELA lectureThe Social Insurance Institution, HelsinkiThe Social Insurance Institution, Helsinki

25 November 200525 November 2005

In search of policies for In search of policies for ‘‘the good societythe good society’’

The French Revolution had it right when it The French Revolution had it right when it called for called for ““Liberty, Equality, and SolidarityLiberty, Equality, and Solidarity””Liberty and solidarity are empty words in the Liberty and solidarity are empty words in the absence of some measure of equalityabsence of some measure of equalityI share Amartya SenI share Amartya Sen’’s basic intuitions basic intuition•• societies should provide all of their members with societies should provide all of their members with

the basic resources: health, education, and the basic resources: health, education, and economic securityeconomic security

What is What is ‘‘the good societythe good society’’??

Complex dialectics, historically contingent Complex dialectics, historically contingent equilibriaequilibriaHow can we assess if we are getting closer to How can we assess if we are getting closer to ‘‘the good societythe good society’’? ? It has to do withIt has to do with•• welfare regimeswelfare regimes•• and how they shape the lifecourse in different waysand how they shape the lifecourse in different ways

“We have to move away from an assumed world of perfectly competitive and perfectly clearing markets. We have to allow for at least some of the contingencies for which the welfare state was created.”

Anthony B. Atkinsonin the first KELA Lecture, 2004

THE LIFECOURSE THE LIFECOURSE FRAMEWORKFRAMEWORK

The lifecourse perspectiveThe lifecourse perspective

Two representations of the lifecourse perspectiveTwo representations of the lifecourse perspective

•• The Canadian Policy Research Initiative's "A The Canadian Policy Research Initiative's "A lifecourse approach to social policy analysis" : lifecourse approach to social policy analysis" : OliviaOlivia's story's story

•• Multiplex causal processes in people's Multiplex causal processes in people's trajectories and the need for general trajectories and the need for general household panel studieshousehold panel studies

Source: Policy Research InitiativeSource: Policy Research Initiative

Source: Policy Research InitiativeSource: Policy Research Initiative

Source: Policy Research InitiativeSource: Policy Research Initiative

A representation of the lifecourse perspective

The lifecourse frameworkThe lifecourse framework

The lifecourse framework rests on four The lifecourse framework rests on four related principlesrelated principles

Life is longitudinalLife is longitudinalLife is multiLife is multi--facetedfacetedLives are linkedLives are linkedLives unfold in socially constructed Lives unfold in socially constructed contextscontexts

Life is longitudinalLife is longitudinal

Individuals, as human agents, build their future Individuals, as human agents, build their future on the basis of the constraints and opportunities on the basis of the constraints and opportunities provided by their pastprovided by their pastThe process is iterativeThe process is iterativeThere are significant disparitiesThere are significant disparities•• in circumstancesin circumstances•• in the quality of the knowledge availablein the quality of the knowledge available

The process is cumulative: initial advantages or The process is cumulative: initial advantages or disadvantages often are amplified with timedisadvantages often are amplified with time

Life is multiLife is multi--facetedfaceted

Individuals use, and also accumulate or loose, Individuals use, and also accumulate or loose, various interdependent forms of capital over various interdependent forms of capital over their lifecoursetheir lifecourseThree basic resources (health, literacy, and Three basic resources (health, literacy, and economic security) can be seen as both causes economic security) can be seen as both causes and consequences of one another as the and consequences of one another as the lifecourse unfoldslifecourse unfoldsSocial capital: through social networks, Social capital: through social networks, individuals can mobilize other useful resources individuals can mobilize other useful resources for themselves, their families and their for themselves, their families and their communitiescommunities

Lives are linkedLives are linked

Individuals are involved in Individuals are involved in ““linked liveslinked lives””,,largely through family and generational largely through family and generational relationshipsrelationshipsLinked lives mean that the lifecourse of Linked lives mean that the lifecourse of individuals is profoundly affected by what individuals is profoundly affected by what happens in the lifecourse of their family happens in the lifecourse of their family members, and vice versamembers, and vice versa

Lives unfold in local contextsLives unfold in local contexts

Local communities offerLocal communities offer•• various levels of opportunities (for instance various levels of opportunities (for instance

jobs, quality of schools and childcare services, jobs, quality of schools and childcare services, physical security, quality of the environment, physical security, quality of the environment, availability of commercial services)availability of commercial services)

•• and various levels of support (sociability, and various levels of support (sociability, community organizations)community organizations)

These obviously shape the trajectories of These obviously shape the trajectories of residents, especially for the more placeresidents, especially for the more place--bound bound subsub--populations, such as children, the aged, the populations, such as children, the aged, the handicapped, and the poor.handicapped, and the poor.

Lives unfold in societal contextsLives unfold in societal contexts

Provincial and national jurisdictions also play a key Provincial and national jurisdictions also play a key role in shaping the lifecourse, through their belonging role in shaping the lifecourse, through their belonging to regimesto regimesHistorical context is also important to lifecourse. It is Historical context is also important to lifecourse. It is well captured in the sociowell captured in the socio--demographic conceptual demographic conceptual triptych oftriptych of•• ageage, the individual passage of time from early , the individual passage of time from early

dependence to independence, and then to some dependence to independence, and then to some dependence againdependence again

•• cohortcohort, the conjunctions of biographical and , the conjunctions of biographical and historical timehistorical time

•• and and generationgeneration, the interpersonal aspect of the , the interpersonal aspect of the passage of timepassage of time

The power of the notion of lifecourseThe power of the notion of lifecourse

A paradigmatic ideaA paradigmatic idea•• lifecourse may become for social policieslifecourse may become for social policies•• what national accounts have been for what national accounts have been for

economic policieseconomic policiesThe lifecourse also reaches across and The lifecourse also reaches across and brings together three related levels: brings together three related levels: practice, research, and policy.practice, research, and policy.

The lifecourse and the changing of The lifecourse and the changing of policy mindsets: examplespolicy mindsets: examples

Poverty and economic mobilityPoverty and economic mobilityThe importance of the early years The importance of the early years (and the role of generations)(and the role of generations)The dynamics of retirement and The dynamics of retirement and active agingactive agingHealth and the earning/caring Health and the earning/caring balancebalance

The challenges of lifecourse The challenges of lifecourse policiespolicies

The challenge of horizontality and indirect The challenge of horizontality and indirect effects of policieseffects of policiesThe challenge of the longer termThe challenge of the longer termThe challenge of orienting policies to The challenge of orienting policies to families, households and communitiesfamilies, households and communitiesCollaboratively rethinking governance Collaboratively rethinking governance using the lifecourse frameworkusing the lifecourse framework

How do societies and polities differ in How do societies and polities differ in their approach to the lifecourse?their approach to the lifecourse?

The The liberalliberal approach: individuals and families approach: individuals and families largely fend for themselves over their lifecourse, largely fend for themselves over their lifecourse, with meanswith means--tested social protection and very tested social protection and very unequally distributed incentivesunequally distributed incentivesThe The conservativeconservative approach: attending to approach: attending to important specific risks so as to maintain the important specific risks so as to maintain the position of individuals, and indirectly of families, position of individuals, and indirectly of families, over their lifecourseover their lifecourseThe The socialsocial--democraticdemocratic approach: adopting a approach: adopting a broader, lifecourse approach to risks, thus broader, lifecourse approach to risks, thus inducing individuals and families to be active and inducing individuals and families to be active and contributing to the sustainability of the welfare contributing to the sustainability of the welfare regimeregime

SOCIAL REGIMESSOCIAL REGIMES

What do regimes mean?What do regimes mean?Regimes areRegimes are•• global andglobal and•• resilientresilient

Regimes refer to the way societies divide up the work Regimes refer to the way societies divide up the work and organize the responsibilities for producing and and organize the responsibilities for producing and distributing well being between distributing well being between •• marketsmarkets•• statesstates•• families, andfamilies, and•• communitiescommunities

Three successive analytical Three successive analytical approaches using social indicatorsapproaches using social indicators

1.1. Welfare regimes and the causes of Welfare regimes and the causes of their resiliencetheir resilience

2.2. From welfare regimes to gender From welfare regimes to gender regimes regimes

3.3. Social regimes and the lifecourse Social regimes and the lifecourse perspectiveperspective

1 1 -- Welfare regimes and theWelfare regimes and thecauses of their resiliencecauses of their resilience

Pursue an exploratory avenue, guided by Pursue an exploratory avenue, guided by EspingEsping--AndersenAndersen’’s seminal works seminal workAvoid dependence on any arbitrary subset Avoid dependence on any arbitrary subset of indicators (inductive approach)of indicators (inductive approach)Take into account policies (20 indicators), Take into account policies (20 indicators), outcomes (12) and civic participation (4) outcomes (12) and civic participation (4) on 20 OECD countrieson 20 OECD countriesUse data reduction methods: cluster Use data reduction methods: cluster analysis of standardized indicatorsanalysis of standardized indicators

Institutional mechanisms that support political mobilization: Voter turnout at the latest elections, union membership, daily newspaper read, level of trust…

Situations : - Economic (growth, inflation, etc.) - Labour market (participation rates, unemployment rates, long-term unemployment, general government employment) - Family (female labour participation rate, fertility rates, average age of women at birth of their first child) - Health (life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rates) - Education (R&D: scientists and technicians)

Programs (most variables correspond to % of GDP):- Public administration (governmental outlays and receipts, final consumption expenditure) - Health (public expenditure on health, public expenditure on health as % of all public, number of physicians per 1000 persons) - Social Security (social security transfers, contribution of employers and employees) - Professional training (public expenditure) - Fiscal (investment, debt interest payments, income tax, subventions and other transfers) - Education (public expenditure on education) - Number of years (benchmark is 2000) since the first law on: (1) old age, disability and death, (2) sickness and maternity, (3) unemployment, (4) work injury, (5) family allowances.

Public space Path dependency

Gouvernemental programs

Political participation

Social situations

- History - Culture - Demography - Geography - Globalization

Using social indicators and data reduction Using social indicators and data reduction methods to characterize welfare regimes (2)methods to characterize welfare regimes (2)

Testing convergence vs. resilience of welfare regimes with Testing convergence vs. resilience of welfare regimes with data from the mid to late 80s and from the mid to late 90sdata from the mid to late 80s and from the mid to late 90s•• In the 90s, 3 + 1 regimes: socialIn the 90s, 3 + 1 regimes: social--democratic, liberal, democratic, liberal,

conservative and familialistic (conservative and familialistic (““latinlatin””))•• In the 80s, the same clustersIn the 80s, the same clusters•• Why this resilience?Why this resilience?

•• The same structure of clusters obtains when we use The same structure of clusters obtains when we use in the analysis only policies, only outcomes, and in the analysis only policies, only outcomes, and only civic participationonly civic participation

•• This suggests a causal mechanism for the This suggests a causal mechanism for the resilience of regimes: policies, outcomes and civic resilience of regimes: policies, outcomes and civic participation bear the imprint of one anotherparticipation bear the imprint of one another

Figure 4 - Hierarchical cluster analysis using all variables (1993-1998)

2 2 -- Gender regimes andGender regimes andwelfare regimeswelfare regimes

A feminist critique of welfare regimes: A feminist critique of welfare regimes: •• A maleA male--dominated model? Decommodification dominated model? Decommodification

and commodificationand commodification•• Where is the family?Where is the family?

Basic issues:Basic issues:•• reconciling earning and caringreconciling earning and caring•• while allowing women to lead an autonomous while allowing women to lead an autonomous

lifelife

Measuring gender regimesMeasuring gender regimes

Quantitative indicators of policies and Quantitative indicators of policies and outcomesoutcomescovering six aspects of the differences and covering six aspects of the differences and relationships involving females and malesrelationships involving females and malesanalyzed with factorial analysis of analyzed with factorial analysis of correspondence (allowing for an correspondence (allowing for an examination of both countries and examination of both countries and indicators on various dimensions)indicators on various dimensions)so as to identify the main determinants of so as to identify the main determinants of the position of women and men in the position of women and men in advanced societiesadvanced societies

STATE

FAMILYMARKET

Policies pertaining to commodification

and decommodification

Extent of state interventionism to allow a diversity of family models: policies regarding

defamilisation and the regulation of sexuality and

violence

Measures for conciliating work

and family

Outcomes in terms of women’s participation and presence in the political realm

Outcomes in terms of women’s

body rights, access to

contraception, share of unpaid and caring work and capacity to

form autonomous households

Outcomes in terms of women’s labour force participation

(activity rate, sector of

employment and pay inequalities)

Beyond gendered welfare regimes, Beyond gendered welfare regimes, gender regimesgender regimes

An unexpected result: societies are grouped into An unexpected result: societies are grouped into gender regimes in the same way they are gender regimes in the same way they are grouped into welfare regimesgrouped into welfare regimes…………but liberal countries do differ among but liberal countries do differ among themselves, as predicted by Othemselves, as predicted by O’’Connor, Shaver Connor, Shaver and and OrloffOrloffOne dimension refers to the One dimension refers to the ““jointednessjointedness”” of of earning and caring work in womenearning and caring work in women’’s livess livesThe second dimension refers to how much public The second dimension refers to how much public policies help women, and families, to reconcile policies help women, and families, to reconcile earning and caringearning and caring

3 3 -- Social regimes andSocial regimes andthe lifecourse perspectivethe lifecourse perspective

Starting from the impressive work of Huber and StephensStarting from the impressive work of Huber and Stephens•• are welfare states retrenchingare welfare states retrenching•• or being reconfigured towards more services, and indeed or being reconfigured towards more services, and indeed

towards activation?towards activation?Analyzing (with factorial analysis of correspondence)Analyzing (with factorial analysis of correspondence)•• a broader set of indicators (46) of policies and outcomes:a broader set of indicators (46) of policies and outcomes:

social expenditures (calibrated to the size of the target social expenditures (calibrated to the size of the target populations)populations)health expenditureshealth expenditureseducation expenditureseducation expenditureslabour market public programslabour market public programssocial outcomes (poverty, literacy, demography)social outcomes (poverty, literacy, demography)economic outcomes (participation, unemployment)economic outcomes (participation, unemployment)

•• on 20 advanced OECD countieson 20 advanced OECD counties•• first for the early 2000, and then for the mid and early 90sfirst for the early 2000, and then for the mid and early 90s

Sustainable welfare states:Sustainable welfare states:a tale of activation a tale of activation (1)(1)

Two main factors stand out in 2000Two main factors stand out in 2000•• the first distinguishes Scandinavian from liberal and South the first distinguishes Scandinavian from liberal and South

European countries, with North European countries in an European countries, with North European countries in an intermediate positionintermediate position

•• the second distinguishes liberal countries from most continentalthe second distinguishes liberal countries from most continentalEuropean ones, with Scandinavian countries in an intermediate European ones, with Scandinavian countries in an intermediate positionposition

Cluster analysis (using 2 factors or all factors) shows Cluster analysis (using 2 factors or all factors) shows that there are basically four regimesthat there are basically four regimes•• NordicNordic•• AngloAnglo--SaxonSaxon•• North EuropeanNorth European•• South EuropeanSouth European

20002000

Cluster analysis: all factorsClassification hiérarchique directe

Allemagne

Belgique

Autriche

France

Suisse

Portugal

Italie

Grèce

Espagne

Irlande

USA

Nouvelle-Z.

Australie

Royaume-Uni

Canada

Finlande

Norvège

Danemark

Suède

Sustainable welfare states:Sustainable welfare states:a tale of activation (2)a tale of activation (2)

The structure is much the same in the midThe structure is much the same in the mid--90s90sIn the early 90s, the first factor is just about the same, In the early 90s, the first factor is just about the same, but there is more confusion on the second factor, with but there is more confusion on the second factor, with AngloAnglo--Saxon and continental European countries more Saxon and continental European countries more interspersed, though some laissezinterspersed, though some laissez--faire countries (USA) faire countries (USA) and Southern European ones stand outand Southern European ones stand outIn other wordsIn other words•• the Scandinavian model has been present for the the Scandinavian model has been present for the

whole periodwhole period•• the (neothe (neo--)liberal model has been expanding to most )liberal model has been expanding to most

AngloAnglo--Saxon countries, although the USA stands outSaxon countries, although the USA stands out•• Northern continental Europe has moved somewhat in Northern continental Europe has moved somewhat in

the direction of the activation modelthe direction of the activation model

19951995

19901990

Sustainable welfare states:Sustainable welfare states:a tale of activation (3)a tale of activation (3)

The first factor concerns activation, not The first factor concerns activation, not only in the labour market, but in all of only in the labour market, but in all of society: society: social investmentsocial investmentThe second factor differentiates countries The second factor differentiates countries according to their more or less generous according to their more or less generous traditional programs: traditional programs: transfer welfaretransfer welfareThe reason we need two factors and not The reason we need two factors and not only one is that liberal countries tend to only one is that liberal countries tend to have neither type of programshave neither type of programs

What does a social investment state mean? What does a social investment state mean? (1)(1)

Social expendituresSocial expenditures•• Parental leavesParental leaves•• Old age servicesOld age services•• ChildcareChildcare•• Family servicesFamily services

Health and education expendituresHealth and education expenditures•• Public expenditures in educationPublic expenditures in education•• Public expenditures in healthPublic expenditures in health•• Expenditures in primary, secondary and tertiary Expenditures in primary, secondary and tertiary

educationeducation

What does a social investment state mean? What does a social investment state mean? (2)(2)

Labour market programsLabour market programs•• Active programsActive programs•• Employment servicesEmployment services•• Professional trainingProfessional training•• Helping the handicapped to workHelping the handicapped to work

OutcomesOutcomes•• Overall midOverall mid--high literacy, except for the very high high literacy, except for the very high

scores for Finlandscores for Finland•• Very high participation rates for males and females, Very high participation rates for males and females,

and for mothersand for mothers•• Very low child poverty ratesVery low child poverty rates

What does a transfer welfare state mean?What does a transfer welfare state mean?

Large old age benefitsLarge old age benefitsLarge passive expenditures with respect to the Large passive expenditures with respect to the labour marketlabour market•• unemployment compensation, especially for unemployment compensation, especially for

long term unemploymentlong term unemployment•• early retirement compensationearly retirement compensation

High levels of unemployment and long term High levels of unemployment and long term unemploymentunemploymentVery large differences between males and Very large differences between males and females in rates of unemployment and long term females in rates of unemployment and long term unemploymentunemployment

A three way raceA three way race…… but not but not necessarily to the bottomnecessarily to the bottom

Nordic countries: high activation and high social Nordic countries: high activation and high social investment regime, with lifecourseinvestment regime, with lifecourse--oriented oriented policies, costly but possibly sustainablepolicies, costly but possibly sustainableAngloAnglo--Saxon countries: a high activation, low Saxon countries: a high activation, low social investment regime, competitively social investment regime, competitively advantageous (at least in the short run) because advantageous (at least in the short run) because it is inexpensiveit is inexpensiveContinental European countries: a low activation, Continental European countries: a low activation, high transfer and low social investment regime, high transfer and low social investment regime, probably fiscally unsustainable and thus in need probably fiscally unsustainable and thus in need of reformof reformHence the historical importance of discussions on Hence the historical importance of discussions on the the ““European social modelEuropean social model””

Conclusion Conclusion (1):(1): towards towards ““social regimessocial regimes””

From welfare to globalized neoFrom welfare to globalized neo--liberalism, or to social liberalism, or to social investment?investment?Social investment means integrating policies around the Social investment means integrating policies around the notion of lifecoursenotion of lifecourseThe productive society and sustainable welfare regimesThe productive society and sustainable welfare regimesGender and defamilialisation are a key components of Gender and defamilialisation are a key components of the social investment welfare regimethe social investment welfare regimeThe new frontiers of welfare statesThe new frontiers of welfare states•• active ageing, and indeed lengthening the whole active ageing, and indeed lengthening the whole

working life (Atkinson)working life (Atkinson)•• immigrationimmigration

Active welfare states require public services, not only Active welfare states require public services, not only transferstransfers

Conclusion 2: Conclusion 2: How to elaborate How to elaborate policy in a lifecourse perspective?policy in a lifecourse perspective?

The key role of causality in research The key role of causality in research and policy workand policy workThe importance of comparative workThe importance of comparative workThe only useful science is genuine, The only useful science is genuine, independent science independent science