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1nteL!ratt1 Tcrro!sm Asscsrncnt (cntr (entrc nLr dLvaIuatH du tcrrorismTHRE4T ASSESSMENT

Objective

LIBYA:

Assessment note-

This ITAQassessment is infotmed by a body of opn reporting.

ITAC I CIET SECRET.14128-E

Targets and Tactics

3. Since the 2011 fall of Muammar Gadhafis regime, extremists have conducted near dailyassassinations bombings and kidnappings Libyan government interests as well as foreigndiplomatic staff, have been the main targets. In 2012,

attacked the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, killing theUS. Ambassador and three otherAmericans. That same year, a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) struck a convoy in Benghazicarrying the British Ambassador to Libya. In 2013, the French and United Arab Emirates(UAE) embassies in Tripoli were attacked,

4.

In December 2013, a suspected AAS extremist conducted asuicide attack against Libyan security personnel near Benghazi, in the first known suicidebombing since the fall of Gadhafi. In April 2014, another suicide attack was conducted at acheckpoint outside Benghazi.

ITAC / CIET SECRET1 4128-E

5. Since January 2014, extremists have kidnapped a number of foreign diplomats, including fiveEgyptians, two South Koreans, two Tunisians, and the Ambassador of Jordan to Libya.

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Khalifa Ilaftars operations against Islamist militias

7. In late May 2014, militiasaligned with former LibyanArmy General L.Khalifa Haftar, attacked Islamiststrongholds in Benghazi andTripoli, as well as the LibyanGeneral National Congress(GNC). The operations areallegedly aimed at rooting out1islamist extremism in Libya.,AAS declared Haftars assault awar on Islam and said it wasprepared to defend the city ofBenghazi.

8. In late May 2014, the GNC announced that Libyawould hold parliamentary elections on 2014 06 25.

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9. In a 2014 05 27 online statement, AAS accused Haftar of being an agent of U.S. intelligence,and that the U.S. and Western allies were seeking to install him as a new dictator. AASfurther threatened that shouldthe US. try to intervene, they would face the most severe ofwhat it experienced in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia. On 2014 05 26, a Libyan extremistgroup calling itself Ajnad aIKhilafah claimed responsibility for a car bombing in Tobruk

ITAC / CIET SECRETI 4128-E

(Eastern Libya) and threatened to conduct war upon those supporting Haftar.

10. On 20140531, AQIM issued a statement calling Haftars operations inLibyaa crusaderscheme, backed by the U.S. and conspirators from the Gulf countries, and urged Muslims tosupport Islamist fighters.

Embassy evacuations

12. In May 2014, several countries, including Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United ArabEmirates (UAE) evacuated their diplomatic staff from Libya due to deteriorating securityconditions. On 2014 05 28, the U.S. warned its citizens to leave the country,

As of 2014 05 29, the Canadian Embassy in Tripoli remains openOn 2014 06 01, the Department of

Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development (DFATD), raised its warning level for Libya to itshighest level, advising Canadians against all travel to the country.

Canadian presence in Libya

13

According to DFATDs Registration ofCanadians Abroad (ROCA), as of 2014 05 29, there are Canadians registered in Libya;however, the actual number may be higher.

ITAC I CET SECRET.14/28-E

HANDLING INSTRUCTIONS

This document is the property of the Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre (ITAC). Preparcd by ITAC, it isderived from various sources with information effective as of the date of publication. It is provided to youragency/department in confidenceand may be further disseminated by your agency/department to those withappropriate security clearances and appropriate security systems to retain the information. It must not be reclassifiedotreused in any way, in whole or in part, without the consent of the originator. Any feedback should be directedvia Mandrake emailto: Internal Users:

External Users: 4andrake

This document constitutes a record which may be subject to mandatory exemption under the Access to hmfonno.iionAd or the Privacy Act. The information or intelligence may also be protected by the provisions of the CanadaEvidence ACt. The information or intelligence must not be disclosed or used as evidence without prior consultationwith ITAC.

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(1itrL intrc Iittion di itrortsrnY 1ituratd Ic rurIIn Asssn:nt

EVALUATION DE LA MENACE

LIIIYE

Objectif

Notad. La prsente evaluation sappuie sur de nombreux renseignements de sources ouvertes

CIET/ ITAC SECRET,14/28-F

Cibles et mthodes

3. Depuis Ia chute du rgime de Mouammar Kadhafi en 2011, des extrmistes se sont livrspresque tous les jours a des assassinats, des attentats a Ia bombe et des enlvements dont lesprincipales cibles ont t les intrts du gouvernement libyen ainsi que les membres dupersonnel diplomatique etranger. En 2012,

sen sont pris au consulat des Etats-Unis a Benghazi, tuant ainsilambassadeur des Etats-Unis et trois autres Amricains. La mme anne a Benghazi, unegrenade propulse par fuse a t lance sur un convoi qui transportait Iambassadeur duRoyaume-Uni en Libye. Puis, a Tripoli en 2013, les ambassades de la France et des Emiratsarabes unis ont t la cible dattentats,

4.

En effet, le premier attentat suicide depuis la chute de

CIET/ ITAC SECRET14/28-F

Kadhafi a t commis en dcembre 2013 prs de Benghazi par un extrmiste souponndappartenir a AAC contre des responsables libyens de Ia scurit. Puis, en avril 2014, unautre attentat suicide a t perptr a un poste de contrle de Ia circulation a. proximit deBenghazi. r .

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5. Depuis janvier 2014, des extrmistes ont enlev plusieurs diplomates trangers, dont cinqEgyptiens, deux Sud-Corens et deux Tunisiens, ainsi que larnbassadeur de Ia Jordanie enLibye.

Operations de Khalifa Haftar contre Its milices islamistes_LL

7. A Ia fin de mai 2014, desmilices alignes surKhalifa Haftar, un ancien 7general de larme lihyennei,.

lance des attaques contre desbastions islarnistes a. Benghaziet a. Tripoli ainsi que contre leCongrs gndral national(CGN) de Ia Libye. Le but desoperations serait deradiquerlextrmisrne islamiste enLibye. AAC a qualifi lassautde Haftar de > contrelislam et a dclar tre prt adfendre Ia yule de Benghazi.

8. le CGN a annonc a Ia fin de mai 2014 que des electionsparlementaires auraient lieu en Libye le 2014 06 25.

CIET/ ITAC SECRET14/28-F

9. Dans une declaration publie en ligne le 201405 27, AAC a accuse Haftar dtre un agentde lappareil de renseignement amricain et a indiqu que les Et.ats-Unis et ses alliesoccidentaux tentaient de le hisser au rang de nouveau dictateur. AAC a aussi mentionn quesi les Etats-Unis tentaient dintervenir, us allaient faire face au de ce quilsont vcu en Afghanistan, en Irak et en Somalie. Le 2014 05 26, un groupe extrmiste libyense faisant appeler > a revendiqu Iattentat a Ia voiture pige survenu aTobrouk (dans lest de Ia Libye) et a menace de Iivrer une aux partisans deHaftar.

10. Le 2014 05 31, AQMI a dclar que les operations de Haftar en Libye taient un complot de soutenu par les Etat&Unis et les < conspirateurs >> des pays du Golfe et a pri lesmusulmans dappuyer les cmbattants islamistes.

Evacuations dambassade

12. En mai 2014, plusieurs pays, dont lAlgrie, IArabie saoudite et les Emirats arabes unis, ontfait sortir de la Libye les membres de leur personnel diplomatique en raison de Iadtrioration de Ia situation scuritaire. Le 2014 05 28, les Etats-Unis ont demand a leurscitoyens de quitter Ia Libye, En datedu 2014 05 29, Iambassade du Canada a Tripoli dtait toujours ouverte et pour linstant,

Le 2014 06 01, le ministr des Affaires trangres, Commerce et Dveloppement Canada

CZETI ITAC SECRET14128-F

MANIPULATION DE RENSEIGNEMENTS

I.e present documentest Is prnprilC du Centre integre devaluation du terrorisme (CIET) Cf a etC prepare par celui-ci. II sappulesur des informations qui proviennent de diverses sources CL qui sont valables i Is date de publication. II esi fourni a votreorganicrne ou ministCre C titre confidenhel et peut Ctre communiqu directcrnent par votre organisrue on ministCre aux perconnesqui possdent Ia cote de sCcuritC nCcessaire CL Ins systCrnes de sdcuritC appropriCs pour conserver ens informatioiss. II ne doit Ctreni reclassifiC ni r6utilisC, de quelque maniCre que cc soil, en tout ou en partie, sans Ic consentement de lexpCditeur. Lesobservations doivent Cire aeheininCes par courriel (Mandrake) sax adresses suivantes

Destiiiataires a IinterncOestinataires a Iexterne Mandrake

Ce preaent document pent faire lobjet dune exception aux tensies de Ia Lot cur iaccC,s a linformat ion et de a i,oi cur laprotection &s renseigne?nents personnels. On pourra Cgalement sopposer a a communication des inforrnauons ou desrenscignements quil contient en vertu de Ia Lol stir Ia preuve an Canada. Ces informations on renscignements ne doivent CIre nicommuniqus ni utilisCs comnie precive sans consultation pralable du CIET.