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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution The developments since 17 th February 2011

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In just 3 years we moved from this The Chairman of National Transitional Council (NTC), on the left, handing over the Legislative Power to the eldest member of the General National Congress (GNC) in a ceremony in Tripoli, 20 th August 2012 The outgoing PM of the Transitional Government (appointed by NTC), on the left, handing over the Executive Power to the incoming PM of the Interim Government (appointed by GNC) in a ceremony in Tripoli, 17 th November 2012

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to this Food supplies warehouses destroyed by an air strike in Benghazi, 5 th June 2014 Four Fuel tanks, Tripoli airport road, burning after being hit by mortar shells, 6 th August 2014

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How did this happen? Benghazi, 14 th July 2014Tripoli airport, 18 th July 2014 Benghazi, February 2011 Tripoli, 17 th February 2012

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution ~ 93% the Population live along the coast (Population 6.2 Million, 2013)

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution 15 th February 2011, peaceful demonstrations started in Benghazi, 17 th February 2011, Zentan in the West, and most of the towns East of Benghazi joined the popular revolt, 20 th February 2011, the regime lost the whole Eastern Region, and in the West Misurata, az Zawia, Zwara and most of the Nafousa (Western) Mountain joined the popular revolt. And the demonstrations erupted in Tripoli and reached the heart of Tripoli (Martyrs Square) Gadhafi's son, Sef al-Islam made a televised speech warning of violent crackdown, The same night, using heavy machine guns (anti aircraft guns mounted on pickup trucks), security forces attacked and dispersed crowds from Martyrs Square, unknown number of civilians were killed, 22 nd February 2011, Gadhafi made his infamous speech from the ruins of his Bab Azaizia barracks in Tripoli threatening to wage a war to cleanse Libya of the rats & cockroaches, meaning those who opposed him, International community was alarmed, two swift UNSC resolutions (1971 & 1973) were adopted, and followed by a resolution to enforce a No-Fly-Zone over the whole country to protect civilians,

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution 15 th February 2011

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution 17 th February 2011 Zintan

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution 20 th February 2011 Zintan Yefren Jadu

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution Crackdown in Tripoli proceeded relentlessly and soon the revolt in Tripoli was contained, with a heavy cost in number of people killed and detained, The regime moved on to az Zawia, after a bloody siege it fell on 9 th March 2011, Zwara didnt take long and it fell on 10 th March, The towns and villages of Nafousa Mountain, which joined the revolt, became under siege, The siege of Misurata, the bloodiest, started straight after the fall of az Zawia, and lasted for about three months, A large force moved on towards Benghazi, it was in a race to retake Benghazi before the enforcement of the No-Fly-Zone (19 th March 2011), The attack was defeated on the morning, and NATO airplanes destroyed the column all the way to Ajdabya, 160 Km south of Benghazi, In the East, the military situation was a stalemate from March to August 2011, Misurata, the revolutionaries pushed back the attack to a safe distance from the city, and became a stalemate there from May to August,

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution Front lines till August 2011

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution The breakthrough came in the West, when the revolutionaries came down from the Nafousa Mountain to take a strategic road crossing, ~80 Km from downtown Tripoli, on 20 th July 2011, Three weeks later, they started pushing towards az Zawia and to the West, and they were within 60 Km from Tripoli Airport, az Zawia was liberated on 16 th August, and from that point the days of the regime were numbered, In a well planned move, the suburbs of Tripoli revolted on the 20 th August 2011. The Bab Azaizia barracks were stormed on 23 rd August, and officially the regime was over, The dictator fled Tripoli to Sirte, on the 18 th /19 th August, which became under siege till 20 th October, the day the dictator was captured and killed, The NTC declared the total liberation of Libya on 23 rd October 2011.

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution Revolutionaries moved down from the Nafousa Mountain to take a strategic road crossing, ~90 Km (via Az Zawiyah) from downtown Tripoli, on 20th July 2011,

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution The NTC adopted a Constitutional Declaration (CD), on 3 rd August 2011, Article 30 of the CD drew a road map for the second transitional period; National elections to elect the General National Congress (GNC), The GNC to: Appoint an Interim Government, Hold national elections to elect the 60 members Constituent Assembly Committee of the Sixty (C60) which will draft the new constitution, National referendum on the new constitution, Hold national elections to elect the parliament, The mandate of the GNC ends with the convening of the parliament, and this seals the transitional period. This should be latest December 2013, no set date, just calculation of time (number of months) required for each task (Constitutional Merit), Delay was inevitable, and some used it as an excuse,

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution The NTC amended Article 30, two days before the national elections of the GNC, Changed the process of setting up the Constituent Assembly from being appointed by the GNC to being elected by the people, On the 7th July 2012 national elections were held, for the first time since 1966, to elect the GNC. The elections were peaceful, transparent and well organized, and some 1.7 million voters participated in the elections. The NTC handed over the legislative authority to the GNC peacefully on the 20th August 2012. A case was filed at the Supreme Court against the constitutionality of the last minute change of Article 30, The Court ordered the GNC not to proceed with the process of the Constituent Assembly, this freeze lasted 7 months, before the GNC could start working on the assembly,

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution The elections of the GNC were hailed as a victory of secular coalition over Islamic groups, Claims of majority were untrue, GNC Convened on 20 th August 2012, The coalition Alliance of National Forces (ANF) lost every election inside the GNC, Its candidates lost the election of Chairman, first & second deputies to the Chairman of the GNC Its candidate for PM of the Interim Government lost, Tried to replace the Governor of the Central Bank, the Head of General Intelligence, and the Chief of Staff of the Military, but its moves were voted down, Its candidates for the General Office of Audit & the Agency for Administrative Oversight were both defeated, It refused offers for cooperation before the GNC convened, thinking it had a majority, refused and insisted on taking it into the floor (votes),

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution Around September/October campaigns attacking the GNC, discrediting it and demonizing it. It was obvious that once the ANF realized that it did not have the votes to progress its agenda, it decided to kill the GNC. The ANFs members in the GNC played a visible role in this campaign, By October 2013, 269 attacks, demonstrations, set-ins, disrupted the proceedings & meetings of the GNC, some lasted several weeks when the buildings of the GNC were occupied, The Interim Government, led by Ali Zeidan (the PM), supposedly an independent but once sworn into office allied with the ANF, refused to protect the GNC, In October 2013, when it became obvious that the GNC was way behind of schedule on the Constitution, a campaign to end the term of the GNC was launched under the logo No to Extension, i.e. not to extend the term of the GNC,

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution Satellite channels owned by business people allied with the ANF, one of them is Abdel Majeed Mleigta, General Secretary of the ANF, took lead role in the campaign, Demonstrations, public campaigns and in some cases violence led the GNC to amend the CD twice. The 6 th Amendment, February 2014, changed the road map, Article 30, to provide for two scenarios. Scenario A, the C60 prepares a draft constitution by end of July 2014, and then the GNC continues as the legislative body and complete the process as set in the original version of the road map. Scenario B, is taken if the C60, after two months of its first session, requests more time to finish drafting the constitution. Then the GNC calls for national elections to elect a new legislative body, House of Representatives (HoR), by July 2014, handover to the HoR and a third transitional period starts. To prepare for scenario B, the GNC appointed a committee, the February Committee, to prepare the 7 th Amendment to be ready in case scenario B becomes true.

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution Pressure continued and violence against the GNC escalated demanding going straight to Scenario B without waiting for the progress of the C60. So, the 7 th Amendment was implemented and a date, 25 th June 2014, was set for elections of the 200 members HoR. Violence escalated, Militias in Tripoli, lead by Zintanis but most of its force were drawn from the security battalions of the previous regime, Controlled the airport, Occupied Military Logistics Compound, Tripoli Airport Road, Occupied several military Barracks, among them the one housing the offices of the General Command of the military, and offices of the Chief of Staff, near and around Tripoli Airport Road, Occupied Ministry of Interior, Tripoli Airport Road, Renegade military General (retired) Khalifa Haftar launched a campaign against the city of Benghazi on 16 th May 2014, The siege of Benghazi is now in its 5 th month,

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution Activists in Tripoli, fed up of the violence and criminality on and around Tripoli Airport Road started mobilizing for a revolt to expel the militias, The date was set for 20 th Ramadan (18 th July 2014), the anniversary of the 2011 revolt of Tripoli The militias escalated their violence, intimidation and publically threatened the use of violence, The escalation of violence, prompted the Chairman of the GNC, as a Commander in Chief of the Military to order the battalions from Libya Shield, from Midland and Western Regions, to mobilize and evict the militias from Tripoli. Fajr Libya (Dawn of Libya) operation started on 13 th July.

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution Looking back on events of 20 th August 2011: Two possible explanations of the rapid collapse of the dictators forces on the 20 th August 2011: Either the losses sustained by their troops in the 6 months of war finally broke their back, Or the remainder of the leadership of the regime dawned on them that they were fighting a loosing battle, and hence decided to save their forces from further losses, and wait to fight another day, Looking back on events since then, especially developments over the past 12 months, the second explanation seems more plausible, The intelligence gathered from the barracks and offices of the militias evicted from Tripoli revealed that the core of these militias were soldiers and officers from the dictator's HQ personal guard and the special units headed by his son Khamees, killed in an air raid on the outskirts of Tripoli on 23 rd August 2011, The fighting to liberate Tripoli in the Summer of 2014 is a posponed fighting from the Summer of 2011.

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Libya: 3 Years after the 2011 Revolution Current Situation: Around 50+ members of the HoR assembled in Tubruk. In the beginning they were around 150, but many withdrew, HoR is claiming legitimacy, but those in Tubruk dont represent majority, GNC claims that it is still in charge since the constitutional process of handing over to HoR has not been respected by the Tobruk Group, The Constituent Assembly is reporting that it is close to finish the draft copy of the constitution, End of November, Way forward, The HoR is a product of derailment of the Democratic Process (as set in Article 30 before the 6 th Amendment), GNC should continue, CA should hasten its work and set a date for referendum, Then set a date for the General elections and end this Transitional state,

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Thank you