LIBERIA 1 1 How do you build a Results Framework? DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS

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How do you build a Results Framework?

DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS

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DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS: OBJECTIVES

Understand causal logic (cause and effect)

Create good results statements Apply the Results Framework

rules to create/refine a results Framework

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Problem AnalysisLet’s review some of the work

from Session 1.

• What is the problem reflected by the highest level result?

• Why are you doing the activities at the bottom?

• What connects the two?

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Cause and effect relationship Example: Infant mortality

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ANALYSIS OF PROBLEM PROBLEM LEVEL

High rates of mortality among infants 0-12 mos. WHY? MORTALITY

Diarrhea disease rates are very high among infants 0-12 mos; many die from diarrhea. WHY? DISEASE

Mothers are giving breast milk substitutes to infants under 6 monthsMothers are taking infants 7 – 12 mos. off the breast and feeding plain porridge prepared with unclean water. WHY?

BEHAVIOR

Mothers believe that breast milk alone does not satisfy infants 0-6 mos.Mothers believe that porridge is an adequate food for infants 7 –12 mos.Grandmothers insist on following traditional practices. WHY?

BELIEF

Mothers do not know that unclean water will make infants sickMothers do not know that an infant does not need other foods besides breast milk up to 6 mos.Mothers do not know that an infant benefits from breast milk up to two years.

KNOWLEDGE

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Defining specific activities to fix the causes of the problem

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Which causes are more responsible for a larger part of the problem (whose reduction or elimination will contribute more to reducing the overall problem) ?

Which causes do we have capacities to address?

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Cause and effect relationship Example: Infant mortality

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ANALYSIS OF PROBLEM SOLUTION LEVEL

High rates of mortality among infants 0-12 mos. To reduce infant

mortality

Diarrheal disease rates are very high among infants 0-12 mos; many die from diarrhea.

To reduce incidence of diarrheaWHY?

Mothers are giving breast milk substitutes to infants under 6 monthsMothers are taking infants 7 – 12 mos. off the breast and feeding plain porridge prepared with unclean water.

To change feeding behavior

WHY?

Mothers believe that breast milk alone does not satisfy infants 0-6 mos.Mothers believe that porridge is an adequate food for infants 7 –12 mos.Grandmothers insist on following traditional practices.

To change beliefsWHY?

Mothers do not know that unclean water will make infants sickMothers do not know that an infant does not need other foods besides breast milk up to 6 mos.Mothers do not know that an infant benefits from breast milk up to two years.

Family training in potable water and

breast feedingWHY?

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Climate change has affected the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chira, Peru.

Without conservation measures and improved water resources management, water will become scarce in the long-term.

Populations affected are essentially divided into two groups:

the highland people the lowland people.

Understanding the “Peru Water Project” Problem/Case

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Understanding the “Peru Water Project” Problem/Case (continued)

Land clearing for agriculture and investments in water management infrastructure is controlled by the Municipality and guided by the interest of the local community.Conflicts exist between the two groups as decisions made do not necessarily include the interests of the other group.The project intends to address the problem by creating opportunities for joint highland/lowland decision-making processes based on scientific information. The objective is reached by these Activities:

Promotion of Stakeholder Conferences Facilitation of Action Groups.

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What is Causal Logic?

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Causal Logic is a way to demonstrate your theory of how the Activities delivered by your project lead to the Objective (“change in the condition of the customer”).

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Activities

Specific

Objective

Specific

Objective

Ob

ject

ive

Activities

Activities

Activities

Activities

Intro to Table Exercise 1: Developing a Causal Logic Chain

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Table Exercise I

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Each table receives an envelope with cards.

Task:Organize the cards in a causal logic chain that flows from the bottom up with the “Activity” (at the bottom) and the “Project Objective” at the top; post in order on desk.

Working time: 5 min.

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Project Objective: Strengthening basic climate change knowledge, capacity, and decision-making of key stakeholders in two Watersheds

Activity 1: Facilitate action groups

Activity 2: Promote stakeholder conferences

To assure good representation at the conference

To establish effective decision-making processes

To avoid conflicts over water

To promote politically balanced decisions

To increase investment in improved water resources management

To generate the political will to change water management decision making

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Intro to Task II: Building a Causal Logic Chain

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Objective

Activities

Activities

Activities

Activities

Why? = Specific ObjectiveWhy? = Specific Objective

Why? = Specific Objective

Why? = Specific ObjectiveWhy? = Specific Objective

Why? = Specific Objective

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Use your work from Task I that shows your Results Framework and major Activities listed across the bottom.Review the causal logic for each activity by asking the question “WHY” from the bottom up.Add or subtract A4 papers to complete the causal logicStop when the answer to the question “WHY” is the highest level Result


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Task II a: Review the Causal Logic Chain of Results Framework (RF)

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Use your flip chart from Task I that shows your Project Objective at the top and Activities listed across the bottom.Build the causal logic for each activity by asking the question “WHY” from the bottom up.Write the answer to each question on a card and tape it in placeStop when the answer to the question “WHY” is the Project Objective.


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Task II b: Build a Causal Logic Chain

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What is a Result?

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Specific Objective

Specific Objective

Objective

Activities

Activities

Activities

Activities

Result

Intermediate Result 1 Intermediate Result 2

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What Is a Result? A Result = Amount of change achieved or a

problem solvedDef. p 69, ResultDef. p 60, Customer

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Results are expressed in terms of a desired future condition, often ending or beginning with the words ‘increased’ or ‘decreased’.

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Types of Results: USAID DefinitionsDevelopment Objective

(Def. p 59, Assistance Objective – same)

The most ambitious result that a USAID Operating Unit, along with its partners, can materially affect, and for which it is willing to be held accountable.

Intermediate Result (IR)An important result that is seen as an essential step to achieving an Assistance Objective. IRs are measurable results that may capture a number of discrete and more specific results. IRs may also help to achieve other IRs.

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CHARACTERISTICS OF GOOD RESULT STATEMENTS

• Clearly expresses intended Result • Measurable • Uni-dimensional • Realistic

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Some rules to keep in mind when developing results statements

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Avoid overly broad statements. Which specific aspects of the result will project activities emphasize?

State results as future completed actions. The statement should describe the end state that is desired as the outcome of the activity.

Use strong action verbs. This makes results easier to understand: for example, constructed, eradicated, or reduced. Weak action verbs include: enhanced, liaised, supported, or coordinated.

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Some rules to keep in mind when developing results statements (continued)

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Be clear about what type of change is implied. What is expected to change—a situation, a condition, the level of knowledge, an attitude, or a behavior?

Identify precisely who or what should change. Who: Is change expected to occur among individuals, families, groups, communities, regions? What: Income, water quality, laws, regulations, level of conflict?

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Objective: Strengthening basic climate change knowledge, capacity, and decision-making of key stakeholders in two watersheds.

Results Statement: Basic climate change knowledge, capacity, and decision-making of key stakeholders in two watersheds strengthened.

Water resources management in the watershed basins of Santa/Piura Chira improved

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To facilitate action groups

Decision-making process functions effectively

Political will to change water management decision-making generated

To have effective decision-making processes

To avoid conflicts over water

To promote politically balanced decisions

Conflicts over water avoided

Politically balanced decisions made

OBJECTIVES

RESULTS STATEMENTS-

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To promote stakeholder participation in conferences

To generate the political will to change water management decision-making

To increase investment in improved water management

Investment in improved water resources management increased

Political will to change water management decision making generated

Representation of all key stakeholders at conferences secured


OBJECTIVES

RESULTS STATEMENTSI

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Task III : Review/revise Results Statements in a Results Framework

· Check all Results Statements against good characteristics (slide 19) and revise if needed.

· Replace any changed with the new Result Statement cards.

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What is a Results Framework?

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IF .

. . .

. . .

TH

EN

Activities

Activities

Activities

Activities

Result


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What Should a Results Framework do? (ADS 201.3.7.3)

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Capture the key elements of the development hypothesis for achieving an Assistance Objective (AO) (program intent and content)

Clearly state results at AO and Intermediate Result (IR) levels

Provide sufficient detail and causal linkages to diagram the development hypothesis

Use results statements that are measurable and feasible during the planned life of the AO given anticipated resource levels

Incorporate critical assumptions

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Results Framework

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IF .

. . .

. . .

TH

EN

What Else? What Else?

Context?

Assumptions?Risks?

How

?

Why

?

Activities

Activities

Activities

Activities

Result


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FINAL STEPS

1. Articulate causality (cause and effect)

2. Apply the “Necessary and Sufficient Rule”

3. Define critical assumptions

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An example of causality

Jobs created Incomes increased

People trained Studies completed

Experts, equipment, funds

Health conditions improved Livelihoods improved

Inputs/Activities

Outputs

Outcomes

Project Result/Impact

IRs

Project Result

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USAID View of Cause and Effect: (Dev. Hypothesis)

Ultimate customer or customer’s environment impact 1-20 yearsDo not always succeed but produce learning from experienceProduce data on the road of causality traveled to benefiting customers: new

knowledge & impact

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Results Framework The Necessary and Sufficient Rule

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IF .

. . .

. . .

TH

EN

Activities

Activities

Activities

Activities

Result


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What is a Critical Assumption?

A general condition under which the development hypothesis, or strategy for achieving the objective, will hold true.

Critical assumptions …

Are outside the control or influence of USAID and its partners.

May exist from one level of the causal chain of a results framework to the next.

May apply to the entire strategy.

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Water resources management improved

Politically balanced decisions made

Investment in improved water resources management increased

Conflicts over water avoided

Political will to change water management decision making generated

Effective decision making processes function

Stakeholder capacity increasedGood representation at the conference secured

Facilitation of action groups

Promotion of Stakeholder conference

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STATE/USAID INTEGRATED RF(ADS 203.3.8.3 p 36)

PE 2.2.3: Local Government: Decentralization

1. Improved capacity of selected FATA institutions to govern: a) security b) governance c) development 1.1 Comprehensive initiatives in a) security b) governance c) economic development in implementation 1.2 % new development projects using needs based planning 1.3 No. of best practices for Pakistan adopted 1.4 F. # of Sub-national Government entities receiving USG assistance to improve their performance 1.5 F. #individuals who received USG-assisted training, including management skills and fiscal management, to strengthen local government and/or decentralization (W/M)

PE 2.4.1: Civic Participation

2. Increased capacity of CSOs to promote good governance

2.1 Capacity development index scores 2.2 Volume of activity: a) dialogue between government/people b) development activity c) conflict mitigation 2.3 F. # CSOs using USG assistance to improve internal organizational capacity

USAID Goal: FATA governing structures institutionalized G.1. Institutionalization benchmarks (Budget, Secretary Positions, FATA integration into National Planning Process)

Program Area 2.2: Good Governance

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Task IV a: Reviewing a Results Framework

Task:

1. Apply the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at each level or your Results Framework

2. Rearrange Results, add or subtract Results, until satisfied that the logic meets the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at all levels.

3. Place causal arrows.4. Add any critical assumptions.

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Task IV b: Creating a Results Framework

Task:1. Turn your Project Results Statements into a

Results Framework by rearranging your Causal Logic Chain.

2. Apply the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at each level.

3. Rearrange Results, add or subtract Results, until satisfied that the logic meets the Necessary and Sufficient Rule at all levels.

4. Place causal arrows.5. Add any critical assumptions.

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Session 2. Summary• Causal Logic

• Result Statement Criteria

• Necessary and Sufficient Rule

• Critical Assumptions

• State/USAID integrated Results Framework

• The Lord God (Reality) is very complicated, but not downright mean – A. Einstein

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Documents

LIBERIA 1 1 How do you build a Results Framework? DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS