Lexington Huang Zhang Aff Wake Forest Round2

8/9/2019 Lexington Huang Zhang Aff Wake Forest Round2

1/12


2/12

1AC Natural Gas 1.0


3/12

1AC

Contention 1 is the Economy:

Shale is Unsustainable:

a) Economics, and depletin reser!oirs

Gopinath 1" [New Delhi economist writing for Yale Global Online (Deepak, “Shale Energy No !ickSol!tion," Yale Global Online, http#$$yaleglobal%yale%e&!$content$shale'energy'no'!ick'sol!tion)

*he spee& an& scope of the shale'le& energy renaissance in the +S has

ND

-./ billon barrels, e!i0alent to 12 percent of estimate& global oil reso!rces%

b) #emporary reco!eries only mas$ structural instabilities

Ahmed 1% [Dr% Nafee3 hme& is the E4ec!ti0e Director of the 5nstit!te for 6olicy 7esearch 8 De0elopmentan& 9hief 7esearch O:cer at +nitas 9omm!nications where he lea&s on geopolitical risk% (“;ormer


4/12

ND

renewable energyCman!fact!ring !ses I2 percent more renewables than the transportation sector%

anu*acturin loss cascades throuhout the economy

isano and Shih, 1/ [September, 6ro&!cing 6rosperity# Ahy merica Nee&s aan!fact!ring 7enaissance [Jin&le E&ition), arry E% ;iggie 6rofessor of

&ministration at the ar0ar&

Operations anagement +nit in >an!ary ?22K, p% ama3on kin&le)

*he ro!gh an& t!mble of international competition means we sho!l& e4pectin&!stries to come an&

ND

the &ominant so!rce of the lithi!m ion battery cells !se& in electric 0ehicles%

omestic manu*acturin is $ey to o!erall resilience

Ettliner, 11 [ichael, Fice 6resi&ent for Economic 6olicy at the 9enter for merican 6rogress 6rior to Boining the 9enter, he spent si4 years at the Economic 6olicy 5nstit!te &irecting the Economic nalysis an& 7esearch

Network% 6re0io!sly, he was ta4 policy &irector for 9iti3ens for *a4 >!stice an& the 5nstit!te on *a4ation an& Economic6olicy for 11 years% e has also ser0e& on the staH of the New York State ssembly% “*he 5mportance an& 6romise of

merican an!fact!ring Ahy 5t atters if Ae ake 5t in merica an& Ahere Ae Stan& *o&ay",http#$$www%americanprogress%org$wp'content$!ploa&s$iss!es$?211$2.$p&f$man!fact!ring%p&f)

an!fact!ring is critically important to the American economy% ;or generations,L thestrength of

ND

to e0erything from L e4change rate M!ct!ations to tra&e embargoes to nat!ral

&isasters%

/) rices

emand is set to increaseshale can-t meet itthat dri!es up

prices

un$ 1% writer cites >ames alloran, energy analyst Ohio Oil an& Gas ssociation(“Nation=sshale gas boom will lea& to boom in &eman& an& higher prices",http#$$www%cle0elan&%com$b!siness$in&e4%ssf$?21.$2-$nationsPshalePgasPboomPwillPle%htmlQ

9OR+


5/12

Natural as production directly correlates (ith ro(th and

inno!ation 2 prices are $ey

Carey 1/ [>!lie , >!lie % 9arey is an energy economist with Na0igant Economics who pro0i&es cons!ltingan& testifying ser0ices Na0igants !ncon0entional oil an& gas oHerings incl!&e a&0isory ser0ices for strategic

b!siness &ecision analysis, constr!ction risk management, economic an& antitr!st analyses, in0estment banking

an& restr!ct!ring a&0isory ser0ices, an& e4pert ser0ices for &isp!tes an& in0estigations, “ow +ncon0entional Oil

n& Gas 5s S!percharging *he +%S% Economy", http#$$www%forbes%com$sites$energyso!rce$?21?$1?$1-$how'!ncon0entional'oil'an&'gas'is'transforming'the'!'s'economy$)

5ts an e4citing time to be in the energy in&!stry in merica% *he impact

ND

infrastr!ct!re b!il& o!t an& relate& opport!nities (incl!&ing both &irect an& in&irect

BobsQ%

33aintainin lo( prices throuh ade4uate supply is $ey to

loc$ in a massi!e economic bene&tthat al!ani5es $eyindustries

iro and +atner, 1/ [No0ember, 9ongressional 7esearch Ser0ice, Nat!ralGas in the +%S% Economy# Opport!nities for Growth 7obert 6irog Specialist in Energy

Economics ichael 7atner Specialist in Energy 6olicy,

http#$$www%fas%org$sgp$crs$misc$7.?T1.%p&f)

E6panded supply, coupled with lo( nat!ral gas prices, has the potential tocontrib!te

ND

, wo!l& nee& to be change& to a more market'oriente& metho&%

Economic collapse causes competition *or resources and

instability that escalates and oes nuclear

7arris and 8urro(s, 9 [co!nselor in the National 5ntelligence 9o!ncil, the principal &rafter ofGlobal *ren&s ?2?/, @@member of the N59s Rong 7ange nalysis +nit “7e0isiting the ;!t!re# Geopolitical EHects of

the ;inancial 9risis", Aashington !arterly, http#$$www%tw%com$2Iapril$&ocs$2IaprPb!rrows%p&f)

5ncrease& 6otential for Global 9onMict

5ncrease& 6otential for Global 9onMict

Of co!rse,

ND

within an& between states in a more &og'eat'&og worl&%


6/12

ur impact has a stron statistical basis

+oyal 10 [>e&e&iah 7oyal, Director of 9ooperati0e *hreat 7e&!ction at the +%S% Department of Defense,?212, “Economic 5ntegration, Economic Signaling an& the 6roblem of Economic 9rises," in Economics of Aar an&

6eace# Economic, Regal an& 6olitical 6erspecti0es, e&% Gol&smith an&


7/12

1AC

Contention / is 'armin

Emissions are decreasin no( because o* natural as sures

reductions are underreported because natural as is not

percei!ed as ;reen< enouh

+oss 1" (Ree, prof of h!manities an& sciences at Stanfor&, Stanfor& ;e&eral 9re&it +nion 6rofessor of!manities an& Sciences at Stanfor& +ni0ersity, “6rogress in +S on emissions may be tie& to increase& nat!ral gas

pro&!ction", http#$$www%fo4news%com$science$?21-$2-$?1$progress'in'!s'on'emissions'may'be'tie&'to'increase&'nat!ral'gas'pro&!ction$Q

Somewhat hi&&en among the alarming &ata abo!t global warming an& en0ironmental horribles is a signicant

ND

years in or&er to gi0e !s a ghting shot at arresting climate change%U

E!en aressi!e subsidies can-t accelerate rene(ables

adoption===*ossil *uel reliance in the medium term is

ine!itable===only the plan reduces reliance on coal

>eHrey 8all 1/, Scholar in 7esi&ence at Stanfor& +ni0ersity=s Steyer'*aylor 9enterfor Energy 6olicy an& ;inance, ay$>!ne ?21?, “*o!gh Ro0e for 7enewable Energy,"

;oreign Hairs, Fol% I1, No% -, p% 1??'1--

*aking win& an& solar power mainstream will also re!ire better ways to get it to

ND

, renewable power is likely to s!pplement, not s!pplant, con0entional energy%

#(o internal lin$s:

1. irty 8ride 2 natural as is the best bac$up supply *or

unstable rene(ables

eshara$i 1/ V 6rincipal 9ons!ltant an& 9hief Operating O:cer at ;9*S GlobalEnergy 5nc% [Shasha, hol&s an “Nat!ral gas is i&eal bri&ge f!el to green f!t!re," onol!l! Star, September ?W,

?21?, 6ro!est, ccesse& T$K$1.)$$schnall

Since the time of former Go0% George riyoshi, awaii has looke& towar& renewable

ND


8/12

infrastr!ct!re% 7enewables a&0ocates sho!l& recogni3e this f!n&amental harmonybetween these energy so!rces%

>t-s modeled internationally 2 the plan ets China and >ndia on

board 2 it-s about perception o* sustainability 2 shale can-tsol!e

+iley, pro*essor o* enery la(, 1/ (lan, prof at 9ity +ni0ersity in Ron&on, “Shale Gas tothe 9limate 7esc!e", http#$$www%nytimes%com$?21?$2T$1.$opinion$shale'gas'to'the'climate'resc!e%htmlXPr2Q

*he battle against r!naway climate change is being lost% *he green mo0ement an&

the

ND

&ecarboni3e the energy system beyon& shale gas an& into a f!lly renewable

economy%

/. Steel == ?on=term lo( natural as prices $ey to the US steel

industry

@ames 1/ (Ste0e, 9orrespon&ent for 7e!ters in New York, “nalysis# Steelmakerseye gas to c!t costs, &ri0e e4ports" 7e!ters%com, -$1W$1?,

http#$$www%re!ters%com$article$?21?$2-$1W$!s'steel'gas'i&+S% Gibson' 9EO an&presi&ent of the merican 5ron an& Steel 5nstit!te, “+%S% Steelmakers Rea&ing Green,

5n&!strial 7enaissance," I$?-$2I, http#$$www%reliableplant%com$7ea&$?21W.$!s'steelmakers'lea&ing'green,'in&!strial'renaissance$$>


9/12

'armin is real, anthropoenic, and threatens e6tinction ===

pre*er ne( e!idence that represents consensus

7ichar& Schiman 1", en0ironmental writer *he tlantic citing the ;ifth5ntergo0ernmental 6anel on 9limate 9hange, “Ahat Rea&ing Scientists Aant Yo! to

Jnow bo!t *o&ay=s ;rightening 9limate 7eport," *he tlantic,

http#$$www%theatlantic%com$technology$archi0e$?21-$2I$lea&ing'scientists'weigh'in'on'the'mother'of'all'climate'reports$?T22./$

*he polar icecaps are melting faster than we tho!ght they wo!l& seas are rising

ND

%N% report# L B'e ha!e &!e minutes be*ore midniht.B

Adaptation (on-t sol!e 2 a % deree temperature increase (ill

brea$ do(n ci!ili5ation and cause a laundry list o* impacts

+oberts 1" (Da0i&, citing the Aorl&


10/12

1AC 2 lan

lan: #he United States *ederal o!ernment should remo!e

restrictions on and accelerate leasin o* oshore natural as

production o* the uter Continental Shel* (ithin the Gul* o*e6ico, Atlantic cean, and aci&c cean.


11/12

1AC 2 Sol!ency

CS restrictions must be li*ted and *ederal action is $ey

?ieberman [senior policy analyst for Energy an& En0ironment for the eritage ;o!n&ation (


12/12

ther(ise, restrictions crush predictability and timin o*

proFects

7aerty 10 [Specialist in Energy an& Nat!ral 7eso!rces 6olicy at the 9ongressional 7esearch Ser0iceQ >!ne1/, ?212 “O!ter 9ontinental Shelf oratoria on Oil an& Gas De0elopment"

http#$$crs%ncseonline%org$nle$crsreports$12>!l$7.11-?%p&f)

One legacy of congressional moratoria is their impact on the timin o* possibleCS de!elopment

ND

restrictions were defensible in the absence of more permanent alternatives for similar leasing prohibitions

Gas=only leases sol!e8urton [Director of the inerals anagement Ser0ice of the Do5 (>ohnnie !ne ?22W, UREG5SR*5FEE75NG before the 9O5**EE ON 7ESO+79ES +%S% O+SE O; 7E67ESEN**5FES ONE +ND7ED N5N*

9ONG7ESS SE9OND SESS5ON,U)

%7% .KW1 wo!l& amen& the O9S Ran&s ct to allow for gas

ND

be e4tremely &i:c!lt to a&minister, an& potentially e4tremely costly for the go0ernment%

bama-s recent announcement doesn-t sol!e 2 still lac$s

de!elopment and (hich the plan authori5es 2 non=uni4ues A

lin$s

7C H=1 (o!ston 9hronicle, “Seismic rift# Obama splits with en0ironmentalists on tlantic oil e4ploration,"

K$1T$1., http#$$www%ho!stonchronicle%com$b!siness$energy$article$Seismic'rift'Obama'splits'with'en0ironmentalists'/W-1I21%phpQ

*he Obama a&ministration on ;ri&ay green'lighte& a plan to allow the oil in&!stry

ND

year%

timeline%

Documents

Lexington Huang Zhang Aff Wake Forest Round2