Upload
phamminh
View
217
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Leveraging Hype to Predict Adoption Cycle of Emerging Technologies
ByTheo Stratopoulos
University of Waterloo (CS - Big Data Seminar)
November 2016https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2695858
Background - Technology Adoption
Technology adoption cycle (Rogers)
Background - Hype
Gartner Hype Cycle (Technology life cycle)
Objective● Develop a framework for predicting diffusion, specifically the temporal
adoption rate, of an emerging technology by leveraging the hype that
tends to be created with the introduction of a new technology.
Motivation● Number of emerging technologies
○ 236 from 2003-2015
● Implications for stakeholders
○ Adopting firms - duration of competitive advantage
○ Suppliers/vendors and startups - market maturity
○ Investors and venture capitalists - timing of investments
○ Consultants, employees, talent acquisition.
Sources/proxies for Hype● General public or non-interest specific stakeholders e.g.,
○ Web search index (Google trends); magazine and newspaper articles
(LexisNexis), academic articles (Google Scholar)
● Interest specific stakeholders, e.g.,
○ Published books in business and economics as well as technical
(WorldCat); Startups over time (Crunchbase); Patents filed (US
Patent Office); rounds and amount of investments/venture capital
directed towards startups (Crunchbase); Firms implementing (News
releases)
From Hype to Adoption Cycle - PropositionsHype based on non-interest specific stakeholders
● From commencement to peak of hype of the emerging
technology, we have approximately 1 s.d in adoption cycle.
● When adoption is related to external events - e.g., tech or
market bubble - commencement to peak of hype reflects 2 s.d.
Hype based on interest specific stakeholders
● From commencement to peak of hype of the emerging
technology, we have approximately 2 s.d in adoption cycle.
Implementation: Cloud Computing
Cloud Computing: Google Trends & LexisNexis
Cloud Computing: Book Titles
Predictions: Cloud Computing
Years Adopters Cumulative Adoption Competitive Implications Expected Duration
2006-2010 Innovators 2.50% Competitive advantage ~ 12 years
2010-2014 Early Adopters 16% Competitive advantage ~ 8 years
2014-2018 Early Majority 50% Competitive advantage ~ 4 years
2018-2022 Late Majority 84% Parity NA
2022-2030 Laggards 100% Parity NA
The Perfect Storm of Emerging Technologies1. Analytics
2. Big Data
○ Given: Cloud Computing)
3. Internet of Things
○ Given: RFID
4. Blockchain
5. Machine/Deep Learning
From Analytics to Big Data Analytics
While the data analytics hype has peaked the big data hype is still growing.
Big Data and Internet of Things (IoT)
When the IoT reaches mainstream adoption, Big Data will likely grow by several orders of magnitude
Big Data and Blockchain
Blockchain when combined IoT and smart contracts will generate even more data
Big Data and Machine Learning
Dealing with the avalanche of data will motivate the development and adoption of machine learning.
Prepare to ride the perfect storm
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future
Yogi Berra
Predictions: Blockchain● Gartner Hype Cycle
● Google Trends
● Using Book Titles to Compare ERP and Blockchain
● Startups
● Rounds of Funding
Gartner Hype Cycle: Blockchain is at the Peak
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gartnergroup/2016/08/29/track-three-trends-in-the-2016-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies/#3f4e72e47286
Worldwide Google Search Interest in Blockchain. Have we reached the top yet?
Spring 2013
Fall 2013 Winter 2014
Summer 2016
Hype in Google Searches
De Javu● Compare blockchain statement with ERP statement
○ Anderson et al. (2003): In the late 1990s companies treated the ERP
implementation as an opportunity to deal with Y2K and replace
outdated IT systems.
○ Wild et al. 2015 - Financial Times : “ … For big banks, scrambling to
modernise their often outdated IT systems in the face of pressure
from regulators, digital challengers and cyber criminals, blockchain
represents an opportunity to rethink much of what they do.”
ERP: Book Count
Blockchain: Book Count
Startups count (new)
Cryptocurrency Cryptocurrency & Blockchain Blockchain
Funding Rounds for Cryptocurrency Startups
Seed Series A Series B
Funding Rounds for Crypto & Blockchain Start’s
Seed Series A Series B
Funding Rounds for Blockchain Startups
Seed Series A Series B
Predictions: Big Data● Google Trends
● Using Book Titles
Big Data: Google Trends
Big Data: Book Titles in WorldCat
Limitations“. . . In that Empire, the Art of Cartography attained such Perfection that ... the Cartographers Guilds struck a Map of the Empire whose size was that of the Empire, and which coincided point for point with it. The following Generations, who were not so fond of the Study of Cartography as their Forebears had been, saw that that vast map was Useless, and not without some Pitilessness was it, that they delivered it up to the Inclemencies of Sun and Winters. In the Deserts of the West, still today, there are Tattered Ruins of that Map, …” (Borges 1972)