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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
THE CARIBBEANPART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s heat flow and lithospheric-mantle collision-zone inter-actions cause VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASINDISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASINDISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
FLOODS
WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRAD-ATION
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES
ACTIVE VOLCANOES
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
The Caribbean: long referred to as the West
Indies, includes more than 7,000 islands; of these, 13
are independent island countries
ISLANDS POSSESSING MINOR VOLCANIC FEATURES
• Aruuba, Barbados, Bahamas, Bonaire, Cayman Islands, Saint Croix, and Antigua
ISLANDS POSSESSING RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES
• Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, ,Dominica, Montserrat, Saba, Saint Kitts, Saint Lucia, Saint Thomas, Saint John, Tortola, Grenada, Saint Vincent, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Trinidad and Tobago
ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER
THE CARIBBEAN’S VOLCANOES
• The present dozen active volcanoes on or near the Caribbean are restricted to the Lesser Antilles
THE BEST KNOWN HISTORIC ERUPTIONS
• The best known are:oufriere on Guadeloupe, Mount Pelee on Martinique (well-known for its disastrous 1902 eruption and nuee ardente destroying St. Pierre and killing some 28,000 people), Kick'Em Jenny, a submarine volcano north of Grenada, and a series of eruptions beginning in 1995 on Montserrat.
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK RISK
ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK RISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
THE VOLCANO HAZARDS
ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS
VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• VERTICAL PLUME
• ASH AND TEPHRA
• LATERAL BLAST
• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS
VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
• LAVA FLOWS
• LAHARS
• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)
• “VOLCANIC WINTER”
A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION
INTERACT WITH A CARIBBEAN NATION’S COMMUNITIES
A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION
INTERACT WITH A CARIBBEAN NATION’S COMMUNITIES
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., a volcanic eruption,...) intersect at a point in space and time.
Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.
THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.
EXAMPLES OF PAST VOLCANO DISASTERS
MONTSERAT
SOUFRIERE HILLS: 1995 and following
SOUFRIERE HILLS ERUPTION
SOUFRIERE HILLS ERUPTION
SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO, MONTSERAT: 1995 TO PRESENT
• The capital, Plymouth, was buried by ash and eventually evacuated.
• 2,000-3,000 still remain on the island.
IMPACTS
• Numerous evacuations followed by temporary resumptions made normal life impossible.
• Plymouth, which was eventually destroyed, was unable to function effectively as the capital.
THE ALTERNATIVE TO A VOLCANO DISASTER IS
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
THE ALTERNATIVE TO A VOLCANO DISASTER IS
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
CARIBBEAN CARIBBEAN NATION’S NATION’S
COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
CARIBBEAN CARIBBEAN NATION’S NATION’S
COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• VOLCANO HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
VOLCANO RISK VOLCANO RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
VOLCANO DISASTER VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY HAZARDS (PDA’s) IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GEOEYE) THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTIFICATION FOR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES EARLY WARNING IS ESSENTIAL FOR EVAC-UATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
STRATEGIC COLLABORATION FOR BECOMING VOLCANO
DISASTER RESILIENT
STRATEGIC COLLABORATION FOR BECOMING VOLCANO
DISASTER RESILIENT
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• PROTECTION
• CONTROL
• AVIATION SAFETY
• PURPOSE
• PROTECTION
• CONTROL
• AVIATION SAFETY
• TECHNIQUE
• DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH
• LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS
• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION
• TECHNIQUE
• DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH
• LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS
• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• URBAN PLANNING
• EVACUATION
• PURPOSE
• URBAN PLANNING
• EVACUATION
• TECHNIQUE
• MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS; ASH DISTRIBUTION
• COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN
• TECHNIQUE
• MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS; ASH DISTRIBUTION
• COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR OF A SPECIFIC HAZARD
• PURPOSE
• COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR OF A SPECIFIC HAZARD
• TECHNIQUE• MONITORING TO
CONSTRUCT AN ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO; HAZARD ZONES
• TECHNIQUE• MONITORING TO
CONSTRUCT AN ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO; HAZARD ZONES
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES
• PURPOSE
• TEMPORARY SHELTERS
• PURPOSE
• TEMPORARY SHELTERS
• TECHNIQUE
• SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES
• TECHNIQUE
• SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIESEMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE
• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WIND DIRECTION)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS
• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WIND DIRECTION)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO
• COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO
• HAZARD MAPS • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• HAZARD
ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT
• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO
• COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO
• HAZARD MAPS • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• HAZARD
ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT
INSITU AND SATELLITE MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES
.
ALTHOUGH INFREQUENT, A VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INEVITABLE
ALTHOUGH INFREQUENT, A VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INEVITABLE
• ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENT.