MidSchoolMath 1

Students often learn about probability by playing games, but probability has other real life applications, such as planning for the weather and choosing insurance plans. In Red Buffalo, Dallas Sparks is playing a card game against a formidable foe, Ace McCloud. Dallas knows she needs a Red Buffalo to win. Applying the concept of probability will help her determine the likelihood of this happening and what her next move should be. The data provided are a graphic indicating the make up of the deck, along with a reminder of finding the chances of drawing a Red Buffalo.

LESSON: RED BUFFALOHow can Dallas determine the probability of drawing a Red Buffalo?

Red Buffalo

Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables, and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g. “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

The Math SimulatorTM

ImmersionPlay Red Buffalo Immersion video, whole-class. Restate the question: How can Dallas determine the probability of drawing a Red Buffalo?Facilitate classroom discussion; ask students: "What do we need to know?"

•

•

•

1

2 Data & ComputationPrint the Data Artifact, cut into halves, and distribute to students. Allow students work time. Ask students: "Does your answer make sense?"Consider using a sharing protocol leading to mathematical insights and/or highlighting misconceptions. Allow students to revise their work.

•

•

•

•

3 ResolutionPlay Red Buffalo Resolution video, whole-class. Prepare and give brief lecture (Teacher Instruction).

••

Download the Detailed Lesson PlanAvailable on the Teacher Dashboard

+ Simulation TrainerAssign the Simulation Trainer.Use protocols that encourage students to help each other.Use Progress Monitoring to access real-time data for the classroom.Provide individual help for students who are not making progress.

•

•

••

(Use student headphones.)

7.SP.C.8a-bStatistics & Probability

MidSchoolMath 2Red Buffalo

Clicker QuizLaunch the Clicker Quiz, whole-class.

7.SP.C.8a-bStatistics & Probability

Gladys: Show students clear examples of both simple and compound events, so they are able to distinguish one from the other.

Kevin: Model use of tree diagrams, tables and organized lists to help students see advantages and disadvantages of each type. The tree diagram is particularly useful when the experiment can be thought of as occurring in stages.

Megan: Encourage students to use the sample space to calculate compound probabilities instead of jumping immediately to the product rule of probability. If students find the shortcut themselves, let them bring the idea to the class.

KevinSimpson

GladysGraham

MeganLeBleu

Ex. Clicker Quiz #4Standard Math Procedures

Instruction at a Glance

1 Find the sample space for two spins.

1, then 1 2, then 1 3, then 11, then 2 2, then 2 3, then 21, then 3 2, then 3 3, then 3

1 out of 9 times

P(1) • P(3) = • = =

2

3

Count the number of times "1, then 3" occurs in the sample space.

A shortcut for compound events is to multiply the two probabilities.

26

26

19

436

7.SP

Sta

ndar

ds &

Les

sons

7.SP

Ass

essm

ents

7.SP

Dom

ain

Revi

ew

RED BUFFALOHow can Dallas determine the probability of drawing a Red Buff alo?Dallas Sparks is playing another game of cards. She has a full deck, except all the ravens have been removed from the deck leaving only horses and buff alo. She needs a Red Buff alo on her next draw to win.

Help Dallas fi nd the probability of drawing a Red Buff alo this time.You can make a list, table, or tree to help you fi nd the answer.

7.SP.C.8a-b

Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.

Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables, and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g. “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

About this standard

Date PeriodName

MidSchoolMath Red Buff alo 1 of 2

APPLYING THE STANDARD

MidSchoolMath 2 of 2

Date PeriodName

How might this standard appear on a test?

Red Buff alo

Three coins are fl ipped. Fill in the table to show the sample space. Then determine the probability of getting two tails and one head. Explain your answer.

1)

A caterer is providing sandwiches for a luncheon. The sandwiches each have one slice of meat (ham, turkey, or beef ), one slice of cheese (American or Swiss), and one roll (white or whole wheat). Make a tree diagram to show the sample space. Then fi nd the probability of getting a sandwich with ham and Swiss on a whole wheat roll.

2)

In Waco, Texas, in November, approximately 12 out of 30 days are sunny. About half of the days have low temperatures below 50 °F. What is the probability that a November day will be sunny with a low temperature below 50 °F? [If this is event A, you can write P(A) to show this.] Express the answer as a fraction.

3)

Eric is playing a game with two dice. If he rolls doubles, he can take another turn. What is the probability that he will be able to take another turn? In other words, if this is event B, what is P(B)? Express the answer as a fraction.

4)

A bag has equal amounts of green, red, yellow and blue marbles. Half of the marbles are plain, and half have stripes. You win a prize if you draw a yellow marble with stripes. This is event D. What is P(D)? Express the answer as a fraction.

6)

A spinner has eight equal sections, numbered 1–8. If event C is the probability of spinning a 2 and then a 5, what is P(C)? Express the answer as a fraction.

5)

Check out my worked example #5

7.SP

Sta

ndar

ds &

Les

sons

7.SP

Ass

essm

ents

7.SP

Dom

ain

Revi

ew