Lesson Plan - APP Probability

Mental and Oral StarterPupils to revisit the never heard the word grid to check their understanding of the key words.

MainExplain that the purpose of this lesson is to assess their understanding so although they can ask a friend for help they must be honest when they come to self assess at the end of the lesson. Explain that if they find their chosen challenge either too hard or too easy they should swap for a different challenge. Ensure that pupils are aware that they only have this lesson to complete their chosen challenge so they must stay on task and work to the best of their ability to be able to accurately assess themselves.

PlenaryHand out the pink APP sheets. Ask pupils to look at their assessment sheet and colour in all the levels they feel that can achieve independently. Tell pupils that they must complete the ‘Tips / Hints’ box by explaining in their own words the maths they did today. Ask them to also describe any help that they had. Explain to pupils that you will be marking their work and completing the ‘my teacher’s’ boxes. Remind students that next lesson for the starter activity they must come in and look for the question you have set and respond either by answering it or by explaining why the question is too hard for them to answer.

ObjectivesPupils to self assess their understanding of probability. Teacher to carry out an APP assessment using probing questions.

Keywords :Outcome, Event, Sample Space Diagram

Probing Questions

Level 5Find and justify probabilities based on

equally likely outcomes in simple contexts. For example:

The letters of the word REINDEER are written on 8 cards, and a card is chosen at random. What is the probability that the chosen letter is an E?

On a fair die what is the probability of rolling a prime number?

Can you give me an example of what is meant by ‘equally likely outcomes’? 

Level 6Use a sample space diagram to show all outcomes when two dice are thrown together, and the scores added.  One red and one white dice are both numbered 1 to 6. Both dice are thrown and the scores added. Use a sample space to show all possible outcomes.

How do you go about identifying all the mutually exclusive outcomes for an experiment? What strategies do you use to make sure you have found all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for two successive events, for example rolling two dice? How do you know you have recorded all the possible outcomes?

Level 7Recognise that repeated trials result in experimental probability tending to a limit, and that this limit may be the only way to estimate probability. Describe situations where the use of experimental data to estimate a probability would be necessary.

What might be different about using theoretical probability to find the probability of obtaining a 6 when you roll a dice, and using experimental probability for the same purpose? True or falseExperimental probability is more reliable than theoretical probability;Experimental probability gets closer to the true probability as more trials are carried out;Relative frequency finds the true probability.

18 Apr 2023

RAGReflect, Assess, Explain, Communicate

LO To assess your Understanding

Starter Activity

Look back at the Heard the Word Grid that you completed at the start of the unit. Are there any words that you understand now and can describe which you couldn’t before?

18 Apr 2023

RAGReflect, Assess, Explain, Communicate

LO To assess your Understanding

In today’s lesson you will be reflecting upon what you have

learnt in the last few maths lessons.

You will be completing a challenge. You are allowed to look back in your book but you should be working independently..

Key Words Never heard before?

Heard of but not sure what it means?

Know what it means and can explain it in contextJot down your ideas here...

Event

Outcome

Random

Biased / Unbiased

Theoretical Probability

Experimental Probability

Mutually exclusive

Key Words Never heard before?

Heard of but not sure what it means?

Know what it means and can explain it in contextJot down your ideas here...

Event

Outcome

Random

Biased / Unbiased

Theoretical Probability

Experimental Probability

Mutually exclusive

Additional Task

You could add a new task for level 3 where pupils can match pre coloured spinners to statements.

Which is certainWhich is impossible,Which is an even chance….etc

You have been given 4 colours; Red, Blue, Green and yellow

Spinner 1 - Yellows must be most likely to win

Spinner 2- 2 colours are equally likely to win

Spinner 3- Blues are least likely to win

Spinner 4 - Reds can never win

You have been given 4 colours; Red, Blue, Green and yellow

Spinner 1 - Yellows must be most likely to win

Spinner 2- 2 colours are equally likely to win

Spinner 3- Blues are least likely to win

Spinner 4 - Reds can never win

Level 4 Challenge

Using at least 3 colours, colour the spinners so that the statements in the table are true. Then move to level 5. If you are not ready to move to level 5 then1.) Ask your teacher for some more blank spinners and colour them differently so that the statements are still true?2.) Make up some statements of your own and colour the spinners to make the statements true.

Level 5 Challenge

After you have coloured in the spinners describe the probability of getting each colour as a fraction.

For example - Spinner 1(P) Red = (P) Blue = (P) Green = (P) Yellow =

Level 6Challenge

Draw a sample space diagram to show all the possible outcomes when spinners 1 and 2 are spun together. What is the probability of :-a)getting two colours the sameb)getting at least one bluec)getting a blue and a yellowd)not getting a red

Level 7 Challenge

Answer the following questions:-What might be different about using theoretical probability to find the probability of obtaining a 6 when you roll a dice, and using experimental probability for the same purpose? True or falseExperimental probability is more reliable than theoretical probability?Experimental probability gets closer to the true probability as more trials are carried out?

Blank Spinners

To be a better learner I could................

Less Helpful More Helpful

Work Faster / do more Stay on task.Be neater Clearly show my working out.Try the harder ones Put my hand up to ask a question

when I don’t understand.

Talk less Make sure that when I am talking to the people on my table, I am talking about the Maths.

Listen more when the teacher is talking.

Contribute answers and questions during the explanation part of the lesson.

level Probability Skills

7 I understand the difference between experimental and theoretical probability. I can use relative frequency as an estimate and to compare the outcomes of experiments.

6 I can complete a sample space diagram and use it to calculate probabilities.

5 I can describe the probability of an event happening using a fraction, decimal or percentage.

4 I can use I the language of probability to describe the probability of an event occurring.

3 I can use the probability words impossible, certain and even chance to describe the probability of an event occurring.

Top Tips / Hints ......

My teachers comment ......

My teachers question is ......

My answer is ......

Plenary

Complete the Pink Assessment Sheet.Fold it in half and glue it into your book.Answer the question that you have been set.