Lesson 4: Sports betting

Lesson 4: Sports betting

Lesson goal:

To determine the chance of winning if the payout is high.

Through activities, simulations and discussions, you will learn that:

• there is a difference in potential winnings if a betting agency is involved

or if it is not

• higher payouts are matched with lower probabilities of winning.

Through this lesson we are going to do the following:

Tune in – background information

Class simulations:

• Even chances: use a coin or sports betting agency spreadsheet – Sports betting

(other) tab

• One chance in four: use a pack of cards or sports betting agency spreadsheet –

Sports betting (other) tab

• Soccer matches: use sports betting agency spreadsheet – Sports betting (soccer) tab

We will require the following worksheets:

• Student record sheet: Sports betting simulation

• Student worksheet 13 Sports betting

Even chances – class simulation

Two equally good teams, Matildas and USA

Two students

One student bets $1 on the Matildas

The other bets $1 on USA

1. What is the probability of each team winning?

2. What is the payout for each team?

3. What might the payouts be if a betting agency that kept 5%

was involved?

Even chances – screen shot of sports betting

agency spreadsheet

One chance in four – class simulation

Diamond or not diamond?

One card chosen from a pack

Four students

One student bets a $1 on a diamond

Three students bet a $1 each on not a diamond

1. What is the probability of a diamond ‘winning’?

2. What is the probability of a diamond ‘losing’ (not being selected)?

3. How much should the payout be for a diamond win?

4. How much should each of the other three students be paid if a diamond loses?

5. What payouts (in dollars) should be given for diamond vs not diamond?

6. What might the payouts be if a betting agency that keeps 15% was involved?

One chance in four – screenshot of sports betting

agency spreadsheet

Soccer matches – class simulation

Australia vs Japan

20 students

$10 each to bet

15 bet on Australia

5 bet on Japan

No students bet on a draw

1. Does that mean that Australia is three times more likely to win than Japan?

2. Does that mean that Australia has three chances out of four of winning,

a probability of ¾?

Record sheet

Soccer matches – screenshot of sports betting

agency spreadsheet

Worksheet

Key message

Higher payouts are matched with lower probabilities of winning.

Review your understanding:

1. Do you agree with this statement? Explain your answer.

2. How would you explain the meaning of this statement to someone else who didn’t

understand its meaning?

3. Why would a betting agency offer a large payout on something that is unlikely to

happen?

4. Explain one other thing that you have learnt in this lesson.