Lesson 3 ODOTAnalysis & Assessment

Analysis & Assessment

Learning Outcomes

• As part of a small group, apply the two-part analysis by generating exposure- response profiles to predict risk to REC sustainability

• Distinguish between analysis and assessment

Analysis

&

Assessment

AnalysisAnalysisScopingScoping EvaluateEvaluate

Identify useful

information

2. Resource-Focused Analysis

Conduct:

1. Action-Focused Analysis

Document uses and

limits of the information

Analysis 7 AssessmentMore Reading!

Fritiofson v. Alexander

Analysis & Assessment

The Fritiofson v. Alexander Five Part Test:

1. What is the geographic area affected by the project?

2. What are the resources affected by the project?

3. What are the other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable actions that have impacted these resources?

4. What were those impacts?

5. What is the overall impact on these various resources from the accumulation of the actions?

Fritiofson v. Alexander

AssessmentUseful Information

Information should support informed decisions

• What is relevant to the decision makers?

• What is relevant to the public and stakeholders?

• What is the most efficient and effective means of collecting that information?

• How will this information be used to foster a better decision?

Two-Part Analytic Question

To inform decisions, environmental impact analyses must be broken into two-parts:

• What effect does the action have on specific resources?

• i.e., action-focused• What does that effect mean from the

perspective of the resource itself?• i.e., resource-focused

Assessment

Scoping

REC’s

• Selecting RECs for analyses

• Relevant to the Decision and Decision-makers?

• Provides the most useful information?

• Accepted as surrogate or indicator?

• Relevance to the decision at hand?

• Time and cost effective

AssessmentScoping REC’s

• HydrologySurface, Groundwater, Soil water

• AirAir Quality, Visibility

• BiotaRepresentative, Unique, Imperiled

Species and Communities; Habitats

AssessmentScoping REC’s

• Socioeconomics• Education Services • Traffic and Transportation• Human Health • Public and Emergency Services• Community Cohesion• Economic Stability

AssessmentScoping REC’s

• Noise ImpactsHumans, Wildlife, Aesthetic

• Visual ImpactsViewsheds, Aesthetics,

• Cultural ImpactsArcheological, Historical, Architectural

AssessmentModels of REC’s

Uses of Models: • Transparency and Clarity;• Repeatable Analysis;• Identification of Effective Mitigation

Strategies;• Acknowledgement of Uncertainties• Two-Part Analysis

AssessmentScoping for RFFAs

• Other transportation projects …• … airport, freight, and transit • Other Federal agency activities • … approved NEPA documents or

projects under study • Activities in approved land use and

development plans• Major private projects• Reasonably foreseeable

Analysis

Two-Part Analysis of Effects

Action-Focused

• HØ – 1 = effects are reasonably detectable

Resource-Focused

• HØ – 2 = effects contribute to factors that shift the REC across the threshold of sustainability into a new dynamic state

Analysis

Looking for Degradation

• Sustainability and Thresholds • Resilience and Internal Controls• Most Probable State, Dynamic Equilibrium,

Regime • Feedbacks and Adjustments• Cross-scale interactions

Analysis

Action-Focused

• exposure-response profile

• cause-effect

Resource-Focused

• Sustainability and optimize mitigation

Mitigation

• alternate exposure – response profile

• offset other agent’s effects

• Cut opportunity costs

Analysis

What are the Consequences, anyways?

Action-Focused• Develop exposure-response profileResource-Focused• Assess sustainabilityMitigation• Alternate exposure – response profile• Alternate sustainability outcomeReduce Risk and Uncertainty• Coherence• Monitoring and Adaptive Management

Assessment & Analysis Reminder on ICI Nomenclature

►Proposed action or alternative under review must have a direct and/or indirect effect on a specific resource for the proposal or alternative to exert a cumulative influence

►If no direct and/or indirect effect to a specific resource is suspected, there is no need to consider cumulative effects to that resource

Analysis

• Assess REC’s Exposure

• Assess REC’s Response

• Assess Risk from Exposure-Response Profile

AnalysisAction-Focused

• Generate Exposure-Response Profiles

• Evaluate the Profiles for Input to the Resource-Focused Effects Analysis

AnalysisAction-Focused

Generate Exposure-Response Profiles

Use qualitative and quantitative techniques to estimate the magnitude and intensity of potentially significant action-focused effects, and to enhance comparative descriptions of future conditions

Analysis

• Risk analyses integrate exposure and response profiles to estimate the risk the Action poses to REC (especially the sustainability of the REC)

Analysis

• Exposure means co-occurrences or interactions between REC (reduced) and (deconstructed elements of) the proposed Action

• multiple orders: first, second, …

• multiple scales: spatial and temporal

Response Assessment

• Response of Resources to exposure

• This may be serial or multi-faceted exposure-responses

Analysis

Analysis

• Exposure will tell us which individuals from particular Resource of Interest are likely to be exposed, over what area and time, and with what intensity

• Response will tell us what will happen to those particular Resources of Interest upon exposure

Analytic

Framework

• Risk analyses consider the response profile, along with other stressors, to assess the REC’s and system’s resilience to perturbation and the potential of these stressors to push the REC and system across a threshold to an alternate structure and form.

AnalysisAction-Focused

Assess the Consequences

• Does exposure-response profile provide sound input to resource-focused part of effects analysis?

• Is the information useful for decision-making?

• Identify unacceptable exposure-response profiles or levels of uncertainty (mitigate?)

Analysis Resource-Focused

• What is the Overall Impact from the accumulation of actions?

AnalysisResource-Focused

• Identify the important exposure-response profiles or cause-and-effect relationships between the REC and proposed project

• Determine the magnitude and significance of cumulative effects

AnalysisResource-Focused

• Consider mitigation to reduce total effects, including adding new alternatives

• Monitor and, if warranted, Adapt Management

AnalysisResource-Focused

Response Assessment

• Sustainability

• “Regulatory” Thresholds– Administrative: Statute, Rule, or Guidance – Community Standard or Perceived – “Natural”

Poor Word Choice: “Regulatory” does not limit

AnalysisResource-Focused

• Thresholds

• Resilience

• Trends

• Sustainability

(for complex systems, consider adjustments and feedbacks, too)

SustainabilitySystem Response

• Sustainability and Thresholds • Resilience and Internal Controls• Most Probable State, Dynamic Equilibrium,

Regime • Feedbacks and Adjustments• Cross-scale interactions

Trend of Resource Attribute

Trend of Resource Attribute

Trend of Resource Attribute

Trend of Resource Attribute

Trend of Resource Attribute

Trend of Resource Attribute

Analysis & AssessmentChanging & Avoiding Outcomes

• Mitigation

• Monitoring

• Adaptive Management

Analysis & AssessmentDocumentation

• Draw Conclusions

– What Do We Know (Supported by Data)?– What Do We Not Know (Assumptions and

Extrapolations)?– Is What We Do Not Know Important For the

Decision (Risk and Uncertainty)?

Analysis & AssessmentExercise

Model REC and projectID “sustainable” for this RECDescribe Interactions of REC and project

Action-FocusedExposure-Response Profile

Resource-FocusedRisk to sustainability

Identify Mitigation Options

Monitoring or Adaptive Management to reduce Uncertainty

Analysis & Assessment

Review

• As part of a small group, apply the two-part analysis by generating exposure- response profiles to predict risk to REC sustainability

• Distinguish between analysis and assessment