Leonid Statistics Leonid Statistics ProjectProject

Leonid Statistics Leonid Statistics ProjectProject

November 18-19, 2003November 18-19, 200323:30-01:3023:30-01:30

Background on Leonids• Earliest recorded sighting 9/28/901• Debris from the tail of comet Temple-

Tuttle• The 1833 Leonid meteor storm was

observed and recorded by various Sioux tribes in the region around North and South Dakota.

Estimation TimeHow many meteors do you think will fall

that night? Sometimes 5000 meteors fall in an hour and sometimes 20 meteors fall in an hour. Make a guess of how many meteors you think will fall in one hour. Write your number in the meteor sheet provided. Later design a graph that shows all the guesses that your fellow scientists in your class made. Next class we will find out who had the best guess!

Gathering Data• Work with a partner• No more than 3 working together• Face East

– Do NOT bunch up– Do NOT wander off

• Use the data sheet provided to collect all of your observations

What to Bring• Warm clothing (lawn chair if you

like)• Clipboard or hard surface to write

on• Pencil/pen to write with• Timing device

– Watch– Kitchen timer

Estimations• You will need to estimate cloud cover

– 10% cloud cover– 20% cloud cover– Etc.

• You will need to estimate star magnitude– Locate the constellation Leo in the eastern

sky– Note the magnitude of the dimmest star

you can see

Star MagnitudesStar NameStar Name Magnitude Magnitude

• Alpha Leo 1.35

• Beta Leo 2.14

• Gamma Leo 3.80

• Nu Leo 5.26

Where to LookThis represents the view from mid-northern latitudes at about 2:00 a.m. local time around November 19. Because of Earth's rotation, this view will roughly be the same for every mid-northern latitude location in the world. The red line across the bottom of the image represents the horizon.

Location

We will meet in front of Nevins Hall located at Latitude 30.84676 degrees North and Longitude 83.28743 degrees West

Some Interesting Observations

GalaxiesGalaxies

References• Gary W. Kronk's Comets &

Meteor Showers Web Site (http://comets.amsmeteors.org/)

Alternate Assignment• Activity

– You will need an unopened bag (any size, but not more than a 1 pound bag) of M&M’s (peanut or chocolate) or Skittles (any flavor), which ever you like better. Do NOT get a “holiday” bag as these have a limited amount of colors in them.

– Do NOT eat any of the candy until have completed the entire activity

Data Collection• Estimate how many pieces of

candy you think are in the bag BEFORE you open the bag.

• After opening the bag and determining how many different colors there are, but BEFORE you start counting, write down each color and estimate how many of each color you believe will be in the bag.

Organizing the data• Frequency line plot• Bar graph• Line graph• Mean, Median, Mode, and Range

Estimation Error• Estimation error is the difference

between what was estimated and what actually happened.

where E = estimated count and T = actual count

ErrorT

ET %%100

Next Class•See you Tuesday at 11:30 PM

•Or for sure next class!•Have a wonderful holiday break!