Left Margin Column width of 3 column layout Column width ......Nexant provides global knowledge and regional expertise in Energy and Chemicals Industry February 2019 5 Nexant E&CA

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Impacts of feedstocks on the surfactants value chain –

what’s new?

Eric Hudson, Managing Consultant

Caleb Chong, Consultant

6th February 2019

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Agenda

1. Introduction to Nexant

2. Feedstock prices and impact on the Surfactants value chain

3. Ethylene Oxide issues/ changes in perspective

4. Bio-EO – is this the future?

5. Summary

1 King’s Arms Yard

London

EC2R 7AF

United Kingdom

T: +44 20 7950 1593

E. [email protected]

Energy & Chemicals Advisory

Caleb Chong

Consultant

2

1 King’s Arms Yard

London

EC2R 7AF

United Kingdom

T: +44 20 7950 1564

M. +44 77 8627 6317

E. [email protected]

Energy & Chemicals Advisory

Eric W Hudson

Managing Consultant

February 2019

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1. Introduction

3

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Nexant provides expertise across the energy and chemicals value chain

Grid Management

Distribution

Software

Energy Efficiency

Demand Side

Management

Renewables

• Solar

• Biomass

• Municipal Waste

• Wind

• Clean Coal

Gas Monetization

LNG

Gas Pipelines

Regulatory

Frameworks

Petroleum Refining

Storage &

Distribution

Biofuels

Oxygenates

Coal to Liquids

Gas to Liquids

Base Oils

Lubricants

Ammonia

Urea

Melamine

Ammonium

Nitrates

Phosphate & NPK

Fertilizers

Methanol

Formaldehyde

Acetyls

Other syngas

derivatives

POWER &

RENEWABLES GAS

C1 CHEMICALS &

FERTILIZERS DOWNSTREAM OIL

PETROCHEMICALS

& POLYMERS

INTERMEDIATE &

SPECIALITY CHEMICALS

Energy Chemicals

Olefins

Aromatics

Polyolefins

Vinyls

Styrenics

Polyesters

Polyamides

Acrylates

Rubbers

Other olefin and

aromatic

derivatives

Surfactants

Oleochemicals

Engineering &

Speciality

Polymers

Coatings,

Adhesives,

Sealants &

Elastomers

(CASE)

Polyurethanes

Resins

Biochemicals

Speciality & Fine

Chemicals

4 February 2019

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Nexant provides global knowledge and regional expertise in Energy and

Chemicals Industry

5 February 2019

Nexant E&CA has over 120 knowledgeable and responsive consultants that focus

on energy and chemicals, providing global coverage and regional expertise

San Francisco

Houston

London

Bahrain

Tokyo

Seoul

Kuala Lumpur

Bangkok

White Plains, N.Y.

Buenos Aires

La Paz

Rio de Janeiro

Washington, DC

Headquarters

Main Offices

Representative Offices

Project Offices

Pretoria

Pune

Beijing

Shanghai

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2. Feedstock prices and impact on the Surfactants value chain

6

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Feedstocks for Surfactants

Versus

Formulators Synthetic

Detergent Alcohol

Ethylene

Synthetic Alcohol

Sulfates (AS)

Alcohol Ether

Sulfates

(AES) Coconut Oil

Palm Kernel

Oil

Fatty Alcohol

Sulfates

Fatty Alcohol

Ethoxylates

n-Paraffin

& Benzene

Kerosene LAB Linear Alkylbenzene

Sulfonates (LAS)

Fatty

Alcohol

Synthetic Feedstock Natural Feedstock

+EO

7 February 2019

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Consumption of crude oil products into chemicals has increased

gradually, but remains a minor application compared to energy use

Global Consumption of Crude Oil Products by Application

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Mill

ion

tons

of o

il eq

uiva

lent

Energy use Chemical/petrochemical Other non-energy use

Source: IEA Energy Balances & Statistics 2015

11%

5%

85%

8 February 2019

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Palm Kernel Oil (PKO), the main feedstock for natural surfactants in the personal care business,

is essentially a by-product of palm oil production and is a relatively small end-use (~10%)

Global Demand for Palm Fruit

9

Used in Detergent Alcohols

Mainly edible oils and biofuels

February 2019

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Crude Oil Price Volatility – what is the new norm?

Global benchmark crude oil pricing

2019/20 ??

10

“Forecasting is a

complicated thing.

Especially when it

comes to forecasting

future.” Viktor Chernomyrdin

February 2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Do

llars

pe

r ba

rrel

Brent FOB Sullom Voe Dubai FOB Fateh WTI FOB Cushing

N:\00235\9.1.5\QBAT4

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Many diverse factors influence supply and demand for crude oil, consolidating

to drive price reductions

Weak economic environment – Brexit impact?

Strengthening US dollar

Slowing demand growth and accelerated supply

(Iran)

Lack of adherence to OPEC production quotas

Energy efficiency initiatives

Switch to renewable, low carbon fuels

Substitution by low cost gas or coal

Subsidy removal in key markets (e.g. Arab Gulf)

Strong economic environment

US dollar weakness

Low inventories

Political uncertainty, year of supply disruption

Limited spare capacity

Growing need for OPEC oil supplies

Disciplined adherence to OPEC production

quotas

Higher Prices

Lower Prices

Weakening Demand

or Lengthening Supply

Strengthening Demand

or Shortening Supply

11 February 2019

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Each feedstock to formulators has its pressures

12

Supply/demand of palm oil

Price of competing vegetable oils

Weather patterns

Import policies

Taxation/ import duty changes

Consumer pressures

February 2019

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRxqFQoTCNu-w8qVpscCFYnbGgod_BsHrg&url=https://www.pinterest.com/tylerteeter9/orangutang/&ei=IJzMVduuJom3a_y3nPAK&bvm=bv.99804247,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNFK8zhjlF49P2JIrpBqLm129-6KxQ&ust=1439559067764461

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3. Ethylene Oxide issues

13

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Simplified Typical Surfactants Value Chain

14

ALCOHOLS\

SULFONATED

FEEDSTOCK SUPPLIERS

INTEGRATED PRODUCERS

SULFONATORS

SOAPERS

HOUSEHOLD

FORMULATIONS DISTRIBUTION

RETAILERS

CRUDE OIL

NATURAL GAS Ethylene Oxide (EO)

LINEAR

ALCOHOLS

ETHOXYLATED

ALCOHOLS

Natural or Synthetic

NATURAL OILS

February 2019

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15

The Chemical Producer is caught between the oil/petchems players and the big

brand consumer marketers

EO Case Study

Crude Oil Refinery Cracker Chemical

Producer Formulators

Branded

Seller

Crude Oil

Refinery

Cracker

Branded Seller Continual downward

pressure from consumers

based on “green” factors,

Climate Change, Carbon

footprint

-Experience curve

- Macro Economic conditions

Ingredient

Supplier Cost pressure -

producers moving

to China. Use of

inventory to

anticipate price

increases and

declines, to

maintain margins

Price Pass Through Achievable ? Resistance to Price Pass Through?

Consumer

There are many

factors at play,

including green,

sustainability,

RSPO, massive

resistance from

retailers,

formulator’s

flexibility and

consumer trends

Chemical Producers are increasingly influenced by consumer pressures

February 2019

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Currently synthetic producers are gaining market share from natural producers. Naturals still

dominate personal care applications due to end user consumer pressure

16 February 2019

Synthetic

Natural

Synthetic

Natural

Idle Capacity

Personal Care

Synthetic

Natural

Globally installed capacity is split 75/25 between natural and

synthetic based plants

25 percent of detergent alcohol demand is consumed by

the personal care sector

Supply: 4.5 million tons Demand: 2.4 million tons

No

n –

per

son

al c

are

EO Case Study – Detergent Alcohols – Inter-material competition

Detergent alcohol producers

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17 February 2019

The relative pricing between natural and synthetic feedstocks dictates the formulator’s demand,

except where the end-use applications are dependent on consumer pressures

EO Case Study – Detergent Alcohols

Market Demand

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cru

de, d

olla

rs p

er b

arre

l

PK

O, d

olla

rs p

er to

n on

the

day

Palm kernel oil ($/ton) Crude oil ($/bbl)

Synthetic Natural

1.8 million tons

Performance is often the key differentiator, not just the price

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Others

Ethanolamines

Ethoxylates

Mono-ethyleneglycol (MEG)

Global Ethylene Oxide and Downstream Markets by end-use

18 February 2019

Ethylene

Ethylene

Oxide

(EO)

Coatings,

Lubricants,

Pharmaceuticals

etc.

Gas scrubbing

Surfactants

PET

Fibre / Bottle

Major application

CO2, H2S

Global Ethylene Oxide Demand, 2018

(volume – 30.6 million tons)

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Global ethylene oxide demand (2018)

In Western Europe and America, demand for EO is more varied unlike other

regions which are heavily focused on MEG

19 February 2019

Areas with access to relatively cheap feedstock (the Middle East) or high PET demand (Asia Pacific) have

sparked new construction

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

North America (4.8 million tons)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

South America (0.4 million tons)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Western Europe (2.9 million tons)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

C&E Europe (0.5 million tons)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Asia (14.5 million tons)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Middle East & Africa (7.5 million tons)

0%100%

2017

Others

Glycol ethers

Ethanolamines

Ethoxylates

MEG

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Global Ethylene Oxide Capacity Additions by region, 2015-2020

No EO capacity additions in Europe in recent years but this is likely

to change with INEOS and BASF announcements

20 February 2019

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mill

ion

tons

North America South America Western Europe Central Europe

Eastern Europe Middle East Africa Asia Pacific

EO recent capacity addition announcements by INEOS and BASF in

Western Europe are not shown in the above list.

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Capacity additions in Western Europe will be brownfield and likely

to continue to be so in the near term

21 February 2019

BASF

In September 2018, BASF announced a stepwise capacity increase of its production plant

at Verbund, Antwerp for alkoxylation. The first additional capacities will be available from

as early as the 3rd quarter of 2018. Overall, the company plans to step up their alkoxylation

capacities at the Antwerp site by up to 25 % by 2021.

INEOS

Increasing ethylene supply from INEOS supports the outlook for EO production in Western

Europe. The is made possible because of their $2 billion investment in their shipping

program for importing ethane and LPG from the U.S. in large quantities.

In the same month, INEOS also announced EO capacity expansions in Antwerp and

Lavera in WE (total €200 million) and in North America (270 000 tons per year).

A sixth alkoxylation unit in Antwerp was scheduled to start up at the end of 2018, along

with a 2,000 tonne expansion of ethylene oxide (EO) storage capacity at the site.

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Global Ethylene Oxide Capacity Additions by region, 2018-2023

(000 tons per year)

Beyond 2020, interest in bringing new EO capacity appears to continue to be

focused in North America, Middle East and Western Europe

22 February 2019

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Process

North America

Lotte Chemical Corporation Lake Charles, LA - - - - 560 560 560 Integrated EO/MEG

MEGlobal Freeport, TX - - 302 600 600 600 600 Integrated EO/MEG

Sasol Lake Charles, LA - 25 300 300 300 300 300 Direct oxidation

Asia Pacific

CSPC Huizhou, Guangdong - 505 505 505 505 505 505 Integrated EO/MEG

Sinopec Zhanjiang Zhanjiang, Guangdong - - - 250 250 250 250 Direct oxidation

Sinopec Zhanjiang Zhanjiang, Guangdong - - - 320 320 320 320 Integrated EO/MEG

Petronas Pengerang - - - 480 480 480 480 Integrated EO/MEG

Middle East

Bushehr Petrochemical Co Bandar Assaluyeh - - - - 440 440 440 Integrated EO/MEG

NPC (Iran) Hamadan - - - - 120 120 120 Direct oxidation

SABIC Al Jubail - - - - - 560 560 Integrated EO/MEG

Western Europe

BASF Antwerp - - * * 112 112 112 Direct oxidation

INEOS Antwerp and Lavera - - * * * * * Direct oxidation

*Capacity size addition not announced

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So where will ethylene oxide supply be based?

23 February 2019

Ethylene

Oxide

Close to

Cheap

Ethylene?

Close to

Derivative

Plants /

Markets?

Key benefits

Low cost

ethylene

Key downsides

Likely situated

far away from

certain markets

Key benefits

More responsive

to market

changes

Key downsides

High EO freight

costs

Section Title Area

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0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000

North America Western Europe Middle East Rest of the World China

EO capacity additions are attractive in regions with low cost

ethylene feedstock OR….

24 February 2019

Source: Nexant

Global Ethylene Cumulative Capacity (tons)

Eth

yle

ne C

ash

Co

st

($ p

er

ton

)

Global Ethylene Cost Curve (2018)

0

1st quartile

0

Western Europe

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Global PET Demand, 2018

(volume – 87.3 million tons)

In regions where the key market, PET, is located – i.e. Asia Pacific

25 February 2019

Asia Pacific 83%

North America

7%

Western Europe

4%

Middle East 3%

South America

2%

Eastern Europe

1%

Central Europe 0.3%

Regional PET Demand Growth

(percent volume growth)

0 2 4 6 8 10

Western Europe

Asia Pacific

Middle East

North America

South America

Global Average

2000-2018 2018-2025

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4. Alternative Sources of EO –

Is Bio-EO the future?

26

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Location of some Ethylene Oxide Plants in the USGC – Croda being

an exception as bio-based and not in USGC

27 February 2019

* Ongoing investment decisions

Formosa Plastics

Point Comfort

Dow/DuPont

Seadrift

Dow/DuPont

Taft

Huntsman

Port Neches

Lotte / Sasol*

Lake Charles

Eastman

Longview, TX

Croda,

Delaware

Equistar

Bayport

BASF

Geismar

Indorama

Clear Lake

Petrochemical-based

Bio-based

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Not all EO producers and ethoxylators in the U.S. are integrated and

thus face increasing freight costs for EO delivery

28 February 2019

Alkoxylator’s

Competitive

Arena

EO is increasingly difficult to ship by rail

Flammable and highly reactive, therefore

costly to ship

EO railcars require special safety precautions

Supply of railcars is limited and regulations

have become more restrictive

EO transportation cost from US Gulf to NE

EO transportation costs have increased 10-

20% every 6 months

For non-US Gulf players, freight represents

around 30% of the EO cost

Average EO content in an ethoxylated product

is ~65%

100

300 440

2002 2014 2017

Freight rate

US$/ton of EO

EO Stranded ethoxylators

USGC EO production

EO

EO Transportation

Source: Oxiteno

Specialty surfactants – what strategy could they adopt?

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Producers that focus more on personal care market such as Croda

have a high incentive to go fully bio-based

29 February 2019

Ethoxylates

Ethylene

Bio

Ethanol

Ethylene

Oxide

+O2

+O2 -H2O

Naphtha/ Natural gas

Biomass

Bio

Ethylene

Bio-based EO means ethoxylation can now increase the renewable content of materials

Bio-based EO is equivalent in performance to synthetic material

No sacrifice in performance for choosing the more renewable material!

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“Green EO” has some long-commercialized steps with low

technical risks

30 February 2019

CO2

Sugarcane* uses

sun’s energy to

metabolize

CO2

CH3-CH2OH

CH2=CH2 Green EO

In the distillery,

sugar juice is

fermented and

distilled

Dehydration

transforms ethanol to

ethylene

Ethylene is

oxidised to EO

EO to surfactants

*Sugarcane is shown, but any ethanol

will suffice — fermentation, algae based,

or thermochemical

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.techshout.com/images/sunlight.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.techshout.com/mobile-phones/2007/05/motorola-patents-self-powered-solar-lcd-display/&h=300&w=300&sz=26&hl=en&start=6&usg=__WSHQaEamn-IOcxUq6lg7VCBirhE=&tbnid=0ehNPSuTJFWSEM:&tbnh=116&tbnw=116&prev=/images?q=sunlight&gbv=2&hl=en&sa=G

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100% renewable

100% bio-based*

Performance identical to petro-based options

Lower carbon footprint than petro chemically derived

ingredients

USDA BioPreferred Program 3rd party certification

RSPO Supply Chain Certified via Mass Balance**

* Calculated using prEN16785-2 which is to be validated by carbon 14 testing (ASTM D6866)

** Products containing palm derivatives

New ECO Ethoxylates

31 February 2019

Source: Croda

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Impacts of Feedstocks on Surfactants value chain

Conclusions

32 February 2019

Western Europe

United States

Bio EO

Global

Developments

- Some investments for in-house majors are being made for EO/Ethoxylation

- Plenty of activity on “shale gas” ethane crackers – will this continue?

Many could invest in MEG and EO derivatives such as Sasol, Oxiteno and

several others

- Business case to make a Bio EO plant in situ, is this specific to the speciality

nature of the Croda business? Could others follow?

- Ethoxylates remain the key non-MEG EO derivative, leading investment in

almost all areas.

- Higher crude oil prices, and falling prices for natural oils impacted on the

synthetic versus natural ethoxylates equation in 2018.

- US producers still benefit from low-cost ethylene, while select synthetic

alcohol ethoxylators in Europe are building for internal use. The bulk of natural

alcohol production in Asia became more competitive.

Regulatory/

Consumer

Pressures

Consumer

preferences for

“greener” alternatives

bio based

transparency, RSPO,

sustainability issues

may cause a rethink to

portfolio management

for EO suppliers

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Nexant, Inc.

San Francisco

New York

Houston

Washington

London

Bahrain

Bangkok

Shanghai

Kuala Lumpur

www.nexant.com

1 King’s Arms Yard,

London, EC2R 7AF

Telephone: +44 20 7950 1600

Facsimile: +44 20 7950 1550

www.nexant.com

“This report (“Report”) was prepared by Nexant Ltd (“NEXANT”), for the use of Client in its consideration

of whether and how to proceed with the subject of this Report.

Except where specifically stated otherwise in the Report, the information contained herein was prepared

on the basis of information that is publicly available or was provided by the CLIENT or by a third party,

and the information has not been independently verified or otherwise examined to determine its

accuracy, completeness or financial feasibility.

Neither NEXANT, CLIENT nor any person acting on behalf of either assumes any liabilities with respect

to the use of or for damages resulting from the use of any information contained in this Report.

NEXANT does not represent or warrant that any assumed conditions will come to pass. This Report is

current as of the date herein and NEXANT has no responsibility to update this Report.

This Report is integral and must be read in its entirety.

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